Speculation: Matt Duchene Megathread - All News/Proposals Go Here

[Mathew Barzal]

Isn't it pretty much a forgone conclusion Duchene is an Av to start the year now?

 

[Cash for Nash]

Hmm, who would be the decent prospect?

Somebody not Bjork, Carlsson, PLD....Maybe.....Milano/Abramov but I wouldn't do add either of those guys to deal.

 

[GTislanders]

Isn't it pretty much a forgone conclusion Duchene is an Av to start the year now?

Yeah, all because of you. Good job!

 

[GTislanders]

I agree. Frankly, Jordan Eberle is a comparable, and he netted Strome.

Two totally different players and positions. He certainly isnt worth a barzal type, thats for sure.

 

[Boxscore]

Isn't it pretty much a forgone conclusion Duchene is an Av to start the year now?

Maybe Sakic's long ball plan is really to keep his team in tact and try to end up drafting either Dahlin or Svechnikov next year

By making a culture trade (Duchene) there's a chance the Avs' chemistry can improve and the might win their way out of a top 2 pick (or get very unlucky again).

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

I never heard of a straight up swap there Murray/Duchene. I think everyone assumes a 1st would be sent to COL as well. Maybe a decent prospect as well.

I think you're right about it starting with Murray and a 1st. I think the issue is the quality and quantity of the prospects being included. I think Sakic has questions about Murray and doesn't want to pay full price on him, so he doesn't value him as enough to get out of the 4 pieces category that McKenzie mentioned in February. It seems like Columbus wants it to be 1 B prospect, and the Avs would want either an A prospect (like Dubois) or 2 B propsects.

 

[CrosbyMalkin]

The whole notion of "two-year rental" is absurd. Matt Duchene is worth, to me, two firsts and a B-level prospect. No blue-chippers unless we're talking a pretty much straight up deal.

I think looking what Drouin got back who is younger and most likely a better player than Duchene going forward it is hard to imagine Duchene bringing in the asking price. Hall also I consider a better forward and he also did not bring in anything like this asking price. After an 18 goal 41 point season at $6 million cap hit I just don't see how they think they are going to get a higher value then those young forwards. Honestly if Duchene had another season like last year you would have to give other teams a pick or prospect just to take him and I am no overstating this point. If a player had 18 goals and 41 points 2 seasons in a row no team would want that $6 million cap hit.

At this point you have teams ready to pay up with the belief of a bounce back season with good reason but thinking he is worth the same as the year before coming off a 30 goal season just is not going to happen. The Pens gave up less for Kessel who is clearly a better player and with 5 years of control compared to 2.

 

[booyakasha]

I agree. Frankly, Jordan Eberle is a comparable, and he netted Strome.

I agree.

Matt Duchene - 572GP 174G 244A 418Pts best season is 70 points, and most goals scored in a season is 30.

0.73 PPG career
0.30 GPG career
worst year +/- was last year at -34 (yikes)

Jordan Eberle - 507GP 165G 217A 382Pts best season 34 goals and 76 points.

0.75 PPG career
0.33 GPG career
worst year +/- was -16


both aren't very good defensively, about the same TBH. Duchene gets really over rated.

Only difference is MD is a centre.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Maybe Sakic's long ball plan is really to keep his team in tact and try to end up drafting either Dahlin or Svechnikov next year

By making a culture trade (Duchene) there's a chance the Avs' chemistry can improve and the might win their way out of a top 2 pick (or get very unlucky again).

Or McIsaac. A top 4 pick in the next draft has the chance to get us a decent LHD. Much better chance than trading Duchene for futures 1sts from playoff teams.

 

[Boxscore]

I think looking what Drouin got back who is younger and most likely a better player than Duchene going forward it is hard to imagine Duchene bringing in the asking price. Hall also I consider a better forward and he also did not bring in anything like this asking price. After an 18 goal 41 point season at $6 million cap hit I just don't see how they think they are going to get a higher value then those young forwards. Honestly if Duchene had another season like last year you would have to give other teams a pick or prospect just to take him and I am no overstating this point. If a player had 18 goals and 41 points 2 seasons in a row no team would want that $6 million cap hit.

At this point you have teams ready to pay up with the belief of a bounce back season with good reason but thinking he is worth the same as the year before coming off a 30 goal season just is not going to happen. The Pens gave up less for Kessel who is clearly a better player and with 5 years of control compared to 2.

Yeah, Drouin should not be the measuring stick for Duchene.

Drouin is better right now.

Drouin is 3 years younger.

Drouin already pre-negotiated an extension with Montreal before the trade and is under team control for 6 years as opposed to Duchene's 2.

And, even with that, Drouin was traded for ONE high-end prospect that would be akin to Duchene being traded straight up for Dubois.

