Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion XX - The Dog Days of August V3

[Sypher04]

Is it really that hard to imagine that people living in the GTA would have some type of connection to kids growing up playing in the GTA?

As always everyone is welcome to believe what they like.

Some connection and literally knowing the details of his contract negotiations seem like a world apart to me. I'd wager you'd have to be really really close to the family to have any idea whatsoever on those. And not just the family, but probably Mitch and Paul themselves.
I mean, even I've met Mitch Marner's grandmother at a Walmart photo lab of all places, but it's not like I got inside knowledge from her.

And yeah, of course, people can believe what they want. I'm not saying they can't. Just saying, some things are more worth believing than others. And if information is being used to criticize (as with Dubas in this case) it should be publicly available and proven information, not hearsay.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Why would we lose anyone? This is fear mongering.

Because you're not going to afford the others if that is your base.

8 years is substantially longer than 5/6...

Yes, and?

Rather have 5-6 years as a top cup contender than 8 years trying to get there.

Really? Have you asked them that? Taken a poll of Bruins and Avs fans thoughts from years ago?

What are you talking about? You asked what the GM thought, not fans. I don't really care what fans thought, but I don't remember anybody hating those deals for what they were at the time.

Only one of those deals is even 8 years, lol.

No it doesn't suck to have great players but what sucks is that other GM's found avenues in negotiations where they correctly bet on potential as opposed to Dubas who didn't have the stones to do the same.

No, they had their players be not as good when they needed new contracts.

When other teams have great players on great contracts, they're better positioned than a team with great players on worse contracts.

Yeah, and in time, those contracts will cycle out and they will sign for bigger deals. Thus is the cycle of a rising cap.

Leaving Marner to play a full season without a contract, with John Tavares as his centre both on even-strength and the powerplay, and NOT expecting a major leap in production is beyond stupid and the opposite of foresight.

I'm sure they expected a jump in production.

They didn't expect Marner's already high ask that already factored in a big jump in production to increase by like 40%+ for absolutely no reason. Assuming the rumour is true of course, which there is no evidence of.

 

[Dekes For Days]

8.5 x 8
You have to assume Dubas regrets not taking that.

Even in the magical unsubstantiated rumours are fact world, that was not an option.

 

[Sypher04]

Heard too much to think it's not real

Am I to assume you mean not publicly then? Because, best I can tell, no one outside of sportsnet/cbc (who were all just citing the Kypreos report) ever corroborated the 9mx8 talk or the idea a deal could have been done during the summer. Almost everything else I read said Marner was dead set on going last and wanted to play out his ELC

 

[ACC1224]

Some connection and literally knowing the details of his contract negotiations seem like a world apart to me. I'd wager you'd have to be really really close to the family to have any idea whatsoever on those. And not just the family, but probably Mitch and Paul themselves.
I mean, even I've met Mitch Marner's grandmother at a Walmart photo lab of all places, but it's not like I got inside knowledge from her.

And yeah, of course, people can believe what they want. I'm not saying they can't. Just saying, some things are more worth believing than others. And if information is being used to criticize (as with Dubas in this case) it should be publicly available and proven information, not hearsay.

I don't know the finer details just the number that would have gotten it done.

 

[Mess]

I'm disputing the idea of taking the report as gospel. Do I know if it happened or not? I, of course, do not. What I take issue with is people throwing it around as a fact that Dubas turned down the opportunity to sign Marner at 9m x 8 (it was never 8.5m that was reported to my knowledge) as a means of proving that Dubas screwed up. For all we know Mitch's camp was pressed for a number, 9m was what they coughed up accompanied by a "but we would greatly prefer to play out the remainder of Mitch's ELC before getting into real negotiations".

The point is none of us were there and best bet is that not a single person here knows either, despite the claims of some to have inside knowledge. And one article from Kypreos doesn't really change that we don't know what was or wasn't possible last summer.

May I remind you of our conversation last summer.

To the people chatting up 9M for Marner as possibility.

Fat chance.

Not this summer but next summer after Matthews gets $11 mil and Marner puts up a ton on points playing alongside JT all year..

If Marner is sitting there with 85 points and leading the team in scoring than $9 mil ask would not be out of the question.

If Marner camp demands 80% -85% of Matthews what gets then he would be looking at $8.8 mil - $9.35 mil if he puts up his PPG stats as everyone suspects is very possible.

