Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion Part XIX - Bert's Back in the Thread Title Game

Which would you choose


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Again, no he didn't.

McDavid earns more real money and carries a higher aav (even taking into account just the first 5 years of his contract).

Of course it is..

When Matthews contract is up in 5 years the NHL's best player McDavid will still be under contract for multiple years.

So Matthews as a UFA will be signing his years 6-8 of his McDavid deal at ~$15 mil AAV (Best guess and could much higher).

So when you look at equal length of full term 8 years

McDavid = 8 X $12.5 mil AAV = $100 mil total.
vs
Matthews = 5 years X 11.634 mil + 3 years @ ~$15 mil AAV = $103.17 mil total [$12.896 AAV average]

So when McDavid is still making $12.5 AAV Matthews will now be on contract 3 and be having a ~$15 mil AAV and end up costing +$2.5 mil more AAV per year than Connor.

Leafs are paying more $$$ over the next 8 years for Matthews,than McDavid and his AAV will be higher after 5 years and its only [$12.5 mil - $11.634 mil] = $866k less savings for the next 5 years.

PS. That doesn't even factor in the possibility of the risk of Matthews walking away as a UFA in 5 years.

That is why Marner and Matthews don't want to lock in long term because they hope to sell the least amount of UFA years today while using up their RFA years to position themselves to break the bank financially on their 3 contract deals at UFA prices at the youngest age possible.
 
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Menzinger

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That is just contract structure. McDavid is giving up 3 more UFA years, so the overall contract should be more. If Matthews signed for 8 years, do you think it would have carried an AAV of $11.6M or more?

Maybe, but we cant say for certain.
 

Menzinger

Kessel4LadyByng
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Of course it is..

When Matthews contract is up in 5 years the NHL's best player McDavid will still be under contract for multiple years.

So Matthews as a UFA will be signing his years 6-8 of his McDavid deal at ~$15 mil AAV

So when you look at equal length of full term 8 years

McDavid = 8 X $12.5 mil AAV = $100 mil
vs
Matthews = 5 years X 11.634 mil + 3 years @ ~$15 mil AAV = $103.17

So when McDavid is still making $12.5 AAV Matthews will now be on contract 3 and be having a ~$15 mil AAV and end up costing +$2.5 mil more AAV per year than Connor.

PS. That doesn't even factor in the possibility of the risk of Matthews walking away as a UFA in 5 years.

We have no idea what Matthew's contract will be in the next 5 years. And still doesnt change the fact that McDavid carries a higher aav and makes more real dollars. The claim that Matthew's has the more valuable contract is a falsehood.
 

Ziggdiezan

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Apr 10, 2015
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Marner's probably not ever scoring 40 goals, I'll admit, but Marner scored only 3 less goals than Kucherov in their respective 21-year-old seasons. I don't think Marner's likely to listen much to the concept that Kucherov is a "much" better goal scorer than him, and I wouldn't entirely blame him.



I disagree that a $10Mx3 contract does anything to our cap situation that's more than vaguely troublesome. Even without the cap going up, outside of Barrie and Muzzin, we really don't have anyone to sign, and there'll probably be at least 12M to spend on them if Marner signs for 10M. Add in the likely 2M+ minimum cap increase and I think you can sign both Barrie and Muzzin with cap room to spare for someone else. After that, the only other major contract we would need to sign during Marner's contract would be Andersen's, and you're probably not looking at more than a $2-3M raise on that one, which would probably be covered by cap increases.

I also don't think Marner owes the Leafs management anything. He doesn't need to take less than he thinks he worth, if it fits under the cap, and I think $10Mx3 does fit under our cap crunch pretty nicely.

I should say, however, that of course you try and talk down the number if you're Dubas if you can. But if Sept 30th comes along and Marner's camp hasn't budged, you give that contract offer to him.



Aho has only been a centre for one season. As good as it was, I don't think it factored in as much into the term and length as many think. I still don't think he's a good comparison to Marner.
All you have to do is watch the two players and you will see Kucherov has a much better shot, a wicked one timer and is inclined to shoot rather than pass more often than Marner. He is definitely a much better goal scorer than Marner.

The reasons a 10 x 3 screws the leafs cap is because a bridge is supposed to come with cap savings that could be used to bolster depth on the team. 10 million is no savings at all. The second reason is in 3 years Marner will want a raise but so will Rielly and Kapanen that year as well as Anderson the previous year.

He doesnt need to take less than he is worth but the leafs dont have to pay him what he thinks he is worth, which by all accounts is borderline delusional. 10 x 3 would be beyond brutal and it would not be good for the league.

I would rather Marner sit than give him 10 x 3. He will never make that money back from the year he misses and might learn that his demands are a little outrageous.
 

RLF

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Maybe, but we cant say for certain.

Nothing is for certain, but pretty safe to assume if we were getting 3 more UFA years, the AAV rises quite a bit. The odds are greatly in favour of an AAV closer to $13 per at that point than $11.6.
 

Suntouchable13

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All you have to do is watch the two players and you will see Kucherov has a much better shot, a wicked one timer and is inclined to shoot rather than pass more often than Marner. He is definitely a much better goal scorer than Marner.

The reasons a 10 x 3 screws the leafs cap is because a bridge is supposed to come with cap savings that could be used to bolster depth on the team. 10 million is no savings at all. The second reason is in 3 years Marner will want a raise but so will Rielly and Kapanen that year as well as Anderson the previous year.

He doesnt need to take less than he is worth but the leafs dont have to pay him what he thinks he is worth, which by all accounts is borderline delusional. 10 x 3 would be beyond brutal and it would not be good for the league.

