Mathletic's 2012 Draft Rankings - Updated Nov. 24

[Mathletic]

No hockey tonight so I thought I'd do a quick update of my 2012 draft rankings. I still need more info on Cody Corbett and Valeri Vasiliyev. That's why you won't find them in the list. I don't have enough info on USHS players either. I belive most seasons are beginning or about to begin. I left the older verison below.

Just to let you know I base my opinion on stats. I'm working towards an objective model, not quite there yet, but improving with time.

1 - Nail Yakupov, RW, Sarnia Sting, OHL
2 - Mikhail Grigorenko, C, Québec Remparts, LHJMQ
3 - Mathew Dumba, D, Red Deer Rebels, WHL
4 - Ryan Murray, D, Everett Silvertips, WHL
5 - Alex Galchenyuk, C, Sarnia Sting, OHL
6 - Zemgus Girgensons, F, Dubuque Fighting Saints, USHL
7 - Morgan Rielly, D, Moose Jaw Warriors, WHL
8 - Sebastian Collberg, RW, Frölunda HC, SuperElit, Sweden
9 - Filip Forsberg, RW, Leksands IF, SuperElit, Sweden
10 - Charles Hudon, LW, Chicoutimi Saguenéens, LHJMQ
11 - Nicolas Kerdiles, F, USA NTDP
12 - Coda Gordon, LW, Swift Current Broncos, WHL
13 - Damon Severson, D, Kelowna Rockets, WHL
14 - Cody Ceci, D, Ottawa 67's OHL
15 - Olli Määttä, D, London Knights, OHL
16 - Martin Frk, RW, Halifax Mooseheads, LHJMQ
17 - Phil Di Giuseppe, F, Michigan Wolverines, CCHA
18 - Jordan Schmaltz, D, Green Bay Gamblers, USHL
19 - Griffin Reinhart, D, Edmonton Oil Kings, WHL
20 - Brendan Gaunce, C, Belleville Bulls, OHL
21 - Stefan Matteau, F, USA NTDP
22 - Derrick Pouliot, D, Portland Winterhawks, WHL
23 - Jacob Trouba D, USA NTDP
24 - Nick Ebert, D, Windsor Spitfires, OHL
25 - Dylan Blujus, D, Brampton Battalion, OHL
26 - Jake McCabe, D, Wisconsin Badgers, WCHA
27 - Michael Matheson, D, Dubuque Fighting Saints, USHL
28 - Matt Finn, D, Guelph Storm, OHL
29 - Slater Koekkoek, D, Peterborough Petes, OHL
30 - Tomáš Hertl, C, HC Slavia Praha, Tipsport Extraliga, Czech Republic
31 - Teuvo Teräväinen, RW, Jokerit, Jr. A SM-liiga, Finland
32 - Nikolai Prokhorkin, RW, CSKA Moscow, KHL, Russia
33 - Scott Kosmachuk, RW, Guelph Storm, OHL
34 - Gemel Smith, C, Owen Sound Attack, OHL
35 - Marek Langhamer, G, HC Pardubice, Mládež, Czech Republic
35 - Colton Sissons, RW, Kelowna Rockets, WHL
36 - Tom Wilson, RW, Plymouth Whalers, OHL
37 - Pontus Åberg, W, Djurgårdens IF, Elitserien, Sweden
38 - Radek Faksa, C, Kitchener Rangers, OHL
39 - Brian Cooper, D, Fargo Force, USHL
40 - Oscar Dansk, G, Brynäs IF, SuperElit, Sweden
41 - Henrik Samuelsson, RW, MODO Hockey, Elitserien, Sweden
42 - Austin Cangelosi, F, Youngstown Phantoms, USHL
43 - Austin Farley, C, Fargo Force, USHL
44 - Jon Gillies, G, Indianna Ice, USHL
45 - Patrik Machac, C, Brampton Battalion, OHL
46 - Anton Slepyshev, LW, Metallurg Magnitogorsk. KHL, Russia
47 - Max Iafrate, Kitchener Rangers, OHL
48 - Jesse Graham, D, Niagara IceDogs, OHL
49 - Adam Pelech, Erie Otters, OHL
50 - Mike Winther. C, Prince Albert Raiders, WHL
51 - Michael Clarke, C, Windsor Spitfires, OHL
52 - Dylan Gareau, C, Cedar Rapids RoughRiders, USHL
53 - Ludvig Nilsson, C, Timrå IK, SuperElit, Sweden
54 - Malcolm Subban, G, Belleville, Bulls, OHL
55 - Andrei Vasilievski, G, Tolpar Ufa, MHL, Russia
56 - François Tremblay, G, Val d'Or Foreurs, LHJMQ
57 - Ludvig Byström, D, MODO Hockey, SuperElit, Sweden
58 - Jarrod Maidens, C, Owen Sound Attack, OHL
59 - Raphaël Bussières, LW, Baie-Comeau Drakkar, LHJMQ
60 - Matia Marcantuoni, Kitchener Rangers, OHL

Need More Data for

Cody Corbett
Valeri Vasiliyev
US High School players

some comments

I still think Yakupov is the best player available. That said, Grigorenko will give him a run for his money. It needs to be said though that I'm mostly comparing Grigorenko's 2011-2012 season with Yakupov's 2010-2011 season.