And for the record, this idea of Marner potentially getting 9M after next year is still pretty absurd. I'm not sure there's any level of season he could muster that'd make that happen (short of winning a pile of NHL awards and basically being the league MVP)

I challenge the people perpetuating that idea to find a single comparable that actually supports that.

I mean even at a point per game next season it simply doesn't add up.

Tavares salary impacts Matthews in that it will be interesing as to who the highest paid Leaf will be so that will set the top of the Leafs pay scale, and we all expect McDavid and Eichel will be used as direct references also to set Auston next long-term deal.

If Matthews gets $11 mil to tie with JT and put himself between McDavid and Eichel and when/if Marner puts up PPG numbers this year he will ask for a % of Auston's deal.

Matthews $11 mil and Marner at 85% of what he got (for similar production) and adjusting for C vs W comparison = $ 9.35 mil (Draisaistl got $8.5 mil per). Draisaitl got C.H.% : 11.33 (cap hit % of team cap) so if Marner gets that same C.H.% : 11.33 of a current $80 mil cap that puts him at $9.1 mil per AAV. ( if Cap goes to $82 mil next summer = $9.29 mil)

I’d peg Nylander at getting around 6.5 now, Marners likely around 7.5 (given he has the advantage of waiting another season to sign)I don’t think he will have a case with 8 mil until he’s above PPG.

Matthews as a centre and goal scorer will hit 11.

I agree that he'll be around a million more than Nylander if he has a great season, maybe even approaching 8m if he really puts up a ton, but he's simply not going to get anywhere close to 9M

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I would argue that Point, Aho and Rantanen are all in the same tier of RFA's. Unfortunately because the Marner camp has been so public with all of their comments, other players are waiting to see the outcome. But not because Marner is the best of the bunch. I can argue Point and Aho are more on their own being centers with Rantanen and Marner being in the same group as wingers. With Point being the best RFA available regardless of position.

What is interesting is TB only has a tad under 9 million left in cap space. With Point to resign. Their GM is on record stating that no more players will be traded and only Point to be signed after their Maroon signing. Which tells you that point will sign for under 9 million per season. How long is the question? and that will drive the Marner contract to get completed, and then the Rantanen contract.

I would not be surprised if Point signs for a contract around what Aho signed. Should be interesting.

Point knows his options. I think you will see 3 year term. AAV between 8.5M and 8.75M. and then they will put together an 11M+ long term package. and he finalizes negotiations before camp starts. and then Marner will be on the hot seat. i agree with your point Marner is not as good as Point. But Leafs will still pay a little more due to tax ramifications and Leafs and Marner want a longer term. I still see 10.5M in the cards for Marner for 6 years. We will see how long it takes but thats where I think it will end up.

 

[Sypher04]

May I remind you of our conversation last summer.

I'm not sure what point it is exactly you're trying to make with those old posts.
If it's that I didn't think Marner was worth 9m last summer, then I'm guilty and frankly I still maintain that today. He wasn't. Whether Marner was or wasn't worth 9m a year ago wasn't however the point I was making in this thread today, hence why I didn't comment on it.
In fact, if not for the craziness we've seen recently in the UFA market (Skinner, Panarin) and with the holdouts of the RFA market, I'd still say Marner shouldn't even get more than 9M per, but clearly things are in flux right now. Based on what we knew about RFA winger contracts at this time last year, everything I said was 100% fair imo.

 

[Sypher04]

Point knows his options. I think you will see 3 year term. AAV between 8.5M and 8.75M. and then they will put together an 11M+ long term package. and he finalizes negotiations before camp starts. and then Marner will be on the hot seat. i agree with your point Marner is not as good as Point. But Leafs will still pay a little more due to tax ramifications and Leafs and Marner want a longer term. I still see 10.5M in the cards for Marner for 6 years. We will see how long it takes but thats where I think it will end up.

I have said the same. I'm hoping for and expecting something around 10-10.5 for 6 years.
Short of that, it'd be a bridge deal.

 

[Bomber0104]

I'm not sure what point it is exactly you're trying to make with those old posts.
If it's that I didn't think Marner was worth 9m last summer, then I'm guilty and frankly I still maintain that today. He wasn't.
In fact, if not for the craziness we've seen recently in the UFA market (Skinner, Panarin) and with the holdouts of the RFA market, I'd still say Marner shouldn't even get more than 9M per, but clearly things are in flux right now. Based on what we knew about RFA winger contracts at this time last year, everything I said was 100% fair imo.

