Maybe part of it is just bad luck?

[Erick*]

Anyone into advanced hockey statistics? Whoever is probably knows what PDO is. This year, we've been the unluckiest team in hockey based on the metric.

The way it works is you calculate a team's shooting % and a team's save %. Combined, the # should average out to 100.0.

I saw this on the Rangers GDT and found it interesting since no one is even close to being as bad as us.

http://www.extraskater.com/teams/on-ice?type=total&sort=pdo

I don't fully buy into it, but I do somewhat. Basically, over a larger sample, you'd have to expect our team shooting % to be better than 5.1%.

We also have a terrible .883 save%. Even if you look at just Markstrom and Scott Clemmensen and compare their save %'s to their career save %'s, we come to the conclusion that the poor start could be due to just a small sample. And, of course, we now have Tim Thomas who's better than those two, anyway.

It's not a perfect stat, but it's one worth monitoring imo. At the end of the day, the point of the game is to score goals and limit the goals against. You can't score goals if you don't take shots and you shouldn't allow as many goals if you keep the # of shots down (which, believe it or not, we're middle of the pack in shots allowed this year...not terrible).

Click to read more...

 

[InjuredChoker]

fwiw, rob vollman's 'luck score' has panthers as the most unlucky team.

http://www.hockeyabstract.com/luck

 

[walle]

Thats what happens when you waste so many chances every game

 

[PanthersHockey1]

Luck is where talent meets opportunity. We lack talent and dont create enough quality opportunities.

 

[Big Bjugs]

These numbers make perfect sense. They are accurate because this team lacks talent. we aren't good enough. Plain and simple.

I'm not saying this in a bad way because we are close, now we just need Hubby, Barkov, Bjugstad and other younger players to find there game a.k.a shooting(and SCORING) + passing. The panthers couldn't make a nice tic tac toe play even if it was a 3 on 0.

We are full of fillers that Stanley Cup competing teams go through every year at the deadline.

The most painful part is watching us dominate puck possession in the offensive zone and come out of it with nothing.

Our time is coming though.

 

[CatscratchFever]

These numbers make perfect sense. They are accurate because this team lacks talent. we aren't good enough. Plain and simple.

I'm not saying this in a bad way because we are close, now we just need Hubby, Barkov, Bjugstad and other younger players to find there game a.k.a shooting(and SCORING) + passing. The panthers couldn't make a nice tic tac toe play even if it was a 3 on 0.

We are full of fillers that Stanley Cup competing teams go through every year at the deadline.

The most painful part is watching us dominate puck possession in the offensive zone and come out of it with nothing.

Our time is coming though.

Is it, though? And what would lead you to believe that? There's no signs showing an upward trend in offensive output.

 

[gudzilla]

Is it, though? And what would lead you to believe that? There's no signs showing an upward trend in offensive output.

arent there?

since dineen, haven't our GF risen? haven't we played better hockey? aren't bjugstad feeling more confident?

there's plenty of signs that there will be an upward trend.

 

[hockey dude]

arent there?

since dineen, haven't our GF risen? haven't we played better hockey? aren't bjugstad feeling more confident?

there's plenty of signs that there will be an upward trend.

Won 4 lost 6 under Horachek. I'm giddy!!

 

[gudzilla]

Won 4 lost 6 under Horachek. I'm giddy!!

noone said that its turned around, we said its on an upward swing

i dont understand why people come here just to push down their negativity down others throats

 

[Acadmus]

Anyone into advanced hockey statistics? Whoever is probably knows what PDO is. This year, we've been the unluckiest team in hockey based on the metric.

The way it works is you calculate a team's shooting % and a team's save %. Combined, the # should average out to 100.0.

I saw this on the Rangers GDT and found it interesting since no one is even close to being as bad as us.

http://www.extraskater.com/teams/on-ice?type=total&sort=pdo

I don't fully buy into it, but I do somewhat. Basically, over a larger sample, you'd have to expect our team shooting % to be better than 5.1%.

We also have a terrible .883 save%. Even if you look at just Markstrom and Scott Clemmensen and compare their save %'s to their career save %'s, we come to the conclusion that the poor start could be due to just a small sample. And, of course, we now have Tim Thomas who's better than those two, anyway.

It's not a perfect stat, but it's one worth monitoring imo. At the end of the day, the point of the game is to score goals and limit the goals against. You can't score goals if you don't take shots and you shouldn't allow as many goals if you keep the # of shots down (which, believe it or not, we're middle of the pack in shots allowed this year...not terrible).

It's not luck. When you don't have talented players, the shots your team takes are typically low percentage shots - that is, they have a very limited chance to beat the goaltender. The stat reveals nothing about where the player shot, how hard they shot, how quickly they shot, or whether they managed to fool the goaltender with dekes or quick tape-to-tape passes and one-timers before shooting.

Basically, the stat simply reveals, as others are saying, that the Panthers are the least talented offensively, not the unluckiest.

 

[CHGoalie27]

Funny, no mention or record of what Potvin used to call "Skinny calls" (or non-calls) and the timing of such since the lockout.

