Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion Part XIX - Bert's Back in the Thread Title Game

Which would you choose


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supermann_98

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May 8, 2002
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No,

Matthews is a 10m x 8Y guy.
Marner is an 8.5-9m x 8Y guy.
Nylander was a 6.5-7m x 8Y guy.

Dubas overpaid.
He had no choice because all 3 have proven to be money hungry and greedy.

I can tell you right now though If Matthews reached RFA he would have a number of offer sheets coming across his desk and I shudder to think how much more than 11.6m they would be for.

Marner is a 90-100 point winger, Matthews is a 40 goal scoring 6’3, 225lb center who will likely score 90-100 points, injuries notwithstanding. Those who argue Marner is worth as much or even more than Matthews are ludicrous
 

Advanced stats

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May 26, 2010
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I hope everyone realizes that mitch's agent is just playing games and he'll cave eventually. He does this with all of his clients.
 

deprw

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Mar 7, 2010
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OK. I think (?) I have your answer. You are OK with trading Marner and dealing with the consequences no matter what they are.

Well if he wants 8 figures with short term his probably untradeable. So his either playing for Leafs or lowering his contract demands for other team. Where is Marners leverage in this case?
 

hotpaws

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Nov 21, 2009
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McDavid 8 x 12.5m, cap at start of contract was 78M= 16.02% of cap

Matthews 5 x 11.634

Using evolving wild's prediction on rfa / ufa contracts, I calculate about 14% more expected AAV for a 8yr vs 5 yr contract.

So Matthews 11.634 x 1.14 / 81.5 cap hit = 16. 27% of cap

Looks pretty close to me.

What am i missing?

you're missing the goal is defend Dubas by spinning AM's deal as a fair market contract , it's not to have a valid discussion
 

HolyCrap

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Oct 2, 2015
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Knowing the team can't win a round without him, and jobs are on the line if that happens, possibly even Kyle's

Imagine if Marner sits and they win their first round. Lol. We haven’t gotten past the first round with him yet either. It’s not like he’s some playoff beast. We’re a far better team with him but not for a ridiculous price.
 

Mess

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Feb 27, 2002
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We have no idea what Matthew's contract will be in the next 5 years. And still doesnt change the fact that McDavid carries a higher aav and makes more real dollars. The claim that Matthew's has the more valuable contract is a falsehood.

Are you saying Matthews gets $58.17 mil and McDavid is getting $100 mil on this 2nd contract and therefore McDavid gets more $$ and higher AAV but completely ignoring that one contract is 5 years and the other is 8 years in length?

So what happens in 5 years ?? You will need to add those next 3 years earnings to this current deal so that you're comparing 8 years for both players.

If Matthews contract was at 8 years today at his current rate = $11.634 X 8 = $93.07 mil vs McDavid 8 years @ $12.5 mil = $100 mil = approx $7 mil difference over those 8 years.

Now in 5 years time when Matthews is a UFA, the odds he can't make up that lost $7 mil difference over the course of his next 3 seasons to get more than McDavid's $100 mil over that same time period is virtually ZERO %..

Considering the going rate $ for a 28 year old Tavares in 2018-19 just signed for $11 mil AAV then in in 2024-25 pretty safe bet that Matthews next deal isn't coming in below McDavid at $12.5 mil and therefore by extension his AAV will be higher also.

Your point is only valid for the next 5 years, because then its flips in the last 3 years where Matthews will make more $$/season and have the higher AAV than McDavid.

That is exactly Marner's similar position when using Matthews as his comparable as its the term that is driving this holdout for the same reason as wanting to cash in big in 5-6 years time as a UFA.
 
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deprw

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Mar 7, 2010
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Knowing the team can't win a round without him, and jobs are on the line if that happens, possibly even Kyle's

If we can't win without him we're screwed anyway. If Marner wants clear overpayment to sign, I'll blame him not the management, when his not signed and losing money.

If Marners camp are using blackmailing as strategy I wouldn't even want to sign the player.

I think Marners camp is risking his face value big time and in the long run they're going to lose more money with this tactic, rather than being the hometown hero and poster boy.
 

deprw

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Mar 7, 2010
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No,

Matthews is a 10m x 8Y guy.
Marner is an 8.5-9m x 8Y guy.
Nylander was a 6.5-7m x 8Y guy.

