Speculation: Matt Duchene

DaveMatthew

Bring in Peter
Apr 13, 2005
14,507
13,180
Ott
With all the talk about Karlsson, I find it odd that nobody's talking about Duchene. He's in the exact same situation: same age, last year of his contract, has paid lip service to re-signing here - but we all know he wants to play for a contender.

1) Why are people assuming that he's going to re-sign? Especially after we just traded our top line LWer for Mikkel Boedker and are about to trade away the best defenseman in the league?

Everyone will throw out the local Haliburton stuff, but in reality, that's all meaningless. Karlsson married an Ottawa girl, just finished renovating a multi-million dollar house in the Glebe, joined the Royal Ottawa Golf Club this summer, and he's still on his way out.

Karlsson will be back here in the summers, and Duchene will still spend his offseason in Haliburton, no matter where they play during the season.

2) What's his value? Paul Stastny just signed for 6.5/year, and Duchene is better and younger than him. Ryan O'Reilly makes 7.5/year, and Duchene is as good, if not better, than him. Ryan Johansen makes 8/year. Johansen and O'Reilly are two pretty good comparables. Do we think Melnyk will be willing to pay Duchene 64-70 million over 8 years?

3) If Duchene indicates that he wants to play out this year to see how the team shapes up (seems reasonable from his end) before discussing a contract, do you trade him now?
 

h2owned

Registered User
Nov 17, 2009
1,026
204
Ottawa, Ontario
1) Blind faith, with all the other bad stuff that's happened don't want to think about one more.

2) Can't see him getting less than 8m per 7 or 8 years.

3) Yes, start looking, barring a miracle it looks like the writings on the wall for how this season will go.
 

Karl Prime

Registered User
Feb 13, 2017
4,582
4,310
He said he wanted to come to Ottawa to have a chance at winning. Obviously if EK is traded it's likely 3 years at least before the team remotely looks like a playoff team again, so I don't know why he'd want to stay.
 

stempniaksen

Registered User
Oct 12, 2008
11,005
4,263
This is more speculation than anything else, but I really think this whole "Duchene wants to play for a contender" thing is overblown. He never had an issue missing the playoffs with Colorado when he was being treated as their franchise player. Once his name started coming up in trade rumours he was (obviously) disappointed and likely wanted a fresh start with an organization that would show him loyalty. If (when) EK is dealt, the organization will likely sit down with Duchene and talk about MD as the new franchise player (with Stone) and offer him a bigger deal than he would get elsewhere (the Bobby Ryan treatment). Duchene seems genuinely happy to be closer to home, and I think he's genuinely happy to be considered one of the faces of the franchise. It could all just be lip service, and his number one priority may very well be winning a cup, but I think Ottawa has enough to offer that he'll re-up on a slight overpay of a contract.
 

Karl Prime

Registered User
Feb 13, 2017
4,582
4,310
This is more speculation than anything else, but I really think this whole "Duchene wants to play for a contender" thing is overblown. He never had an issue missing the playoffs with Colorado when he was being treated as their franchise player. Once his name started coming up in trade rumours he was (obviously) disappointed and likely wanted a fresh start with an organization that would show him loyalty. If (when) EK is dealt, the organization will likely sit down with Duchene and talk about MD as the new franchise player (with Stone) and offer him a bigger deal than he would get elsewhere (the Bobby Ryan treatment). Duchene seems genuinely happy to be closer to home, and I think he's genuinely happy to be considered one of the faces of the franchise. It could all just be lip service, and his number one priority may very well be winning a cup, but I think Ottawa has enough to offer that he'll re-up on a slight overpay of a contract.

If they didn't offer full value for EK (we don't know), I doubt they overpay for Duchene.
 

Nac Mac Feegle

wee & free
Jun 10, 2011
34,828
9,251
If we're keeping him long-term, the first order of business should be to drop him in some holy water, or hire a witch to take the hex off him. Dude has some sort of freaky curse happening right now.
 
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NyQuil

Big F$&*in Q
Jan 5, 2005
95,347
59,255
Ottawa, ON
If we're keeping him long-term, the first order of business should be to drop him in some holy water, or hire a witch to take the hex off him. Dude has some sort of freaky curse happening right now.

Well, he is playing for the Ottawa Senators, so there's definitely some truth to that.

