Marner Contract Discussion XX - The Dog Days of August V2

[Warden of the North]

*Snores*

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[HoweHullOrr]

https://www.tsn.ca/video/shilton-on-marner-term-is-playing-a-big-part-in-the-contract-negotiations~1752631

Shilton on Marner: 'Term is playing a big part in the contract negotiations'

TSN 1050's Maple Leafs reporter Kristen Shilton said from what she understands term is what is stalling the contract talks between Marner and the Leafs.

"term" in the sense that Marner wants $10 million for a 3 year term and the Leafs want Marner to get $10 million on a 7 year term. IMO term and money are not mutually exclusive.

What Shilton actually said though is that teams want a long term contracts for their young stud (ELC) core players. Period ...... full stop.

All the ppl twisting themselves into pretzels saying otherwise are in full-spin mode and going against a well known truism. Teams (including the TML) want their young (core) stars locked up on long term deals.

 

[Morbo]

"Absolutely, it would be fairer if Matthews got a 40-50 goal man as his linemate."

Sounds like an excuse to me!

Sounds like you're letting your feelings get in the way of facts like that.

 

[TML1967]

That would only be because the league didn't perform as well as they projected revenue-wise that year. At the end of the day, all players will get a percentage of league revenue, divided proportionately to what they make league wide. Whatever money they don't get back from escrow was never theirs to begin with.

If you take all salary paid to all players, they have contracts for well above 50% of the league revenue. Hence why they (yearly) get short changed on those contracts.
Marner at 10m AAV is really a 10m AAV if the league and players contracts =50% of total league revenue that counts towards the number. Or HRR

Since there has been a cap, no year has a player actually earned the full amount of their contract.

Its partially how the league does, but also partially that the cap is a range. Lower and upper parameters on whata allowed. Because it's a range, the variance will occur even if the league had it's best year ever. It doesnt help the players have used their 5% escalator clause (allowing to bump the cap by 5% no matter growth) multiple times.

 

[MyBudJT]

Sounds like you're letting your feelings get in the way of facts like that.

- Relax man, most of the post you're originally referring to was joking around... lol.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Man, all around the league these stupid GM's without foresight, who didn't force their young players to sign last offseason ...

I'm sure this was meant a little tongue-in-cheek, but it is sort of predictable that it was going to be less advantageous the longer we waited to get them done. This iteration of the franchise is going to live and die by how well the core 3 forward prospects do over their careers, so I would have been inclined to get them all done as soon as the window opened up. I believe the reported asks last summer were $11Mx8 for Matthews and $9Mx8 for Marner

Well, I do recall the talk about signing all three at once in here. Good thought I guess at least.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

If you take all salary paid to all players, they have contracts for well above 50% of the league revenue. Hence why they (yearly) get short changed on those contracts.
Marner at 10m AAV is really a 10m AAV if the league and players contracts =50% of total league revenue that counts towards the number. Or HRR

Since there has been a cap, no year has a player actually earned the full amount of their contract.

Its partially how the league does, but also partially that the cap is a range. Lower and upper parameters on whata allowed. Because it's a range, the variance will occur even if the league had it's best year ever. It doesnt help the players have used their 5% escalator clause (allowing to bump the cap by 5% no matter growth) multiple times.

I get all of that, but just because the contract value has never been realized in full, doesn't mean that the discrepancy is the full amount of escrow.

You said:

Escrow right now is somewhere around 13.55% according to the Hockey news.

So 10m is now 8.645.000

Which is untrue. They probably get an amount of escrow back that makes their $10m contract value less than $10m, but it's not like they're just losing all the escrow.

 

[zeke]

Does anyone else find it weird that its the same posters that make fun of stats who then in the same post say "points are the only way to judge a player's value"?

 

[Nooodles]

What Shilton actually said though is that teams want a long term contract. Period ...... full stop.

All the ppl twisting themselves into pretzels saying otherwise are in full-spin mode and going against a well known truism. Teams (including the TML) want their young stars locked up on long term deals.

It's a known fact the Matthews camp wanted an 8 year deal but Dubas countered with a 5 year offer to keep the AAV lower.

 

[zeke]

Fact: He missed 14 games
Fact: He got 73 points

Fact: he was born in San Ramon, California
Fact: Matthews was inspired to play hockey because he loved the Zamboni

 

[zeke]

You’re guessing wrong.... I am not anti stats or anything. His metric being used is inaccurate, though.

You believe its inaccurate because you analyzed and studied it?

or because you just want to believe its inaccurate?

 

[hotpaws]

Does anyone else find it weird that its the same posters that make fun of stats who then in the same post say "points are the only way to judge a player's value"?

who has ever said points are the only way to judge a player ?

 

[zeke]

who has ever said points are the only way to judge a player ?

what else does "matthews is a 73pt player, period" mean, exactly?

 

[Morbo]

- Relax man, most of the post you're originally referring to was joking around... lol.

I'm fine. but you can't possibly expect people to decipher which part is which around here though, right?

 

[MyBudJT]

You believe its inaccurate because you analyzed and studied it?

or because you just want to believe its inaccurate?

For the third time, I'm not disregarding anything because I don't like the result... please don't put such words in my mouth.

AGAIN, for the third time.... I am skeptical of its accuracy because it contradicts what most other metrics are telling us about offensive abilities.

Nobody here actually knows what metrics Berkshire is using. But to suggest Nylander created more offensive opportunities than Marner last year is ludicrous and contradicts most other offensive statistical metrics. If you're making such claims, you really ought to define the metrics that you're using so that it is clear what exactly you're actually talking about.

