Mat Barzal WILL take a huge step back next season

[Eternal Leaf]

85 pts is hard to match even with the same coach and team. He set a very high bar last season.

I think he'll get close even if a defensive minded coach is brought in. Those first 20-30 games might be rough but he's good enough to put up points in bunches later on.

 

[Seanaconda]

Don't get me wrong, I like this kid alot. great hands, speed and a deadly hockey IQ.
However that being said hes going have a huge drop off in points next year.
Teams will be looking at him a lot closer and have their top defense on him
If JT doesn't resign, he will be relied on to go up against top centers in the NHL, something he isn't ready for.
Add all this into a team that has no defense or goal tending his plus minus is going take a hit.

I can still see him reaching the 60 point mark but i cant expect anything close to the 80 plus he put up last year

If tavares leaves he will get better minutes if tavares stays teams will still plan against the top line so I don't see why he would score much less either way, I guess if they get a coach that teaches defense but he is so fast he will probably not be hurt by having to play d

 

[The Winter Soldier]

A huge step back would be a 50-55 pt season.

However if he scores 70-80 pts next season, this is still borderline elite. Not many Centers in the NHL that can claim to be back to back potential 80 pts Centers.

Barzal got 63 assists last year playing with Ladd, Beauvillier, and rejuvenating Eberle. With a little luck, perhaps with a sniper like Bellows in the fold and a better Beauvillier who he himself is young and improving. He may be in a better position to succeed than last season.

The one thing in his favour, he is a student of the game(studies tape on players), he works with Victor Krantz on his skating, how many already great skaters do this? And he wants to improve. These are things that one cannot teach a player to do. He just does it. So huge step back, don't count on it.

 

[FerrisRox]

Don't get me wrong, I like this kid alot. great hands, speed and a deadly hockey IQ.
However that being said hes going have a huge drop off in points next year.
Teams will be looking at him a lot closer and have their top defense on him
If JT doesn't resign, he will be relied on to go up against top centers in the NHL, something he isn't ready for.
Add all this into a team that has no defense or goal tending his plus minus is going take a hit.

I can still see him reaching the 60 point mark but i cant expect anything close to the 80 plus he put up last year

So the top defense will be on him instead of John Tavares? So you expect Tavares to have an absolutely monster year?

 

[mm11]

A huge step back would be a 50-55 pt season.

However if he scores 70-80 pts next season, this is still borderline elite. Not many Centers in the NHL that can claim to be back to back potential 80 pts Centers.

Barzal got 63 assists last year playing with Ladd, Beauvillier, and rejuvenating Eberle. With a little luck, perhaps with a sniper like Bellows in the fold and a better Beauvillier who he himself is young and improving. He may be in a better position to succeed than last season.

The one thing in his favour, he is a student of the game(studies tape on players), he works with Victor Krantz on his skating, how many already great skaters do this? And he wants to improve. These are things that one cannot teach a player to do. He just does it. So huge step back, don't count on it.

My dime store psychology says whomever is the Isles next coach should tweet, text or whatever vehicle he could use to show Barzal some of the thoughts of the hockey world who thinks he will regress a ton. Something tells me Barzal plays a tad better with a chip on his shoulder than hearing accolades... Get this kid hungry for more because it's been a long time since the Isles had a rookie this good...

 

[Frosty415]

He will have a better sophomore year than Matthews.

 

[ManofSteel55]

So the top defense will be on him instead of John Tavares? So you expect Tavares to have an absolutely monster year?

I think you missed an important part of that post. "If JT doesn't re-sign".

 

[TGWL]

Well, he probably won't get 12 points against the Rangers again(we hope). So, sure, he'll take a small step back. He's still going to be a great player for them.

 

[PWJunior]

A huge step back would be a 50-55 pt season.

However if he scores 70-80 pts next season, this is still borderline elite. Not many Centers in the NHL that can claim to be back to back potential 80 pts Centers.

Barzal got 63 assists last year playing with Ladd, Beauvillier, and rejuvenating Eberle. With a little luck, perhaps with a sniper like Bellows in the fold and a better Beauvillier who he himself is young and improving. He may be in a better position to succeed than last season.

The one thing in his favour, he is a student of the game(studies tape on players), he works with Victor Krantz on his skating, how many already great skaters do this? And he wants to improve. These are things that one cannot teach a player to do. He just does it. So huge step back, don't count on it.

Interesting read about Barzal being sheltered...

Mathew Barzal: The Center Behind John Tavares

 

[tony d]

Don't see it, think he's the real deal. If Tavares leaves Barzal will be the guy for the Islanders and will relish in that spot.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Interesting read about Barzal being sheltered...

