Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XV (continued)

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Sypher04

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Jan 20, 2011
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Marner is better defensively. He reads the plays better and despite what you say he provides down lower coverage a lot as he is most always the first forward back into our zone. He uses his superior skating ability to steer players into Coverage and it is so evident I simply can not understand how anyone can miss it. On the pk he is among the best in the league at being the steer man and pressure the puck carrier into bad passes or he strips them.

I would take your bet as I know every player I have talked to feels like Marner is our best player on all sides of the puck.

You are greatly overrating Marner's defensive game and penalty killing. Do I think he's bad? Not at all, I think he's pretty good actually, but he's not among the best in the league at any aspect of it. I don't think being honest about Marner's defensive game, being good but nothing special, is at all a slight to him but I'm sure some will take it that way.
 
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Clark4Ever

What we do in hockey echoes in eternity...
Oct 10, 2010
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I have to confess, last year when this was going on with Nylander, I couldn't have cared less and would have preferred if the Leafs bounced him for a Dman

Now that this is going on with Marner, I feel anxious about it and hope Dubas doesn't **** up the relationship

Is it Dubas at risk of damaging the relationship or is it Marner's camp due to their unreasonable contract demands?
 

usernamezrhardtodo

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Mar 26, 2014
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3 x 7.5, 2 x 7 and 6 x 9.16

Those are the 3 deals I'm giving to him.

Marner's camp will respond with the "Muh Injury risk" when looking at the 2 shorter deals. Even though you would be very hard pressed to find any major young star player having their career cut short this early into said career. Marc Savard was a lot older...as was Lindros..not too many to pick from as an example of catastrophe.
 

The Hanging Jowl

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Apr 2, 2017
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How is it cherry picking when you’re talking about a player developing? The coach put him on the fourth line early in the year with an eye in developing a complete player. In the second half of the season (not to mention his exceptional rookie season) he excelled, so that isn’t cherry picking that’s the natural progression you expect from a young pro. It’s kind of ridiculous in my view to not account for growth and take the latest sample set to extrapolate future potential. Marner also carried on in the playoffs, the sample was actually 50 games.

There were many of us here who predicted a massive year for Marner based on his progression the year prior, supported by the stats. Factor in a great center like JT and plus point per game campaign looked downright reasonable. If people didn’t see it coming, I question their ability to access talent, because everything we saw the last 50 games of his second year pointed to a kid putting it together, poised to succeed. Cherry picking or ripening fruit?

We're comparing two players. They have both developed during their ELCs. I consider it cherry picking to select the most favourable period of time when Marner went on a good run as proof that his numbers this season really had nothing to do with Tavares, which some have stated (not you). I also think the only fair way to compare the two players is to compare the complete breadth of their careers so far.

The other poster's point about those 30 games were when he was matched with Kadri makes some sense except I'm told Marner drives his own line and is clearly primarily a playmaker so since Van Riemsdyk is historically a better goal scorer than Kadri, shouldn't he have had the same kind of success then? Or is it possible Marner just went on a good run to finish out the season?
 

Notsince67

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Apr 27, 2018
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I don't disagree with your overall premise, but Marner barely played at all on the 4th line, so you really need to stop using that.
Hard to parse placement in lines because they shift so much. I looked at center pairings and here is what I got.
Playing Time
W/out Matthews, Kadri, Bozak (4th line?)16.15%
With Either Matthews or Kadri (1st or second Line?)45%
With Bozak Alone[no other centermen] (3rd line?)38.7%
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

It is a pretty good guess that Marner played on either the 3rd or the 4th line for 54.8% of the season.
 

Notsince67

Papi and the Lamplighters
Apr 27, 2018
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Hahahahah it's all good my dude, last thing I need is a hug because of some debate on a board...might I suggest toning it down...you're generally pretty spot on with your comments (you're also one of the few who provides numbers to backup your words which I appreciate)
Yeah...sorry about that. Just triggered a bit by the usual suspects. I should learn to walk away
 

SeaOfBlue

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Aug 1, 2013
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Marner's camp will respond with the "Muh Injury risk" when looking at the 2 shorter deals. Even though you would be very hard pressed to find any major young star player having their career cut short this early into said career. Marc Savard was a lot older...as was Lindros..not too many to pick from as an example of catastrophe.

