Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion - Training camp looms

[Legion34]

Because they're waiting for Marner.

There are VERY few people like you who think Matthews contract was fair value (yes yes yes... we all know the stats you dug REAL deep to find to try and rationalize it. Almost everybody still disagrees with you though).

So due to that contract that the vast majority view as a humiliating overpayment, Dubas has a poor reputation. The other players/agents are waiting for overpayment Mcgee to do it again with Marner and throw the market even further on it's head.

This is pretty much genearlly accepted by almost everybody at this point. The other rfa's are waiting for the inevitable Marner overpayment. And did you see the rumors dished out today, supported even by people like Mackenzie? It seems the other rfa's/agents were RIGHT to wait for Marner.

Just to be clear? Do the stats and actual evidence change because I actually looked? EXACTLY where dubas told us to look?

Or appealing to people’s opinions who don’t actually look is somehow smart?

So why didn’t aho wait? Is he dumb then? Should his contract be higher?

 

[Suntouchable13]

Pierre LeBrun reports that NHL GM's are upset with Dubas for setting a precedent with that five year deal:

there are some very dumb gms out there who gave a Kevin Hayes 7+ mil per and Bobrovsky 10. There are tons of other horrendous contracts.

 

[Bomber0104]

there are some very dumb gms out there who gave a Kevin Hayes 7+ mil per and Bobrovsky 10. There are tons of other horrendous contracts.

Those were UFA's, not RFA's...

 

[Alerion]

One, 7x6 isn't much different than 8.5mx8, so, really, if you are signing Willy to a 6-year deal, how much does it actually change considering you are buying up two more UFA years. Two, Marner has been better than Willy at every age they have been Leaf property. Another Factor people constantly forget about comparing the Willy and Mitch situations, Marner is an UFA in 4 years, Willy is only one in 5 due to how we deployed him in 2015/16 at this time last year. So, that alone makes them priced different even if they are comparable players.

1.5 million is 1.5 million, if Matthews was signed for 10.134 million that contract would be viewed a lot differently. Up until 18/19, Marner and Nylander were comparable, with Marner having a slight edge. Here's their 16/17 and 17/18 seasons:

	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
M	159	41	89	130	0.818
N	163	42	90	132	0.810

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

If you give Marner 8x9-9.5 in summer 2018 like you're suggesting, Nylander is immediately going to want the same deal. Any money Toronto could have saved on Marner is immediately being spent on Nylander, it's a moot point. Dubas could have saved himself this current headache, but I don't think any GM makes that decision without the benefit of hindsight. Marner's camp is out of control right now.

 

[Go4soda]

We all knew Mitch and his Dad would be a headache.

Dubas did this to himself. He set the stage with Willy for how every agent would deal with him moving forward. He didn't have the balls to sit Willy and trade him. That's why this is extra out of hand.

Not a fan of how dubas handled the nylander negotiations either . But something tells me this is tied more to Matthews than anything. If the team let nylander sit, then traded him , we’d still be right here with marner.
Dubas’ legacy would be the GM who lost 2 elite young talents right off their entry level contracts, because he couldn’t get them done.
Kind of a lose/lose.

 

[A1LeafNation]

hahaha! the best post in the thread

Worked for St Louis.

 

[Menzinger]

Dubas leaked his expected price and contract deals to Mirtle post-Tavares, all of them have blown up outside of his estimate, and it pissed off all the agents involved. There were no leaks with Matthews because there wasn't a negotiation. He gave them a couple of options at crazy prices and they took one.

Ferris was on tsn radio before the season was over throwing shade on the Leafs position. I don't think that exactly paints him.in the best light. That alleged 9 miion ask last season was a joke, just like the current demands are.

The Matthew's contract is had
Rdly a steal, but it locks the teams best player up for the next half decade at a aav that is manageable. That's all the Lesfs need from Marner. And given how they seemingly fly have done right by every other rfa they e signed, it seems fairly preposterous to suggest this mess has to do with management's behavior. Saying "no" to joke requests isnt being unfair to the player

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Just to be clear? Do the stats and actual evidence change because I actually looked? EXACTLY where dubas told us to look?

Or appealing to people’s opinions who don’t actually look is somehow smart?

So why didn’t aho wait? Is he dumb then? Should his contract be higher?