Again, I'm still liking Dumba more than Murray at this point. I think Dumba's game is very well suited for the NHL. The offense is there, defense and very good physical game. I wouldn't hesitate to select Dumba at n'3.

To me, Galchenyuk is elite talent and shouldn't drop because of the injury, unless, the doctor says otherwise. Galchenyuk simply won't rise in my rankings nor won't drop because of the injury.

I'm interested to see how Girgensons will test at the combine. To me he sounds like Landeskog. Very good player in all aspects of the game, captain of his team and so on.

Really sucks for Rielly he got hurt. He needed a very good season to rise in my rankings and he did so for the first quarter of the year. It remains to be seen if he'll stay up there. I thought he was one of the few notable d-men to rise his game this year unlike Ebert, Schmaltz and the rest.

I simply love Charles Hudon. I'm sure he'll get the Jordan Weal treatment at the draft but there would be so much value in trading down to get him and adding a d-man in the process with the depth at that position.

Kerdiles wasn't featured in my previous ranking because I still had some work to do on the USA NTDP team. I'm sure he'll go very high. There's so many good d-men that teams will probably jump on the few offensive forwards early in the 1st.

Gordon had a great start to the season. May drop though pending on the rest of his season.

I'm liking what I hear on Severson. Just a complete d-man who should make an NHL team happy for quite some time.

Still have Langhamer as my top goalie. He's been very consistent on a poor defense. Dansk had a poor start to the season, same for Vasilievsky, so, I like what I'm hearing on Langhamer. Looks like Pavelec from what I've seen.

Not a huge fan of Ã…berg, may rise though if he keeps it going in the Elitserien.

I liked Brian Cooper a lot coming to this season. As Dynamo said, not so much his fault as much as the rest of the team/organization if he's not getting it done as well as last year.

Cangelosi and Farley are 2 small forwards I'm keeping an eye on in the USHL. Cangelosi is doing well as 2-way forwrad.

Dylan Gareau is among my sleeper picks. He got off to a great start in the EJHL. He now moved to the USHL. It will be interesting to see how he does there.

François Tremblay had a great start in Val d'Or. Had a tougher stretch on the road but stil very good upside there.

Not a fan of Maidens, Bussières nor Marcantuoni from the start.


... older version


1 - Nail Yakupov, RW, Sarnia Sting, OHL
2 - Mikhail Grigorenko, RW, Québec Remparts, QMJHL
3 - Mathew Dumba, D, Red Deer Rebels, WHL
4 - Ryan Murray, D, Everett Silvertips
5 - Alex Galchenyuk, C, Sarnia Sting, OHL
6 - Olli Määttä, D, London Knights, OHL
7 - Zemgus Girgensons, F, Dubuque Fighting Saints, USHL
8 - Filip Forsberg, RW, Leksands IF, J20 Superelit
9 - Morgan Rielly, D, Moose Jaw Warriors, WHL
10 - Cody Ceci, D, Ottawa 67's, OHL
11 - Michael Matheson, D, Dubuque Fighting Saints, USHL
12 - Tomáš Hertl, F, Slavia Praha HC, Extraliga
13 - Coda Gordon, LW, Swift Current Broncos, WHL
14 - Anton Slepyshev, F, Novokuznetsk Metallurg, KHL
15 - Teuvo Teräväinen, F, Jokerit Helsinki, SM-Liiga
16 - Sebastian Collberg, RW, Frölunda HC, Elitserien
17 - Colton Sissons, RW, Kelowna Rockets, WHL
18 - Marek Langhamer, G, Pardubice HC, Mládež
19 - Pontus Åberg, LW, Djurgårdens IF, Elitserien
20 - Griffin Reinhart, D, Edmonton Oil Kings, WHL
21 - Nick Ebert, D, Windsor Spitfires, OHL
22 - Dylan Blujus, D, Brampton Battalion, OHL
23 - Martin Frk, RW, Halifax Mooseheads, QMJHL
24 - Patrik Machac, C, Brampton Battalion, OHL
25 - Jordan Schmaltz, D, Sioux City Musketeers, USHL
26 - Jacob Trouba, D, USANTDP, USHL
27 - Brendan Gaunce, C, Belleville Bulls, OHL
28 - Emil Lundberg, RW, Södertälje SK, Allsvenskan
29 - Phil Di Giuseppe, F, Michigan Wolverines, CCHA
30 - Charles Hudon, LW, Chicoutimi Saguenéens, QMJHL

Click to read more...

