Matthews vs MacKinnon vs Dahlin - Who do you take moving forward?

[Muffin]

So just ignore the fact that Matthews has more points at even strength then MacKinnon. Okay then.

Maybe Matthews should try to produce more on the PP then? He might even break 80 points for the first time.

 

[Muffin]

Per 60 stats matter. Filtering for ES matters. Despite playing less games Matthews has more even strength points and primary points then Mac, and thats considering he's played way less minutes/games. Matthews has 2.96 points per 6o while Mac has 2.10. Primary points Matthews has 2.37 while Mac has 1.70.

Edit: forgot to mention even strength Matthews has 50 to Mac's 48 and Matthews has 40 primary to Mac's 39. Then add the fact he played a lot less minutes.

Just give up, when you have to nitpick stats like PRIMARY POINTS and EVEN STRENGTH POINTS and POINT PER 60 you know you're grasping at straws. You know what MacKinnon is better at ACTUAL POINTS and PRODUCTION. You know what else MacKinnon did? 98 points. Maybe Matthews should start with 80 first.

 

[EdAVSfan]

Not sure what the benefit of ignoring the past when trying to predict the future and how contracts are given. I mean, no GM in the league will look at the current season as the metric going into contract negotiations. Everything should be taken into account, past, present, projection, comparables etc. So yes, past performance always should be included.

If we were to believe that Dahlin will be a generational Defenseman and that Doughty already has a 11M contract and if Karlsson ends up making more than that, then what do you think Dahlin's contract will look like when he's done his ELC? Would it be justified then to say that in the 2021/2022 season Morgan Rielly would be worth way more than Dahlin because of how much cheaper he is?

Would you say that Marchand is worth more than McDavid then? Marchand at 6M to McDavind at 12.5M. Does McDavid need 200pts to justify his contract or are these comparisons kind of silly unless you take everything into account?

But that’s the thing, I am taking everything into account.

Pre-cap era, sure, let’s throw out the salary comparisons, because it really didn’t matter. But now it does. You can only fit so much salary, so when players are paid, they’re going to naturally be compared to other players producing similarly for less money.

So Marchand vs McDavid.
Well, if Marchand was producing more points than McDavid, and was the same age, but being half the amount, you’re darn right I’ll take Marchand.
As of now, the comparison is rather pointless based on their ages, and the fact that McDavid is a better player.

Mackinnon and Matthews are an apt comparison. They’re close to same age, same position. They also have comparable contract lengths. So as of right now, because Mackinnon is paid significantly less, and I’m trying to build a team, someone has to give me a legitimate reason why I should take the more expensive, but less productive player. Because right now, the Avs are able to pay Mackinnon and Landeskog for the same price as Matthews.

So yes, I do take everything into account.

As for past production. Past 2 years season averages and paces:

Mackinnon: 42 Goals 61 assists
Matthews: 45 goals 41 assists

Note that Matthews is being credited for an 86 point pace despite just cracking 70 points.

Honestly, you’re simply arguing and discussing around the entire premise of the discussion.

Which player do you choose moving forward?

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

But that’s the thing, I am taking everything into account.

Pre-cap era, sure, let’s throw out the salary comparisons, because it really didn’t matter. But now it does. You can only fit so much salary, so when players are paid, they’re going to naturally be compared to other players producing similarly for less money.

So Marchand vs McDavid.
Well, if Marchand was producing more points than McDavid, and was the same age, but being half the amount, you’re darn right I’ll take Marchand.
As of now, the comparison is rather pointless based on their ages, and the fact that McDavid is a better player.

Mackinnon and Matthews are an apt comparison. They’re close to same age, same position. They also have comparable contract lengths. So as of right now, because Mackinnon is paid significantly less, and I’m trying to build a team, someone has to give me a legitimate reason why I should take the more expensive, but less productive player. Because right now, the Avs are able to pay Mackinnon and Landeskog for the same price as Matthews.

So yes, I do take everything into account.

As for past production. Past 2 years season averages and paces:

Mackinnon: 42 Goals 61 assists
Matthews: 45 goals 41 assists

Note that Matthews is being credited for an 86 point pace despite just cracking 70 points.

