Dreger: Matt Duchene Mega-thread:Habs, NSH, NYI inquired - Part II

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Sergei Shirokov

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Avs44

I'd say no. It's not to do with the value, but with the fit. If the Avs trade Duchene, a rebuild / re-tool is coming. It is also been reiterated by insiders and even Sakic they want "young" defensman / prospect age defensman. Yet the centrepiece of this deal, Edler or Tanev, are 27 and 30 respectively. Granlund isn't worth all that much, I don't watch Virtanen but 9 points in 33 AHL games does not indicate "good" prospect to me (I'd say he's a project / bust with minimal value), and while that 1st could be quite nice, the key to any deal is the defensman centrepiece - and that defensman centrepiece is simply too old here to me.

I disagree with you on Granlund and Virtanen.

Granlund has become a pretty solid 3rd line player (12 goals - 20 pts - 50 games in a mostly 3rd line&PK role) and he's young on a cheap contract, I think he still has room to grow he's smart and can contribute in alot of ways. That was actually one of Bennings better trades I think even though I wasn't the biggest fan at the time.

Travis Green thinks Virtanen is playing alot better, in the NHL he had the skills to score he just wasn't playing the right way, Travis seems to think he's playing the right way. Considering the job he's done with Baertschi & Markstrom among others I'm willing to take his opinion over mere stat watching.

His natural ability didn't go away, he can still skate like the wind, hit like a truck and shoot a puck.

Perhaps one of Hutton/Tryamkin instead? We have an abundance of younger D (Hutton, Juolevi, Tryamkin, Stecher, exc). Only thing is I don't think we would move Juolevi since he was the #5 pick or Stecher because from what I gather I think Canuck brass sees him as one of the young guys to build around like Bo/Boeser/Demko/exc.

Hutton+Granlund+Virtanen+1st+something else as a cherry on top

I would throw Hutton into the deal in place of Edler/Tanev. Could try and swap Granlund/Virtanen but I'm not sure what would work for the Avs.
 

Super Cake

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Whoever trades for Duchene will surely be taking a risk.

The risk being that you only have him for two seasons and possibly two playoffs as well (could be 3, but i don't see him being traded before the deadline) and then he walks while the Avs have your assets for much longer.

The teams that should trade for him are the teams that are in a win now mode.

Montreal makes the most sense imo when it comes to a team that should be in a win now mode.

Would suck to lose sergachev. But if Duchene brings your team closer to a cup, then you just have to do it.
 
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Avs44

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I disagree with you on Granlund and Virtanen.

Granlund has become a pretty solid 3rd line player (12 goals - 20 pts - 50 games in a mostly 3rd line&PK role) and he's young on a cheap contract, I think he still has room to grow he's smart and can contribute in alot of ways. That was actually one of Bennings better trades I think even though I wasn't the biggest fan at the time.

Maybe - but a third liner is a toss in in a Duchene trade. Mikhail Grigorenko has 17 points in 46 games, I don't value him much at all either.

Travis Green thinks Virtanen is playing alot better, in the NHL he had the skills to score he just wasn't playing the right way, Travis seems to think he's playing the right way. Considering the job he's done with Baertschi & Markstrom among others I'm willing to take his opinion over mere stat watching.

His natural ability didn't go away, he can still skate like the wind, hit like a truck and shoot a puck.

That all means nothing, even if it sounds nice. Yakupov is fast and has an incredible shot too - how has that turned out? This is a results orientated business, and 9 points in 33 AHL games is nothing short of terrible for a supposedly "good" prospect. That size, speed, and shot have to translate into something. I see nothing right now to indicate he isn't another Zach Kassian. Of course he could be more, but asking others to value him far higher than that, as a "good prospect", is completely unrealistic. He's a reclamation project who probably wouldn't go in the top 60 of a 2014 redraft. Keep him in Vancouver if that's how you evaluate him, honestly. Hopefully Green can turn him into something good.


Perhaps one of Hutton/Tryamkin instead? We have an abundance of younger D (Hutton, Juolevi, Tryamkin, Stecher, exc). Only thing is I don't think we would move Juolevi since he was the #5 pick or Stecher because from what I gather I think Canuck brass sees him as one of the young guys to build around like Bo/Boeser/Demko/exc.

