Matthews vs MacKinnon vs Dahlin - Who do you take moving forward?

[Mac2Rants]

Per 60 stats matter. Filtering for ES matters. Despite playing less games Matthews has more even strength points and primary points then Mac, and thats considering he's played way less minutes/games. Matthews has 2.96 points per 6o while Mac has 2.10. Primary points Matthews has 2.37 while Mac has 1.70.

Edit: forgot to mention even strength Matthews has 50 to Mac's 48 and Matthews has 40 primary to Mac's 39. Then add the fact he played a lot less minutes.

I'm sorry , but I can't wait till Matthews gets a few more mins and does basically shit all compared to now.

And mack on the leafs would easily be putting up 105-110pt seasons like we will see next year.

 

[EdAVSfan]

For those who are arguing Matthews over Mackinnon, because of Matthews “start” to his career, and P/60...

So tell me. What’s Matthews projected ceiling? How many more points will he produce per season than Mack? 5? 10? 20? 30?

What’s the actual stat projection?

Because if Matthews is simply going to put up 5-15 more points (if he even does that!) then why the heck would I want to pay 5M more for that.

If you want to argue Matthews over Mackinnon, you need to make the legitimate argument that Matthews is going to SIGNIFICANTLY outproduce Mackinnon moving forward. Otherwise.

I mean, who gives a S**t where Mack was in his first four years? You compare who they are now and moving forward. Is Mack the 50ish point player anymore? No, then why even use it as an argument?

So again I ask, how much more production will I get by choosing Matthews for the 80% more money I have to give him?

 

[Muffin]

MacKinnon will probably hit 100 points this year, I don't see Matthews EVER having a 100 point season.

 

[Dion TheFluff]

This really depends on what people are pegging Matthews and Dahlin.

If Dahlin gets to where people think he’s heading, it’s hard to vote against s guy who’ll win multiple Norris’ and be a top D in the league for the next 15 years.

Matthews is an monster goal scorer but essentially just that. He’s somewhere between where Leafs fans peg him and where ‘haters’ peg him. He’s like a top 15/18 centre in the league; which is damn impressive for his age. He has the ability to be a top 5 centre in this league I believe.

Mack is a legit top 5 centre in this league, but he’s also older than the other guys and likely a complete package minus some more two way growth.

Dunno. Moving forward? Do I keep Mack at his ridiculous contract? That’s a huge factor too.

name 17 centers better than him.
I'll wait.

 

[razkaz]

For those who are arguing Matthews over Mackinnon, because of Matthews “start” to his career, and P/60...

So tell me. What’s Matthews projected ceiling? How many more points will he produce per season than Mack? 5? 10? 20? 30?

What’s the actual stat projection?

Because if Matthews is simply going to put up 5-15 more points (if he even does that!) then why the heck would I want to pay 5M more for that.

If you want to argue Matthews over Mackinnon, you need to make the legitimate argument that Matthews is going to SIGNIFICANTLY outproduce Mackinnon moving forward. Otherwise.

I mean, who gives a S**t where Mack was in his first four years? You compare who they are now and moving forward. Is Mack the 50ish point player anymore? No, then why even use it as an argument?

So again I ask, how much more production will I get by choosing Matthews for the 80% more money I have to give him?

I don't necessarily think it's going to be points but rather goals. I could see Matthews being top 3 in the race for the Rocket if healthy every year.

The reason why the firs 4 years are brought up is because you look at where Mackinnin started, pts wise, to where he is today. If Matthews has a similar projection, then he will be much better based on how he started if he projects the same way.

Again, I don't believe he will top point producer but more of a 45-50G/90Pts player

 

[EdAVSfan]

I don't necessarily think it's going to be points but rather goals. I could see Matthews being top 3 in the race for the Rocket if healthy every year.

The reason why the firs 4 years are brought up is because you look at where Mackinnin started, pts wise, to where he is today. If Matthews has a similar projection, then he will be much better based on how he started if he projects the same way.

Again, I don't believe he will top point producer but more of a 45-50G/90Pts player

Players develop at all different rates. Mackinnon exploded after his 4th season. That doesn’t mean all players do.

If Matthews is going to be a 45G/90 point player, they the heck am I spending 5M more dollars or 80% more salary than the guy who’s putting up 40G/100 pts?

 

[The Winter Soldier]

For those who are arguing Matthews over Mackinnon, because of Matthews “start” to his career, and P/60...

So tell me. What’s Matthews projected ceiling? How many more points will he produce per season than Mack? 5? 10? 20? 30?

