Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XV (continued)

[Pookie]

I would but it would require you to turn back one page and ACTUALLY READ IT

I love the old book reference

Books are cool

 

[Nithoniniel]

Don't really want to get involved in what's going on here, just want to point out that @Notsince67 is absolutely right about looking at Marner's numbers away from Tavares this year. The sample size is so small that it's virtually meaningless. Add that a significant portion of it is discombobulated post-PK shift changes and it's utterly useless.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

i'm literally posting the same stats over and over again. Its clear you never looked the first time and you are looking now. Simple goals and pts stats are TOO MUCH stats for some people.

LMAO

moving on.....who's next?

I can't see you're responding to yet I know who it is. Has he dropped some forensic statistical analysis on you yet and told you he worked at a large bank as an analyst of some type so his opinions are more important than yours?

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Yes we get it Marners sucks, trade the little ****.
He will never find a Tavares to boost his points.
Crap players you suck get rid of him .Probably couldn't trade him for a 7 th Rd pick .
We get it he sucks.

That's quite the leap. Can't someone love a player and still think they're less valuable than Matthews?

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Don't really want to get involved in what's going on here, just want to point out that @Notsince67 is absolutely right about looking at Marner's numbers away from Tavares this year. The sample size is so small that it's virtually meaningless. Add that a significant portion of it is discombobulated post-PK shift changes and it's utterly useless.

Agreed but you could say the same about cherry picking the last 30 games of 2 seasons ago (selectively and arbitrarily picking a date that works the best) to state as fact Marner was already destined to have a 90+ point season.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Agreed but you could say the same about cherry picking the last 30 games of 2 seasons ago (selectively and arbitrarily picking a date that works the best) to state as fact Marner was already destined to have a 90+ point season.

Absolutely. Best to look at the their body of work in their ELCs. When on the ice, Marner generates an insane amount of primary production (Malkin-level) v.s. when on the ice Matthews scores an insane amount of goals (Ovechkin-level).

 

[Notsince67]

Don't really want to get involved in what's going on here, just want to point out that @Notsince67 is absolutely right about looking at Marner's numbers away from Tavares this year. The sample size is so small that it's virtually meaningless. Add that a significant portion of it is discombobulated post-PK shift changes and it's utterly useless.

Thanks but I realize I am wasting my time. I was one of the most vocal supporters of Tavares joining the leafs and I still think he is a fantastic player. This binary discussion has morphed into this guy is great so this guy must be bad is how this discussion has turned and I don't want to feed it any longer. I dont mind discussing relative worth but the hyperbole is just out of control. The recipe being mixed in this discussion is analogous to an argument of people choosing between bricks or mortar in building a house. That isn't how hockey is played. I should know better than to waste my time responding to proverbial cold fusion theories and will be more judicious in my time.

 

[joepeps]

I would trade him now. He's being a burden on the team.

Even if they sign him for 3 years like he wants, you have to trade him. You can't go through this bullshit again in 3 years.

 

[TrueTT]

Never thought I’d live to see the Leafs endure their own Mike Comrie-esque situation from a hometown kid.

At this point if I’m dubas I’m looking at all trade options.

 

[ToneDog]

This thread has turned into another pro/anti Marner debate. Mitch is not Bozak riding Kessel's coat tail. Mitch led the team in scoring because he is a great player. My only issue with Mitch is that he has not signed for the money he has supposedly been offered (8x10). I get it that he and/or his dad might feel a little disrespected by the Leafs but get over it and get on with it.

 

[diceman934]

Agreed but you could say the same about cherry picking the last 30 games of 2 seasons ago (selectively and arbitrarily picking a date that works the best) to state as fact Marner was already destined to have a 90+ point season.

It is not an arbitrary date but a date when Marner started playing with Kadri and it was 40 games including the playoffs. So a large sample compared to a small sample size.

It is a fact that Marner produced at a 90 point pace for 40 games at the end of the season which was prior to JT being a leaf.

 

[DarkKnight]

Agreed but you could say the same about cherry picking the last 30 games of 2 seasons ago (selectively and arbitrarily picking a date that works the best) to state as fact Marner was already destined to have a 90+ point season.

How is it cherry picking when you’re talking about a player developing? The coach put him on the fourth line early in the year with an eye in developing a complete player. In the second half of the season (not to mention his exceptional rookie season) he excelled, so that isn’t cherry picking that’s the natural progression you expect from a young pro. It’s kind of ridiculous in my view to not account for growth and take the latest sample set to extrapolate future potential. Marner also carried on in the playoffs, the sample was actually 50 games.

There were many of us here who predicted a massive year for Marner based on his progression the year prior, supported by the stats. Factor in a great center like JT and plus point per game campaign looked downright reasonable. If people didn’t see it coming, I question their ability to access talent, because everything we saw the last 50 games of his second year pointed to a kid putting it together, poised to succeed. Cherry picking or ripening fruit?

 

[Sypher04]

How is it cherry picking when you’re talking about a player developing? The coach put him on the fourth line early in the year with an eye in developing a complete player. In the second half of the season (not to mention his exceptional rookie season) he excelled, so that isn’t cherry picking that’s the natural progression you expect from a young pro. It’s kind of ridiculous in my view to not account for growth and take the latest sample set to extrapolate future potential. Marner also carried on in the playoffs, the sample was actually 50 games.

There were many of us here who predicted a massive year for Marner based on his progression the year prior, supported by the stats. Factor in a great center like JT and plus point per game campaign looked downright reasonable. If people didn’t see it coming, I question their ability to access talent, because everything we saw the last 50 games of his second year pointed to a kid putting it together, poised to succeed. Cherry picking or ripening fruit?