WAIT A SECOND, AFTER HE WAS TRADED HERE THE TEAM WENT INTO MELTDOWN.

KILL HIM WITH FIRE!
 
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stempniaksen

Registered User
Oct 12, 2008
11,005
4,263
If they didn't offer full value for EK (we don't know), I doubt they overpay for Duchene.

This is the Ottawa Senators we're talking about. There's no rhyme or reason to anything they do, they just (over) react to everything.

Melnyk and Dorion will somehow be "surprised" by the fan backlash to a Karlsson deal and will use Duchene and/or Stone signing as the shiny new toy to try and distract the fan base.

Honestly, I'd be surprised if Duchene was still un-signed a week after the inevitable Karlsson move.
 

tony d

Registered User
Jun 23, 2007
76,590
4,549
Behind A Tree
Yeah, the Duchene situation will be 1 to watch as well. Who knows? We might keep him as a new focal point of our team, I mean we have to reach the cap somehow.
 

ThreePosts

Registered User
Jun 21, 2018
173
122
If they didn't offer full value for EK (we don't know), I doubt they overpay for Duchene.
I don’t know for sure obviously, but I believe there’s more to the EK situation than just $, there’s definitely issues between EK and ownership, affecting his willingness to re-sign here and their willingness to pay him.

I’m not aware of any similar issues with Stone or Duchene, my guess is they will push hard to re-sign both, especially after what we paid to get Duchy.

I’m guessing $8.5M AAV for Duchy and $7.5M AAV for Stone.
 
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Oct 10, 2010
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They are going to overpay him and we'll end up trading our best player ( at that point) down the road to get rid of Duchene's contract lol
 
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Oct 10, 2010
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I don’t know for sure obviously, but I believe there’s more to the EK situation than just $, there’s definitely issues between EK and ownership, affecting his willingness to re-sign here and their willingness to pay him.

I’m not aware of any similar issues with Stone or Duchene, my guess is they will push hard to re-sign both, especially after what we paid to get Duchy.

I’m guessing $8.5M AAV for Duchy and $7.5M AAV for Stone.
Yeah, i think those numbers will be close to bang on personally.
I pray they aren't signed for 8 years but praying likely won't be good enough lol
 
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Oct 10, 2010
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I hope he doesn’t re-sign, at this point I just want to see it all collapse while Colorado drafts Hughes so I can hear Melnyk’s excuse
They don't give two f***s about the pick they haven't done a single thing to improve and we are losing our HOF player.

They are asking for further embarrassment
 

Ice-Tray

Registered User
Jan 31, 2006
16,288
8,100
Victoria
Rather than continuing to bring up the "he wanted to come to Ottawa to win therefore he won't resign" narrative, why not look to the interview he gave after his exit interviews AFTER the terrible season we just had. He said he heard the the plan for the future from PD and was on board with it and excited for the season to start. He has already told us that he wants to stay in Ottawa, after the terrible season, knowing what PD's plan was for the future.

Given that EK has been rumoured to be on the ,move from the TDL onwards, this has likely been part of the plan all along, or at least one of the possible outcomes given EK gets to decide as much as the team.

I don't think we have any reason to worry about Duchene or Stone. They are both aware of the state of the team, and have both stated that they want to be part of the solution, which is different than EK saying that he loves Ottawa and would like to stay.

I don't think I'm being overly optimistic here, I think this guy likes what he sees from the organization and wants to stay. If we remove the EM disaster from the equation, we actually have a bunch of solid players and an excellent crop of prospects coming in. Add assets from an EK trade and I think we'll be in good stead going forward.

A sale of the team once the new arena deal is finalized would be the final move to bring us around. :)
 

Cat Herder

Formerly BigSensFan
Sep 21, 2006
2,599
442
Belle River,On
If they didn't offer full value for EK (we don't know), I doubt they overpay for Duchene.


give it a break.. if what Stevenson reported is true, then 10 million a season for 8 years is not lowballing. The only way that 10 million per is an insult is if the Sens tabled it and said "Take it or leave it" (which we have no idea what happened)

I am no fan of Melnyk, but you guys saying 10 million is somehow an insult is laughable.. it is entirely possible that Karlsson wants a change of scenery and would not have accepted ANY offer
 
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