Well he is as it turns out.

But don't feel too bad because you weren't alone in being dead wrong.

Our GM was too

 

[ShaneFalco]

If Marner signs for 3 years, are they want to go through this shit-show again so soon?

 

[Dekes For Days]

We were told of a "mythical" offer sheet threat for Matthews and that's why we signed him to that god-awful deal, no?

Funny how only certain reports from the same reporters are taken at face value, and others are steadfastly rejected.

The threat of an offer sheet was because he's an insanely good player with a generational shot at the most valuable position in hockey just entering his prime, not because some guy online said things.

 

[Sypher04]

Well he is as it turns out.

But don't feel too bad because you weren't alone in being dead wrong.

Our GM was too

Actually, I wasn't.
Based on contract comparables around the league at the this time last year 9Mx8 was an overpayment for Marner.
Nice try though.

And again, there's no evidence Marner was ever legitimately open to signing his extension last summer, but keep pushing your narrative.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I have said the same. I'm hoping for and expecting something around 10-10.5 for 6 years.
Short of that, it'd be a bridge deal.

I don't think you will see a bridge deal. Marner is small. and he could get hurt. They are looking for a longer term deal to protect against that possibility. Clearly for 8 years they are not going to find a common ground here. Once Point deal goes down then i think Marner's deal will get done too. I hope and expect both to be done before camp starts.

 

[ULF_55]

That’s not true and fabrications from Bobby mac.

It was reported that last season Marner camp was ready to do a 9 AAV deal for 8 years. After negotiations it could well have been 8 to 8.5 for 8 years more than pastrnak and deal could have been done. Heck even 9 AAV would have been fine.

Sure fans would have whines about 9 AAV (or 8 to 8.5 AAV); but the deal would have been for 8 years and about right now it would have looked pretty solid.

Now to make executive decisions like that one needs good foresight and Dubas has shown he doesn’t have it

I'd be curious about what is and is not fabrication.

Maybe all of it, and since there was nothing signed last year, other than Nylander, can't we suggest it is all fabrication since there is no evidence to support any of the rumours?

 

[Bomber0104]

The threat of an offer sheet was because he's an insanely good player with a generational shot at the most valuable position in hockey just entering his prime, not because some guy online said things.

Nice to know not just our fans are spooked by imaginary scenarios they dreamed up for the future, but our GM is too.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Fabrication by Mackenzie but fact with Kypreos?

 

[Bomber0104]

Actually, I wasn't.
Based on contract comparables around the league at the this time last year 9Mx8 was an overpayment for Marner.
Nice try though.

And fast forward one year and now that contract would be a complete bargain based on the position Dubas has backed himself into.

He was wrong. You were wrong.

And now we have to stomach another piss-poor contract, probably well into the season again.

And again, there's no evidence Marner was ever legitimately open to signing his extension last summer, but keep pushing your narrative.

We only have reports that say he was...

And that he wouldn't sign in-season...

And his agent saying the Leafs tried to low-ball him with an offer...

That's all we have to go off of.

 

[Sypher04]

That’s not true and fabrications from Bobby mac.

It was reported that last season Marner camp was ready to do a 9 AAV deal for 8 years. After negotiations it could well have been 8 to 8.5 for 8 years more than pastrnak and deal could have been done. Heck even 9 AAV would have been fine.

Sure fans would have whines about 9 AAV (or 8 to 8.5 AAV); but the deal would have been for 8 years and about right now it would have looked pretty solid.

Now to make executive decisions like that one needs good foresight and Dubas has shown he doesn’t have it

Marner's ask being tied to Matthews has been reported by countless reporters on all different outlets of the media, so I don't know how you can call it specifically a Bobby Mac fabrication

Then you go on and spout about 9x8 deal that literally no one except for Kypreos reported, as if it's fact. Being parroted by Sportsnet/CBC, who either cited Kypreos as the source or literally had him on their program for the segment, is not corroboration.

Based purely on what's out there publicly, it's far more likely the first of these two things is true than the second. One is supported by multiple sources, the other is clearly not.

 

[PromisedLand]

Not massively overpaying a 69 point winger when you have other key negotiations to do is good foresight.

