Matthews vs MacKinnon vs Dahlin - Who do you take moving forward?

[OilCanada92]

I see your point. You're saying that Matthews is much more likely to reach his peak sooner than than those other guys you mentioned because he was further along in his development due to his size. But the fact remains that every year he's been in the league, he has improved. Went from 70 point pace to 80 to 90. His development in fact has been pretty linear. I'm not saying he's getting 100 points or 100 point pace next season but there's a good chance that he has not yet hit his peak, and will one day be the 100 point player that Mackinnon is right now, maybe better.
He's had a better ppg pace than all those guys except Marner this year, so they haven't really caught up yet.

Outside of the first 7 games of the season, he is pretty much a point per game player this season. His pace has been on a steady decline. I'm not saying ignore the hot start, but rather acknowledge it as the outlier it seems to be. For the last two seasons, Matthews has been a point per game player, who just happened to have a great 7 games to start the season so his stats are padded. An argument could even be made that just being a point per game player for the last 57 games is actually a regression considering how much scoring is up this season.

 

[Thenameless]

Matthews has shown more promise than Mackinnon. I can’t even imagine where Matthews will be in two years, let alone three. And Matthews has also shown more promise than Dahlin.

Really? More promise than MacKinnon who has been near the top of the scoring leaders the last two years? I know Matthews has had some pretty good seasons, but development is not always linear (look at Laine). MacKinnon's breakout has him near the very top of all players after McDavid. There's no guarantee that Matthews ever hits that level. I agree that it's a bit too early to tell what Dahlin will be like in the future.

 

[mitchthemitch]

Outside of the first 7 games of the season, he is pretty much a point per game player this season. His pace has been on a steady decline. I'm not saying ignore the hot start, but rather acknowledge it as the outlier it seems to be. For the last two seasons, Matthews has been a point per game player, who just happened to have a great 7 games to start the season so his stats are padded. An argument could even be made that just being a point per game player for the last 57 games is actually a regression considering how much scoring is up this season.

But the same thing could be applied to all players then ie Mackinnon's 12 game stint in November when he was at a 2 ppg pace, Petersson's first 9 games. You'd have to consider those outliers as well, and all hot streaks that players have had where they are pacing way above their season pace. And I'm sure that if we look at Matthews game logs from last year we'd also find another outlier.
I have no problem acknowledging the first 7 games as an outlier. But every time another player takes their game to another level for a few games, that should also be considered an outlier.
At the end of the day you'll find that most superstars have these outliers at some points in their seasons (Ovechkin?). It's the fact that they can take their game to another level and dominate the league for some time that makes them a superstar.

 

[Sojourn]

Why's everyone forgetting that MacKinnon was hot ass garbage during his first FOUR seasons in the league, while Matthews was a PPG player his 2nd season lmao. "Matthews can only dream of reaching at this point"

Yes MacKinnon has been great for two seasons, but let's not pretend he's on a completely different tier unattainable by Matthews

All due respect, but Matthews scored 63 points in 62 games. He was a PPG player who missed 20 games, and was only 1 point over a PPG pace at that point. Calling him a PPG player during that season would be just as accurate(and misleading) as saying he wasn't a 70-point player in his second season.

Both might be accurate, but neither is really true.

Right now, I absolutely think it's fair to say that MacKinnon is on a different tier. Not an unattainable one, but development isn't linear and a faster start to a career is no guarantee a player will be better. Kucherov didn't start as well as Matthews either, and he currently has 122 points in 78 games. Are you going to try to tell people that Matthews is going to be better because he had a better start to his career? Good luck with that.

I'd pick MacKinnon over Matthews simply because he has a much better contract, while also being better. It would be one thing if Matthews had a full 8 years at his salary, but we're talking 5 years here. MacKinnon is signed for one year less than Matthews right now, but for significantly less money, and he's also out-produced Matthews both in terms of pace and actual points(by a lot). That's kind of a no-brainer. The better player, with a small age difference, for a lot less money, and only a year difference in their contracts? That's an easy choice.

Dahlin is another matter, and a much tougher choice. It's tough to compare a forward's rookie season to a defenseman's, and both players had excellent rookie seasons. Matthews is more proven, and currently better, but that contract really doesn't help his case any. Also, an inability to stay healthy in 2 of 3 seasons hurts his case a bit too.