Honestly, you’re simply arguing and discussing around the entire premise of the discussion.

Which player do you choose moving forward?

Tbf Nate mack is playing 4 mins of pp time and is playing on a stacked line.

He's still better then Matthews now but context should be applied.

 

[AegonLeConqueror]

Tbf Nate mack is playing 4 mins of pp time and is playing on a stacked line.

He's still better then Matthews now but context should be applied.

Ehh iunno. The Mack-Rants-Landeskog line was broken up a while ago. And while I think the it’s fair to point out that Mack played on a stack line, he also played on a team where the 2C was a revolving door of Soderberg, Jost, Kerfoot and sometimes Compher whereas the 2C (or some could argue 1C) for Toronto was Tavares. So Mack may have played on a stacked line for a while but Matthews was playing on a team where he’s a little more “sheltered”, for lack of a better word.

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

Ehh iunno. The Mack-Rants-Landeskog line was broken up a while ago. And while I think the it’s fair to point out that Mack played on a stack line, he also played on a team where the 2C was a revolving door of Soderberg, Jost, Kerfoot and sometimes Compher whereas the 2C (or some could argue 1C) for Toronto was Tavares. So Mack may have played on a stacked line for a while but Matthews was playing on a team where he’s a little more “sheltered”, for lack of a better word.

Matthews qoc isn't too much different from the Tavares line. Just like Crosby and Malkin there isn't a big difference in the competition they face.
The big difference is his revolving door of wingers this year. He hasn't been able to find chemistry with anyone this year. Marleau/johnson/kappy/Nylander

Something just isn't working or it does but short term only.

I wasn't aware of Nate's line being broken up for a bit but playing 22 mins a game with 4 on the pp compare that to Matthews 18 and a half mins and 2 and half mins on the pp. Pretty big gap in usuage for top end players.

 

[razkaz]

But that’s the thing, I am taking everything into account.
Pre-cap era, sure, let’s throw out the salary comparisons, because it really didn’t matter. But now it does. You can only fit so much salary, so when players are paid, they’re going to naturally be compared to other players producing similarly for less money.

I agree, cap has to be taken into account when comparing players. Right now Matthews makes less than Mackinnon, by a lot. So it would be fair to say that based off current production and current goals/point totals, Matthews wins this argument by a mile. You are arguing that Matthews will be paid much more than Mackinnon starting next year and you're asking what would justify that to which I replied the fact that he is a great goal scorer, potentially 45-50, that is the premium. Go and have a read in this thread, there have been some posters that have looked up the numbers and the list of 50+ goal scorers is much smaller than 100+ point players and it's pretty clear that scoring 50 is hard, very very hard. 50 Goals vs 100 Points

So Marchand vs McDavid.
Well, if Marchand was producing more points than McDavid, and was the same age, but being half the amount, you’re darn right I’ll take Marchand.
As of now, the comparison is rather pointless based on their ages, and the fact that McDavid is a better player.

You asked the question of how much more does Matthews have to produce to justify 5M extra on a contract, I showed you one quick example of someone making much less than the best player in the world who is also producing. How many people do you honestly believe would take Marchand at 6M over McDavid at 12.5M? Who would you pick Mackinnon over McDavid as well given their cap hits and production? Just want you to see how ridiculous it is to do a 1 for 1 $/cap hit can be misleading as an argument

Mackinnon and Matthews are an apt comparison. They’re close to same age, same position. They also have comparable contract lengths. So as of right now, because Mackinnon is paid significantly less, and I’m trying to build a team, someone has to give me a legitimate reason why I should take the more expensive, but less productive player. Because right now, the Avs are able to pay Mackinnon and Landeskog for the same price as Matthews.
So yes, I do take everything into account.

See my Mackinnon vs McDavid question above. Pick one and justify it.

Max Domi makes 3.1M and has 28G/71PTS, why should anyone pay double for Mackinnon at 6.3M for 40G/98PTS. How can you justiify paying double the salary for an extra 12G/27PTS?
These are getting absurd no?

As for past production. Past 2 years season averages and paces:
Mackinnon: 42 Goals 61 assists
Matthews: 45 goals 41 assists
Note that Matthews is being credited for an 86 point pace despite just cracking 70 points.
Honestly, you’re simply arguing and discussing around the entire premise of the discussion.
Which player do you choose moving forward?