Mathew Barzal: The Center Behind John Tavares

Good article. I will crib just one part. It completely destroys the notion of Barzal being a sheltered Center behind JT. Or the notion he will do worse without Tavares.

There are always going to be narratives for whatever reason pop up in Barzal threads. Do you recall the poster(whom I won't name, but his alias starts with M) that posted in the Barzal thread multiple times that he would be lucky to sustain a 12% shooting % all year.(Barzal ended the year at 12.7%) This was after the 30-35 game mark. Mentioned sample sizes and 61 points as a magical mark. Then said he would slow down by the end of the season because rookies do that. It was very satisfying seeing how wrong that poster was. When Barzal not only kept producing, but increased his production as the sample size increased.

There are always going to be posters for whatever reason, that try to downplay Barzal. But you and me, and other fans know what we know. The stats test matches the eye test. Barzal is looking like a top 3 pick from the 2015 draft.

The Final 30 Games

In the last 30 games, however, Tavares descended below 6.5 minutes while Barzal closed in on 5.5. By the end of the season Barzal was facing off against D1s for roughly eighty percent as many minutes per-game as Tavares. He was no longer a sheltered rookie. In fact, in the closing 30 games Barzal played 428 minutes of 5v5 hockey to Tavares’s 411, for the Islanders. Tavares still drew more time against stronger opposing defensemen, but the disparity was shrinking.

 

[IPS]

It's obvious his skillset thrives in a pure run-and-gun system which is exactly what the Isles ran. Like that system had zero regard whatsoever for defense.

The Isles are well aware that if they're going to get anywhere, that system has to go. Let's say they hire Trotz and he implements his signature defense-first system - I could easily see Barzal's production regressing to the 55-65 point range. He's going to force Barzal right back to square 1, and he's going to need to sacrifice a ton of offense for defense.

To the ardent Barzal defenders - calm down. Nobody's putting him down, it's just obvious that he thrived in a no defense run-and-gun system and the Isles will obviously be looking to get away from it. This is a system that had Anders Lee scoring 40 goals and Josh Bailey scoring 71 points in 76 games, you seriously don't think anything's wonky here?

 

[saintunspecified]

The Isles are well aware that if they're going to get anywhere, that system has to go. Let's say they hire Trotz and he implements his signature defense-first system - I could easily see Barzal's production regressing to the 55-65 point range. He's going to force Barzal right back to square 1, and he's going to need to sacrifice a ton of offense for defense.

I mean, this is just wrong. There's a reason why people compare Barzal to Datsyuk. It's because barzal has an ability read plays and steal pucks in order to generate offense. He's always paying attention to defense. He does need work staying disciplined and staying to his man for the most part (as opposed to roving). But I still think that, at the end of the day, becoming better defensively will only help Barzal offensively.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

It's obvious his skillset thrives in a pure run-and-gun system which is exactly what the Isles ran. Like that system had zero regard whatsoever for defense.

The Isles are well aware that if they're going to get anywhere, that system has to go. Let's say they hire Trotz and he implements his signature defense-first system - I could easily see Barzal's production regressing to the 55-65 point range. He's going to force Barzal right back to square 1, and he's going to need to sacrifice a ton of offense for defense.

To the ardent Barzal defenders - calm down. Nobody's putting him down, it's just obvious that he thrived in a no defense run-and-gun system and the Isles will obviously be looking to get away from it. This is a system that had Anders Lee scoring 40 goals and Josh Bailey scoring 71 points in 76 games, you seriously don't think anything's wonky here?

John Tavares had 84 points(1 less than Barzal) under the same pure run and gun system you cited last year. I just call it bad goaltending with a mediocre and often hurt Defence core last season. By the way 30 of his points were were on the PP. Nothing wrong with this, but they are not as good a predictor for production as even strength scoring is, as Barzal is one of the best in the NHL at this. JT is the most wanted free agent this summer. Nothing is wonky here if you think Barzal's numbers are out of whack. Not unless you think Tavares is not a good player.

 

[IPS]

John Tavares had 84 points(1 less than Barzal) under the same pure run and gun system you cited last year. I just call it bad goaltending with a mediocre and often hurt Defence core last season. By the way 30 of his points were were on the PP. Nothing wrong with this, but they are not as good a predictor for production as even strength scoring is, as Barzal is one of the best in the NHL at this. JT is the most wanted free agent this summer. Nothing is wonky here if you think Barzal's numbers are out of whack. Not unless you think Tavares is not a good player.

Oh it's wonky alright. You don't get mediocre players like Lee and Bailey putting up those kinds of numbers without there being something wrong with the system. Barzal outscoring Tavares is no doubt an impressive feat, but when you have a guy who's as good of a skater as Barzal in that silly run-and-gun no defense system - they're gonna put up insane numbers.