 

[nbwingsfan]

I think people’s rationale is actually the leaf on his sweater personally

I mean it's quite clearly the contract. Matthews is on the same level as MacKinnon, and has been better at the same age (not as relevant as some think though), but Mack is paid almost half as much.

With the ~$5M in cap savings the Leafs for example would lose all of their cap worries they have going into next season.

 

[Taluss]

Dahlin
MacKinnon

Matthew's

 

[Face Of Bear]

Matthews has looked the best when you compare their draft + X years. Mackinnon gets the nod over Dahlin since he's more proven.

Matthews-MacKinnon-Dahlin

 

[razkaz]

being on pace and actual production are 2 different things

back in October when AM was on his hot streak, people were saying he was the best player in the world and that he would contend for the AR and Rocket

where is he now? pace doesn't mean **** and y'all need to get out of this fantasy. the fact is, is that AM is showing signs of being injury prone, and if that is the case, it GREATLY hinders him moving forward for any GM wanting him. y'all don't wanna bring that up but it's facts

Yet Mackinnon is about to complete just his 2nd full 82 games in 6 years.

Tell me more of these delicious "facts"

 

[Varan]

Yet Mackinnon is about to complete just his 2nd full 82 games in 6 years.

Tell me more of these delicious "facts"

third 82 game season actually, and the funny part is that only one season has MacK played less than 72 games (13-14) so idk where you’re getting this notion that he’s injury prone.

AM already has 2 seasons of 70 under his belt in 3 seasons. so he’s spent 2/3 of his career not playing a full season eh

you want more facts?

 

[Team Cozens]

Dahlin/Mack/Matthews

 

[BayStreetBully]

Really? More promise than MacKinnon who has been near the top of the scoring leaders the last two years? I know Matthews has had some pretty good seasons, but development is not always linear (look at Laine). MacKinnon's breakout has him near the very top of all players after McDavid. There's no guarantee that Matthews ever hits that level. I agree that it's a bit too early to tell what Dahlin will be like in the future.

Since 1996, only 8 players have scored at a 90 point pace (1.1 PPG) with at least 50 GP by the age of 21:

Crosby
Ovechkin
Malkin
Stamkos
Staal
McDavid
Marner
Matthews

That’s an exclusive group. Bunch of future hall of famers and cup winners, plus McDavid/Matthews/Marner. Sounds like Matthews sure has some promise to me. Even if development isn’t linear for players as a whole (like you said, look at Laine), are you really going to bet against Matthews based on what he’s shown to age 21? No sincere person would.

 

[Thenameless]

Even if development isn’t linear for players as a whole (like you said, look at Laine), are you really going to bet against Matthews based on what he’s shown to age 21? No sincere person would.

I wouldn't necessarily bet against him becoming a great player, but I'd also say that MacKinnon has already reached that level, and now looks to be maintaining it (we had to see this year, if last year was just a fluke). You know the old "bird in the hand thing". Showing promise is nice, but promise is not equal to actually being there.

 

[BayStreetBully]

I wouldn't necessarily bet against him becoming a great player, but I'd also say that MacKinnon has already reached that level, and now looks to be maintaining it (we had to see this year, if last year was just a fluke). You know the old "bird in the hand thing". Showing promise is nice, but promise is not equal to actually being there.

The way Matthews is trending, he can surpass what prime Mackinnon is doing now. When you look at the quality of the 8 players I noted above, it shows Matthews is in a special group. Only those 8 were good enough to produce at a 90 point pace by the age of 21. Those players are the best of the best in the game. Matthews is producing at a 90 point pace at age 21, something Mackinnon couldn’t do. Matthews’ production has been trending upward all 3 years he’s been in the league. Again, I get your point about development not being linear, but Matthews isn’t just any player.

Is Mackinnon a mere bird in the hand? Then Matthews is an eagle in the bush.

 

[razkaz]

third 82 game season actually, and the funny part is that only one season has MacK played less than 72 games (13-14) so idk where you’re getting this notion that he’s injury prone.

AM already has 2 seasons of 70 under his belt in 3 seasons. so he’s spent 2/3 of his career not playing a full season eh

you want more facts?

3rd year, my mistake. I also think it's rather funny the goalposts are now moving to anything played over 70 games is considered almost a full year but anything under 70 means injury prone

 

[Master P]

1.Mack
2.Dahlin
...

