Player Discussion: Mathew Barzal

[Sidney the Kidney]

Comparables, in terms of highly skilled guys who had good rookie years and how they did the following year:

Gaudreau - 64 --> 78
Kane - 72 --> 70
Malkin - 85 --> 106
MacKinnon - 63 --> 49 (pace)
Matthews - 69 --> 83 (pace)
Tavares - 54 --> 67
Eichel - 56 --> 77 (pace)

MacKinnon's the only one on the list who saw a dramatic drop in production. The rest either remained about on par (Kane) or saw a big jump in their production (or pace for those who were injured).

This is why I don't know why there's such a strong belief Barzal will regress, and regress badly. It's one thing to suggest 75-80 points, but some predictions of 60 or less seem far fetched.

 

[SI90]

Comparables, in terms of highly skilled guys who had good rookie years and how they did the following year:

Gaudreau - 64 --> 78
Kane - 72 --> 70
Malkin - 85 --> 106
MacKinnon - 63 --> 49 (pace)
Matthews - 69 --> 83 (pace)
Tavares - 54 --> 67
Eichel - 56 --> 77 (pace)

MacKinnon's the only one on the list who saw a dramatic drop in production. The rest either remained about on par (Kane) or saw a big jump in their production (or pace for those who were injured).

This is why I don't know why there's such a strong belief Barzal will regress, and regress badly. It's one thing to suggest 75-80 points, but some predictions of 60 or less seem far fetched.

It’s all about the goals with Barzal. I believe he will have 50+ assists but will he have 10,20, or 30 goals?

I believe he has the ability to score goals but I’m not ready to just assume he will score 25-30 goals.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

It’s all about the goals with Barzal. I believe he will have 50+ assists but will he have 10,20, or 30 goals?

I believe he has the ability to score goals but I’m not ready to just assume he will score 25-30 goals.

I was one of his biggest detractors, in terms of not being confident he could score enough goals at the NHL level to enter the elite category. But he showed he could score 22 goals, and he did so without having to shoot a ridiculously unsustainable shooting percentage (it's not like he shot 25% or something).

I'd say he's a lock for 20. How much above that, who knows? But I'm confident enough to think 20-ish goals and 50-ish assists is a guarantee. What will determine if he's a ~75 point guy or a 85+ point guy will be how much higher than those benchmarks he'll reach.

 

[SI90]

I was one of his biggest detractors, in terms of not being confident he could score enough goals at the NHL level to enter the elite category. But he showed he could score 22 goals, and he did so without having to shoot a ridiculously unsustainable shooting percentage (it's not like he shot 25% or something).

I'd say he's a lock for 20. How much above that, who knows? But I'm confident enough to think 20-ish goals and 50-ish assists is a guarantee. What will determine if he's a ~75 point guy or a 85+ point guy will be how much higher than those benchmarks he'll reach.

I’ve said I see Barzal being a perennial 20-60-80 guy. Give or take some on each side.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I’ve said I see Barzal being a perennial 20-60-80 guy. Give or take some on each side.

Yeah, point projections are always going to be difficult because you can never account for puck luck. Take Crosby's past two seasons. Both years he ended up with 89 points, but watching him, he was so, so much better in 2016-17 than last year. But often last year he'd get a cheesy assist on a play he barely had a part on, while the previous year he'd create 5 chances per game that his linemates simply flubbed on.

That's why I wouldn't consider Barzal "only" scoring around 70-75 points a huge regression because those extra handful of points could be chocked up to bad puck luck. For me, regression is not only a big drop in points, but a big drop in actual effectiveness in terms of creating chances as well.

 

[PWJunior]

I was one of his biggest detractors, in terms of not being confident he could score enough goals at the NHL level to enter the elite category. But he showed he could score 22 goals, and he did so without having to shoot a ridiculously unsustainable shooting percentage (it's not like he shot 25% or something).

I'd say he's a lock for 20. How much above that, who knows? But I'm confident enough to think 20-ish goals and 50-ish assists is a guarantee. What will determine if he's a ~75 point guy or a 85+ point guy will be how much higher than those benchmarks he'll reach.