I don't disagree with your overall premise, but Marner barely played at all on the 4th line, so you really need to stop using that.

 

[MyBudJT]

Agreed but you could say the same about cherry picking the last 30 games of 2 seasons ago (selectively and arbitrarily picking a date that works the best) to state as fact Marner was already destined to have a 90+ point season.

We're not cherry picking, though. Cherry picking would be selecting some games over others for no reason, or rationale. There are two reasons why it is reasonable to select the last 30 (well, 33...) games of the season...

1) That was the period that he played with Kadri. Marner really hasn't played with Kadri at all before or after that. You would be dishonest if you were to look at any other sample size when discussing Marner's production with Kadri.

2) Young players develop, and an 82 game sample is not reasonable for 20 year olds IMO. Its too large. One would expect a 20 year old to develop in the NHL. You would expect a 20 year old would be better in April than they were in October. For that reason, its very logical to select a suitable sample size over the 2nd half of the season.

Absolutely. Best to look at the their body of work in their ELCs. When on the ice, Marner generates an insane amount of primary production (Malkin-level) v.s. when on the ice Matthews scores an insane amount of goals (Ovechkin-level).

I'd like to hear your rationale about this. Why do you think it is most reasonable to look at a body of work in their ELCs? Wouldn't you think a young player should be much improved in their 3rd ELC year than their first? Are their not red flags if improvement is not seen? Shouldn't age be a large factor too?

I really don't see the logic in averaging the 3 ELC years, or weighing the 1st ELC year similarily to the 3rd ELC year.

 

[Sypher04]

Just to chime in, I don't think people are arguing you weight each year equally, but I do believe the whole body of work is releveant nonetheless.

 

[MyBudJT]

I don't disagree with your overall premise, but Marner barely played at all on the 4th line, so you really need to stop using that.

This is correct. I think it turned out to be 4 or 5 games on the 4th line...

 

[justafan22]

3 x 7.5, 2 x 7 and 6 x 9.16

Those are the 3 deals I'm giving to him.

 

[MyBudJT]

Just to chime in, I don't think people are arguing you weight each year equally, but I do believe the whole body of work is releveant nonetheless.

In context you're right. If show much improvement in your ELC, (ala Pastrnak, Marner, etc), that should be much more impressive than staying relatively consistent (ala Nylander).

 

[BlueForever75]

What can the Leafs realistically demand for Marner?

You would have to think they can get a young RHD and young RW back in trade.

How about this would you do it:

Pesce
Teravainen

for

Marner
Holl


Johnsson-Matthews-Nylander
Hyman-Tavares-Teravainen
Micheylev-Kerfoot-Kapanen
Moore-Spezza-Shore

Reilly-Pesce
Muzzin-Barrie
Dermott-Ceci

Andersen
Hutchison

 

[Sypher04]

In context you're right. If show much improvement in your ELC, (ala Pastrnak, Marner, etc), that should be much more impressive than staying relatively consistent (ala Nylander).

It's interesting imo because statistically sure, Nylander from year 2 to year 3 of his ELC didn't improve, but I'd say he was still getting better throughout. It's just hard a lot of the time for people to quantify how much without the metrics (myself included). We all like to have numbers simplify things for us, but sometimes, I think they go too far.

 

[MyBudJT]

It's interesting imo because statistically sure, Nylander from year 2 to year 3 of his ELC didn't improve, but I'd say he was still getting better throughout. It's just hard a lot of the time for people to quantify how much without the metrics (myself included). We all like to have numbers simplify things for us, but sometimes, I think they go too far.

I probably didn't communicate that effectively... I didn't mean to suggest that he hasn't improved at all, rather that he hasn't improved nearly as much as other guys. Obviously development isn't linear, but I do think its important to see significant strides early in your career. I should have expanded further. Offensively, there has been less strides... However, he has been developing nicely defensively for sure...(but I would say Pastrnak and Marner have improved in that facet too).

 

[therealkoho]

I have to confess, last year when this was going on with Nylander, I couldn't have cared less and would have preferred if the Leafs bounced him for a Dman

Now that this is going on with Marner, I feel anxious about it and hope Dubas doesn't f*** up the relationship

 

[JayfromNB1219]

That is your opinion but here is something for you. I dont come here for a therapy session so perhaps you can save it for someone else. I dont have a lot of tolerance for folks who find it titilating to spit at good players on the team. If my manner somehow distresses you, get a hug from your significant other or mother. I cant help you here. This is about hockey and it can be a blood sport.

Hahahahah it's all good my dude, last thing I need is a hug because of some debate on a board...might I suggest toning it down...you're generally pretty spot on with your comments (you're also one of the few who provides numbers to backup your words which I appreciate)

 

[JayfromNB1219]

I didn't mean agents wouldn't want him...
I meant he wouldn't need an agent, if he's going to tell his agent what to do and say and what to accept as an offer. That defeats the purpose of hiring an agent.

Yes and No...it's still "make me every penny you can...but if push comes to shove this is the number I will do"

 

[JayfromNB1219]

Marner is better defensively. He reads the plays better and despite what you say he provides down lower coverage a lot as he is most always the first forward back into our zone. He uses his superior skating ability to steer players into Coverage and it is so evident I simply can not understand how anyone can miss it. On the pk he is among the best in the league at being the steer man and pressure the puck carrier into bad passes or he strips them.

I would take your bet as I know every player I have talked to feels like Marner is our best player on all sides of the puck.

All good haha...I was talking about GM's though (and as we know GM's and players generally have slightly differing opinions lol)...and you know all about the love of a Franchise center lol