Hutton+Granlund+Virtanen+1st+something else as a cherry on top

I would throw Hutton into the deal in place of Edler/Tanev. Could try and swap Granlund/Virtanen but I'm not sure what would work for the Avs.

I don't think you get to put Juolevi in the untouchable list when discussing a 26 year old top line forward. I have basically not watched the Canucks at all this year, I'll be honest, but I did last year, and Hutton then reminded me of Tyson Barrie. A second pairing calibre offensive defensman. Does he have actual, genuine top pairing potential (and in the sense that he can fully handle himself in that role, e.g. EJ calibre potential)? If not, he's not what the Avs particularly need.


I look at your package, and I don't see it as much better, if at all, than what the Avs got for ROR - then a pending UFA. I take Zadorov and his potential then (and now) over Hutton, unless Hutton has drastically changed and become something completely different, Grigorenko then is similiar to Virtanen now in my view (formerly high pick, poorly used, struggling), Compher looked to be a feisty middle 6 type then and still does now so I'd consider him comparable to Grandlund, so really it's the 31st overall in a good draft vs a pick anywhere from 10-20 in a weakish sort of draft. Obvious value difference there, but the centerpiece is what matters (the defensman) - and considering the 8 million per year ROR wanted a year from UFA, the Avs should certainly get better back for a guy signed 2.5 years they aren't in a big rush to move.


I think Juolevi is a must, and if Benning tries to say no to that, I don't think he's getting Duchene. McKenzie said the Avs want a good roster player, an "A" prospect, and a 1st. He also said the roster player could be interchangeable essentially for other pieces, and I believe it was said somewhere the Avs want a prospect aged defensman as a centrepiece. Based on that, plus insiders and Sakic saying the Avs want defense, I think that A prospect has to be a defensman from the Avs perspective, and the rest of the deal goes from there. That "A" defense prospect would be Juolevi.
 

Sergei Shirokov

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I don't think Juolevi is moving, its possible. But I doubt it.

Granlund is more valuable than Grigorenko, he can help u in more areas besides scoring and he can contribute his fair share, Grigorneko is a offensive player that scores at Granlund's rate despite have more opportunities throughout his career. Kassian never had the natural talent & ability Virtanen does. Virtanen has has the talent level to play in the NHL he just needs to play the right way. Kassian was much more limited. (Kassian is actually becoming a decent playing in EDM btw)

The Avs should try and get the best assets possible, you talk about a top pairing defenseman caliber then turn down Edler/Tanev, but atleast with them you would have a valuable asset you could look at turning into something different.

If the Avs want a good return for Duchene they need to look at all options or else they may end up holding on too long and having to settle for less, he's got 2 more years on his deal after this one and he's already 26 so I don't think his value is going to get any higher than it is now.

The value for a player is what someone will pay for the player not what you want for the player. If your going for percieved fair market value then your comparable would be somewhere between Hall and ROR I assume. I don't think any GM in their right mind is going to give up a prospect the caliber of a Juolevi with the possibility that they could have traded a cost controlled (for a long time) top level talent & ended up with nothing in a couple years. With the salary cap world it generally doesn't work that way. If the Avs want that they should try to trade Duchene at the draft for a high pick like Gillis did with Schnieder to get Horvat.
 
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PG Canuck

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I disagree with you on Granlund and Virtanen.

Granlund has become a pretty solid 3rd line player (12 goals - 20 pts - 50 games in a mostly 3rd line&PK role) and he's young on a cheap contract, I think he still has room to grow he's smart and can contribute in alot of ways. That was actually one of Bennings better trades I think even though I wasn't the biggest fan at the time.

Travis Green thinks Virtanen is playing alot better, in the NHL he had the skills to score he just wasn't playing the right way, Travis seems to think he's playing the right way. Considering the job he's done with Baertschi & Markstrom among others I'm willing to take his opinion over mere stat watching.

His natural ability didn't go away, he can still skate like the wind, hit like a truck and shoot a puck.

