Value of: Matt Duchene to Ottawa

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JoemAvs

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Jul 2, 2011
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As a Leaf fan I want the sens to make this trade.

Cause you want to see them succeed?


Hell no from the Avs.

There are already 1000 Duchene to Ottawa threads. The response from Avs fans has always been the same..


It is either Chabot (+) or No Thank you from the Avs....
 

Big Bad Zad

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Mar 31, 2016
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Hmm weird sense of déjà vu. I suggest you read some of the last thread on this.

The value in a vacuum isn't that bad, but in the real world the Avs are looking for a LHD as they already have EJ and Barrie on the right side. Ceci is a good young player, not trying to bring him down, but if the Avs move a major piece on Duchene it needs to be for their biggest need, a young Lhd with #1 potential and pluses depending on how likely that potential is.

An example from Ottawa is Chabot, which Avs fans understand is a no from Ottawa as they are likely to lose a defenseman in the expansion draft and therefore are gonna need to keep their young #1 potential lhd. However this brings us to a stalemate. The Avs are not in a rush to move their players and can wait for the package they want. So no trade will happen.
 

Meeqs

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Aug 23, 2012
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Cody Ceci + Logan Brown + 2017 1st round pick

for

Matt Duchene

Not enough? Too much? Give me your opinions.

Hey I wanted to just say good job on your second post. You obviously took both teams needs into account and tried to make a fair deal.

The main issue is that Ott really doesn't have a Dman that makes a lot of sense to base the deal off of. Ceci's ceiling is probably too low for what the Avs are looking for and Ott fans are too high on Chabot, and there is a lot of risk for the Avs acquiring a player who still has so far to develop.

Also with how well the Sens are doing in a weak draft year makes the 1st slightly weaker than usual, as well as the Avs already being loaded up on center makes your good intentions of supplying the Avs a replacement (which in general was a great idea) probably not as applicable.

If it wasn't for the Avs situation essentially making it so that all that matters is which deal gives them the best Dman this deal would be more workable.

There have been a TON of Duchene too Ott posts as these type of deals are incredibly appealing on the Ott sides but in my personal opinions wont be enough to meet Sakics asking price.

Overall if these are the type of deals that you will be making posts on however HFB will be a better site for having you on it.
 
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JoemAvs

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Jul 2, 2011
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As a sens fan I dont want them to make that trade either.

Counter

To Anaheim: Brassard, White

To Ottawa: Duchene

To Colorado: Vatanen, Lazar, Anaheim 2nd.


No Chabot No deal.

Also Vatanen while a better player than Ceci might even be a worse fit for the Avs...


I counter with Beauchemin @ 50 % retained for Borowiecki + 4th.
 

Erik Alfredsson

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Jan 14, 2012
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No Chabot No deal.

Also Vatanen while a better player than Ceci might even be a worse fit for the Avs...


I counter with Beauchemin @ 50 % retained for Borowiecki + 4th.

Chabot is one the best dmen prospects not in the NHL, nobody's going to give him, or any prospect of his caliber up for Matt Duchene.
 

JoemAvs

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Jul 2, 2011
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Chabot is one the best dmen prospects not in the NHL, nobody's going to give him, or any prospect of his caliber up for Matt Duchene.


Exactly. He is a prospect not in the NHL.

Duchene is a 26 year old #1 C in the NHL (!) on a good contract with 2.4 years left


hfboards is funny that way. I am not saying that Ottawa should trade Chabot. They need him. Maybe even more than Duchene in the future.

But implying that the general idea of giving up a great prospect for a lousy #1 C is somehow a stupid idea and that no one would even consider that makes me laugh...
 

bert

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Nov 11, 2002
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No Chabot No deal.

Also Vatanen while a better player than Ceci might even be a worse fit for the Avs...


I counter with Beauchemin @ 50 % retained for Borowiecki + 4th.

Yeah Vatanen shoots right, good point not a good fit.
 

cgf

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Oct 15, 2010
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It's usually more like:

Sens fan: What would it take to get Duchene/Landeskog on our team?

Avs fan: Chabot+ as a start otherwise it doesn't make sense for us to move them

Sens fan: yeah, i don't wanna give up Chabot, but I still want Duchene/Landeskog; how about Ceci? He's really awesome, you guys just don't know how awesome he is, so you should accept him instead of Chabot

Avs fan: No thanks, Chabot or bust

Sens fan: You can't ask us for Chabot, he's off the table; but Ceci isn't...have I mentioned that he's awesome and you'd love him if you actually watched him play

Avs fan: Nah, Ceci doesn't have that high end potential that we'd need to make a core player trade. So if Chabot is off the table, so are Duchene/Landeskog.

Sens fan: Ceci's awesome though, he'd be great on your terrible defense that you should improve by adding more players who are incapable of locking up a spot on the top pairing; and your forwards suck & are over-rated anyways. So Give us Duchene/Landeskog for Ceci

Avs fan: I think we'll just keep them until somebody actually offers what we'd need to make a core player trade...

Sens fan: But Ceci...[avs fan exits thread]

....
 

IranCondraAffair

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Mar 10, 2006
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The same thing over and over. A trade can't be made for the following reasons:

1. Ottawa is very likely going to lose Ceci/Methot in the expansion draft. The top-4 is going to be downgraded as a result. Chabot is the only good defensive prospect Ottawa has to replace one of them long-term. They can lose one of those players, but not two. Chabot is more than expendable for a guy like Duchene if they can find a way to keep both Methot and Ceci, but otherwise, the deal is dead.

2. Colorado fans don't want Ceci. Period.

3. Ottawa has an internal budget and cannot send away picks and prospects for an established player anyway, even if they found a way to keep their entire top-4. They would need to send salary back anyway.