Barzal already has a 60+ assist season under his belt, that's elite playmaking numbers. With his type of game, I think he has some 70 assist seasons on the way. If he can score close to 30 goals in that type of season, that's legitimate 100 point potential.

That's obviously a best case scenario, but I think a 20 goal, 50 assist season is his baseline... that might be conservative in the assist total too.

His 85 point, PPG (real PPG over 82 points, not the BS PPG pace for his other contemporaries) is money in the bank and an indicator of what type of talent he possesses.

His game is perfectly suited for where the NHL is now and is going in the future. I think he has another 60+ assist season this year so he should at least match last year's point totals. I expect a bump to 90+.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Barzal already has a 60+ assist season under his belt, that's elite playmaking numbers. With his type of game, I think he has some 70 assist seasons on the way. If he can score close to 30 goals in that type of season, that's legitimate 100 point potential.

That's obviously a best case scenario, but I think a 20 goal, 50 assist season is his baseline... that might be conservative in the assist total too.

His 85 point, PPG (real PPG over 82 points, not the BS PPG pace for his other contemporaries) is money in the bank and an indicator of what type of talent he possesses.

His game is perfectly suited for where the NHL is now and is going in the future. I think he has another 60+ assist season this year so he should at least match last year's point totals. I expect a bump to 90+.

Yeah. I've used the comparison before, but I can see him having Giroux-like numbers. Not a stylistic comparison, obviously, as they don't play the same type of game. But just in terms of actual output, I could see Barzal being like Giroux's typical 25+ goals, 55+ assist totals, with career highs around 30 or so goals and around 70 or so assists.

 

[SI90]

Yeah, point projections are always going to be difficult because you can never account for puck luck. Take Crosby's past two seasons. Both years he ended up with 89 points, but watching him, he was so, so much better in 2016-17 than last year. But often last year he'd get a cheesy assist on a play he barely had a part on, while the previous year he'd create 5 chances per game that his linemates simply flubbed on.

That's why I wouldn't consider Barzal "only" scoring around 70-75 points a huge regression because those extra handful of points could be chocked up to bad puck luck. For me, regression is not only a big drop in points, but a big drop in actual effectiveness in terms of creating chances as well.

I always say points aren’t the be all end all. Yes
You can’t argue with production but you also have to factor other things in as well. Tavares last 3 years as an islander he had 70,66,and 84 points. Even though he didn’t have 80+ points 2 and 3 years ago he was such a better hockey player. He started to become an effective penalty killer and way more responsible in his own end. Still not Bergeron in his own end but not a liability either.

If Barzal gets 70pts this year but plays much better defensively ( he was good last year) and on faceoffs and other areas I will not consider that a regression.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I always say points aren’t the be all end all. Yes
You can’t argue with production but you also have to factor other things in as well. Tavares last 3 years as an islander he had 70,66,and 84 points. Even though he didn’t have 80+ points 2 and 3 years ago he was such a better hockey player. He started to become an effective penalty killer and way more responsible in his own end. Still not Bergeron in his own end but not a liability either.

If Barzal gets 70pts this year but plays much better defensively ( he was good last year) and on faceoffs and other areas I will not consider that a regression.

If the Isles are a decent team this season, I can see Barzal getting 90 pts this season. As strange as this sounds I think he will get more offensive opportunities without Judas in the line up. There were times last season I thought he could have been even used more. Those mins will have to fall somewhere, Barzal will flourish under Trotz. This is my hope and belief. I know tempered expectations are better, Isles fans have their heads on right on Barzal. He is now the sole shut down focus of other teams. But Barzal is such an amazing talent, one whose game is centered around skating that only McDavid can be compared skating wise. Why I say Barzal will be fine next year. When he is skating and creating. He is virtually impossible to stop.