Perhaps one of Hutton/Tryamkin instead? We have an abundance of younger D (Hutton, Juolevi, Tryamkin, Stecher, exc). Only thing is I don't think we would move Juolevi since he was the #5 pick or Stecher because from what I gather I think Canuck brass sees him as one of the young guys to build around like Bo/Boeser/Demko/exc.

Hutton+Granlund+Virtanen+1st+something else as a cherry on top

I would throw Hutton into the deal in place of Edler/Tanev. Could try and swap Granlund/Virtanen but I'm not sure what would work for the Avs.

Granlund is getting pretty favorable minutes. He has the 6th most PK icetime, so it's not like he is some defensive stalwart that is heavily relied upon to kill penalties. He's soft along the boards, and disappears for long stretches of games. He doesn't have much value to Colorado at all, or anyone around the league. Colorado could go take a flyer on Sven Andrighetto or Tomas Jurco and get the same results, and the same style of player - inconsistent, and soft winger.

Virtanen has regressed each and every season that has passed. He has absolutely no value in the ability to land Matt Duchene. Travis Green talking Virtanen up is great and all, but Virtanen still needs to produce numbers and he simply isn't. The Avalanche don't want a project, they want an actual prospect that hasn't regressed each year since he has been drafted. Right now, Virtanen isn't even tracking well enough to be a third line player in the NHL.

As a Canucks fan, that is likely the easiest trade offer to say yes to, if Duchene is coming back the other way. Although, I'd rather not trade our first, but in a package like that, is really does need to be included to even make it enticing.
 

Avs44

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I don't think Juolevi is moving, its possible. But I doubt it.

The Avs should try and get the best assets possible, you talk about a top pairing defenseman caliber then turn down Edler/Tanev, but atleast with them you would have a valuable asset you could look at turning into something different.

The same reasoning from Blues fans trying to sell an impending UFA Shattenkirk as a centrepiece for Duchene, and Ducks fans trying to sell Vatanen (you can turn around and trade him or Barrie!). Why on earth would any GM in the league trade one of their best pieces, when the centrepiece of said return is something they have to immediately turn around and trade to get something they actually want??? It's tough enough to make one trade in todays league, let alone two back to back.

If the Avs want a good return for Duchene they need to look at all options or else they may end up holding on too long and having to settle for less, he's got 2 more years on his deal after this one and he's already 26 so I don't think his value is going to get any higher than it is now.

Of course - but I highly doubt the Canucks cobbling together secondary pieces is the best offer. There's no big rush here, despite fans trying to construe one. The Avs are the ones offering the 26 year old top line forward for future pieces - it's other GM's desperately wanting Duchene. Of course, they all want a highly favorable price, that's their job, but there is nobody else in the league offering the calibre of player the Avs are, at that age, for futures. The Avs aren't trying to "unload" Duchene, which is somehow the logic of many fans on here, they're holding a bidding war for the guy and seeing who bites hardest.
 

Sergei Shirokov

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Granlund is getting pretty favorable minutes. He has the 6th most PK icetime, so it's not like he is some defensive stalwart that is heavily relied upon to kill penalties. He's soft along the boards, and disappears for long stretches of games. He doesn't have much value to Colorado at all, or anyone around the league. Colorado could go take a flyer on Sven Andrighetto or Tomas Jurco and get the same results, and the same style of player - inconsistent, and soft winger.

Virtanen has regressed each and every season that has passed. He has absolutely no value in the ability to land Matt Duchene. Travis Green talking Virtanen up is great and all, but Virtanen still needs to produce numbers and he simply isn't. The Avalanche don't want a project, they want an actual prospect that hasn't regressed each year since he has been drafted. Right now, Virtanen isn't even tracking well enough to be a third line player in the NHL.

As a Canucks fan, that is likely the easiest trade offer to say yes to, if Duchene is coming back the other way. Although, I'd rather not trade our first, but in a package like that, is really does need to be included to even make it enticing.

The bolded is asinine. Please try to explain how he was a worse hockey player in 2014-15 than he was last year when he was an NHL player that played well at times and contributed?? Do you honestly think the year prior he would have been able to play in the league? Not a chance.

You want Virtanen to produce numbers in the NHL not the AHL, if the short term loss is AHL points for a long term gain that sees a higher probability of a successful NHL career then I don't see the issue here other than complaining to complain.