I think Duchene to NSH for Fabbro, another decent prospect (not top-end), and a 1st would also be fair.

 

[Viqsi]

Okay, fair enough. In this instance, though, CBJ would be trading for a pretty killer forward in Duchene, so would that make PLD less of a need for CBJ in this scenario? Furthermore, what would be the additional pieces coming along with PLD if he were the main piece in a Duchene trade?

A little less - enough to justify moving him - but not so much that the price comes down significantly.

Adds would be relatively small, I think. Like, no A-list prospects.

* * *​

And where did I say that

Well, this is embarrassing. I could have sworn you were one of the folks who'd been pushing the whole Murray-as-a-throw-in angle, but having gone through the last three Duchene threads I can't find anything like a post like that by you. Mea culpa.

* * *​

https://www.fanragsports.com/nhl/friedman-reviews-dynamics-duchene-trade-situation/

That is completely ****ing absurd on Sakic's part if true. It's not enough to get the quality of player you want; it has to be done in a way that it actively hurts the other team past a certain threshold?

Utterly insane. That's the same sort of child logic that suggests we ought to be able to trade Wennberg for Crosby straight up, because both teams are losing their #1C.

* * *​

Nashville fan chiming in here....



Ryan Murray is a #5 on Columbus

Fair enough


When Columbus traded Johansen to us, Seth Jones was a #5 dman behind Weber/Josi/Ekholm/Ellis

Point being you can't evaluate it on minutes played.

That seemed to work out well for everyone

I've pointed this out before; the consensus response is "but Murray isn't as shiny as Jones". Naturally, the fact that Duchene shares a similar (if not as extreme) lack-of-shininess relationship with Johansen doesn't seem to properly register with them.

* * *​

I think the hold up is this:

Both sides agree Murray + 1st + something else

The dispute is:

COL fans think the + should be =/> than Murray (PLD, Carlsson, Bjork) while CBS fans think the + should be the smallest of the 3 pieces (Milano, other prospect).

Yep. You get a cookie.

 

[EdAVSfan]

If Columbus doesn't want to pay duchenes price tag, are their any other centers they can get for the price they want to pay.

Go get nugent-Hopkins, or kadri or bozak, etc.

One of them may be considered more reasonable.

 

[Viqsi]

If Columbus doesn't want to pay duchenes price tag, are their any other centers they can get for the price they want to pay.

Go get nugent-Hopkins, or kadri or bozak, etc.

One of them may be considered more reasonable.

If the Friedman report is true, it's less "pay the price tag" and more "unable to negotiate in good faith". If Sakic's honest approach to this is "that return doesn't hurt the other guy enough" rather than "that return doesn't help our team enough", then it was a complete waste of time to inquire. Which is rather frustrating.

As for other options - there's some, although our best option is starting to look like "go with what we have".

 

[Jackets16]

If Columbus doesn't want to pay duchenes price tag, are their any other centers they can get for the price they want to pay.

Go get nugent-Hopkins, or kadri or bozak, etc.

One of them may be considered more reasonable.

Just like with Duchene, I would rather we just go with who we have. Wennberg has improved every year and is only 22. I still think Dubois will be a very good center. I'd much rather keep our defensive depth than trade for a center who may be better than what we already have.

 

[EscapedGoat]

I think looking what Drouin got back who is younger and most likely a better player than Duchene going forward it is hard to imagine Duchene bringing in the asking price.

Am I taking crazy pills? Has duchenes one bad year really made everyone forget how good hes been before last season? Heres a comparison of their careers.

Year after draft: Duchene 55 points, Drouin back to minors.

Second year: Duchene 67 points, Drouin 32 points.

Third year: Duchene 28 points in 58 games (bad year for him), Drouin 10 points in 21 games, played in ahl and held out.

Fourth year: Duchene 43 points in 47 games (lockout year), Drouin 53 points in 73 games.

Fifth year. Duchene 70 points in 71 games, Drouin TBD.

I feel like people either think of Drouin as a 19 year old prospect (he's not) or people forget how effing good Duchene has been because of how terrible he was last year.

You look at those stats and take out the names and it's not even close who is the better player.

Now I'm not saying duchene now holds the same value as Drouin now. I'm not even saying that Drouin won't hit a few point per game seasons. But to say Drouin is the better player because of one off year for Duchene is too narrow minded for my liking.

 

[TaketheCannoli]

Am I taking crazy pills? Has duchenes one bad year really made everyone forget how good hes been before last season? Heres a comparison of their careers.

Year after draft: Duchene 55 points, Drouin back to minors.

Second year: Duchene 67 points, Drouin 32 points.

Third year: Duchene 28 points in 58 games (bad year for him), Drouin 10 points in 21 games, played in ahl and held out.

