Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion - Training camp looms

[Suntouchable13]

I really don't like this method of defending Dubas by pointing out other horrible blunders made by other gm's.

Is that really supposed to make any of us feel better about it? "Hey... Dubas may be a complete and total idiot... but other gm's are sometimes idiots too." So what?

Well, my point is that other gms shouldn't be mad at Dubas and just mind their own business.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Those were UFA's, not RFA's...

My point is this: other gms need to mind their own business.

 

[Menzinger]

Again, Nylander's deal dragged into December 1st, so management hasn't been great at sorting these out or sorting them out quickly.

The Matthews deal was without precedent in the current NHL. I likely think we come out on top of it, because in the end its better to pay and keep elite young players, than sign decent to good but not elite players to long-term deals past 30.

Nylander asked for the same deal which was 8X8.5, and they came down to 7x6, despite the fact Nylander would only be selling 3 UFA years to Marner's 4. So, 8.5 to 9 actually is far from out of line considering every factor (UFA years bought, ability at younger ages, etc), when we paid Nylander out in December.

Name a winger who got 9x8 or equivalent without sniffing ppg at the time of signing? Marner had a career high of just 8 more points than Nylander at that time. It would be unheard of

I also think your exaggerating the uniqueness of Matthew's contract status. Relatively speaking only a smash number of rfas have ended up on 7-8 year deals. Matthew's also having one of the more unique skillsets in the NHL makes it even harder to try and use of recent 7-8 year rfa comparable deals

 

[93LEAFS]

There really isn't a shred of logic that can arrive you at the conclusion they caved on Nylander. They took him 20 minutes to the RFA deadline, where Nylander then phoned them to agree to a deal. Not the other way around. Nylander got on the higher end of his comparables because his ELC production warranted it. His ask was obviously even higher

His ask was 8.5mx8, which was Draisaitl, but he was only selling 3 ufa years to Draisaitl's 4. In the end he sold 1 UFA year in an insanely bonus driven contract compared to the other two. His deal is structured significantly better than all of the comparables you mentioned.

 

[LeafChief]

Say word.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Then it should have lessened the rest right?

The rest are waiting for Marner's inevitable overpayment as leverage, as I explained earlier, and as everyone in the world pretty much agrees with.

Aho signed 8.5x5.

Based on that, what do you think is fair at 5 years for Marner, Rantanen, and Point? (Not considering the inevitable Marner overpayment in the equation.)

 

[Stephen]

He also did not miss time with injury, plays with JT who is farrrrr and away better than Matthews's linemates, scores a lot fewer goals and doesn't play the premier position. It would be cool if people could at least look at factors other than "muh points" on occasion

Also would look at the fact that Matthews is the prototypical franchise center, number one overall pick, younger than Marner (albeit by a few months), more projectable frame and potential to round out his game, fairly obviously a more marketable asset (other GM's would surely throw an offer sheet at Matthews), seemingly has captain and leadership potential that Marner doesn't seem to, and has the ability to get white hot in a way that not many others in this league has the ability to, much better goal scorer.

 

[Suntouchable13]

This has to be resolved soon. This could be a huge distraction, a lot more so than Nylander last year.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Well, my point is that other gms shouldn't be mad at Dubas and just mind their own business.

What they're specifically mad about is the precedent he's setting with RFA'S.

ufa's have always made outrageous money. That's what happens when nobody owns their rights and they play 31 gm's against each other.

 

[93LEAFS]

Name a winger who got 9x8 or equivalent without sniffing ppg at the time of signing? Marner had a career high of just 8 more points than Nylander at that time. It would be unheard of

I also think your exaggerating the uniqueness of Matthew's contract status. Relatively speaking only a smash number of rfas have ended up on 7-8 year deals. Matthew's also having one of the more unique skillsets in the NHL makes it even harder to try and use of recent 7-8 year rfa comparable deals

I'm literally using McDavid and Eichel. The deal completely re-shaped the current market. You can go back a decade to Crosby and Malkin, but they are even less comparable. Guys like MacKinnon and Barkov hadn't broken out yet, so they weren't signing at a discount for 8 years. The guys who broke out and were elite guys signed for 8.