Yes. Just like how some gm's can be dumb (Dubas), agents can as well (Aho's agent).

He most CERTAINLY should have waited for the inevitable Marner overpayment.

You really think Rantanen has had offers like 11x7?

And if Marner accepted 11x7, you really think Aho would have settled for 8.5x5?

 

[Throw More Waffles]

there are some very dumb gms out there who gave a Kevin Hayes 7+ mil per and Bobrovsky 10. There are tons of other horrendous contracts.

I really don't like this method of defending Dubas by pointing out other horrible blunders made by other gm's.

Is that really supposed to make any of us feel better about it? "Hey... Dubas may be a complete and total idiot... but other gm's are sometimes idiots too." So what?

 

[Legion34]

Yes. Just like how some gm's can be dumb (Dubas), agents can as well (Aho's agent).

He most CERTAINLY should have waited for the inevitable Marner overpayment.

You really think Rantanen has had offers like 11x7?

And if Marner accepted 11x7, you really think Aho would have settled for 8.5x5?

Ok so if aho signed for too low....... then he doesn’t really count as a comparable right?

I don’t know what Rantanens offers are? We don’t know until we know.

We have heard reports that provorov and tkachuk want 10. We also heard tkachuk wants 5 years.

We will see. Dubas has given reasonable deals so far.

He may overpay on marner. We will see

 

[Maplebeasts]

and Mathews isn't McDavid yet it hasn't stopped many on here defending the contract he signed

Who cares? Just because Matthews' contract is bad does not we should want Marner's to be.

 

[8816 others]

If he isn't signed by the start of camp, I want a clause in his contract offer that he must fire his agent and his father barred from all player/team business. If he isn't signed by the start of the season, then ship him out.


I really like The Hockey Guy's idea for holdout RFA's by having the deadline moved from December 1st to opening night of the regular season. Not signed by then? See you next year.

 

[mclaren55]

If it’s true about the 11x7/8, please trade him or sit him out the whole year. Dubas has to play hardball. We can’t pay this much and be competitive in the playoffs. Our defense is going to suffer mightily over the next three years if we have all our cash tied up in our top 6. I had such high hopes a few years ago....

 

[93LEAFS]

Ferris was on tsn radio before the season was over throwing shade on the Leafs position. I don't think that exactly paints him.in the best light. That alleged 9 miion ask last season was a joke, just like the current demands are.

The Matthew's contract is had
Rdly a steal, but it locks the teams best player up for the next half decade at a aav that is manageable. That's all the Lesfs need from Marner. And given how they seemingly fly have done right by every other rfa they e signed, it seems fairly preposterous to suggest this mess has to do with management's behavior. Saying "no" to joke requests isnt being unfair to the player

Again, Nylander's deal dragged into December 1st, so management hasn't been great at sorting these out or sorting them out quickly.

The Matthews deal was without precedent in the current NHL. I likely think we come out on top of it, because in the end its better to pay and keep elite young players, than sign decent to good but not elite players to long-term deals past 30.

Nylander asked for the same deal which was 8X8.5, and they came down to 7x6, despite the fact Nylander would only be selling 3 UFA years to Marner's 4. So, 8.5 to 9 actually is far from out of line considering every factor (UFA years bought, ability at younger ages, etc), when we paid Nylander out in December.

 

[Bomber0104]

Who cares? Just because Matthews' contract is bad does not we should want Marner's to be.

The problem is because Matthews' contract is bad, Marner's agent is going to try to bend Dubas into giving him an equally bad one (or good from his perspective)...

It may not be exactly the same in term or dollars...but it'll be close.

 

[Stephen]

Sure but wouldn't it have been "fair" of Matthews to give the Leafs more term?

Apparently this one-way idea of fairness you harbor only applies to Marner.

They gave Matthews a blank cheque and now Marner (who's outscored him two of three seasons) wants close to the same.

Seeing as how Marner's already turned down $11M over 7 years, he's already well on his way to getting close to the Matthews deal...

Dubas has only himself to blame.

Marner's never had to carry a line in a way Matthews has consistently done throughout his career. He was well insulated with capable veteran scorers for the first two years and then was given an $11 million center that resulted in his breakthrough season. I'd be curious to add up the salaries of Matthews linemates over the first three years of his career and see if the grand total even reaches $11 million combined for the 3x years.

