Prospect Info: Matthew Perkins: 119th Overall 2023 Draft (Youngstown) - C

[F A N]

Is there a change in the way weights are listed? There seems to be way more kids coming in at less than 160lbs now.

Anyways, seem to have some offensive potential here.

 

[MS]

For guys like this to play up levels you generally want to see skating and compete listed as plus traits and that doesn't appear to be the case here, along with the lack of production. Not a fan of this.

 

[F A N]

For guys like this to play up levels you generally want to see skating and compete listed as plus traits and that doesn't appear to be the case here, along with the lack of production. Not a fan of this.

At some point they all compete - Allvin

From the very little of what I have read about him it seems that he has relatively high hockey IQ? He does have a slight frame that could bold well in terms of improving his skating?

Could have traded down and drafted him then I think.

 

[Vector]

Pronman's brief comments.

Perkins is a very good skater with two-way smarts. He’s not that big and while he is skilled, it’s not amazing skill, especially for a smaller forward.

 

[biturbo19]

I thought this was supposed to be the deepest draft for 18-year olds in recent history.....what happened?

Did the pool of first-year, draft eligible players dry up that quickly?

The thing is, when people talk about a "deep" draft, it's generally just about the quality of the 1st round as well as how much of that spills over into the 2nd round. This draft had an extremely good #1, a really strong Top-5ish, Top-10/15 range had very good prospects, and the range of credible "1st round caliber" guys stretched a pretty decent ways into the 2nd round.


Beyond that...draft lists and projections start to diverge so much, it becomes basically a crapshoot. You can't reasonably project the "depth" of the 4th round of a draft. Statistically, basically every draft levels off to a very similar longshot of even getting NHL games out of a player. At that point, you've got like 1:4 or 1:5 shot of getting an NHL player at best. And that's being really generous with a threshold for "NHL Player" success. That's like, Linden Vey is a "success". Markus Granlund was a resounding success who played like 3 times that many NHL games. Philip Larsen was a successful defenceman pick. Virtanen was a "successful" Top-10 pick. For context, and an illustration...

The chance of getting an actual "impact player" out of those rounds is massively lower and basically flat. At that point, you're angling toward just identifying the outliers who become late round stars who convince everyone that they're going to find the next hidden gem. But you might get 1 of those guys in a round out of all 30 teams, or you might only get one or two in the entirety of the 4-7th rounds. But that's not really what the "depth" of a draft is about, because it's entirely focusing on extremely low percentage outlier outcomes and that's goofy.


So when they say this draft was "deep" that really only applied to the 1st and 2nd rounds. Where we had 3 picks, but decided to only have 1 instead. The 3rd-7th round is always a crapshoot of flawed prospects and shots in the dark with various teams always trying to adjust strategies to somehow reliably beat the average but rarely succeeding.



Though we have seemed to lag consistently through like 4 different regimes or more when it comes to batting even average in those late round crapshoots.


I don't like this particular pick on profile...but i'm not really familiar with him so who knows. Seems plausible this is exactly the sort of pick that hurts our average. But there's really no point talking about "depth" of the 4th round like that. It's just teams differentiating themselves very slightly based on their strategy or approach.

 

[VanJack]

Pronman's brief comments.

Perkins is a very good skater with two-way smarts. He’s not that big and while he is skilled, it’s not amazing skill, especially for a smaller forward.

A younger version of Max Sasson?

Pronman's brief comments.

Perkins is a very good skater with two-way smarts. He’s not that big and while he is skilled, it’s not amazing skill, especially for a smaller forward.

A younger version of Max Sasson?

 

[Bitz and Bites]

A younger version of Max Sasson?


A younger version of Max Sasson?

That would be a good outcome if he earns an NHL contract and can play in the AHL and not look overwhelmed.

 

[jigsaw99]

Pronman's brief comments.

Perkins is a very good skater with two-way smarts. He’s not that big and while he is skilled, it’s not amazing skill, especially for a smaller forward.

as pedestrian as it gets

 

[wetcoast]

Well they better hope the first 3 d-picks turn into gems cause wow has this been a miserable 4th round. two NCAA over-agers and a large pylon winger? Yikes.

The big Swede at least looks like a reasonable project but the 2 NCAA guys weren't all that exciting but it's the 4th round people are expecting too much here.

If their first rounder turns out as good as expected and Hunter makes a serviceable NHL Dman this draft will be a success.

 

[Izzy Goodenough]

The draft analysts (Robinson etc.) are saying this is a wasted pick.
They should fire their Scouting staff and hire a Mr. Potatohead with specialized knowledge of hockey.

 

[MarkMM]

Now that the main roster is well on its way to being re-set the next things I'd like to see management tackle would be the practice arena and amateur scouting.