I would rather Marner sit than give him 10 x 3. He will never make that money back from the year he misses and might learn that his demands are a little outrageous.

About Andersen, I hope Leafs walk away if his demands are much more than what he is making now. A rookie goalie just won a cup, you don't need a goalie making 7+ on the cap. Especially not someone who is slightly above average. I am not worried about Freddy needing a raise. Leafs should simply walk away.
 

KuleminFan41

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It works, but at 7+ for 3 years. He's still a 94 point player, he's not signing for 4-6 on any term.
Sure but he was also playing next to Tavares which increased his point totals by 25. It certainly wasn't all him that got that increase, playing with elite centres will do that for you. I can't recall many players who make a jump that large and consistently stay there. Also, you can't forget that he's a low scoring winger with 26 goals . Goal scoring and centres get paid
 
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thewave

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Again, no he didn't.

McDavid earns more real money and carries a higher aav (even taking into account just the first 5 years of his contract).

Sure but in 5 years they were expecting 100m cap, so how much is AM then? 16m a year? Call it 15%...

AM 58m + 45m = 103m (((45m is 15mx3 of his next contract.

Connor McDavid... 100m 8years

Its easily as good or better as you can see. Marners agent wasn't lying, and AM is nowhere near as good.
 

hotpaws

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Simply replying "there is no comparable" for Matthew's until you're red in the face doesnt make it any more true. Folks have already posted int this thresd and earlier incarnations of it the various ones since the formation ofnthebsalary cap. He earns more than a guy like Toews and less than Crosby/McDavid tiers. Which seems to be perfectly in line with where he should be.

That's also ignoring the variable that hes arguably the best goal scorer in the NHL at the moment and played the 1c position from his post draft year onwards
4th line was making the argument there aren't any comparable's and if Mathews signed for an 8yr term at this salary no one one be saying too much

factoring in the term makes his deal better than McD's regardless how you and a few others are trying to spin it
 
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4thline

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Sure but in 5 years they were expecting 100m, so how much is AM then? 16m a year? Call it 15%...

AM 58m + 45m = 103m (((45m is 15mx3 of his next contract.

Connor McDavid... 100m 8years

Its easily as good or better as you can see.

Yup, a player taking a discount results in a team friendly contract.
 

Ziggdiezan

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About Andersen, I hope Leafs walk away if his demands are much more than what he is making now. A rookie goalie just won a cup, you don't need a goalie making 7+ on the cap. Especially not someone who is slightly above average. I am not worried about Freddy needing a raise. Leafs should simply walk away.
If one of the leafs goalie prospects isnt ready in 2 years it will be pretty hard to walk from Anderson. Cant have a huge question mark in goal in the middle of your cup window.

Edit: I completely agree with not needing to pay goalies a ton but leafs may be in a tough spot and have to sign him or make a trade.
 
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Menzinger

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If one of the leafs goalie prospects isnt ready in 2 years it will be pretty hard to walk from Anderson. Cant have a huge question mark in goal in the middle of your cup window.

Edit: I completely agree with not needing to pay goalies a ton but leafs may be in a tough spot and have to sign him or make a trade.

Depends on what the trade market is like for goods around this time. I cant see a guy like Dubas looking to give term to a goalie in his mid 30s at that point
 
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Menzinger

Kessel4LadyByng
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Re all this crystal ball talk regarding contracts. Remember theres going to be a new CBS agreement in 2020 where there may end up.being new league rules (ie maybe limits on term length like 5 years)
 

4thline

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i've already wasted enough time on you

go argue with somebody else how's there's no comparable's and players/gm's just pull numbers out of thin air

Time that clearly should have been spent learning to read, because that's literally the exact opposite of my argument.
 
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Ziggdiezan

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Depends on what the trade market is like for goods around this time. I cant see a guy like Dubas looking to give term to a goalie in his mid 30s at that point
Wouldnt Anderson be like 31 or 32?

I agree though, it will largely depend on the price of what is available and if Anderson is willing to take a small term deal to stay on a contender.
 

hotpaws

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Time that should have been spent learning to read, clearly.
yea that's it

Eichel/McDavid and every other contract are not comparable's

only Sid who signed over a decade ago and was head and shoulders a better player than Mathews at the time he signed should be used as a comparable
 

4thline

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yea that's it

Eichel/McDavid and every other contract are not comparable's

only Sid who signed over a decade ago and was head and shoulders a better player than Mathews at the time he signed should be used as a comparable

Yup. Repeatedly typing out your misunderstanding/ misrepresentations kinda confirms it lol.
 

54thecup

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Again, no he didn't.

McDavid earns more real money and carries a higher aav (even taking into account just the first 5 years of his contract).


McDavid 8 x 12.5m, cap at start of contract was 78M= 16.02% of cap

Matthews 5 x 11.634

Using evolving wild's prediction on rfa / ufa contracts, I calculate about 14% more expected AAV for a 8yr vs 5 yr contract.

So Matthews 11.634 x 1.14 / 81.5 cap hit = 16. 27% of cap

Looks pretty close to me.

What am i missing?
 

Kiwi

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Re all this crystal ball talk regarding contracts. Remember theres going to be a new CBS agreement in 2020 where there may end up.being new league rules (ie maybe limits on term length like 5 years)

So? Crosby's contract would be illegal if you signed it now to

That still doesn't make Matthews contract any more palatable, it's an abomination and most people know it

We got nothing, the term was ****, the AAV was **** and he's got a NMC in the last year of his deal which is ****

The contract is ****
 
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