Sven Andrighetto and Thomas Jurco were supposed to be offensive players that produced offense. Marcus Granlund is not that kind of player, these comparisons are like trying to fit a square peg into a round hole, Marcus Granlund is still developing, those guys would just be filling a hole in a lineup. He's been improving, those guys have declined.

I disagree that he's soft. When you call him soft I honestly think of all the times the Sedins have been called soft. Just because your not assertive doesn't make you soft. He's not afraid to battle.

I'd offer Hutton+1st+ for Duchene. I really like Hutton alot and I think he will be an absolutely fantastic player, even one at his peak that can play on a 1st pair. But Duchene is at a point where you can still get a good amount of value for him and we have Juolevi, Tryamkin, Brisebois exc coming up on the left side already. This team is trending upward and with the emergence of Bo you could have a 1-2 C combination that would have us set post Sedins. Its risky because of his contract but if you can get him committed its worth making a move.
 

PG Canuck

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The bolded is asinine. Please try to explain how he was a worse hockey player in 2014-15 than he was last year when he was an NHL player that played well at times and contributed?? Do you honestly think the year prior he would have been able to play in the league? Not a chance.

You want Virtanen to produce numbers in the NHL not the AHL, if the short term loss is AHL points for a long term gain that sees a higher probability of a successful NHL career then I don't see the issue here other than complaining to complain.

Sven Andrighetto and Thomas Jurco were supposed to be offensive players that produced offense. Marcus Granlund is not that kind of player, these comparisons are like trying to fit a square peg into a round hole, Marcus Granlund is still developing, those guys would just be filling a hole in a lineup. He's been improving, those guys have declined.

I disagree that he's soft. When you call him soft I honestly think of all the times the Sedins have been called soft. Just because your not assertive doesn't make you soft. He's not afraid to battle.

I'd offer Hutton+1st+ for Duchene. He's at the point where you can still get a good amount of value for him. This team is trending upward and with the emergence of Bo you could have a 1-2 combination that would have us set post Sedins. Its risky because of his contract but if you can get him committed its worth making a move.

Virtanen had a decent second half last year, but he didn't build off that and look where we are right now. He's not a piece the Avs want for Matt Duchene. Simple as that.

Granlund is the same age as Andrighetto and Jurco, so how can Granlund being the only one still "developing"? Granlund is a easily replaceable, and there are many players like him. He's not worth much for Matt Duchene, just like Virtanen.

I would say yes to that package if we are getting Duchene in an absolute heartbeat.
 

PG Canuck

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The same reasoning from Blues fans trying to sell an impending UFA Shattenkirk as a centrepiece for Duchene, and Ducks fans trying to sell Vatanen (you can turn around and trade him or Barrie!). Why on earth would any GM in the league trade one of their best pieces, when the centrepiece of said return is something they have to immediately turn around and trade to get something they actually want??? It's tough enough to make one trade in todays league, let alone two back to back.


Of course - but I highly doubt the Canucks cobbling together secondary pieces is the best offer. There's no big rush here, despite fans trying to construe one. The Avs are the ones offering the 26 year old top line forward for future pieces - it's other GM's desperately wanting Duchene. Of course, they all want a highly favorable price, that's their job, but there is nobody else in the league offering the calibre of player the Avs are, at that age, for futures. The Avs aren't trying to "unload" Duchene, which is somehow the logic of many fans on here, they're holding a bidding war for the guy and seeing who bites hardest.

Which is exactly what that offer is.
 

Sergei Shirokov

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The same reasoning from Blues fans trying to sell an impending UFA Shattenkirk as a centrepiece for Duchene, and Ducks fans trying to sell Vatanen (you can turn around and trade him or Barrie!). Why on earth would any GM in the league trade one of their best pieces, when the centrepiece of said return is something they have to immediately turn around and trade to get something they actually want??? It's tough enough to make one trade in todays league, let alone two back to back.

With Tanev I don't think you have to. He's a year older than Duchene, signed long term and he's going to continue to be a good player for a long time. What do you expect? To throw a bunch of rookies in a lineup and have them develop the right way and be able to win games? Has no one learned anything from Florida in the 2000's and Edmonton pre-McDavid?

