News Article: Maybe Arizona should trade Taylor Hall?

[PainForShane]

1. You can't compare Keller's deal to deals that came previously, under different circumstances and cap numbers. All that matters is his pay rate relative to the total cap aka his % of cap taken. Someone like MacK is comically underpaid.

You're right that's why I didn't. Koneckny, Nylander, Provorov are all ~the same age / signed LT deals roughly the same time, all for less money (Konecny significantly less 5.5m). I am arguing those deals are the market and if so we overpaid, potentially significantly because I don't think Keller in particular is trending the same way as those three. Still lots of time for both to turn it around (absolutely hope they do)

$7.1m is not a spooky scary number in a world where someone like Jeff Skinner is getting paid $9M a year on the open market with way more miles and damage on his body. It's basically the same AAV Kevin Hayes got.

Keller hasn't even turned 22... the Coyotes are in no way "stuck" with this contract. The team loves his personality and work ethic behind the scenes which is why they gave him (and others like Dvo and Chych) such a deal. These deals are also the only way the Coyotes can be competitive in the long run...

Teams hand out bad contracts all the time to guys with very limited tread left on their tires. They overpay in dollars, term, and take on an incredible amount of risk in the process. See Lucic, Ladd, Backes etc...

The Skinner and Hayes deals are both terrible. If you're saying that those deals are what we should try to beat then yes, these deals look amazing. Also to your point, certainly our staff thinks Keller will meet his deal either by production or intangibles... but of course every team thinks that for every single deal they make (incl Lucic, Ladd, Backes etc). Regarding bad contracts, you can hand out a bad deal for mistaken potential (Bobby Ryan?) just as easily as you can overpay bc a player's too old.

Also, there are multiple ways to build a cup contender -- a team like Tampa offers their superstars bridge deals in hopes that they eventually sign for less money because the team is good (worked for Stamkos, Kuch, we'll see about Point) a team like Washington gives long term deals to everyone. Point is that bridge deals are a valid option depending on players

In terms of 'stuck with contract,' it depends mostly how other teams manage their cap. I'd argue regardless of cap increase, most teams will continue to spend right up to it meaning less available space to potentially absorb additional salary (esp one with term). That is what's happening right now -- at the end of this season not a single team will have 7m in cap space to absorb another contract without shuffling -- CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps for those at home

Teams should be a lot more loose with their U25 players that are essentially being signed for their entire prime. They represent less risk and the odds you recapture cap value via inflation are much, much higher.

The cap will continue to rise with a new TV deal and the addition of Seattle. Keller's contract is already good and will become great a few years from now. This is a player that can absolutely explode into a PPG+ producer in the right situation with some development. Sure beats paying Derek "BL" Stepan $6.5m.

What do you mean by risk? There is still risk -- less risk of body breaking down, but definitely risk the player won't develop. Given how some of our young players like Dylan Strome, Max Domi, Duclair etc have gone, our development risk in particular is significant. This development risk is why I view these contracts as risks (esp with term) -- if Keller / Schmaltz do become PPG players then of course their contracts are great / we will be able to trade them but then why would we want to.

That said let's put this another way. If the players produce like a legitimate first line then of course they are good deals. This is more of a 'these players are young, in the recent past we haven't really developed our players that well... and besides, these players might not be the ones we'd want to build around' but that last point is different and beyond the scope (like you said, Hall thread)

Does everyone see how this is all related though? If Keller / Schmaltz take significant strides then maybe we can become a true cup contending team, then maybe Hall signs here and we're all in a good position for the next 5 years or so. If Keller / Schmaltz don't score down the stretch, our roster is likely only average, Hall signs somewhere else and we're worse off in the medium term. So, we should do everything we can to get Keller / Schmaltz to produce by any means necessary, this year's production is more important than it ideally should be with a normal long term deal

 

[moosemeister]

13 games before the trade deadline.

if you don’t win 10 of them, trade him away

 

[cobra427]

13 games before the trade deadline.

if you don’t win 10 of them, trade him away

Hall isn't getting traded, period.