 

[Varan]

3rd year, my mistake. I also think it's rather funny the goalposts are now moving to anything played over 70 games is considered almost a full year but anything under 70 means injury prone

well let's see, AM can only play up to 68 games this season, and he played 64 last season. so i chose 70 as a breaking point (unless you want me to be really specific and say 69 games)

also, when you're that young and so early in your career, and you have already missed almost 1/4 of a season and the next season you already missed 14 games? that is cause for concern

 

[mattydamon]

Man some of these arguments, one way or another, are so over the top they just look straight up stupid.

I don't get how you can make some of these assertions and not see how completely homer blind they are - like where is the objectivity; how can someone write the things they write, read it and post it and not think 'hot damn this is hyperbole'.

It's actually insane.

 

[Volica]

This really depends on what people are pegging Matthews and Dahlin.

If Dahlin gets to where people think he’s heading, it’s hard to vote against s guy who’ll win multiple Norris’ and be a top D in the league for the next 15 years.

Matthews is an monster goal scorer but essentially just that. He’s somewhere between where Leafs fans peg him and where ‘haters’ peg him. He’s like a top 15/18 centre in the league; which is damn impressive for his age. He has the ability to be a top 5 centre in this league I believe.

Mack is a legit top 5 centre in this league, but he’s also older than the other guys and likely a complete package minus some more two way growth.

Dunno. Moving forward? Do I keep Mack at his ridiculous contract? That’s a huge factor too.

 

[Foppberg]

Mack/Dahlin

Matthews

 

[Dr Salt]

From a pure talent or impact standpoint its close but Matthews is one for me. I'll take Dahlin over MacKinnon because I feel #1 guys on the defense are more valuable if its close enough. Then add other factors like contracts and it basically flips to MacKinnon as #1 because of the bargain he is on Dahlin as 2 and Matthews at 3.

 

[Dr Salt]

WTF LOL WHY ARE THE TWO MOST VOTED OPTIONS THE ONES WITH MATTHEWS LAST

i swear man dude cant catch a break on this site

ill go Matthews MacKinnon Dahlin. theres potential for change there but i feel decently confident in that order.

I think a lot of people are looking at contract, and team control.

 

[Tralfamadore]

Since 1996, only 8 players have scored at a 90 point pace (1.1 PPG) with at least 50 GP by the age of 21:

Crosby
Ovechkin
Malkin
Stamkos
Staal
McDavid
Marner
Matthews

That’s an exclusive group. Bunch of future hall of famers and cup winners, plus McDavid/Matthews/Marner. Sounds like Matthews sure has some promise to me. Even if development isn’t linear for players as a whole (like you said, look at Laine), are you really going to bet against Matthews based on what he’s shown to age 21? No sincere person would.

Funny how you list a bunch of players who have actually hit 90 points and include Matthews. You guys need to stop with this ppg/pace argument. It's not a very good one. I even did the math AM is just barely on pace for 90 points this season but in reality won't even break 75. Talk to me when he puts up actual back to back 97 point seasons and we can put him near MacKinnon.

 

[Muffin]

I think a lot of people are looking at contract, and team control.

No because MacKinnon put up back to back 90+ points season and Matthews cracked 70 points for the first time in his career.
Stop it with the on paced for arguments, MacKinnon was on paced for like 120 points last year but it doesn't mean he hit it.

 

[Dr Salt]

No because MacKinnon put up back to back 90+ points season and Matthews cracked 70 points for the first time in his career.
Stop it with the on paced for arguments, MacKinnon was on paced for like 120 points last year but it doesn't mean he hit it.

Per 60 stats matter. Filtering for ES matters. Despite playing less games Matthews has more even strength points and primary points then Mac, and thats considering he's played way less minutes/games. Matthews has 2.96 points per 6o while Mac has 2.10. Primary points Matthews has 2.37 while Mac has 1.70.

Edit: forgot to mention even strength Matthews has 50 to Mac's 48 and Matthews has 40 primary to Mac's 39. Then add the fact he played a lot less minutes.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Mackinnon. He is a much better playmaker than Matthews. While being a 40 goal scorer. That's the edge. Don't think Dahlin is up to these 2 yet, really should not be in the poll. Give it a few more years.