 

[TheDude17]

No Reinhart?

 

[Mathletic]

No Reinhart?

my bad, should have him in the 15-20s range

... edit, added him at 20

 

[Alberta tough]

Sissons and Gordon on the list but no Pouliot don't get that at all from a Dub point of view.

 

[Mathradio]

Not sure Slepyshev will be an NHL first-rounder. He was the first overall pick in 2011 in the KHL and, if he wins the Cherepanov Trophy (the KHL's equivalent of the Calder Trophy) it's pretty much assured that he will be years away from the NHL.

 

[Sweech]

Wow, no Slater Koekkoek? One of the better D prospects, although very raw.

 

[Mathletic]

Sissons and Gordon on the list but no Pouliot don't get that at all from a Dub point of view.

I may have to dig a bit more in his case. I had him out because of the -7 rating but it looks like a lot of it is due to poor goaltending.

Not sure Slepyshev will be an NHL first-rounder. He was the first overall pick in 2011 in the KHL and, if he wins the Cherepanov Trophy (the KHL's equivalent of the Calder Trophy) it's pretty much assured that he will be years away from the NHL.

quite possibly, I haven't taken in the Russian factor.

Wow, no Slater Koekkoek? One of the better D prospects, although very raw.

not sold on his overall game. Offense is there but defensively I think there's question marks. I'd rather go with Blujus or Schmaltz for instance. Still plenty of hockey to be played though, things may change.

 

[Defensive Forward]

I'm a huge Maatta fan but he shouldn't be at #6, there are better players than him available after him on your list.

I'm obviously biased as a person who only really gets to see OHL games, but in my opinion Marcantuoni, Athanasiou, Maidens, and Koekkoek should all be in the first round in my opinion.

I also think that Gaunce should be higher.

I always love seeing your rankings. Thank you!

 

[Mathletic]

I'm a huge Maatta fan but he shouldn't be at #6, there are better players than him available after him on your list.

I'm obviously biased as a person who only really gets to see OHL games, but in my opinion Marcantuoni, Athanasiou, Maidens, and Koekkoek should all be in the first round in my opinion.

I also think that Gaunce should be higher.

I always love seeing your rankings. Thank you!

One of the big reasons I have Maatta that high is that he'll be one of the younger players of the draft. He's basically the same age Koekkoek was last year in his rookie season.

Gaunce could rise on my list, at the moment I'm not seeing big offensive potential in the NHL. None of the players you listed are bad players. I just think players like Hertl are flying under the radar and are better value at the moment, still plenty of hockey to be played. All those guys you listed have the potential to end up in the 1st round of my rankings.

 

[rt]

Not sure that's how I'd refer to Leksands...just a little harsh...

 

[iamitter]

Kerdiles not on here?

 

[Mathletic]

Kerdiles not on here?

I'll have to wait to gather some more info on most USNTDP players

 

[Mathletic]

I'm a huge Maatta fan but he shouldn't be at #6, there are better players than him available after him on your list.

I'm obviously biased as a person who only really gets to see OHL games, but in my opinion Marcantuoni, Athanasiou, Maidens, and Koekkoek should all be in the first round in my opinion.

I also think that Gaunce should be higher.

I always love seeing your rankings. Thank you!

btw, what do you think of Radek Faksa? kid is growing on me

 

[Miller4Gold]

Im surprised about the Brampton players. I like Machac hes a smart two way player, but idont see him as a franchise player.

Blujus had a good start but has tappered off.

I really love Koekkoek as a player, so im surprised not to see him.

Regardless, always interesting to see someone elses opinions.

 

[YARR123]

Not sure that's how I'd refer to Leksands...just a little harsh...

Yeah from what I've understood it's a damn good organization
Some of their prospects in recent years:
Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Viktor Rask
Filip Forsberg

 

[McDNicks17]

Really surprised with where you have Trouba.

Personally, I'd swap him and Maatta.

 

[joey16]

Wow.. 4 Czech players in the first round? I´d like that...

 

[thomast]

Teuvo Teräväinen has developed big time in one year. Not sure about him being 1st round pick because he has below average size. He's about 5'11 but his skating is excellent and his hockeysence is amazing. His work ethic is great aswell. Could be black horse of the draft. Not to forget that he is couple weeks off being 2013 draftee.