What’s the actual stat projection?

Because if Matthews is simply going to put up 5-15 more points (if he even does that!) then why the heck would I want to pay 5M more for that.

If you want to argue Matthews over Mackinnon, you need to make the legitimate argument that Matthews is going to SIGNIFICANTLY outproduce Mackinnon moving forward. Otherwise.

I mean, who gives a S**t where Mack was in his first four years? You compare who they are now and moving forward. Is Mack the 50ish point player anymore? No, then why even use it as an argument?

So again I ask, how much more production will I get by choosing Matthews for the 80% more money I have to give him?

Actual production will always trump the /60 argument. Mackinnon is better than Matthews this year. It isn't even close when you factor in defensive play.

Mackinnon has done his scoring while playing above average defence. Far better than Matthews' defensive metrics. Matthews has been a tire fire defensively this year without Hyman.

Mackinnon GA60 5v5 is 2.08
Matthews GA60 5v5 is 3.34.

That's over a goal and a quarter a per 60 mins. This is a staggering variance of 2 way play production from Mackinnon to 1 way play production from Matthews this year.

 

[Volica]

name 17 centers better than him.
I'll wait.

Clearly a step above him:

McDavid
Bergeron
Crosby
MacKinnon
Point
Barkov

In the same group:
Eichel
Malkin
JT
Stamkos
Aho
Seguin
Schiefele
ROR
Larkin
Kuz

It's your preference who you want in front of him. I have a lot of those guys in that second list above him. Like I said, Top 15/18 centre depending on what your preference are. You could have him ranked 10, 14... really depends on what you like from your centres, but top 15/18 isn't debatable, he's among the top half of first line centres in this league; just not one of the best IMO.

 

[razkaz]

Players develop at all different rates. Mackinnon exploded after his 4th season. That doesn’t mean all players do.

If Matthews is going to be a 45G/90 point player, they the heck am I spending 5M more dollars or 80% more salary than the guy who’s putting up 40G/100 pts?

I know player progression is different, I was just trying to explain how some could look at Mackinnon's progression and say that if Matthews started off better and projects similar to Mackinnon, then his ceiling is higher.

Because since coming into the NHL Auston Matthews is ranked 5th in total goals with 111 (Mackinnon is 18th with 95), 2nd in G/GP with 0.53 (Mackinnon is 22nd with 0.4), 2nd in EVG totals with 86 (Mackinnon is 16th with 67). So basically Matthews is a very good goal scorer and even better at EV which comes at a premium.

 

[Dion TheFluff]

Clearly a step above him:

McDavid
Bergeron
Crosby
MacKinnon
Point
Barkov

In the same group:
Eichel
Malkin
JT
Stamkos
Aho
Seguin
Schiefele
ROR
Larkin
Kuz

It's your preference who you want in front of him. I have a lot of those guys in that second list above him. Like I said, Top 15/18 centre depending on what your preference are. You could have him ranked 10, 14... really depends on what you like from your centres, but top 15/18 isn't debatable, he's among the top half of first line centres in this league; just not one of the best IMO.

Point has a 14.8 OIS% while riding shotgun to probably the 2nd best player in the NHL right now. I wouldn't say he's even as good as most you had in the same tier as Matthews let alone a tier above them.
looking at the that list of players you listed I would probably have Matthews ranked 7th personally.

 

[EdAVSfan]

I don't necessarily think it's going to be points but rather goals. I could see Matthews being top 3 in the race for the Rocket if healthy every year.

The reason why the firs 4 years are brought up is because you look at where Mackinnin started, pts wise, to where he is today. If Matthews has a similar projection, then he will be much better based on how he started if he projects the same way.

Again, I don't believe he will top point producer but more of a 45-50G/90Pts player

Players develop at all different rates. Mackinnon exploded after his 4th season. That doesn’t mean all players do.

If Matthews is going to be a 45G/90 point player, they the heck am I spending 5M more dollars or 80% for roughly

I know player progression is different, I was just trying to explain how some could look at Mackinnon's progression and say that if Matthews started off better and projects similar to Mackinnon, then his ceiling is higher.

Because since coming into the NHL Auston Matthews is ranked 5th in total goals with 111 (Mackinnon is 18th with 95), 2nd in G/GP with 0.53 (Mackinnon is 22nd with 0.4), 2nd in EVG totals with 86 (Mackinnon is 16th with 67). So basically Matthews is a very good goal scorer and even better at EV which comes at a premium.

so what are the numbers over the last 2 years.