Hutton as a center piece is a younger player than Duchene who is a top 4 guy in his second season and looks to have more room to grow. I don't see how that wouldn't work for a team like the Avs who's last core was essentially ruined by not having the defense to compete.

Of course - but I highly doubt the Canucks cobbling together secondary pieces is the best offer. There's no big rush here, despite fans trying to construe one. The Avs are the ones offering the 26 year old top line forward for future pieces - it's other GM's desperately wanting Duchene. Of course, they all want a highly favorable price, that's their job, but there is nobody else in the league offering the calibre of player the Avs are, at that age, for futures. The Avs aren't trying to "unload" Duchene, which is somehow the logic of many fans on here, they're holding a bidding war for the guy and seeing who bites hardest.

Like I said in editted post, Duchene's value isn't going to get any higher, he's 26 and he's a UFA 2 seasons from now, his market value is only going to trend one way and its not up.

If you want a prospect/player like Juolevi, you have to draft them unless you are going to trade a prospect/player of the caliber. That seems to be the reality of the cap world.

In Juolevi's case they may move him if they feel like Hutton/Tryamkin are good enough for the future that they can do that, but I doubt it highly, teams don't give up those players. If you want a player like that for Duchene you are going to have to do what Mike Gillis did with Corey Schnieder and trade for a draft pick that allows you to get that kind of player.

Teams will give up better packages but I doubt highly that anyone is going to crack and show their best prospect the door for a 26 year old that is going to be a UFA in a few seasons.
 

Sergei Shirokov

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Virtanen had a decent second half last year, but he didn't build off that and look where we are right now. He's not a piece the Avs want for Matt Duchene. Simple as that.

Granlund is the same age as Andrighetto and Jurco, so how can Granlund being the only one still "developing"? Granlund is a easily replaceable, and there are many players like him. He's not worth much for Matt Duchene, just like Virtanen.

I would say yes to that package if we are getting Duchene in an absolute heartbeat.

You didn't answer my question or backup what you initially said.

I also didn't realize you were working hand in hand with Joe Sakic on the Duchene negotiations.

I've made it clear why Granlund is still developing, its because the value in his game doesn't just come from just being a skilled player that needs to put up points like it was supposed to for some of the offense first players that were brought up as a comparable.

Its like saying Jannik Hansen wasn't still developing in 2008-2009.

Is Granlund replaceable? Sure if you want chalk a few million onto your salary cap. Granlund is young, cost controlled and trending upward. I'm more than happy to keep him in all honesty I think he will become a very useful player. But I'm just not sure what else makes sense in a situation like this for Colorado, they want young players that can grow right?

Which is exactly what that offer is.

How can you even evaluate the value of the players when your judgment of them is so inherently flawed?
 

AslanRH

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With Tanev I don't think you have to. He's a year older than Duchene, signed long term and he's going to continue to be a good player for a long time. What do you expect? To throw a bunch of rookies in a lineup and have them develop the right way and be able to win games? Has no one learned anything from Florida in the 2000's and Edmonton pre-McDavid?

Sadly, IMO, many (and possibly a majority) on the Avs board do want to trade away everything over 23 to get rid of those who won't be in their prime once the rebuild ends and to make room for the kids to play on the NHL squad.

While things are starting to change of late, the very mention of a 26/27 year old Dman coming back for Duchene was borderline heresy even just a month ago.
 

Sergei Shirokov

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Sadly, IMO, many (and possibly a majority) on the Avs board do want to trade away everything over 23 to get rid of those who won't be in their prime once the rebuild ends and to make room for the kids to play on the NHL squad.

While things are starting to change of late, the very mention of a 26/27 year old Dman coming back for Duchene was borderline heresy even just a month ago.
Well I would trade Tanev (27) or Hutton (24) for Duchene, both are good players like Duchene and you'd have them for longer than the team trading for Duchene would have Duchene.

If you take the Hall/Larsson trade into account, I think it makes some sense. (Tanev/Duchene, different styles but both top line guys) You could have a nice building block in Tanev to help stabilize the team while young players develop, you have to develop the young guys the right way right or else the draft picks will be useless.
 

PG Canuck

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Okay, Avs fans lets settle this.