Honestly, I'll take the player who's ranked seventh for fewest games to 100 goals in the last 30 years and pay him a premium to do it.

 

[Love]

I think the easy answer here is Matthews first. The best 5 on 5 goalscorer in the NHL is way too valuable to pass up when most of the game is played at even strength.

Then I would take MacK over Dahlin, but its close. Dahlin is highly touted but hasn't really proven much yet.

Matthews is great but he isn’t even the best 5 on 5 goal scorer on his team.

 

[Dr Salt]

Maybe Matthews should try to produce more on the PP then? He might even break 80 points for the first time.

Just give up, when you have to nitpick stats like PRIMARY POINTS and EVEN STRENGTH POINTS and POINT PER 60 you know you're grasping at straws. You know what MacKinnon is better at ACTUAL POINTS and PRODUCTION. You know what else MacKinnon did? 98 points. Maybe Matthews should start with 80 first.

Sounds ignorant. Also Matthews per 60 is superior on the power play. Players have varying time on the power play depending on how many penalties the team tends to draw. MacKinnon has more power play points but thats despite the Avs having over 100 more minutes on the PP. Your argument is based on ignorance and removing a lot of factors. Why is production 100% fair to a player with 67 vs 81 games played?

 

[LuckyBoeser]

Matthews is great but he isn’t even the best 5 on 5 goal scorer on his team.

Where did you get that conclusion from?

Since 2016-2017:
p/60 at 5v5
1st - Matthews 2.55
2nd - Marner 2.35

p1/60 at 5v5
1st - Matthews 2.22
2nd - Marner 1.9

G/60 at 5v5
1st - Matthews 1.52
2nd - Tavares 1.11

From those stats I gathered, I am genuinely curious why you think Matthews isn't the best 5 on 5 goal scorer on the Leafs? He is not only the best 5 on 5 goal scorer, but he is the best 5v5 points producer on the Leafs.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

Dahlin has proven every bit as much as Matthews has proven... That they are both really good young players with sky high potential. Both of them haven't won anything yet, nothing meaningful of course.

You can agree to disagree but I think saying that Matthews has shown more promise than Dahlin is insane. They both had incredible 18 year old seasons. It's just that Dahlin did it on the worse team and whilst playing a harder position to play when breaking into the NHL.

Rn Mackinnon is better than Auston and I don't think Matthews has more upside than what Mackinnon already is. For that reason I'll take the guy signed for half the price.

Dahlin
Mackinnon
Matthews

Good post but you are wrong in one spot. Matthews didn't have an age 18 season. He was 19 before the season even started.

Dahlin by the way has 42 points in 81 games as an 18 year old. The third dman EVER in league history to hit 40+. Considering the only 2 D to do that are both HoFers its not even close

Dahlin>>Matthews


Matthews doesn't even have a better ppg then Eichel the last 3 seasons and Matthews is >>Dahlin?

 

[Love]

Where did you get that conclusion from?

Since 2016-2017:
p/60 at 5v5
1st - Matthews 2.55
2nd - Marner 2.35

p1/60 at 5v5
1st - Matthews 2.22
2nd - Marner 1.9

G/60 at 5v5
1st - Matthews 1.52
2nd - Tavares 1.11

From those stats I gathered, I am genuinely curious why you think Matthews isn't the best 5 on 5 goal scorer? He is not only the best 5 on 5 goal scorer, but he is the best 5v5 points producer on the Leafs.

Tavares has more ES goals than anyone in the NHL this season. If he hits 40 ES goals this season, he’ll be the only player since the 90s to do it other than Stamkos and Ovechkin who have both done it once.

 

[LuckyBoeser]

Tavares has more ES goals than anyone in the NHL this season. If he hits 40 ES goals this season, he’ll be the only player since the 90s to do it other than Stamkos and Ovechkin who have both done it once.

Okay. Matthews still scores more per60 5 on 5

If we switch from 5v5 to ES, Matthews still score at a better rate.
Matthews 1.58 G/60 at ES
Tavares 1.16 G/60 at ES

You're using a 1 year sample size, while I'm using a 3 years sample size