Remember that system Ron Wilson used to run in Toronto? A garbage player like Mikhail Grabovski by the grace of god was putting up decent offensive numbers, and that's cause if there was one thing he was decent at it was skating.

I'm not out to crap on Barzal here - he's obviously one of the best young players in the league. Just saying there's a little more that meets the eye when you look at the stat sheet.

 

[Mr Misunderstood]

Oh it's wonky alright. You don't get mediocre players like Lee and Bailey putting up those kinds of numbers without there being something wrong with the system.

Anders Lee is much better than mediocre.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

This isnt the nba lol. Run and gun or not, still takes a ton of talent to score points. That being said, i can see barzal’s numbers dropping.

 

[Tryblot]

Sorry, no.

Only leafs players take steps back.

All other players experience exponential growth every season and also take massive discounts to stay with the team.

Nice job trying to turn this into a Leafs thread.

 

[saintunspecified]

Remember that system Ron Wilson used to run in Toronto? A garbage player like Mikhail Grabovski by the grace of god was putting up decent offensive numbers, and that's cause if there was one thing he was decent at it was skating.

Grabovski was a very good player when he wasn't suffering from the symptoms of concussions, which unfortunately was often.

 

[wingnutks]

It's obvious his skillset thrives in a pure run-and-gun system which is exactly what the Isles ran. Like that system had zero regard whatsoever for defense.

The Isles are well aware that if they're going to get anywhere, that system has to go. Let's say they hire Trotz and he implements his signature defense-first system - I could easily see Barzal's production regressing to the 55-65 point range. He's going to force Barzal right back to square 1, and he's going to need to sacrifice a ton of offense for defense.

To the ardent Barzal defenders - calm down. Nobody's putting him down, it's just obvious that he thrived in a no defense run-and-gun system and the Isles will obviously be looking to get away from it. This is a system that had Anders Lee scoring 40 goals and Josh Bailey scoring 71 points in 76 games, you seriously don't think anything's wonky here?

The Islanders didnt play run and gun system... they were just a very bad defensive team, there is a HUGE difference. A run and gun system would be one where both teams had alot of shots on goal, and it was back and forth all game long. IF you watched any Isles games last year you would realize that is not at all what happened. Instead the Isles were pinned in their own zone for a majority of the game while giving up 45-50 shots a night while being easily out shot.

 

[PWJunior]

The Islanders didnt play run and gun system... they were just a very bad defensive team, there is a HUGE difference. A run and gun system would be one where both teams had alot of shots on goal, and it was back and forth all game long. IF you watched any Isles games last year you would realize that is not at all what happened. Instead the Isles were pinned in their own zone for a majority of the game while giving up 45-50 shots a night while being easily out shot.

If that's the hill they want to die on, let them. Barzal is legit, he is going to win the Calder tonight and then go from there. He's dynamic and brings people's butts out of their seats. Olivia Munn gave him props as will I.

 

[IPS]

Grabovski was a very good player when he wasn't suffering from the symptoms of concussions, which unfortunately was often.

Lol no. I watched Grabovski for his entire tenure in Toronto. He was tunnel-visioned, selfish, and low IQ who could skate pretty well. Ask any Leaf fan and they'll share this opinion. He was fearless, I'll give him that - but that's what lead to his concussion problems.

 

[CodeE]

Well OP, you might just have been the straw to break the camel's back. The guys at Lighthouse Hockey just published a comprehensive article that proves, with advanced statistics and analysis, that this "Barzal was sheltered" argument couldn't be further from the truth.

Mathew Barzal: The Center Behind John Tavares

Not only did Barzal face more top pairing defensemen as the season went on, his level of play actually improved as teams threw their best defenseman to neutralize him. It's all there in the article, graphs, stats, numbers - everything.

 

[IPS]

Well OP, you might just have been the straw to break the camel's back. The guys at Lighthouse Hockey just published a comprehensive article that proves, with advanced statistics and analysis, that this "Barzal was sheltered" argument couldn't be further from the truth.

Mathew Barzal: The Center Behind John Tavares

Not only did Barzal face more top pairing defensemen as the season went on, his level of play actually improved as teams threw their best defenseman to neutralize him. It's all there in the article, graphs, stats, numbers - everything.

This is very true. The Leafs experienced something very similar with Marner last season as well. Being "sheltered" was a very common criticism against him and he wouldn't do good at all against top QoC. He was then switched to Kadri's line in the 2nd half of the season and his production exploded against far harder QoC. Doesn't shock me that Barzal thrived with more as a go-to guy.

 

[saintunspecified]

This isnt the nba lol. Run and gun or not, still takes a ton of talent to score points. That being said, i can see barzal’s numbers dropping.

Without the head start in extra penalties at the start of 17-18, I can see the whole league's numbers dropping.