 

[Maplebeasts]

Because you are wrong. More points. More 5 on 5 points. Kills penalties JT had 25 more 5 on 5 points then his best year.

He also did not miss time with injury, plays with JT who is farrrrr and away better than Matthews's linemates, scores a lot fewer goals and doesn't play the premier position. It would be cool if people could at least look at factors other than "muh points" on occasion

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Ok so if aho signed for too low....... then he doesn’t really count as a comparable right?

I don’t know what Rantanens offers are? We don’t know until we know.

We have heard reports that provorov and tkachuk want 10. We also heard tkachuk wants 5 years.

We will see. Dubas has given reasonable deals so far.

He may overpay on marner. We will see

Aho signed for fair market value other than what Dubas has/will do to the market.

Pre Dubas, 8.5x5 is perfectly fair for Aho. Probably on the upper end of fair.

But Dubas has thrown the entire market on it's head. So if Aho only cared about maximizing his contract, he should have waited for the inevitable Marner overpayment (Marner is a closer comparable to Aho than Matthews).

The Aho contract should have lessoned Marner's leverage. But I honestly think at this point that Dubas has absolutely no idea how to play the game.

 

[Sypher04]

If they put any serious negotiation past what do you want into that deal, they truly messed up. They didn't didn't negotiate tough at all like they are have with Willy and Marner. Although, they caved on Willy. They feared an offer-sheet and bad PR so, they caved to 5 years very quickly.

There really isn't a shred of logic that can arrive you at the conclusion they caved on Nylander. They took him 20 minutes to the RFA deadline, where Nylander then phoned them to agree to a deal. Not the other way around. Nylander got on the higher end of his comparables because his ELC production warranted it. His ask was obviously even higher

 

[Mr Hockey]

Worked for St Louis.

Berube has been an NHL coach before and the Blues were a veteran team

 

[Stephen]

If they put any serious negotiation past what do you want into that deal, they truly messed up. They didn't didn't negotiate tough at all like they are have with Willy and Marner. Although, they caved on Willy. They feared an offer-sheet and bad PR so, they caved to 5 years very quickly.

They didn't cave on Willy. Willy wanted Draisaitl money and settled for a few hundred thousand over the Larkin, Pastrnak and Ehlers of the world and has quickly been surpassed by much bigger deals in the past calendar year.

 

[Notsince67]

What are your thoughts on the McKenzie reports?

Im reading 11 x 8. If true im not sure what people are freaked out about. Matthews scaled contract to 8 years would be 13.21mm (add max salary to the next 3 after the 5). If we are calibrating to 7 years, it would have been 12.82. He aint worth 2.21mm or 1.82mm per year more than Marner and Marner is damn well right in turing the deal down if true. Matthews will likely exceed those 2 numbers. He will now make more because of the rising cap and becoming a ufa in 5 years

 

[Legion34]

Aho signed for fair market value other than what Dubas has/will do to the market.

Pre Dubas, 8.5x5 is perfectly fair for Aho. Probably on the upper end of fair.

But Dubas has thrown the entire market on it's head. So if Aho only cared about maximizing his contract, he should have waited for the inevitable Marner overpayment (Marner is a closer comparable to Aho than Matthews).

The Aho contract should have lessoned Marner's leverage. But I honestly think at this point that Dubas has absolutely no idea how to play the game.

Then it should have lessened the rest right?

 

[Legion34]

Im reading 11 x 8. If true im not sure what people are freaked out about. Matthews scaled contract to 8 years would be 13.21mm (add max salary to the next 3 after the 5). If we are calibrating to 7 years, it would have been 12.82. He aint worth 2.21mm or 1.82mm per year more than Marner and Marner is damn well right in turing the deal down if true. Matthews will likely exceed those 2 numbers. He will now make more because of the rising cap and becoming a ufa in 5 years

So you think he should want MORE than 11 x 7?

 

[93LEAFS]

They didn't cave on Willy. Willy wanted Draisaitl money and settled for a few hundred thousand over the Larkin, Pastrnak and Ehlers of the world and has quickly been surpassed by much bigger deals in the past calendar year.

8.5x8, isn't about the equivalent of 7x6 considering we only bought one UFA year, compared to Draisaitl selling 4 UFA years. Larkin, Pastrnak and Ehlers all sold off 2 UFA years. People really forget that angle to the negotiation.