He'll probably just say I want to get paid my big money now because I've already proven myself (with one year that would warrant him getting over 7.5-8 mill on a long term deal in the first place).

As long as Dubas has been reasonable in negotiations, and will continue to be strong on what he believes Marner is worth relative to everyone else so he can do what is best for the team (which I am sure is what happens given the amount of time, effort and resources he spends on coming up with these numbers), then I'm more than fine with him waiting on Marner for at least another 1-1.5 months and seriously fielding any trade calls that may come in the meantime. Not necessarily anything public, or shopping him, but willing to listen to anything that comes his way (vs. likely hanging up at the first mention of his name as it could have been in the past).

In 1-1.5 months, if Marner is still not reaching a contract that makes sense for the Leafs, it is time to seriously consider moving on and completing a trade. Especially if other RFA's already started signing up.
 

Sypher04

Registered User
Jan 20, 2011
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Hard to parse placement in lines because they shift so much. I looked at center pairings and here is what I got.
Playing Time
W/out Matthews, Kadri, Bozak (4th line?)16.15%
With Either Matthews or Kadri (1st or second Line?)45%
With Bozak Alone[no other centermen] (3rd line?)38.7%
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
It is a pretty good guess that Marner played on either the 3rd or the 4th line for 54.8% of the season.

Our middle 6 was very much a 2a 2b situation. I really don't know that you can really assess that we even had a defined 3rd line.
My point would be that even of that 54.8% you've calculated, not much of that can reasonably be attributed to the 4th line. Even if you assume that 75% of that w/out Matthews, Kadri, Bozak time is actually 4th line it works out to what... 10 games? I don't think there's any way Marner's stint on that 4th was quite that long, so I'm not sure what to make of those numbers.
 

JT AM da real deal

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Oct 4, 2018
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Thank you, this is very enlightening.

Any chance you know what tax avoidance strategy Tavares is employing that will cost him hundreds of thousands in fees?
It is a tax deferral/lowering strategy. Basic idea is you buy a corporation with tax losses and transfer loses over many many years to a deferral corporation so as to defer/reduce taxes to a point in time when your income is reduced. The deferral spreads income earned over a lengthy period to reduce taxable income in early years. Now your money is locked up too so you can't get at it either.
Basically you take income and spread it over over a longer time frame and match tax loses to deferred income. You still pay your tax but pay less a highest tax brackets thus reducing overall tax.
It is all legal but you have to be in the know to know where these vehicles are parked. And how to best access full value from the transactions. And then you need the brand name stamp saying it is legal. Now that all said the CRA recognizes why these professionals are getting paid hundreds of thousands to do it so they question every transaction. And there are not a lot of people doing it so it is inherently risky. But the old saying applies when you have a lot of money you can pay a lot of money to reduce what you could have paid the government. and you get a net savings from a bottom line cash perspective after tax. Trump has been using every trick in the book in the US for years. He always says it is legal so i can do it so why wouldn't I. and he is right.
Lastly instead of taking money out of vehicle as income you dividend it out as much as you can through shareholders loans.
Other strategy the US and Canadian governments are starting to shut down which is the transfer of intangible assets from a corporation out of country to lower/no tax countries. And this strategy is largely used by mega MULTI national corporations to reduce income taxes in countries where they have more revenue to transfer that revenue to match assets in lower/no tax countries. And it is legal in tax code but ethically it is tax avoidance. So past few years Canadian and US governments have hired these top guys to rewrite the laws to make it much more difficult to use the loopholes.
Again this stuff is very complex stuff and you have to look at each corporation and each transaction in each corporation and make sure it can survive an audit.
 

justafan22

Registered User
Jun 22, 2014
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Marner's camp will respond with the "Muh Injury risk" when looking at the 2 shorter deals. Even though you would be very hard pressed to find any major young star player having their career cut short this early into said career. Marc Savard was a lot older...as was Lindros..not too many to pick from as an example of catastrophe.

Well, it's been reported Marner doesn't want long term
 

Cor

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Bob McKenzie saying the Leafs at this point want Mitch Marner to sign an offer sheet.