Dubas overpaid.

Those contract might have been on the table last summer. Matthews contract would have been big if and if you give that contract to Marner you pay Nylander 7,5 - 8m x 8Y.

But good luck signing those contracts few weeks into your contract as GM before setting your front office properly.
 

Gallagbi

Formerly Eazy_B97
Jul 5, 2005
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We have no idea what Matthew's contract will be in the next 5 years. And still doesnt change the fact that McDavid carries a higher aav and makes more real dollars. The claim that Matthew's has the more valuable contract is a falsehood.
You're right. McDavid's deal isn't "richer", it's just significantly better value given the term and quality of players.
 

BoredBrandonPridham

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Aug 9, 2011
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Geez. Man, he got $6.96M when the Leafs had already used up part of that $79.5. His hit last year was not based on the whole $79.5, it was based on what the Leafs had left and how the contract was structured. His cap hit for the year signed was about $10.2M or almost 13% of cap. This is fact.
Under the way the NHL calculates cap hits when a player holds out is the only reason it is the same cap money, but not the same % hit in year one as the following years. They don`t simply divide the contract by time actually under contract, like you are doing.
The Leafs took advantage of a loophole where they had extra cap space last year and could afford a bigger cap hit, while knowing they will have less moving forward. They structured the contract to take a bigger hit in year one and lower in 2-6. I could structure it differently for same total money and have a higher cap hit than his current one for years 2-6. How it was structured is why years 2-6 is lower and 1st year so high. How it is structured doesn`t change his cap hit% at time of signing, but it will change the hit per year in the years following the first year.

The Leafs did not structure a contract to take a higher hit in year 1 so that they would have a lower hit in the out years. You don’t seem to understand what the in-year adjustment is.

The in year adjustment is design to not incentivise a team to force a hold out in such a way that they can lower the players cap hit in year 1. Therefore, by inflating the in-year cap hit proportionately to the number of missed games, it causes the players cap hit to be exactly the same in year 1 as it is in all other years despite signing in season.

Since cap accrues daily and Nylander wasn’t on the roster until Dec 1, the inflation in year 1 causes Nylander to have exactly a $6.96m cap hit in year 1.

The reason the AAV ($6.96m) in years 2-6 looks less than the dollars earned is because Nylander didn’t earn the amount of salary proportional to the number of games he missed.

There is no loophole here. The number $7.5m has 0 relevance no matter how you look at this. It doesn’t represent how much money Nylander earned yearly on average (that number is 6.96), it doesn’t represent how much he cost on the cap in year 1 (that number is 6.96), and it doesn’t represent how much he costs on the cap in years 2-6 (that number is $6.96).

The only number that matters is 6.96 / 8.8% of cap.
 

Gallagbi

Formerly Eazy_B97
Jul 5, 2005
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He had no choice because all 3 have proven to be money hungry and greedy.

I can tell you right now though If Matthews reached RFA he would have a number of offer sheets coming across his desk and I shudder to think how much more than 11.6m they would be for.

Marner is a 90-100 point winger, Matthews is a 40 goal scoring 6’3, 225lb center who will likely score 90-100 points, injuries notwithstanding. Those who argue Marner is worth as much or even more than Matthews are ludicrous
From the reports, he had the option to sign Marner last offseason to a better deal than were looking at now
 
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RLF

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May 5, 2014
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The Leafs did not structure a contract to take a higher hit in year 1 so that they would have a lower hit in the out years. You don’t seem to understand what the in-year adjustment is.

The in year adjustment is design to not incentivise a team to force a hold out in such a way that they can lower the players cap hit in year 1. Therefore, by inflating the in-year cap hit proportionately to the number of missed games, it causes the players cap hit to be exactly the same in year 1 as it is in all other years despite signing in season.

Since cap accrues daily and Nylander wasn’t on the roster until Dec 1, the inflation in year 1 causes Nylander to have exactly a $6.96m cap hit in year 1.

