Marincin-Zaitsev should be our bottom pair

Nithoniniel

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Sep 7, 2012
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My primary counter would be that I don't expect one player to outright replace Gardiner. I see Zaitsev's increased offensive role (which is more suitable to his skill set than being used as a shutdown guy) combined with a quality 2nd pair guy to do the job. And they won't do it the same way. We may sacrifice some ability in certain respects but I think the trade off is worthwhile and still works out in our favour if the partner provides more stability.
Yeah this is not a bad thought.

I don't know if people noticed it but in the Boston series, they would cut off passing lanes from the left side of our zone, leaving the right side free. This made it very hard for Rielly, Gardiner, and Dermott to move the puck out, which meant that Hainsey and the others had to take that role. That's what you can do against a pairing that relies heavily on one player doing the bulk of the puck moving, so moving towards more equal partners is probably preferable.

Watching him in his most recent interviews for the worlds, he looked far more relaxed and was even cracking some jokes. I also think he should be rewarded for his strong play and would still start him at 4D and I think moving Hainsey down to the 3rd pairing with Dermott would be ideal for both Dermott's development and to keep Hainsey fresher in a more sheltered role while still being able to be a horse on the PK. Hainsey had a more or less reverse Zaitsev season in that he was way better than expected for the for most of the season and then ran outta juice at the end. Gards was the goat in the last game but its made him criminally underrated now so I would try to take advantage of that by signing him to a team friendly contract if possible.

I would not be surprised to see the Leafs make a move to acquire a first pairing D(Hainsey replacement) to play with Rielly, maybe even at the draft.
I agree about Hainsey. If we could move Dermott to the right side and acquire another solid RD like Pysyk, I would actually have a Hainsey - Zaitsev pairing as a third. That would indicate depth at defense, for once.
 

Man Bear Pig

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Hell to the no he doesn't, had a 2.1 Corsi rel last year.

The eye test shows he's elite at at breaking up zone entries, has had great games, I'm not going to say Gardiner is an AHLer just because he makes some big mistakes if his other plays more than makes up for it.
I think the issue with Marincin is that although he does put up solid corsi numbers, he makes huge mistakes. Mistakes that have cost the team games. And I really believe that if he were good enough, one of the 31 GM's in this league would give him another shot. I don't think you can just look at corsi as the be-all-end-all. Our new GM is someone who buys into it and I doubt even he would consider Marincin. He's just not that good.
 
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MR4

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I think a ton of people are forgetting Hainsey-Zaitsev has already been tried with terrible results. I'd rather Marincin over Hainsey on Zaitsev's LD
I think the issue with Marincin is that although he does put up solid corsi numbers, he makes huge mistakes. Mistakes that have cost the team games. And I really believe that if he were good enough, one of the 31 GM's in this league would give him another shot. I don't think you can just look at corsi as the be-all-end-all. Our new GM is someone who buys into it and I doubt even he would consider Marincin. He's just not that good.
Thing is, he puts up good Gf rel numbers too, meaning more goals scored than against when he's on. So his small good plays are clearly helping the team more than his big mistakes. Also, Dubas seems to like him enough to make it public:

 

Boutette

Been there done that
Sep 28, 2017
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He can't handle NHL speed. If he could he would be a top-4 lock for us with his defensive play. Or if he could improve his positioning to prevent that like Chara does, then he could work.

Rosen and Borgman are NHL ready for that bottom-pair LHD spot. I think Rosen gets the spot this year but wouldn't be surprised if Marincin gets one last chance after the performance he put in the AHL this year as their shutdown D.

Also, Dubas liked a tweet saying how Marincin was super underrated this year. :sarcasm:

And its fine that Marincin is an AHL all-star level player even if he can't hack it as an NHL player. He's one of the big reasons the Marlies have the best by far defence in the AHL, and I think its worth keeping him if he's willing, even at the high cost of qualifiying him. I don't see the problem with the organization paying a few hundred grand more than other org's do to ensure the Marlies (and the Growlers as well) maintain a winning attitude/tradition every year along with their parent club. That, of course is going to mean maintaining a few AAAA players to mentor our prospects and that is a good thing to have, IMHO.
 

LeafingTheWay

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May 31, 2014
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Zaitsev just transitions differently than Gardiner. Less flashy, but also prone to less mistakes.

When I talked about replacing his offense I was mainly referring to production.

Gardiner skates the puck well when he has open ice to work with but he also skates himself into trouble and holds the puck too long quite often. While Zaitsev won't *usually* carry it like Gardiner he also makes less risky plays, and relies more on efficient passing out to the forwards to create quick transition. On a different team that may be problematic but with our team speed it works quite well.