Fourth year: Duchene 43 points in 47 games (lockout year), Drouin 53 points in 73 games.

Fifth year. Duchene 70 points in 71 games, Drouin TBD.

I feel like people either think of Drouin as a 19 year old prospect (he's not) or people forget how effing good Duchene has been because of how terrible he was last year.

You look at those stats and take out the names and it's not even close who is the better player.

Now I'm not saying duchene now holds the same value as Drouin now. I'm not even saying that Drouin won't hit a few point per game seasons. But to say Drouin is the better player because of one off year for Duchene is too narrow minded for my liking.

Duchene's are ok stats for a top 6 forward, not good and certainly not great results and not #1 C results. He looks like an upper level #2. That's the type of return other GMs will likely pay.

 

[bohlmeister]

Isn't it pretty much a forgone conclusion Duchene is an Av to start the year now?

Well yeah. It is July 6th. There is no way they have enough time to work out a deal before the season starts. Just left it too long.

 

[jake07]

I think looking what Drouin got back who is younger and most likely a better player than Duchene going forward it is hard to imagine Duchene bringing in the asking price. Hall also I consider a better forward and he also did not bring in anything like this asking price. After an 18 goal 41 point season at $6 million cap hit I just don't see how they think they are going to get a higher value then those young forwards. Honestly if Duchene had another season like last year you would have to give other teams a pick or prospect just to take him and I am no overstating this point. If a player had 18 goals and 41 points 2 seasons in a row no team would want that $6 million cap hit.

At this point you have teams ready to pay up with the belief of a bounce back season with good reason but thinking he is worth the same as the year before coming off a 30 goal season just is not going to happen. The Pens gave up less for Kessel who is clearly a better player and with 5 years of control compared to 2.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Remember Murray was also on team NA in the WCH. Yeah, he was our 5th D, but he is also one of the more highly viewed young Dmen.

 

[GregSirico]

If Columbus doesn't want to pay duchenes price tag, are their any other centers they can get for the price they want to pay.

Go get nugent-Hopkins, or kadri or bozak, etc.

One of them may be considered more reasonable.

RNH and Bozak will both be moved. They are 100% available.

 

[EscapedGoat]

Duchene's are ok stats for a top 6 forward, not good and certainly not great results and not #1 C results. He looks like an upper level #2. That's the type of return other GMs will likely pay.

That wasn't my point at all. I was showing his stats to illustrate how his career has been far better than Drouins. But now that you responded with that, I might as well address it.

Since 2012-2013 Duchene is 16th overall in points for centres.

Yeah. Those are definitely "just good results". A whole 15 players have been better than him. He really needs to step it up.

 

[WannabeFinn]

That wasn't my point at all. I was showing his stats to illustrate how his career has been far better than Drouins. But now that you responded with that, I might as well address it.

Since 2012-2013 Duchene is 16th overall in points for centres.

Yeah. Those are definitely "just good results". A whole 15 players have been better than him. He really needs to step it up.

Wow so good. Show us his cumulative p/game or p/20. It'll paint a more accurate picture.

 

[Mathew Barzal]

Well yeah. It is July 6th. There is no way they have enough time to work out a deal before the season starts. Just left it too long.

I get that, it's just that most of the things Sakic's said so far have led me to believe he's not dealing Duchene for anything less than what thinks is fair value and he's only been lowballed so far in his eyes.

It sounds like he's content to wait till the next trade deadline because nothing thus far has come close to meeting his expectations.

 

[jrmysell]

Wow so good. Show us his cumulative p/game or p/20. It'll paint a more accurate picture.

Well from 2013 on (hockey analysis only goes 4 years through the past year, so to include his horrible year), he's 10th among C's in P/60 5v5. I'd say that qualifies as a #1 C, no? He's also 15th overall in points 5v5 since '13 or 6th among C's.

 

[TaketheCannoli]

Well from 2013 on (hockey analysis only goes 4 years through the past year, so to include his horrible year), he's 10th among C's in P/60 5v5. I'd say that qualifies as a #1 C, no? He's also 15th overall in points 5v5 since '13 or 6th among C's.

On the other hand for the years 2013-17 for on-ice 5v5 goal stats Duchene ranks #321 among all forwards.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...ards&minutes=400&disp=1&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

and for 5v5 on ice shot stats he ranks #452 among all forwards.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...ards&minutes=400&disp=1&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

For 5v5 Corsi he's #454 among all forwards.
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...ards&minutes=400&disp=1&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

Those are 4th line #s.

We can make stats look like whatever we want. I think he's a good #2, you think he's a #1 A.

The bottom line is no one has been willing to pay the Avs price up till now. What if they never change the price and no one is willing to pay it?