Question 1: Would you trade Matt Duchene for Hutton+Granlund+Virtanen+1st+something else as a cherry on top

A simple yes or no will suffice.


Question 2: Do you think Duchene could return more than that?


A simple answer of easily, maybe, or hell no would suffice.
 

PG Canuck

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(Hell) No.

Damn, you stole one of my answers for my second question in my edit.

Question #2

Do you think Duchene could return more than that?

A simple answer of easily, maybe, or hell no would suffice.

(I'm pretty sure I know your answer, but some may need some clarification)
 

Sergei Shirokov

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The original offer was Tanev not Hutton.

Lmao. But please, allow your endless attack on rational thinking to continue.


What wrong with Tanev+Granlund+Virtanen+likely non-playoff 1st?

That's a player of the same caliber coming back who signed long term (no risk of losing him like Duchene), 2 young cost controlled players that can help the rebuild, and a 1st that has a good chance of being a decent pick.

What's wrong with that?
 

PG Canuck

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Hutton+Granlund+Virtanen+1st+something else as a cherry on top

I would throw Hutton into the deal in place of Edler/Tanev. Could try and swap Granlund/Virtanen but I'm not sure what would work for the Avs.

So, what was this offer then?
 

JoemAvs

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Damn, you stole one of my answers for my second question in my edit.

Question #2

Do you think Duchene could return more than that?

A simple answer of easily, maybe, or hell no would suffice.

(I'm pretty sure I know your answer, but some may need some clarification)

Yes and most importantly Quality >> Quantity.

Avs need one centerpiece + maybe a 1st and/or prospect to balance the risk if it is a D prospect with risk coming our way.

We don't need multiple pieces we have little use for...

In my opinion the Avs have to take the best young (that is where Edler/Tanev do not fit the bill at all for a team committing to a rebuild) D (prospect) they can get in return and work from there.

Couldn't care less if 4 B prospects or multiple 3rd liners are coming our way as well.

Don't need that.

Need. Young. High-End. D.
 

PG Canuck

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The original offer was Tanev not Hutton.

Lmao. But please, allow your endless attack on rational thinking to continue.


What wrong with Tanev+Granlund+Virtanen+likely non-playoff 1st?

That's a player of the same caliber coming back who signed long term (no risk of losing him like Duchene), 2 young cost controlled players that can help the rebuild, and a 1st that has a good chance of being a decent pick.

What's wrong with that?

I'm asking Avs fans to get to the bottom of this. Not looking too good so far.
 

PG Canuck

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Okay, lets try this then...

Tanev+Granlund+Virtanen+likely non-playoff 1st?

Yes or no, Avs fans?

I think Duchene can get more, but that's just me.
 

Sergei Shirokov

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Yes and most importantly Quality >> Quantity.

Avs need one centerpiece + maybe a 1st and/or prospect to balance the risk if it is a D prospect with risk coming our way.

We don't need multiple pieces we have little use for...

In my opinion the Avs have to take the best young (that is where Edler/Tanev do not fit the bill at all for a team committing to a rebuild) D (prospect) they can get in return and work from there.

Couldn't care less if 4 B prospects or multiple 3rd liners are coming our way as well.

Don't need that.

Need. Young. High-End. D.

Which is where Hutton comes in.

Young high end D doesn't mean the teams best prospect, if you think your getting a prospect that a team just drafted with a top 5 pick for a UFA in 2 seasons your absolutely insane.

Not only because that's my opinion, but if you look at what the market has dictated, you would likely come to a similar conclusion. Adam Larsson returned a better player than Duchene who had a much better contract situation. Why didn't New Jersey trade Adam Larsson years sooner for a player more comparable to Duchene?

Why did Nashville trade Seth Jones for Ryan Johansen instead of say Jason Spezza years earlier?

It never happens that way.
 

Sergei Shirokov

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I'm asking Avs fans to get to the bottom of this. Not looking too good so far.
So far your not even following along with what's really going on. So I don't see the basis. Lol

(Sorry for the personal attacks, its just frustrating)

I'm sure Avs fans aren't going to like it. Any fan wants an overpayment for their better players, just like most Canucks fan's weren't happy with the Schnieder trade. I'm sure most people are fine with it now though.
 
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