Why would I include mackinnons numbers from 3 seasons ago when A) the Avs were the worst team since the lockout and B) Mackinnon is no longer that player.

But again. 80% more pay. Where’s the statistical justification? How much more goals and production should I expect?

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I think another variable in Mackinnon's favour is he doesn't have a Center to shelter him. Where Matthews is in a sheltered position.

 

[Los merengues]

MacKinnon will probably hit 100 points this year, I don't see Matthews EVER having a 100 point season.

This.

With his playmaking ability it would take a 60 goal season to get 100. Cant see that happening.

 

[razkaz]

Players develop at all different rates. Mackinnon exploded after his 4th season. That doesn’t mean all players do.

If Matthews is going to be a 45G/90 point player, they the heck am I spending 5M more dollars or 80% for roughly

Because Mackinnon signed in the summer of 2016 after 3 years in the league with 24G/63PTS, 14G/38PTS and 21G/52PTS. Funny enough he also only payed 1 full season out of his first 3 but that's besides the point. It was a gamble based on how high he was touted coming into the league and the downward trend, he absolutely became a steal of a contract, same as Schiefele who signed that summer as well.

So, we've covered that Mackinnon started off slower than Matthews and got a contract that 2 years after he signed it, became a bargain. How many people would have predicted that? Now people are also predicting that Matthews cannot already live up to his contract because of what exactly? Starting off his career with stronger numbers than Mackinnon? I'd love to be able to hear the argument as to why Matthews has failed his new contract already.

so what are the numbers over the last 2 years.

Why would I include mackinnons numbers from 3 seasons ago when A) the Avs were the worst team since the lockout and B) Mackinnon is no longer that player.

But again. 80% more pay. Where’s the statistical justification? How much more goals and production should I expect?

Because that's when Auston Matthews came into the league and when he started to earn NHL points? That's my point, Mackinnon came into the league and started off slow and is now producing at what people were predicting he would. Matthews came in with a stronger first 3 years performance and based on how players (at least most 1OA picks) progress, it will continue to be upwards. How much and for how long, I'm not sure. But to be in the NHL for only 3 years now and be top 5 league wide in goal scoring by almost every metric, is astounding. Imagine improving on that? Like I said, I doubt he gets the high point totals and may have a couple 100pts seasons here and there but I expect 45-50G, mostly EV, and 40-45A. The premium being goal scoring at even strength, if you don't value that, cool I guess.

 

[cgf]

Dahlin
MacKinnon
Matthews

I love MacK and he's just a delight to watch, but I still fully expect Dahlin to become even better & actually challenge McDavid.

 

[EdAVSfan]

Because Mackinnon signed in the summer of 2016 after 3 years in the league with 24G/63PTS, 14G/38PTS and 21G/52PTS. Funny enough he also only payed 1 full season out of his first 3 but that's besides the point. It was a gamble based on how high he was touted coming into the league and the downward trend, he absolutely became a steal of a contract, same as Schiefele who signed that summer as well.

So, we've covered that Mackinnon started off slower than Matthews and got a contract that 2 years after he signed it, became a bargain. How many people would have predicted that? Now people are also predicting that Matthews cannot already live up to his contract because of what exactly? Starting off his career with stronger numbers than Mackinnon? I'd love to be able to hear the argument as to why Matthews has failed his new contract already.



Because that's when Auston Matthews came into the league and when he started to earn NHL points? That's my point, Mackinnon came into the league and started off slow and is now producing at what people were predicting he would. Matthews came in with a stronger first 3 years performance and based on how players (at least most 1OA picks) progress, it will continue to be upwards. How much and for how long, I'm not sure. But to be in the NHL for only 3 years now and be top 5 league wide in goal scoring by almost every metric, is astounding. Imagine improving on that? Like I said, I doubt he gets the high point totals and may have a couple 100pts seasons here and there but I expect 45-50G, mostly EV, and 40-45A. The premium being goal scoring at even strength, if you don't value that, cool I guess.

I’m not really disagreeing with what you’re saying.

But the problem is, it’s mostly irrelevant to what the discussion of this thread is. I’m not, not have I ever suggested Matthews will Not or has not lived up to his contract.
I’m fully aware that the Avs are lucky with the timing of Mackinnons extension. Again though, generally irrelevant.

This discussion is simply about which of the 3 players you would take moving forward taking into account all aspects.