Marner was a full year younger, was selling a full year more than Willy (again, Willy only sold one UFA year), and quite simply was the better player.

 

[Menzinger]

Well what's done is done and the guy is getting absolutely carpet bombed on social media and the press.

Just need to see how long hes willing to stand the heat. Going to Europe probably a smart idea to try and ride it out but its pretty inescapable as long as hes got an internet connection

 

[Stephen]

8.5x8, isn't about the equivalent of 7x6 considering we only bought one UFA year, compared to Draisaitl selling 4 UFA years. Larkin, Pastrnak and Ehlers all sold off 2 UFA years. People really forget that angle to the negotiation.

The fact remains that $6.96 whatever million Nylander makes is chump change in this cap landscape. Guys who signed for $7 million plus in 2018 and beyond include James van Riemsdyk, Kevin Hayes, Anders Lee and Evander Kane, and I don't want any of their UFA years. Nylander's contract isn't a super bargain at Mackinnon and Schiefele levels, but it's a win. It's time whiners wake up and realize this.

The Marner ask is so big and crazy that these two contracts aren't even comparable anymore.

 

[Legion34]

The rest are waiting for Marner's inevitable overpayment as leverage, as I explained earlier, and as everyone in the world pretty much agrees with.

Aho signed 8.5x5.

Based on that, what do you think is fair at 5 years for Marner, Rantanen, and Point? (Not considering the inevitable Marner overpayment in the equation.)

Within that range. Look at hockey reference and see the Goals. Points Raw and per game.

That’s how they should rank.

Point is a C so he should get more. But as you showed. taxes are a massive advantage there.

Aho played C this year. Sure. But he hadn’t for the first 2 years.

Rantanen is probably the closest comparable. But again. Rantanen gets 50 more pps than marner just by playing in Colorado.

If they all get close to each other. I’m not going to cry about a few hundred k.

I want them to go last.

 

[93LEAFS]

The fact remains that $6.96 whatever million Nylander makes is chump change in this cap landscape. Guys who signed for $7 million plus in 2018 and beyond include James van Riemsdyk, Kevin Hayes, Anders Lee and Evander Kane, and I don't want any of their UFA years. Nylander's contract isn't a super bargain at Mackinnon and Schiefele levels, but it's a win. It's time whiners wake up and realize this.

It helped set what is currently in motion though. It was on the very high-end of his comparables, then Matthews deal broke the ceiling. I think they will both live up to it, just like I think Marner will likely live up to his demands, if that is how we are going to justify these RFA contracts. As stated earlier, I sure as hell would rather pay Marner 13m a season at 28, then be paying the back-end of Barrie at 8.5m a year.

 

[Suntouchable13]

The fact remains that $6.96 whatever million Nylander makes is chump change in this cap landscape. Guys who signed for $7 million plus in 2018 and beyond include James van Riemsdyk, Kevin Hayes, Anders Lee and Evander Kane, and I don't want any of their UFA years. Nylander's contract isn't a super bargain at Mackinnon and Schiefele levels, but it's a win. It's time whiners wake up and realize this.

The Marner ask is so big and crazy that these two contracts aren't even comparable anymore.

I think that Willy has a much better chance to live up to his contract than Matthews to his or Marner to his future deal.

 

[Legion34]

What they're specifically mad about is the precedent he's setting with RFA'S.

ufa's have always made outrageous money. That's what happens when nobody owns their rights and they play 31 gm's against each other.

Again. They are all within comparables so far.

Did dubas make a time machine to make kovalchuk. And Nash etc sign for 13.85-16.54?

 

[Notsince67]

So you think he should want MORE than 11 x 7?

He doesnt want 7 or 8. He isnt dumb. He knows he would make more with a shorter deal so he isnt selling those years. Not sure why it is ok that Matthews didnt sign for 7 or 8 years. A lot of people here are convinced marner isnt worth that money anyways. Why are people upset that the deal didnt get done? Sign him for lower dollars at a lower cap and be happy when he underperforms those big kind of numbers. Just dont whine if he becomes a lot more expensive than those numbers down the road. Matthews got a player friendly contract and he is being touted as the next captain. Why sould a lowly rwer with a meager 94 points while being carried be forced to set the standard? Marner is just a sub 70 point player without Tavares right

 

[A1LeafNation]

Berube has been an NHL coach before and the Blues were a veteran team

You are right, but there have been rookie coaches who won cups. I think Bylsma. Also a rookie coach in TO who just won a championship too. It's not a big deal imo.