Pretty nice physical play at 1.10 which end up him setting up Ikonen for a goal at Ivan Hlinka.

 

[insider]

A few comments:

Blujus for me is a player who looks much better on paper than in person. Maidens and Koekkoek are just the opposite. I'd have both the 1st easily, while Blujus could even be in the 3rd-4th round by my books. I like defensemen like McIver and Iafrate from the O better. Maybe even Steele.

I like Machac a lot. He can play those PK mins, decent 3rd line two-way option. Faksa isn't far off Marcantuoni in my books either. Not sure I'd rate either in the 1st round, but they are solid options nonetheless.

 

[Fozz]

Mathematical models will never work on 17 year old kids... Too many things can't be taken into considerations, since they're still at a very early stage into their development. Also, stats will never tell the whole story on a player's true game and no argument will ever change my mind on the matter.

 

[Ringing Iron]

A few comments:

Blujus for me is a player who looks much better on paper than in person. Maidens and Koekkoek are just the opposite. I'd have both the 1st easily, while Blujus could even be in the 3rd-4th round by my books. I like defensemen like McIver and Iafrate from the O better. Maybe even Steele.

I like Machac a lot. He can play those PK mins, decent 3rd line two-way option. Faksa isn't far off Marcantuoni in my books either. Not sure I'd rate either in the 1st round, but they are solid options nonetheless.

I will echo this as a guy who watches a lot of OHL hockey.

Koekkoek will likely be a Top 20 (I have him around 10) pick. Maidens is a player who will be somewhere in the 1st round.

Jacob Trouba (at this point in time) is a top pick. I wouldn't have him any lower than 15th and currently have him at 7th. He's a dandy.

 

[Defensive Forward]

btw, what do you think of Radek Faksa? kid is growing on me

I'm thinking early second rounder at this point, but I haven't really watched HIM play. Whenever I watch Rangers games I watch Marcantuoni more.

 

[Mathletic]

Im surprised about the Brampton players. I like Machac hes a smart two way player, but idont see him as a franchise player.

I doubt he's a franchise player as well. However, he's looking like a can be a good piece to the puzzle of any team. A good 2-way player is always welcomed in the late 1st round IMO.

Mathematical models will never work on 17 year old kids... Too many things can't be taken into considerations, since they're still at a very early stage into their development. Also, stats will never tell the whole story on a player's true game and no argument will ever change my mind on the matter.

I don't pretend that stats tell the whole story. It just tells a different story than scouts can for example. No one will ever pretend to tell the whole story. Stats can also point out different pieces of information that scouts can't. Stats offer objective analysis.

You've already made up your mind, so I won't get into it anyways.

I will echo this as a guy who watches a lot of OHL hockey.

Koekkoek will likely be a Top 20 (I have him around 10) pick. Maidens is a player who will be somewhere in the 1st round.

Jacob Trouba (at this point in time) is a top pick. I wouldn't have him any lower than 15th and currently have him at 7th. He's a dandy.

Koekkoek and Maidens have the potential to go much high on my list. However, from what they've done so far, I don't think they deserve to go over most guys I have up there. Things may change however.

Stats aside, I think some people have been disapointed by Trouba and others are seeing him in the 15-20s range.

I'm thinking early second rounder at this point, but I haven't really watched HIM play. Whenever I watch Rangers games I watch Marcantuoni more.

lol! ok, thanks!

Teuvo Teräväinen has developed big time in one year. Not sure about him being 1st round pick because he has below average size. He's about 5'11 but his skating is excellent and his hockeysence is amazing. His work ethic is great aswell. Could be black horse of the draft. Not to forget that he is couple weeks off being 2013 draftee.

I agree, however, I'm sure there's teams kicking themselves for not picking talented players like Giroux and Parise in recent years. Not saying he's either of them but if his talent is legit, then I don't think size should matter this much if he can already get it done in the SM-Liga.

Wow.. 4 Czech players in the first round? I´d like that...

any of them in your opinion don't belong there? have you had the chance to see much of Langhamer this year as well?

 

[Ward Cornell]

btw, what do you think of Radek Faksa? kid is growing on me

Kitchener STH holder for 30+ years and I can't say much about the other players except the OHL ones
but I definately can see Faska being the 3rd OHL forward picked (behind the 2 headed monster from Sarnia).
Once more scouts see him play he'll be rising with a bullet.
IMHO....a top 12 isn't out of the question.

 

[Forgot About Drai]

Can anyone tell me why Griffin Reinhart has been falling? If I remember correctly he was ranked around 2-4 at one time