 

[Fatass]

Hall isn't getting traded, period.

Who in the ?Hall would want him?
Still say the Coyotes were better without Hall. There are some players (I don’t know why) who are just losers. Hall seems to be one of those guys. Great player, but his teams just (no reason why) just lose. Someone explain this, please!

 

[XX]

Who in the ?Hall would want him?
Still say the Coyotes were better without Hall. There are some players (I don’t know why) who are just losers. Hall seems to be one of those guys. Great player, but his teams just (no reason why) just lose. Someone explain this, please!

You aren't watching the games, just the stat line. I don't think you're actually interested in having it explained.

 

[Fatass]

You aren't watching the games, just the stat line. I don't think you're actually interested in having it explained.

Well actually I am. Why are the Coyotes worse with Hall (clearly a really good player) than before they got him?

 

[_Del_]

They were playing just like this, but were getting stellar goaltending. Now we aren't. There are plenty of losers on this squad. Hall isn't the problem.

 

[BUX7PHX]

I hope you're right. Keller in particular is young but to me he looks worse than he did his rookie year and has not yet trended in the right direction (at least not nearly enough to feel comfortable with his cap hit). Again I hope you're right, if Keller earns his money I'll be the happiest fan in the world.

For others following, Keller will have a cap hit of 7.15m next year (for the next 8 years). His cap hit is 58th highest in the entire league (which includes goalies and D), this season he's currently tied for 95th in the league in overall scoring (higher than I originally thought actually), I didn't index his production for GP but it gets the point across just as well.

Keller cap hit: Browse - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps
Keller's stats: NHL.com Stats

Keller's cap hit is more than long term deals signed by similar aged / better producing players such as Konecny, William Nylander, Provorov, as well as ppl like Laine, Matt Tkachuk, Brayden Point, Debrincat who are all on bridge deals. Keller's cap hit looks much worse when you take a look at deals signed just a few years prior such Pastrnak, MacK, Huberdeau who will all have less of a cap hit (link above from capfriendly)

Are you still sure we signed Keller for below market? I think we overpaid by quite a bit which dramatically increases expectations (perhaps unreasonably) especially for someone so young

Remember the info on the average of $1.1-1.4 per 10 points? I also have to believe that for those who signed long term under the age of 23, there is also the standard that this is not the peak performance level of the player. Much easier to define a value if you have more years to look at, but the bar where that category falls in likely changes for the worse.

 

[Fuhrious]

Hall isn't getting traded, period.

In a universe (hopefully not this one) where the team absolutely freefalls completely out of playoff contention, Hall "not getting traded, period" would be inexcusable.

 

[Jamieh]

They were playing just like this, but were getting stellar goaltending. Now we aren't. There are plenty of losers on this squad. Hall isn't the problem.

I don't think the Coyote's have played well for any meaningful timeframe since November.

 

[Jakey53]

They were playing just like this, but were getting stellar goaltending. Now we aren't. There are plenty of losers on this squad. Hall isn't the problem.

Exactly. I and a few others have been saying this all year. Does anyone think we would be in the running for a playoff spot with out our goalies? Unfortunately, Chayka thinks differently, and that is why we traded for Hall. Now, if we keep him, we lose another 1st. rounder.

 

[Vinny Boombatz]

Exactly. I and a few others have been saying this all year. Does anyone think we would be in the running for a playoff spot with out our goalies? Unfortunately, Chayka thinks differently, and that is why we traded for Hall. Now, if we keep him, we lose another 1st. rounder.

But Hall is by far our best player. I'd give up another 1st to keep him no questions asked. None of the 1st round picks we'd select would be as talented as Hall. It's all a moot point anyway, because I doubt he wants to stay after this travesty of a demise continues anyway. There is no way he stays.