 

[BarzyClub]

2017 WJC Gold medal game on NHL Network right now. Barzal v Bellows.

 

[boredmale]

Malkin - 85 --> 106

Works for me. lol

 

[mm11]

If the Isles are a decent team this season, I can see Barzal getting 90 pts this season. As strange as this sounds I think he will get more offensive opportunities without Judas in the line up. There were times last season I thought he could have been even used more. Those mins will have to fall somewhere, Barzal will flourish under Trotz. This is my hope and belief. I know tempered expectations are better, Isles fans have their heads on right on Barzal. He is now the sole shut down focus of other teams. But Barzal is such an amazing talent, one whose game is centered around skating that only McDavid can be compared skating wise. Why I say Barzal will be fine next year. When he is skating and creating. He is virtually impossible to stop.

as odd as it must seem I was clamoring last year to give Barzal a chance on the PK. Tons of open ice to dance around and with the possibility of AB being the other forward some shifts may feel like they have the puck for 2 minutes. Now blocking or getting in the way of shots? Not sure I would want to see that. Out of curiosity did Barzal play PK at Seattle?

 

[The Winter Soldier]

as odd as it must seem I was clamoring last year to give Barzal a chance on the PK. Tons of open ice to dance around and with the possibility of AB being the other forward some shifts may feel like they have the puck for 2 minutes. Now blocking or getting in the way of shots? Not sure I would want to see that. Out of curiosity did Barzal play PK at Seattle?

I love this idea. I think Barzal could be a weapon on the PK. And my memory tells me he did do some PK'ing with Seattle. I agree he would be a weapon on it. I am a bit old school, and say there is nothing wrong with your best player also getting mins on your PK. McDavid does it in Edmonton so I would not be against this idea.

 

[mm11]

I love this idea. I think Barzal could be a weapon on the PK. And my memory tells me he did do some PK'ing with Seattle. I agree he would be a weapon on it. I am a bit old school, and say there is nothing wrong with your best player also getting mins on your PK. McDavid does it in Edmonton so I would not be against this idea.

I see the other team sometimes in a frantic time eating chase to catch these two gazelles. Finally when they gain control they may have half a PP left to set up. Too many times I was watching #91 last year do nothing on the PK and the other team had literally 2 minutes to control and set up.....The more chaos the better in my humble opinion..

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I see the other team sometimes in a frantic time eating chase to catch these two gazelles. Finally when they gain control they may have half a PP left to set up. Too many times I was watching #91 last year do nothing on the PK and the other team had literally 2 minutes to control and set up.....The more chaos the better in my humble opinion..

When you have a weapon like Barzal, you use him IMHO. I recall Al Arbour using Bossy on the PK in the dynasty years. Barzal also has a very high rate of creating turnovers. I believe he could be a crazy good penalty killer.

 

[scott99]

2017 WJC Gold medal game on NHL Network right now. Barzal v Bellows.

Great game. Both played very well.

 

[sabremike]

When you have a weapon like Barzal, you use him IMHO. I recall Al Arbour using Bossy on the PK in the dynasty years. Barzal also has a very high rate of creating turnovers. I believe he could be a crazy good penalty killer.

This. He is a wizard at gaining posession.

 

[Seph]

When you have a weapon like Barzal, you use him IMHO. I recall Al Arbour using Bossy on the PK in the dynasty years. Barzal also has a very high rate of creating turnovers. I believe he could be a crazy good penalty killer.

I agree. Pavel Bure was also a regular PKer throughout his career. Despite not being a great defensive player, his skating made him a deadly PKer. Barzal's skating and anticipation could mean similar results.

 

[PWJunior]

I agree. Pavel Bure was also a regular PKer throughout his career. Despite not being a great defensive player, his skating made him a deadly PKer. Barzal's skating and anticipation could mean similar results.

I think Barzal has enough on his plate this season, I'd hold off using him on the PK and adding even more responsibility on his shoulders for now. I do agree with you and others that he could be a real weapon on it though.

Let him adjust to being the new franchise player first, he's still a kid who has a couple of more steps to take until he's a full blown superstar. This year is about doing the lion's share of the heavy lifting for the offense to shelter the entire unit. With Trotz, he will demand Barzal improve his defensive game that will reap more dividends when he is used on the PK in the future.

 

[Kevin27NYI]

I've had conversations about this with Ho-Sang though, he is also tenacious and has quick agility and edges; if he can learn to put his stick in the right lanes then he could contribute 45-60 seconds a game on the PK

 

[Seph]

I think Barzal has enough on his plate this season, I'd hold off using him on the PK and adding even more responsibility on his shoulders for now. I do agree with you and others that he could be a real weapon on it though.