4. The premise of the deal is poor anyway because Ottawa doesn't really need Duchene at the moment due to current positional depth. Other areas are more of a concern. Even if Ottawa gave up the world for Duchene it probably wouldn't substantially improve the team compared to an upgrade elsewhere.

It would be like buying a third sports car when you really need an ATV. It doesn't matter how nice the spots car or how good a deal you get on the price, it won't help you much offroad.

That said, there's more than enough room for Ottawa to find a buyer for Ceci, Methot, etc.. and get other pieces or for Colorado to find a better fit for Duchene. It just isn't likely to happen right now unless Ottawa can find a way to exempt Ceci/Methot from expansion draft.

Any deal between Ottawa and Colorado just isn't going to work.
 

Erik Alfredsson

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Jan 14, 2012
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Exactly. He is a prospect not in the NHL.

Duchene is a 26 year old #1 C in the NHL (!) on a good contract with 2.4 years left


hfboards is funny that way. I am not saying that Ottawa should trade Chabot. They need him. Maybe even more than Duchene in the future.

But implying that the general idea of giving up a great prospect for a lousy #1 C is somehow a stupid idea and that no one would even consider that makes me laugh...

Thing is most teams already have a centerman better or just as good as Duchene, so they're not going to move a prospect of Chabot's caliber for him, unless they have an abundance of them. There might be a team out there like that, but it isn't Ottawa.
 

Meeqs

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As a sens fan I dont want them to make that trade either.

Counter

To Anaheim: Brassard, White

To Ottawa: Duchene

To Colorado: Vatanen, Lazar, Anaheim 2nd.

This is honestly awful. Lazar has absolutely 0 value and is a bust, guy has a single point in 20+ games. Vatanen is the exact same player as Barrie and a low 2nd in a weak draft.
 

BurgoShark

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Jul 1, 2004
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I agree in principle with everything you've said here, but want to add a few things ...

1. Ottawa is very likely going to lose Ceci/Methot in the expansion draft. The top-4 is going to be downgraded as a result. Chabot is the only good defensive prospect Ottawa has to replace one of them long-term. They can lose one of those players, but not two. Chabot is more than expendable for a guy like Duchene if they can find a way to keep both Methot and Ceci, but otherwise, the deal is dead.

Ottawa fans keep talking as losing one of these guys is a certainty. It's not. There are several other scenarios which would see the top 4 remain. Although I would imagine that the team wouldn't trade Chabot unless they knew for sure they had this under control.

2. Colorado fans don't want Ceci. Period.
That's the theme isn't it. It is very surprising. I know Sens fans whinge about him a bit but only because he is playing #2 minutes when he should be playing #4 minutes. I think this is more about the fact that he is RHD more than anything else. If Colorado wanted to save some cap space by moving Barrie I think Ceci would be fine behind Johnson, but they really need a better LHD. I think Ceci's "real life" value is more than what Avs fans tend to attribute. Ultimately I think Ottawa values Ceci a lot and he is still developing (and on a bridge deal) so they are not too willing to give up on him. I based on money think if Ottawa HAS to lose a defenseman it would make more sense to trade Methot for Duchene.

3. Ottawa has an internal budget and cannot send away picks and prospects for an established player anyway, even if they found a way to keep their entire top-4. They would need to send salary back anyway.
Yep - this is why most of these threads tend to end up having Bobby Ryan as a salary dump - which is dumb. If Colorado is rebuilding they don't want Ryan.

4. The premise of the deal is poor anyway because Ottawa doesn't really need Duchene at the moment due to current positional depth. Other areas are more of a concern. Even if Ottawa gave up the world for Duchene it probably wouldn't substantially improve the team compared to an upgrade elsewhere.
Duchene can play on the either wing and is a gun a faceoffs so I wouldn't exactly say his presence wouldn't help. Imagine what Duchene would do on the left side with Turris and Ryan ... or how much better Dzingel would be when he's down on the 3rd/4th line playing against 3rd pairings ... or how Duchene might look on the RW with say ... Brassard and Smith ... or down behind the goal line on the second power play unit looking for a Ryan/Brassard one-timer... or stepping in and winning a critical defensive zone face-off after his centreman gets kicked out. If you add a guy like Duchene to your roster there are a dozen ways it can improve the team.

That said, there's more than enough room for Ottawa to find a buyer for Ceci, Methot, etc.. and get other pieces or for Colorado to find a better fit for Duchene. It just isn't likely to happen right now unless Ottawa can find a way to exempt Ceci/Methot from expansion draft.
There's a lot more chance of his happening after the season than today. As you said, Ottawa simply can't acquire a $6m player without shedding ... but moving Methot the other way ($4.9m) plus the savings from MacArthur on LTIR would get it done - no way Ottawa trades Methot or Ceci during a playoff race, but between Arpil and the expansion draft? Sure.

Any deal between Ottawa and Colorado just isn't going to work.

I wouldn't say "any deal", but any deal whereby Ottawa loses a top 4 defenseman while holding down a playoff spot is a non starter... if they making a big splash I'd say that the best assets they can put on the table are White, Brown, 1st round pick, Francis Perron, and Andreas Englund. If a deal can't be done by combining those pieces it's not happening.
 

Neiler

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Jul 16, 2006
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As much as I'd like to have both, of the Colorado players that seem to be available Landeskog makes more sense for Ottawa.

They have Turris and just got Brassard, but they don't have Mac back this year and who knows how the future goes. Getting a top six LW would be great.

Waiting for White or Brown to develop and take someone's job would be wise as much as I hate to admit it. The other of the two could go in a deal.
 
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