Eddie Belfour will always be the symbol of that...the goal/non-goal Toronto screw jobs we had...like 3 within a week and a half span...almost any Penguins or Hurricanes game at the BB&T...the year we tied Montreal and THEY got in -thanks especially to the BS call at the end of their last game...I got a hundred more of these.

The refs have been the number one obstacle in our chances of making the playoffs(whether or not we had the talent to hit later rounds).

 

[CoolburnIsGone]

It's not luck. When you don't have talented players, the shots your team takes are typically low percentage shots - that is, they have a very limited chance to beat the goaltender. The stat reveals nothing about where the player shot, how hard they shot, how quickly they shot, or whether they managed to fool the goaltender with dekes or quick tape-to-tape passes and one-timers before shooting.

Basically, the stat simply reveals, as others are saying, that the Panthers are the least talented offensively, not the unluckiest.

Plus PDO as a stat has nothing to do with luck. All it usually tells you is if a team/player is overachieving or underachieving for the most part. Thats how I could tell that a guy like Versteeg was definitely overachieving in 2011 when you look at it compared to his past PDO numbers (and for people that will say thats because he was on the 3rd line, he was still on very good teams so his PDO should have been better).

On your comment about the shot quality, that site has some additional info regarding that (though not sure how accurate it is) with regard to distance, shot type (wrister, snap, slap) and the shooting percentages (normal and corsi/fenwick). Very interesting to see how certain players are definitely perimeter guys and who are your guys who go to the net. Not surprisingly, guys like Bjugstad, Barkov, Matthias, Bergenheim & Winchester (Boyes just missed the cutoff) are all taking their shots from under 30 ft from the net. Based on this diagram, it shows that those guys are shooting from the slot area and closer which I'm sure are higher scoring chance areas:

Very interesting stat to look at too if anyone is interested. Even moreso when you look at how certain players did last yr versus this yr. For instance, Huberdeau's average distance last season was ~25 ft compared to this yr when its ~31 ft (similar type of info on Flash): http://www.extraskater.com/players/...sort=shot_dist&team=fla&season=2013&min_gp=25

 

[Big Bjugs]

Is it, though? And what would lead you to believe that? There's no signs showing an upward trend in offensive output.

What leads me to believe that is the young players like Bjugstad, Huberdeau, Barkov, Shore, Trochek etc... Should only get better as they adapt.

Viola saying he will do what it takes leads me to believe it's possible to acquire a bonafide goal scorer and playmaker.

Even if we ice this same roster year after year you'd have to think our goal scoring would go up with Huberdeau and Barkov alone.

 

[Android 16]

Minnesota is doing it the right way, they have the best mixture of youth and vets. They have a core of players under 25; Granlund, Nieterrider, Brodin, Coyle, Dumba, Sprugeon and Fontaine. But that's not all, they have accomplished veteran talent surrounding them; Parise, Koivu, Pominville, Suter, Heatley, Cooke and Brodziak.

Our vets are nowhere near as great as Parise, Koivu, Pominville and Suter. Their organization is doing it right. Our organization has not put the right veterans around our youth, another reason why we're in a hole right now.

 

[gudzilla]

Minnesota is doing it the right way, they have the best mixture of youth and vets. They have a core of players under 25; Granlund, Nieterrider, Brodin, Coyle, Dumba, Sprugeon and Fontaine. But that's not all, they have accomplished veteran talent surrounding them; Parise, Koivu, Pominville, Suter, Heatley, Cooke and Brodziak.

Our vets are nowhere near as great as Parise, Koivu, Pominville and Suter. Their organization is doing it right. Our organization has not put the right veterans around our youth, another reason why we're in a hole right now.

yes, except that suter and parise both wanted to come home, bringing pomnville with them, vanek is probably also coming.

minnesota is a lot more atractive than florida, best fans in the league, spends a lot.

with suter and parise locked up for long time, that team is just good

 

[CoolburnIsGone]

Minnesota is doing it the right way, they have the best mixture of youth and vets. They have a core of players under 25; Granlund, Nieterrider, Brodin, Coyle, Dumba, Sprugeon and Fontaine. But that's not all, they have accomplished veteran talent surrounding them; Parise, Koivu, Pominville, Suter, Heatley, Cooke and Brodziak.

Our vets are nowhere near as great as Parise, Koivu, Pominville and Suter. Their organization is doing it right. Our organization has not put the right veterans around our youth, another reason why we're in a hole right now.

The problem is we arent as attractive to free agents as Minnesota is (where some of these guys are originally from). There was an internal conversation about trying to sign Parise back in 2011 but everyone realized it would cost way too much to convince him to sign here over Minnesota (and we saw the deal he got there).