It’s Mack at 6.3 or Matthews at 11.6. I have no issue with someone saying Matthews. I have issue with people using their past as the justification. That’s not the question. The question is about moving forward between the two. So if you’re going to say Matthews, you need to justify the siginificant cost.

You are actually admitting you expect him to produce less than Mackinnon but to score 5-10 more goals. So less points but more goals.

No offense. But I’ll take my few less goals, more assists and more points and keep my 5 M in cap space.

That’s the simple crux of it. That 5M needs to be justified, regardless of the reason why that cap gap exists.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

name 17 centers better than him.
I'll wait.

McDavid
Crosby
Malkin
Barkov
Draisaitl (questionable I know)
Mackinnon
Stamkos
Point
Tavares
Scheifele
Bergeron
Backstrom

Eichel/Seguin/Kuznetsov/Aho/Couturier/Larkin are close or at the same level.

I don't necessarily agree that he is as low as 17, but it's not that crazy.

 

[Dion TheFluff]

McDavid
Crosby
Malkin
Barkov
Draisaitl (questionable I know)
Mackinnon
Stamkos
Point
Tavares
Scheifele
Bergeron
Backstrom

Eichel/Seguin/Kuznetsov/Aho/Couturier/Larkin are close or at the same level.

I don't necessarily agree that he is as low as 17, but it's not that crazy.

after the top 5/6 (I would still have Malkin there) I would probably have him ranked from 7th to 12th with guys like Eichel, Tavares, Scheifele plus a couple of others. His production given the amount of ice time he is given and how mediocre his QOT at 5v5 are (especially compared to pretty much all of the other players listed spare a couple possibly) is pretty crazy.

 

[Dr Salt]

I'm sorry , but I can't wait till Matthews gets a few more mins and does basically **** all compared to now.

And mack on the leafs would easily be putting up 105-110pt seasons like we will see next year.

So just ignore the fact that Matthews has more points at even strength then MacKinnon. Okay then.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Dahlin or Mack. A really tough choice but I went Dahlin.

Matthews third. I don’t think he’s even the best player on the Leafs.

 

[Mac2Rants]

So just ignore the fact that Matthews has more points at even strength then MacKinnon. Okay then.

That all you got man? and your little p/60 argument?

 

[Mac2Rants]

Dahlin or Mack. A really tough choice but I went Dahlin.

Matthews third. I don’t think he’s even the best player on the Leafs.

I'm almost on the same level with you I believe Marner will surpass him

 

[cgf]

And what about the 3 seasons that followed MacKinnon's Calder season? Hot ass garbage.

lol leafs fans

 

[razkaz]

I’m not really disagreeing with what you’re saying.

But the problem is, it’s mostly irrelevant to what the discussion of this thread is. I’m not, not have I ever suggested Matthews will Not or has not lived up to his contract.
I’m fully aware that the Avs are lucky with the timing of Mackinnons extension. Again though, generally irrelevant.

This discussion is simply about which of the 3 players you would take moving forward taking into account all aspects.

It’s Mack at 6.3 or Matthews at 11.6. I have no issue with someone saying Matthews. I have issue with people using their past as the justification. That’s not the question. The question is about moving forward between the two. So if you’re going to say Matthews, you need to justify the siginificant cost.

You are actually admitting you expect him to produce less than Mackinnon but to score 5-10 more goals. So less points but more goals.

No offense. But I’ll take my few less goals, more assists and more points and keep my 5 M in cap space.

That’s the simple crux of it. That 5M needs to be justified, regardless of the reason why that cap gap exists.

Not sure what the benefit of ignoring the past when trying to predict the future and how contracts are given. I mean, no GM in the league will look at the current season as the metric going into contract negotiations. Everything should be taken into account, past, present, projection, comparables etc. So yes, past performance always should be included.

If we were to believe that Dahlin will be a generational Defenseman and that Doughty already has a 11M contract and if Karlsson ends up making more than that, then what do you think Dahlin's contract will look like when he's done his ELC? Would it be justified then to say that in the 2021/2022 season Morgan Rielly would be worth way more than Dahlin because of how much cheaper he is?

Would you say that Marchand is worth more than McDavid then? Marchand at 6M to McDavind at 12.5M. Does McDavid need 200pts to justify his contract or are these comparisons kind of silly unless you take everything into account?

 

[tucker3434]

The hoops Matthews fans will jump through to put him on MacKinnon’s level... ridiculous.

Next year we’ll have totally run dry on the “but at the same age” arguments as Mack broke out at 22. Can’t wait to see if Matthews is a Hart finalist next season...