They're just different imo

You're not getting the point though. Zaitsev does not efficiently pass to make a quick transition. Zaitsev does not make less mistakes than Gardiner. Gardiner's main strength in transitioning is his efficient outlet passes, that's what I'm trying to tell you. For every 10 plays, he'll make a terrible eye-glaring mistake. Do we remember the other 9 plays? No. Do we even know he made 9 efficient other plays? No. What do we remember? The 1 risky play. The problem with Gardiner is those risky plays increase when he tries to carry the game/spark something. Against Boston for example in game 7, he tried way too much to spark the team. Had fifty gazillion risky plays. Didn't work, looked like an idiot. But the 6 games before that? No one even remembers his play from that.

We're moving on from him next season, but I think it's delusional to think Zaitsev can somehow improve his transition game 10x. If you want to replace Gardiner's transition play, you have to replace his minutes with Dermott, Carrick, Lilijegren or potentially even Rosen (fantastic transition game in the lower leagues imo).
 
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Sypher04

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You're not getting the point though. Zaitsev does not efficiently pass to make a quick transition. Zaitsev does not make less mistakes than Gardiner. Gardiner's main strength in transitioning is his efficient outlet passes, that's what I'm trying to tell you. For every 10 plays, he'll make a terrible eye-glaring mistake. Do we remember the other 9 plays? No. Do we even know he made 9 efficient other plays? No. What do we remember? The 1 risky play. The problem with Gardiner is those risky plays increase when he tries to carry the game/spark something. Against Boston for example in game 7, he tried way too much to spark the team. Had fifty gazillion risky plays. Didn't work, looked like an idiot. But the 6 games before that? No one even remembers his play from that.

We're moving on from him next season, but I think it's delusional to think Zaitsev can somehow improve his transition game 10x. If you want to replace Gardiner's transition play, you have to replace his minutes with Dermott, Carrick, Lilijegren or potentially even Rosen (fantastic transition game in the lower leagues imo).

It's not that I don't get your point... I just don't agree with you.

I stand by my statements.

I never said Zaitsev's transition game has been better, or as good, I said he's shown at times, as well as in KHL that he can be effective in transition

He is being misused imo. He was played to his strengths much better in rookie year but even then...

The injuries etc and hit to his confidence surely didn't help either.

As for your Gardiner rant. He does boneheaded stuff literally every game. He just doesn't get burned all the time as no player does. He wasn't only bad in game 7 this playoffs, but yeah he was good at other times. The point is he runs far too inconsistent. And blaming his game 7 screw ups on "trying to spark the team" seems like making excuses. We were in the game and didn't need a spark until he screwed up yo start. I would agree that it spiraled on him tho and he's not a -5 defender regularly
 
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LeafingTheWay

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He is being misused imo. He was played to his strengths much better in rookie year but even then...

The injuries etc and hit to his confidence surely didn't help either.

His possession numbers were worse in his rookie year (He was better production wise/in the offensive zone though). Last year in the playoffs, he was on for 0 goals for, 3 goals against, had a 43 CF% (team-worst Relative-CF% of -12), 41 xGF% (worst among our D, 2nd worst on team). He and Gardiner did play shutdown last year together in the playoffs (Highest QoC on the team), but Zaitsev was out for 2 games and somehow Gardiner's numbers were on the opposite side of the spectrum (amazing). The same thing in the regular season, except he was paired with Rielly in shutdown minutes again.

I get that you think if he had a defensive-minded partner beside him to allow him to be more offensive would help him out, but if that were the case then god-damn our whole team needs a defensive-minded partner to help them out :laugh: Literally. That would mean Rielly, Dermott, Zaitsev, Carrick and in the future Rosen, Borgman, Lilijegren all need a defensive-minded partner. We're truly screwed :laugh:

I'll agree to disagree I guess.
 

ULF_55

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Okay!

On the one hand it is being said Marincin makes glaring mistakes along with his good play and that makes him unsuitable for the NHL.
On the other hand it is being said Gardiner makes good plays along with his glaring, game costing mistakes making him suitable for a 1st. pairing defender.

On the one hand advanced stats are really underrated and the eyeball test should be disregarded unless underlying stats bear it out.
On the other hand that doesn't apply to Marincin.
 

DarkKnight

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I will like our defence when Hainsey is on the third pairing, and only playing half the PK's. Saying this is no slight on his contribution, more a statement of our deficiencies.
 

LeafingTheWay

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Okay!

On the one hand it is being said Marincin makes glaring mistakes along with his good play and that makes him unsuitable for the NHL.
On the other hand it is being said Gardiner makes good plays along with his glaring, game costing mistakes making him suitable for a 1st. pairing defender.