 

[zeke]

AGAIN, for the third time.... I am skeptical of its accuracy because it contradicts what most other metrics are telling us about offensive abilities.

which other metrics?

Nobody here actually knows what metrics Berkshire is using.

we know he's using similar data as everyone else who looks at these stats are using, and we have access to that same data from a number of sources. if you think he's some lone wolf here, you're wrong.

But to suggest Nylander created more offensive opportunities than Marner last year is ludicrous

it's not.

and contradicts most other offensive statistical metrics.

which?

 

[HoweHullOrr]

What Shilton actually said though is that teams want a long term contract. Period ...... full stop.

All the ppl twisting themselves into pretzels saying otherwise are in full-spin mode and going against a well known truism. Teams (including the TML) want their young stars locked up on long term deals.

It's a known fact the Matthews camp wanted an 8 year deal but Dubas countered with a 5 year offer to keep the AAV lower.

I'm guessing you are presenting these two ideas like they are mutually exclusive? They are not.

TML wanted Matthews to sign a long-term deal e.g., 8 years. That's ideally what they wanted. However, they didn't have enough cap, so a 5 year contract was signed to keep the AAV down.

 

[MyBudJT]

which other metrics?



we know he's using similar data as everyone else who looks at these stats are using, and we have access to that same data from a number of sources. if you think he's some lone wolf here, you're wrong.



it's not.



which?

Ahhhh... this is where you can follow your own advice!

You can do your own research.

If you wont answer my questions, why do you expect me to answer yours?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Do you know what we're even debating about...? nobody here actually knows what metric he is even referring to, lol.

I believe it was scoring chances generated. Can't listen again now but it's in the clip.

While I disagree with the level of importance he puts on it, it's not like it's something he just made up.

I am not dismissing it because its something I don't like. That is blatantly false, and I don't appreciate you putting words in my mouth...

I'm not putting words in your mouth. You stated that his metric was "inaccurate" without even apparently knowing which metric you were talking about, and your initial response was:

And whatever Metric he's using is wrong.
Seriously though. Marner was 3rd in the NHL in primary assists, and 6th in even strength points.
How someone can suggest that Nylander was more effective at generating offensive opportunities than Marner last season is beyond me.

I don't know how that's anything other than outright dismissing it before you know what it is because it didn't match how you felt. You identify the reasons as primary assists, even strength points (neither of which disprove the stat in question), and your flawed eye test opinion about Nylander.

I am dismissing it, because it goes against the story that the majority of other metrics are telling us.

That's far from the first metric to suggest that Marner is currently overrated in his ability to "drive" a line or push play individually.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Luck?
Maybe the opposition knows the player’s tendencies and were able to defend and render the player ineffective.
We saw it with Nylander and his shot 2 feet over the left side of the crossbar and with Marner with his pee-wee shot that made him easier to defend.

No, the opposition didn't collectively just "figure out" Nylander and suddenly make him and all of his linemates useless, and no, Nylander didn't just suddenly forget how to play hockey and shoot the puck after 15 years.

He did probably overthink things and grip his stick tighter because of the pressure he was putting on himself because of the optics of the situation, which likely didn't help, and I guess that's not necessarily luck, but I don't see why that would carry over to future years, especially when we already saw him tear apart the Worlds when he had less pressure on him.

 

[zeke]

Ahhhh... this is where you can follow your own advice!

If you wont answer my questions, why do you expect me to answer yours?

When I disagree with someone's numbers, a poster's or a media guy's, you can bet I do the research and explain why I disagree.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Haven't you heard? Nylander is better than Marner, so that excuse is poor! Matthews has had >2 seasons with Nylander!

Nobody said Nylander is better than Marner. They said Nylander was marginally better than Marner in one single stat, in one season that is not the ones he played with Matthews.

 

[MyBudJT]

When I disagree with someone's numbers, a poster's or a media guy's, you can bet I do the research and explain why I disagree.

Funny, I've never seen you actually do this. Normally, you just make some smart aleck response similar to:

They do it by...er...counting offensive opportunities generated.

 

[hotpaws]

what else does "matthews is a 73pt player, period" mean, exactly?

it means you can't ignore a players actual production like you do

 

[HoweHullOrr]

If you take all salary paid to all players, they have contracts for well above 50% of the league revenue. Hence why they (yearly) get short changed on those contracts.
Marner at 10m AAV is really a 10m AAV if the league and players contracts =50% of total league revenue that counts towards the number. Or HRR

Since there has been a cap, no year has a player actually earned the full amount of their contract.

Its partially how the league does, but also partially that the cap is a range. Lower and upper parameters on whata allowed. Because it's a range, the variance will occur even if the league had it's best year ever. It doesnt help the players have used their 5% escalator clause (allowing to bump the cap by 5% no matter growth) multiple times.

I've only seen stats that go back to the 2009-10 season, but you may be right.

In 2011-12, only .52% (half of one percent) of the net player's salary was lost. In 2014-15, escrow witheld was 15%, but 12.95% was returned.

How much of the escrow is returned is based on how close the estimates/projections the league made to determine the 50% of HRR were to the actual 50% of HRR once the revenues are finally calculated. Escrow ensures that all parties receive the correct share of HRR even when salaries do not perfectly match the players’ share.

They could mitigate a lot of this problem by getting rid of the revenue growth escalator clause. Also, they could use revenue projections to set the upper limit instead of the Adjusted Midpoint.