Discussion in 'Tampa Bay Lightning' started by LightningStrikes, Oct 17, 2018.
He's a gem. That's the exact play I always envisioned him making as an NHLer. Simple, but effective. I think we'll see a lot more of it throughout his career. Blaze up the wall + smooth centering pass = money. He's so fast he can get behind defenders to make that play.
Since it seems Johnson found a time machine in the off-season, and went back to 2015, I think those two can combine to make one of the more dangerous short-handed duos in the league. If teams turn the puck over on the PP, they're in some serious trouble with that kind of speed turning the play up ice.
Matt Joseph first NHL goal!
I was worried he'd step in JT Brown's footsteps. At least a breakaway per game with nothing to show for it.
Nah, I think his drought was a lot more like Point and Johnson in their early days, where they created a ton of chances, or were always in the right spot at the right time, but couldn't cash in. But I mean, as high as I am on Joseph, I'm not thinking he's a 30 goal-scorer or anything. So he's gonna go 10-15 games without a goal plenty of times in his career. IMO his numbers will be more similar to Alex Killorn's, but he brings a lot of other qualities, like the ability to beat out icings, and the ability to transition up-ice before the opponent realizes the puck has even been turned over, that'll make him valuable for a long time.
Having a hard time seeing him put up 40+ points like Killorn, as fun as it is to rag on Killorn I think he is both a better passer and shooter than Joseph.
Yes people hate this comparison but JT Brown is a good one (albiet on the lower end of the spectrum) a faster, younger player will come along if his finishing or offense doesn't develop. I don't think he'll have the same lows at Brown but I think if he can play consistently at a level around JT Browns best that's still good value, 20-30 points guy who has good possession numbers, create with his speed and be dangerous on the PK.
He has much better vision and is a better passer than Killorn. Shot is close, he has a good one but he looks to pass first so doesn't use it enough, Killorn isn't afraid to shot nor go to the dirty areas to get goals. If he's playing on the 3rd line with Cirelli and Killorn who aren't great finishers then no 40 points won't happen. If he gets moved up with a shooter he can hit that number or some PP time too. He was really good in Syracuse with the PP going through him as he could pick a pass. He should far exceed what Brown did. He's still only 21, Killorn didn't make the NHL till he was 24 so he's much further ahead than him at this age.
Here's how Joseph's first 14 games stack up statistically to some other past rookies. Obviously there are a lot of other variables that play into this so make of it what you will.
Drouin: 1g + 8a = 9pts / 17 shots ~ 5.9 s%
Killorn: 4g + 4a = 8pts / 32 shots ~ 8 s%
Johnson: 3g + 3a = 6pts / 11 shots ~ 27.3 s%
Kucherov: 3g + 2a = 5pts / 35 shots ~ 11.6 s%
Connolly: 2g + 3a = 5pts / 34 shots ~ 5.9 s%
Point: 1g +4a = 5pts / 32 shots ~ 3.1 s%
Palat: 2g + 2a = 4pts / 16 shots ~ 12.5 s%
Namstnikov: 2g + 1a = 3pts / 20 shots ~10 s%
Panik: 1g + 2a = 3pts / 17 shots ~ 5.9 s%
JT Brown: 1g +2a = 3pts / 36 shots ~ 2.8 s%
Joseph: 1g + 1a = 2pts / 29 shots ~ 3.4 s%
Wow he bad
What you can say about Joseph is even without the points he has earned his stay on the ice. (or at least so far) A lot of those guys listed eventually got healthy scratched, or were sent back down to the AHL. Even a guy like Conacher who started out very hot, eventually fell off a cliff. And after the trade to Ottawa, they scratched him 2 separate times in their first round series in the 2013 playoffs.
I have to have a chuckle about Stone Hands Brown's shooting percentage. Probably stayed the same through out his whole time with us.
It's gonna be interesting how Joseph develops. Right now, both early career Brown and Joseph have a lot in common: Both are super fast, both created tons of shots and breakaway chances... and both have not a lot to show for it point-wise. Looking at the Day's stats, Brown had 1 goal and 3 points in his first 14 games. Joseph has 1 goal and 2 points. When Brown made the team I remember a lot of euphoria around here because he stepped on the ice, was tenacious, used his speed, shot the puck whenever possible. And he got his one breakaway per game trademarked. So far alot of similarities.