 

JT AM da real deal

Registered User
Oct 4, 2018
12,135
7,426
It is a tax deferral/lowering strategy. Basic idea is you buy a corporation with tax losses and transfer loses over many many years to a deferral corporation so as to defer/reduce taxes to a point in time when your income is reduced. The deferral spreads income earned over a lengthy period to reduce taxable income in early years. Now your money is locked up too so you can't get at it either.
Basically you take income and spread it over over a longer time frame and match tax loses to deferred income. You still pay your tax but pay less a highest tax brackets thus reducing overall tax.
It is all legal but you have to be in the know to know where these vehicles are parked. And how to best access full value from the transactions. And then you need the brand name stamp saying it is legal. Now that all said the CRA recognizes why these professionals are getting paid hundreds of thousands to do it so they question every transaction. And there are not a lot of people doing it so it is inherently risky. But the old saying applies when you have a lot of money you can pay a lot of money to reduce what you could have paid the government. and you get a net savings from a bottom line cash perspective after tax. Trump has been using every trick in the book in the US for years. He always says it is legal so i can do it so why wouldn't I. and he is right.
Lastly instead of taking money out of vehicle as income you dividend it out as much as you can through shareholders loans.
Other strategy the US and Canadian governments are starting to shut down which is the transfer of intangible assets from a corporation out of country to lower/no tax countries. And this strategy is largely used by mega MULTI national corporations to reduce income taxes in countries where they have more revenue to transfer that revenue to match assets in lower/no tax countries. And it is legal in tax code but ethically it is tax avoidance. So past few years Canadian and US governments have hired these top guys to rewrite the laws to make it much more difficult to use the loopholes.
Again this stuff is very complex stuff and you have to look at each corporation and each transaction in each corporation and make sure it can survive an audit.
and if corporation qualifies as small business you can also get a 1 time capital gain exemption of up to $800,000 tax free but again you have to be very careful here. it was setup originally to help small business owners who do not have an RRSP to get a retirement plan.
 

justafan22

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Jun 22, 2014
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Bob McKenzie saying the Leafs at this point want Mitch Marner to sign an offer sheet.





Yeah, I'm starting to get to the point where it's not going to be a shocker if Marner's done as a Leaf.

I still think it's 70/30 he stays, but if it's september 15th and he's not signed, then it's closer to 50/50
 

MapleLeafs9

Registered User
Sep 22, 2011
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Guys, Bob McKenzie is drunk and on vacation. Highly doubt he actually gives a shit right now.

That tweet also looks more like an opinion than a fact/insider rumour.
 

Cor

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I've loved the Leafs approach here.

We think you're worth this.
You think you're worth this.
So go get it from another team, and we'll make the decision to match or not.
If you can't, then that tells you what you need to know.

It's exactly how this should be.

And if I'm Kyle Dubas, I do exactly what the Marner camp did last summer, and come out and say "we aren't negotiating in season"

Make a final offer on the eve of Training Camp, and tell the Marner camp they have until December 1st to accept that offer, and it's not changing.
 

CantLoseWithMatthews

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Sep 28, 2015
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Guys, Bob McKenzie is drunk and on vacation. Highly doubt he actually gives a **** right now.

That tweet also looks more like an opinion than a fact/insider rumour.
Toronto wanting Marner to sign an offer sheet is his opinion/speculation. Toronto and Marner being massively apart in terms of his value is more concrete, and I'm sure he's right. There's no way Toronto (or any team) see Marner as that caliber of player
 
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justafan22

Registered User
Jun 22, 2014
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I've loved the Leafs approach here.

We think you're worth this.
You think you're worth this.
So go get it from another team, and we'll make the decision to match or not.
If you can't, then that tells you what you need to know.

It's exactly how this should be.

And if I'm Kyle Dubas, I do exactly what the Marner camp did last summer, and come out and say "we aren't negotiating in season"

Make a final offer on the eve of Training Camp, and tell the Marner camp they have until December 1st to accept that offer, and it's not changing.

Leafs don't have the cap to sign him on December 1st.

October 1st is the deadline.
 

DarkKnight

Professional Amateur
Jan 17, 2017
32,117
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We're comparing two players. They have both developed during their ELCs. I consider it cherry picking to select the most favourable period of time when Marner went on a good run as proof that his numbers this season really had nothing to do with Tavares, which some have stated (not you). I also think the only fair way to compare the two players is to compare the complete breadth of their careers so far.