The reason the AAV ($6.96m) in years 2-6 looks less than the dollars earned is because Nylander didn’t earn the amount of salary proportional to the number of games he missed.

There is no loophole here. The number $7.5m has 0 relevance no matter how you look at this. It doesn’t represent how much money Nylander earned yearly on average (that number is 6.96), it doesn’t represent how much he cost on the cap in year 1 (that number is 6.96), and it doesn’t represent how much he costs on the cap in years 2-6 (that number is $6.96).

The only number that matters is 6.96 / 8.8% of cap.

Really?

If an RFA signs after the season starts, how is their cap hit calculated?

When a restricted free agent signs a contract after the NHL season has already begun, their cap hit for the first year is greater than the contracts annual average, and similarly the cap hit of the remaining years is less than that of the annual average.

A notable aspect of the following calculation is that the sum of the cap hit values is greater than if the contract was signed before season start (and used the normal AAV calculation; monetary value of the contract divided by the total years)

The cap hit of the years after the first year of the contract is calculated first:
Cap hit after the first year = (First year salary × season days remaining / total season days + contract value remaining) / contract years

The first years cap hit is then calculated:
First years cap hit = cap hit after the first year × total season days / season days remaining

Example:
Hampus Lindholm of the Anaheim Ducks signed a $31,500,000 contract on Oct 27, 2016 in the 2016-17 season. There were 164 days remaining in the season on this date. The contract break down was as follows:
2016-17: $3,000,000
2017-18: $6,000,000
2018-19: $6,750,000
2019-20: $5,250,000
2020-21: $3,750,000
2021-22: $6,750,000
Total: $31,500,000
Annual Average: $5,250,000

The cap hit values are calculated as follows:
Cap hit (2017-18 to 2021-2022) = ($3,000,000 × 164 / 180 + $28,500,000) / 6 = $5,205,556
Cap hit (2016-17) = $5,205,556 × 180 / 164 = $5,713,415

The cap hit breakdown is therefore as follows:
2016-17: $5,713,415
2017-18: $5,205,556
2018-19: $5,205,556
2019-20: $5,205,556
2020-21: $5,205,556
2021-22: $5,205,556
Total: $31,741,294
Average: $5,290,216

Why don't you try working it out if they only paid Willy $5M the first season instead of $12M. Thanks for educating me.
 

Legion34

Registered User
Jan 24, 2006
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spin/deflect/shift the goal posts all you like but it's obvious your on an island all your own

there's no comparable to what Mathews signed for , Dubas **** himself at thought of having another a long protracted holdout or an offer sheet and basically dropped his pants and bent over , everyone sees this but you and a few others

Ummm there are multiple comparables.

Take a look. Cap friendly is a thing
 

BertCorbeau

F*ck cancer - RIP Fugu and Buffaloed
Jan 6, 2012
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Given that basically all of the big name RFA's have not signed, it's a reasonable indication that had Matthews not signed in-season, that we could have been looking at a situation where both Marner and Matthews head into the season

Does that make the Leafs better off in the Marner negotiations? I have no idea.
 

ITM

I've seen things you people wouldn't believe...
Jan 26, 2012
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Is the belief that had Nylander not called, Dubas wouldn't have made a final attempt to sign him?
Pro-rating the contract back to the start of the season makes Dubas look like he caved.

Of course that’s the belief. And a reasonable one at that if you believe the parties involved.

Had Nylander Not Called: That’s the ONLY premise we have to work from. YT Dubas’ and Nylander’s interviews after the deal was done and get back to me with what other belief other than, Had Nylander Not Called...
 

Throw More Waffles

Unprecedented Dramatic Overpayments
Oct 9, 2015
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He had no choice because all 3 have proven to be money hungry and greedy.

I can tell you right now though If Matthews reached RFA he would have a number of offer sheets coming across his desk and I shudder to think how much more than 11.6m they would be for.

Marner is a 90-100 point winger, Matthews is a 40 goal scoring 6’3, 225lb center who will likely score 90-100 points, injuries notwithstanding. Those who argue Marner is worth as much or even more than Matthews are ludicrous

At what point is there a common denominator? Instead of leaf players being greedy... is it possible that rookie Dubas was just a horrible negotiator?
 
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