And then you come to the situation now where you are going to have to pay marner more than 9 and have already paid matthews 11 (when he was rumourd to be looking for 11x8years last summer)

both of their production exploded; anybody could have predicted that with JT in the line up both their production was going to rocket

Dubas did not have that foresight and now we are in a hole cap wise and down a first round pick because of marleau trade

that does not show good foresight from GM

 

[PromisedLand]

I'd be curious about what is and is not fabrication.

Maybe all of it, and since there was nothing signed last year, other than Nylander, can't we suggest it is all fabrication since there is no evidence to support any of the rumours?

The implication that when the contract is signed that was the agreed upon market value and would not have mattered if signed earlier is suspect

 

[PromisedLand]

Marner's ask being tied to Matthews has been reported by countless reporters on all different outlets of the media, so I don't know how you can call it specifically a Bobby Mac fabrication

Then you go on and spout about 9x8 deal that literally no one except for Kypreos reported, as if it's fact. Being parroted by Sportsnet/CBC, who either cited Kypreos as the source or literally had him on their program for the segment, is not corroboration.

Based purely on what's out there publicly, it's far more likely the first of these two things is true than the second. One is supported by multiple sources, the other is clearly not.

72 million over 8 years for marner was not just reported by kypreos only.

Furthermore, Matthews looking for a bit more than Eichel on the 8 year term was well established last summer; just because there was no pen to paper because Dubas delayed negotiations with matthews camp to keep pushing nylander till december doesn't mean it is all a lie.

 

[Sypher04]

And fast forward one year and now that contract would be a complete bargain based on the position Dubas has backed himself into.

He was wrong. You were wrong.

And now we have to stomach another piss-poor contract, probably well into the season again.

How that deal looks in hindsight is immaterial. That wasn't the argument.
I said, based on comparables, he wasn't worth 9M then.
You're saying now he is, and that's great, but it doesn't invalidate the position I took last year, which was 100% correct at that time.

IF Marner was willing to negotiate from 9M and sign then sure it's a miscalculation by Dubas, and if he wasn't willing then we've done the best we can with the hand we've been dealt. We'll never truly know which is the reality likely, so we move on.

We only have reports that say he was...

And that he wouldn't sign in-season...

And his agent saying the Leafs tried to low-ball him with an offer...

That's all we have to go off of.

We have even more reports saying he wasn't.

Then that he wouldn't sign in season.

And his agent saying the Leafs have tried to low-ball him literally is meaningless. Nothing to do with willingness to do a deal in the summer.

All we have to go off is mixed reports at best, so maybe people shouldn't make definitive claims. Hence my whole point.

 

[Sypher04]

72 million over 8 years for marner was not just reported by kypreos only.

Furthermore, Matthews looking for a bit more than Eichel on the 8 year term was well established last summer; just because there was no pen to paper because Dubas delayed negotiations with matthews camp to keep pushing nylander till december doesn't mean it is all a lie.

Actually, it was only Kypreos who reported they'd actually talked 9x8. I don't recall a single other person say such (again that wasn't citing Kypreos)

And nothing of the sort regarding Matthews was ever reported as happening. There was a ton of speculation, but that's it.

Lots of speculation. Not a lot of people going on record saying these numbers were discussed or how close said numbers were to getting a deal actually done.

 

[Bomber0104]

How that deal looks in hindsight is immaterial. That wasn't the argument.
I said, based on comparables, he wasn't worth 9M then.
You're saying now he is, and that's great, but it doesn't invalidate the position I took last year, which was 100% correct at that time.

IF Marner was willing to negotiate from 9M and sign then sure it's a miscalculation by Dubas, and if he wasn't willing then we've done the best we can with the hand we've been dealt. We'll never truly know which is the reality likely, so we move on.

You specifically stated he isn't worth 9M. He quite clearly is. In fact, probably a lot more than that. And we're just a Kyle Dubas pen stroke away from confirming that.

Dubas was wrong. You were wrong.

I don't get why you're putting up such a fuss.

It happens.

We have even more reports saying he wasn't.

Then that he wouldn't sign in season.

And his agent saying the Leafs have tried to low-ball him literally is meaningless. Nothing to do with willingness to do a deal in the summer.

All we have to go off is mixed reports at best, so maybe people shouldn't make definitive claims. Hence my whole point.

If Marner's agent is complaining about low-ball offers, that sounds a lot like negotiating to me.

They were receptive to a deal in the off-season.

Once again, you're wrong.