Let him adjust to being the new franchise player first, he's still a kid who has a couple of more steps to take until he's a full blown superstar. This year is about doing the lion's share of the heavy lifting for the offense to shelter the entire unit. With Trotz, he will demand Barzal improve his defensive game that will reap more dividends when he is used on the PK in the future.

Oh, I didn't necessarily mean this year, was just thinking about it in general. I mean, if he shows he ready for it and is hungry for the extra ice time, sure, but I'm also fine with bringing him along more slowly in that area.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Oh, I didn't necessarily mean this year, was just thinking about it in general. I mean, if he shows he ready for it and is hungry for the extra ice time, sure, but I'm also fine with bringing him along more slowly in that area.

Trotz doesn't seem like the kind of coach who favors using his stars on the PK. Even a guy like Backstrom, who is a pretty good defensive forward, only averaged 55 seconds per game.

Seems to be more of a trend now, where unless the star player is also a perennial Selke forward, they probably won't get much PK time. I know I've been crying about the Pens not giving Crosby enough PK time, but Sullivan simply prefers to have guys like Rowney, Kuhnhackl and Sheahan block shots for 2 minutes a game than player his stars in that role.

 

[Seph]

Trotz doesn't seem like the kind of coach who favors using his stars on the PK. Even a guy like Backstrom, who is a pretty good defensive forward, only averaged 55 seconds per game.

Seems to be more of a trend now, where unless the star player is also a perennial Selke forward, they probably won't get much PK time. I know I've been crying about the Pens not giving Crosby enough PK time, but Sullivan simply prefers to have guys like Rowney, Kuhnhackl and Sheahan block shots for 2 minutes a game than player his stars in that role.

I don't know if it's necessarily a trend that teams are avoiding it. Seems like around half of the good teams give a top scoring forward significant time on the PK (which I am arbitrarily cutting off at either top 4 most SH minutes on team or over 90 minutes SH TOI).

The following list shows the guys on playoff teams last season who meet the above criteria, along with the total SH TOI and where their SH TOI ranks among forwards on their team:

TBL: Point 164:40, 1st on team
BOS: Marchand 122:53, 3rd on team; Bergeron 4th on team
PHI: Couturier 155:13, 1st on team
CBJ: Atkinson 92:27, 3rd on team
NAS: Viktor Arvidsson 104:01 5th on team
WPG: Wheeler 103:13; 4th on team
MIN: Granlund 147:33, 2nd on team; Staal 88:47, 4th on team
VGK: Karlsson 135:31, 2nd on team; Smith 111:39, 4th on team
SJS: Couture 109:06, 3rd on team
LAK: Kopitar 178:05, 1st on team

Eliminating the Selke nominees Kopitar, Couturier and Bergeron, that's 10 top scoring guys for the top 16 teams that are playing notable PK minutes, as well as top players on teams that just missed like Seguin (126:39, 3rd on team). So it's not crazy rare. I think it's just something varies by coach, as well as by player personnel/depth at both both scoring and PKing, as well as the in game situation.

Backstrom wasn't a big PKer before Trotz either, having only once in his career ever played even 90 minutes of SH in a season (2010-11 with 111:11 of SH TOI). And Trotz in Nashville gave some of his top scorers like Legwand and Sullivan notable PK roles. So I wouldn't say he's necessarily against it, though I agree that he certainly doesn't seem to make a point of doing it either.

Either way, it's not something I feel super strongly about either way, as there are benefits to both philosophies, as well as downsides. And I'm not advocating Barzal be expected to be the go to PK guy either; honestly, around a minute a game and 70-80 minutes a season would be plenty.

 

[SI90]

I've had conversations about this with Ho-Sang though, he is also tenacious and has quick agility and edges; if he can learn to put his stick in the right lanes then he could contribute 45-60 seconds a game on the PK

When you spoke to Ho-Sang did he say if he would be comfortable killing penalties?

 

[sabremike]

When you spoke to Ho-Sang did he say if he would be comfortable killing penalties?

Ha! But seriously, didn't he have one game vs TB where his job was to shut down their top line and he did just that?