 

[hotpaws]

Who cares? Just because Matthews' contract is bad does not we should want Marner's to be.

no one wants Marner to get overpaid , the discussion however is about Marner's rumored ask

 

[Stephen]

It helped set what is currently in motion though. It was on the very high-end of his comparables, then Matthews deal broke the ceiling. I think they will both live up to it, just like I think Marner will likely live up to his demands, if that is how we are going to justify these RFA contracts. As stated earlier, I sure as hell would rather pay Marner 13m a season at 28, then be paying the back-end of Barrie at 8.5m a year.

I don't think the Nylander contract set the Marner talks into motion because it's pretty obvious the Marner camp has angled negotiations to get to this point by refusing to negotiate until the Matthews bar was set. And the Matthews contract was basically determined as the midway point between McDavid and Eichel.

Nylander's contract is a win because they were able to untangle Nylander from Marner and keep his long term deal at less than $7 million AAV.

 

[Legion34]

He doesnt want 7 or 8. He isnt dumb. He knows he would make more with a shorter deal so he isnt selling those years. Not sure why it is ok that Matthews didnt sign for 7 or 8 years. A lot of people here are convinced marner isnt worth that money anyways. Why are people upset that the deal didnt get done? Sign him for lower dollars at a lower cap and be happy when he underperforms those big kind of numbers. Just dont whine if he becomes a lot more expensive than those numbers down the road. Matthews got a player friendly contract and he is being touted as the next captain. Why sould a lowly rwer with a meager 94 points while being carried be forced to set the standard? Marner is just a sub 70 point player without Tavares right

And the report that he wants like a qualifiying offer of 15?

 

[Notsince67]

My point is this: other gms need to mind their own business.

Should Dubas then, mind his own business when other teams sign cheaper contracts to their players? This is getting really confusing.

 

[hotpaws]

My point is this: other gms need to mind their own business.

it's kind of hard for them to mind their own business when all the high end rfa's are waiting to see how hard Dubas gets bent over to use the Marner deal as a comparable

 

[Stephen]

He doesnt want 7 or 8. He isnt dumb. He knows he would make more with a shorter deal so he isnt selling those years. Not sure why it is ok that Matthews didnt sign for 7 or 8 years. A lot of people here are convinced marner isnt worth that money anyways. Why are people upset that the deal didnt get done? Sign him for lower dollars at a lower cap and be happy when he underperforms those big kind of numbers. Just dont whine if he becomes a lot more expensive than those numbers down the road. Matthews got a player friendly contract and he is being touted as the next captain. Why sould a lowly rwer with a meager 94 points while being carried be forced to set the standard? Marner is just a sub 70 point player without Tavares right

What people have to understand is the Toronto Maple Leafs value Auston Matthews far more than Mitch Marner. That's just the reality. It's an unhealthy fixation that Marner's camp has taken into negotiations and I don't think it can be remedied. And I don't think there's another organization that can validate Mitch along those premises either.

 

[mouser]

Precisely. Only one key RFA forward is in the Eastern Conference (Point). It's much more volatile out west with Tkachuk, Rantanen, Laine, etc.

Teams aren't going to cripple themselves waiting on Marner. His demands are beyond the pale. The market will dictate his worth.

FWIW, my preference is the Leafs let him sit. Hard deadline of October 1st, then shut down to next year. Let him play in Switzerland, his value will only drop. Players can only negotiate with one team, but teams have a whole system of guys who get the chance to fill his spot.

If he loses the year, he loses 11M$ dollars. If he's played in Europe, even if he puts up 200 points in Switzerland, no one is going to pay him enough to make up that loss. Basic economics, his representation is playing a game of chicken.

Ideally that sounds like a good approach, the fly in the ointment is if Marner goes unsigned after October 1st then an Offer Sheet becomes more and more difficult to match. Teams can put together offer sheets in November for less then four 1st round picks that would see Marner well compensated and requiring the Leafs to move out salary to match.