The team we should want to emulate is Anaheim. They have their top guys that they drafted, developed and have retained (Getzlaf & Perry) and consistently drafted really good NHLers (regardless of draft position) that are contributors quickly (Fowler, Lindholm, Etem, Bobby Ryan before traded, Vatanen). A majority of their trades were not huge deals but have panned out well for them as well (Bonino, Perrault, etc) and they consistently have the right supporting veterans (Koivu, Selanne, Cogliano, Penner) who arent always leaned on to be the top players on the team. And they never rely on super elite goaltenders either but get awesome play out of that position. And they always figure out how to transition from one goalie to the next (Giguere to Hiller, Hiller to Fasth and then it'll be Fasth to Andersen). In the last 10 yrs, they only missed the playoffs twice and if they were in the Eastern conference, only missed once.

 

[GrumpyKelly]

yes, except that suter and parise both wanted to come home, bringing pomnville with them, vanek is probably also coming.

minnesota is a lot more atractive than florida, best fans in the league, spends a lot.

 

[gudzilla]

minnesota have one of the longest sellout sprees while being a bad team

they are extremely die hard and majority of them are very well educated

 

[Erick*]

Plus PDO as a stat has nothing to do with luck. All it usually tells you is if a team/player is overachieving or underachieving for the most part.

Sorry, perhaps I used the wrong word.

Do you think we're underachieving? Basically, is it sustainable for an NHL team to go a whole season converting just 5% of their shots? Sooner or later, that has to go up, right? Contrary to popular belief, not all of our shots are from terrible angles and we have a roster of...NHL players.

Like, we might not be the most talented (obviously), but puck luck is a part of the game, too. We're not even 1/3 of the way through the season so the sample is rather small. Stuff like Nick Bjustad's missed empty net last game happens 100 times and he puts it in a good 99 times.

I think "underachievement" has probably played a part in this dismal season so far just like overachievement probably played a part two years ago.

 

[GrumpyKelly]

minnesota have one of the longest sellout sprees while being a bad team

they are extremely die hard and majority of them are very well educated

I think you are talking about Minnesota being a hockey market. Sure, they have a lot of fans and a packed house but they definitely aren´t the best fans. If you watch their home games (I follow the wild closely) you can hear a pin drop on most of the nights. Last home game I watched against Winnipeg the Peg fans were out-chanting them most of the time which was a pretty facepalm moment.

 

[CatscratchFever]

arent there?

since dineen, haven't our GF risen? haven't we played better hockey? aren't bjugstad feeling more confident?

there's plenty of signs that there will be an upward trend.

But you're just being hopeful. The effort level is trending sharply upward. This isn't translating to scoring. We still score around 2 goals agame. We tend to win if we score 3 or more, which is only 6 times. So, I'd say there is no evidence that the scoring is better or showing signs it will be..

 

[CoolburnIsGone]

Sorry, perhaps I used the wrong word.

Do you think we're underachieving? Basically, is it sustainable for an NHL team to go a whole season converting just 5% of their shots? Sooner or later, that has to go up, right? Contrary to popular belief, not all of our shots are from terrible angles and we have a roster of...NHL players.

Like, we might not be the most talented (obviously), but puck luck is a part of the game, too. We're not even 1/3 of the way through the season so the sample is rather small. Stuff like Nick Bjustad's missed empty net last game happens 100 times and he puts it in a good 99 times.

I think "underachievement" has probably played a part in this dismal season so far just like overachievement probably played a part two years ago.

In part, yes we have underachieved a bit this yr. Can that 5% be sustainable, possibly but not entirely likely. So yes it should go up but depends, obviously, on how the talent actually performs. And a lot of our guys just arent performing to their capabilities game-in-game-out. Statistically, we're on pace for fewer goals on average (2.15) this yr than last yr (2.27) but also on a much better pace for giving up goals (3.15) compared to last yr (3.54).

As I briefly mentioned in the last bit about shot distance, it seems that guys like Flash & Huberdeau are shooting from further away. Its reasonable to expect that the farther away from the goal you're shooting, the less likely it is to go in. Do you at least agree with that?

Also I would think as a team, our shots on goal is down from even last yr. Personally, I'm of the belief that the more shots you take, the better chance you have to score. So far this yr, we've taken 335 shots in 26 games...compared to last yr we took 641 in 48 games and it shows that we are taken fewer shots based on that. But the funny thing is that some players are at about the same pace. Fleischmann is at the exact same pace for shots on goal as last season (121 last yr & 61 so far this yr). Goc, Campbell & Kopecky are shooting at the same pace as last yr. However, Huberdeau's number of shots though is WAY down (took 112 last yr thru 48 games and only taken 36 this yr thru a little more than half the number of games at 26). Matthias is also down (43 shots so far this yr versus 106 last yr). I'm sure there are other examples too.

I guess if you're saying "puck luck" in terms of just taking shots on goal should eventually lead to more goals that I can see it. That empty net situation with Bjugstad wasnt "puck luck" though. It was the defender, Stralman, making a great play by getting his stick in the way of a clean shot. That to me is classified as a blocked shot (though I know the league doesnt count it that way) and has little to do with "luck".

Yes this yr part of it is underachievement and 2 yrs ago in making the playoffs, it was absolutely overachievement.