The other poster's point about those 30 games were when he was matched with Kadri makes some sense except I'm told Marner drives his own line and is clearly primarily a playmaker so since Van Riemsdyk is historically a better goal scorer than Kadri, shouldn't he have had the same kind of success then? Or is it possible Marner just went on a good run to finish out the season?
He had 61 points his last 50 NHL games (including playoffs) heading into this season when you knew he would be paired with JT. If you want to focus on his stink playing with Matt Martin as indicative of future production, I’d say you’re cherry picking an outdated period to suit a narrative rather than actually acknowledging a large sample set, which just also happens to be the most recent and most relevant his age and growth. Again, nothing I saw last year surprised me, never bet against heart, especially with that insane skill set.
 

Throw More Waffles

Unprecedented Dramatic Overpayments
Oct 9, 2015
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Leafs don't have the cap to sign him on December 1st.

October 1st is the deadline.
Why is that though? The rumor that Nylander cost 10 million against the cap last year has long been debunked.

But I've heard the leafs won't be able to sign him late due to ltir reasons, or something. I don't really get it though. Can someone explain?
 

Notsince67

Papi and the Lamplighters
Apr 27, 2018
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You are greatly overrating Marner's defensive game and penalty killing. Do I think he's bad? Not at all, I think he's pretty good actually, but he's not among the best in the league at any aspect of it. I don't think being honest about Marner's defensive game, being good but nothing special, is at all a slight to him but I'm sure some will take it that way.
I'll leave defensive game alone because it has been done to death, but the PK is interesting. The Leafs penalty kill was pretty bad and nothing happens in a vacuum. Players play differently depending on who they play with. IMO,behaviour changes when there re obvious strengths or weaknesses on any given line. This shouldn't be a controversial statement.
I took a look at Short handed Goals above replacement for all forwards in the league and filtered it for a minimum of 100 minutes of PK time. Dont shoot me for using this metric because it is the only one I could think of that would measure something that might begin to quantify efficacy in this complex question.
I calculated Short Handed GAR/60 among this population and rank ordered to calculate a percentile.
Of 108 forwards, this is what I got:
player Team Percentile
CLAUDE.GIROUX PHI 99.07
MARCUS.FOLIGNO MIN 98.15
PAVEL.ZACHA N.J 97.22
BRAD.MARCHAND BOS 96.30
NIC.DOWD WSH 95.37
WILLIAM.KARLSSON VGK 94.44
ERIC.FEHR MIN 93.52
MARK.JANKOWSKI CGY 92.59
TROY.BROUWER FLA 91.67
EVAN.RODRIGUES BUF 90.74
RYAN.JOHANSEN NSH 89.81
JAY.BEAGLE VAN 88.89
NOEL.ACCIARI BOS 87.96
MITCH.MARNER TOR 87.04
CONNOR.BROWN TOR 86.11
JIMMY.VESEY NYR 85.19
ALEX.KILLORN T.B 84.26
CHRIS.TIERNEY OTT 83.33
REILLY.SMITH VGK 82.41
CHRIS.WAGNER BOS 81.48
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Marner was pretty good considering our PK defence couldn't be relied on to exit the D. Zaitsev was around the 39th percentile under the same criteria for D
 

Macman

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May 15, 2004
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Don't really want to get involved in what's going on here, just want to point out that @Notsince67 is absolutely right about looking at Marner's numbers away from Tavares this year. The sample size is so small that it's virtually meaningless. Add that a significant portion of it is discombobulated post-PK shift changes and it's utterly useless.

That should be obvious to everyone, but sadly it's not.
 
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JayfromNB1219

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Mar 27, 2019
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Yeah...sorry about that. Just triggered a bit by the usual suspects. I should learn to walk away

It happens to the best of us my dude... trolls are gonna troll...and Leaf naysayers (especially AMONG the fan base)are gonna make you want to rip your hair out...it's what they do...

Seriously though some of these "fans" seriously make me wonder if they actually like the leafs or made an extra account so they could stir up sht on our board lol (doesn't mean I always agree with you but the trolling here does hit some pretty high levels)
 

justafan22

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Jun 22, 2014
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I'd rather be forced to overpay in 2021 or 2022 when the cap goes up than overpay now.

Sign a bridge.
 
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