 

[Jakey53]

I don't think the Coyote's have played well for any meaningful timeframe since November.

You could be right. Who do you blame? Coaches? Players? Chayka?

 

[_Del_]

I think it's mainly the sleepy guys on the bench with no work ethic. But it's easier to fire the coach than trade everyone who looks like trash. And Tocc isn't exactly impressive at the actual nuts and bolts. He's a good selection as assistant to play good cop. Elsewise, it's hard to see what he's bringing to the table.

 

[Jakey53]

But Hall is by far our best player. I'd give up another 1st to keep him no questions asked. None of the 1st round picks we'd select would be as talented as Hall. It's all a moot point anyway, because I doubt he wants to stay after this travesty of a demise continues anyway. There is no way he stays.

You're right, but there is a time and place to make this deal. If we were a SC contender, then you pull the trigger hoping that one player is what you need to bring you a SC. We are currently not that team.

 

[Jamieh]

You could be right. Who do you blame? Coaches? Players? Chayka?

It's no secret that I always thought the Coyotes were better than the sum of their parts. We are now signed onto a core that I dont think is very good. Unless we play a strong structured game this team is below average. We have almost no high end talent but our Cap does not show that.

 

[Jakey53]

I think it's mainly the sleepy guys on the bench with no work ethic. But it's easier to fire the coach than trade everyone who looks like trash. And Tocc isn't exactly impressive at the actual nuts and bolts. He's a good selection as assistant to play good cop. Elsewise, it's hard to see what he's bringing to the table.

You look at this team and damn it, they should be playing better. We don't have a high end all star, but we have pretty decent talent and this team is deep with good players. We are not SC contenders, but we should be a playoff team, especially playing in this division this year. Why don't the vets have the work ethic? Is it coaching? Have the players tuned out RT? Is it the player mix?

 

[Jakey53]

It's no secret that I always thought the Coyotes were better than the sum of their parts. We are now signed onto a core that I dont think is very good. Unless we play a strong structured game this team is below average. We have almost no high end talent but our Cap does not show that.

So you blame Chayka?

 

[Jamieh]

So you blame Chayka?

I said last year Chayka will either be a genius or sink the franchise with the long term deals he signed. It's too early to consider which is correct but short term he did build this team??

 

[Vinny Boombatz]

You're right, but there is a time and place to make this deal. If we were a SC contender, then you pull the trigger hoping that one player is what you need to bring you a SC. We are currently not that team.

I don't disagree...I think Chayka saw what the Blues did last year by getting hot and going on a roll and I believe Chayka thought we could do the same thing with Kuemper in goal and Hall spear-heading the offense. The good news is that our owner now will spend money so the loss of the 1st round pick isn't as damaging as it would have been in the past because we weren't ever going to be players in the large FA market.

We've got young guys who will get better hopefully. What we keep on missing is better players down the middle. Our production down the middle is atrocious. Here is a picture of where we stand as far as production at the Center position

We're right down at the bottom with all the bottom feeders. The Islanders are the anomaly out of this pack...until we get "Quality" down the middle, we will continue to be an under producing team. PERIOD! Which is why I agree with you that adding Hall was the wrong choice, because it didn't address our greatest need and realistically muzzles the production of Hall and our other less talented wingers. It's the elephant in the room, besides the lack of quality coaching.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

You look at this team and damn it, they should be playing better. We don't have a high end all star, but we have pretty decent talent and this team is deep with good players. We are not SC contenders, but we should be a playoff team, especially playing in this division this year. Why don't the vets have the work ethic? Is it coaching? Have the players tuned out RT? Is it the player mix?