But after almost 300 games with the Lightning it was clear Brown would never be more than an energy 4th liner with great wheels and stone hands. I really hope Joseph can reach his potential and be more than a JT Brown clone.
The thing with Joseph is he's effective when he's not scoring too. I have a lot of faith the scoring will come, and he'll wind up in the 0.5 range (not this year, but in the future), especially if he's playing with scorers. His speed allows him to get into a better position than guys like Killorn, which, over time, I think will allow him to score more Gourde-type goals, even if he's not beating goalies straight up. That will of course require the right attitude, but hopefully Joseph sees himself as a guy who scores dirty goals, and goes after them.
He was a good scorer in junior without elite talent to boost his numbers. He played a lot in his final junior year with Boko Imama.
One habit I'd like to see him break though is, when he enters the zone, and nothing opens up in front, he often skates the puck around the net. A guy like Point can do that and still turn it into something because he has the hands to do it. With Joseph though, it's starting to look a lot like Vlad Namestnikov. I'd rather see him just attack the net if he can't find a play in front.
Brown was also like 23 and more/less a finished product by the time he played his first game. Same was true for Killorn, maybe even more so, because pretty much the only difference between Killorn then and Killorn now is he's slower and stiffer now.
Joseph still has a lot of room to grow. I mean, who knows, maybe he won't, but he doesn't look like a finished product to me.
Yeah this, when you skate around the net a defender is ready to cut you off and you have to make a panic play, Point is skilled enough to make a good play but most guys will do a blind toss.
I'd like to see him pull the Drouin move since he's just as fast, pull up hard on the half wall and throw the entire defense off while allowing trailing players to get in place and let the play settle. It'd help him more than going full speed all the time which looks cool but is insanely hard to make accurate plays.
He was doing that a lot more in the pre-season and first few games. I think now that he has a little more confidence he's started hanging onto the puck, but hopefully he simplifies things. Everything's going at such high speed when he has the puck, he has the D on their heels when he enters the zone. Circling the net gives them time to adjust.
This kid is SO FAST
You should have added the age. Joseph is certainly younger than just about all on that list would be my guess.
Mmmm.... probably not.
Younger than: Brown, Panik(?), Palat, Johnson, and Killorn.
Older than: Drouin, Kucherov, Connolly, Point
Maybe around the same age as Namestnikov? I can't remember how long he spent in the AHL. I thought only one full season, but he may be younger than Vlad too.
The scoring might be starting to come now. He seemed to hit a wall somewhere around the 10 game mark, which is pretty common, but then around game 13 or 14 he started pushing through and looking more dangerous again.
I don't know that we'll really see him take off until he's paired with at least one genuine scorer who can keep up with him. We have plenty of them, but they're all playing pretty well on other lines at the moment.
Cirelli has a great IQ. Let them grow together.
I think Vlad got sporadic call-ups at around Joseph's age, so those might be his 21y/o numbers, or close enough to them. He wasn't a regular until he was somewhere around 23 though.
The thing about Vlad was that he never developed into much more than he was when he arrived, same as some of the older players. I don't think that'll be the case with Joseph. I could be wrong of course, but he looks like he has a lot of potential for growth. When guys get open, he tends to find them, which was a thing Vlad could never do. I don't really anticipate he'll outscore Vlad by a huge margin or anything, but I do think he'll be a lot more valuable overall. It kind of is like, "What if JT Brown had the hands to score 40 points?" I know 40 points is still a projection on my part, and some people might not buy it now that we've seen him struggle a bit, but I think that's about what we're going to get from Joseph. Maybe more in good years, if we can pair him with scorers. I think we'll see him and Johnson together at some point, for instance, and they should complement each other quite well.
I really like Joseph’s speed on the rush and willingness to carry the puck into the offensive zone. He still has his flaws like all rookies do but he looks like he can be a key young piece who can step up big time when the cap casualties occur.
Age, time spent developing in the AHL, linemates, ice time, role, etc. Plenty of different things that make it hard to compare one kid's success to anothers and in a small sample size too.
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