Why should they be better? This is our team:

Taylor Hall - former MVP, legit superstar, and very public lame duck
Derek Stepan - highly-paid 3C for whom the word "conditioning" is a major buzzkill if there's beer to be drunk
Phil Kessel - just doin' his thing, brah
Conor Garland - the little engine that could, except when he disappears for long streaks
Clayton Keller - "adaptation" may not be in his dictionary... "defense" certainly isn't
Nick Schmaltz - soap bubble who popped once he inked his extension
Vinnie Hinostroza - Chicago's short answer to Enver Lisin
Christian Dvorak - the OG One Expression Man, meeting streaks and slumps with the same deadpan stare
Christian Fischer - opens his toolbox the wrong way every time
Michael Grabner - the classic short distance sprinter, from his skating to his season-long performance
Carl Soderberg - the rapidly draining tank
Brad Richardson - already looking at real estate in Scandanavia
Lawson Crouse - the only guy who is willing to fight, physically and mentally
Barrett Hayton - bench-learnin', except when it's Canada's pride on the line
Jakob Chychrun - can't be everywhere at once
Niklas Hjalmarsson - can be everywhere at once - if he gets hit by another puck, he might shatter into a thousand pieces again
Jordan Oesterle - sigh
Alex Goligoski - the D-line's old man, occasionally forgets how to play hockey in critical situations
Jason Demers - the gap-toothed goofball that everyone apparently loves in the room but can't translate it to the ice
Ilya Lyubushkin - in Soviet Russia, hockey plays you, and that's the game he brought over the pond with him
Oliver Ekman-Larsson - nobody can tell if it's his mom dying, his legs falling off, his wrists broken, or the loss of his sartorial enterprise, but whatever it is, he doesn't seem to like hockey anymore
Antti Raanta - passion for days, injured reserve for months
Darcy Kuemper - like a prized collectible, not sure we could dare to risk taking him out of the packaging again

That doesn't look like a playoff team to me.

 

[Jakey53]

I don't disagree...I think Chayka saw what the Blues did last year by getting hot and going on a roll and I believe Chayka thought we could do the same thing with Kuemper in goal and Hall spear-heading the offense. The good news is that our owner now will spend money so the loss of the 1st round pick isn't as damaging as it would have been in the past because we weren't ever going to be players in the large FA market.

We've got young guys who will get better hopefully. What we keep on missing is better players down the middle. Our production down the middle is atrocious. Here is a picture of where we stand as far as production at the Center position
View attachment 314037
We're right down at the bottom with all the bottom feeders. The Islanders are the anomaly out of this pack...until we get "Quality" down the middle, we will continue to be an under producing team. PERIOD! Which is why I agree with you that adding Hall was the wrong choice, because it didn't address our greatest need and realistically muzzles the production of Hall and our other less talented wingers. It's the elephant in the room, besides the lack of quality coaching.

I didn't say adding Hall was the wrong choice, rather wrong time.

 

[WeWentBlues]

With 12 games before the deadline and a pretty formidable list of opponents, what sort of performane switches the Coyotes from buy to sell mode? There is so much party in the West that even a sub .500 record likely keeps you in contention.

If the Coyotes did end up selling, some draft capital lost could quickly be regained as there would be no shortage of teams interested at the deadline.

 

[hbk]

With 12 games before the deadline and a pretty formidable list of opponents, what sort of performane switches the Coyotes from buy to sell mode? There is so much party in the West that even a sub .500 record likely keeps you in contention.

If the Coyotes did end up selling, some draft capital lost could quickly be regained as there would be no shortage of teams interested at the deadline.

That’s just it. We are u likely to lose enough that we fall far enough from contention to move to sell mode. We are still in the playoffs as of today. Can it happen? Maybe. It’s just so bloody unlikely that I can’t believe it’s been discussed to the degree that it’s been discussed. Check back in 10 games.

 

[Jakey53]

That’s just it. We are u likely to lose enough that we fall far enough from contention to move to sell mode. We are still in the playoffs as of today. Can it happen? Maybe. It’s just so bloody unlikely that I can’t believe it’s been discussed to the degree that it’s been discussed. Check back in 10 games.

We are getting a bit impatient aren't we.