On the one hand advanced stats are really underrated and the eyeball test should be disregarded unless underlying stats bear it out.
On the other hand that doesn't apply to Marincin.

Except the fact his advanced stats last year (16-17) were terrible (outside of zone-entry prevention). The eye-test was terrible. There was no case for him, and I'm one who defended him in 15-16. He was great the year before that with the Leafs.

I'd love to give him a shot again though, he's been amazing in the AHL. If he does well in pre-season, then we can promote Dermott up to the top-4 and put in Carrick (Carrick was always out because we always needed a penalty-killing D).

Rielly - Dermott* (If he can handle it)
Gardiner - Carrick/Hainsey
Marincin - Zaitsev
 
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deletethis

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Yeah it's not because of his performance but more that he's a volatile person, so I want him to be put in a position to succeed while getting professional help so he can get rid of that habit he has of tearing himself down after a rough couple of games. I think that would benefit him a lot long-term.

I was taken back a little when you called him a volatile person then I read the rest of the post and understood what you meant by it. I think it's one of those expressions that only means its extreme in everyday English, in this case "very quick to anger". I'd probably say "fragile person". BTW I didn't know he had this issue to that level.
 
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HoweHullOrr

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Its an interesting thread at least. What it points out is that Marincin is good at some aspects of the game like breaking up zone entries and pinching while in the offensive zone. It also says he can't skate or pass well enough to be effective at getting out of our zone. Obviously it would be better if he was good at both seeing as all of these aspects are part of a defenders responsibilities. Hopefully we will find such defenders (or more of them).
 

lifelonghockeyfan

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Can't believe there is talk about Marincin returning . Good for him he played well in the AHL, but it's a different league.
Leafs have enough LHD to who have growth potential without Marincin.
Don't understand the nonsense....that he can play 3rd pairings. Even 3rd pairings play 14 minutes a night and usually at even strength. So even your 3rd pairing will be exposed unless they are NHL good.
 
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Joey Hoser

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Did Marincin even have good advanced stats in his time with the Leafs? I knew that was the case when we acquired him, but I don't know if that continued here.

The guy's problem is that he's a nervous wreck when he plays in the NHL. I don't think there's a stat for that. Maybe he has that confidence now.
 
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81Leafs50

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May 14, 2010
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Polak sucks in every sense of the word and he played regularly. We will need a new "PK" specialist that struggles with the puck knowing Babcock.

Polak does more than you "advanced stats loving, forget what you see on the tv" people know or realize. give it up. Those who more than you like Polak more. Who are you to use Corsi against Babcock or Shanahan or Lou?
 

SprDaVE

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Polak does more than you "advanced stats loving, forget what you see on the tv" people know or realize. give it up. Those who more than you like Polak more. Who are you to use Corsi against Babcock or Shanahan or Lou?

What?

He's a bad hockey player in every sense of the word.
 
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Al14

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He has no power over Babcock, he can't force Babcock to play Marincin, or anybody else
Why oh why would Dubas try to force Babcock to play Marincin? :facepalm:

If Babcock continues to make roster decisions that are not in the best interest of winning games, you better believe that Dubas, after discussing the issues with Shanahan, will have as much power as he needs to challenge Babcock!

If Babcock has more power than Dubas, then, I seriously question why Dubas would even remain in the organization, never mind taking the G.M. job!
 
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indigobuffalo

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TLDR, but I never want to see Marincin in a Leaf jersey again. He can’t think the game fast enough at the NHL level.

This pretty much. sadly...

He has good corsi because he is extremely good at gap control in the neutral zone. But he has no plan once he gets the puck. He just knocks it away from opponents really well.

He’s never going to gain the trust of Babcock and as such won't get the call up.

He should... but he won’t.
 

Rielly4

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He is effective at breaking up zone entries because of his long reach. He plays people tight on the entries and breaks it up with his long stick. He also gets beat a lot on entries because he plays it aggressively. He is a terrible breakout passer and has little to no composure in big games.

Stay away from Marincin in the NHL...But what we can learn from this is big defenders have a long reach and can be very effective ala Chara and Hedman...Hopeful for Rasanen!

As for the Gardiner vs Zaitsev debate...Its not close, Gardiner is the much more effective defender in every aspect except PK and physicality.

Gardiner-Rielly would be a great top pairing.
 

Menzinger

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This pretty much. sadly...

He has good corsi because he is extremely good at gap control in the neutral zone. But he has no plan once he gets the puck. He just knocks it away from opponents really well.

He’s never going to gain the trust of Babcock and as such won't get the call up.

He should... but he won’t.

Funny thing is either does Polak - all he knows how to do is dump the puck.

I can maybe see Marincin becoming the #7 D if Babcock opts to give him another chance after a strong AHL playoff performance
 

drewjenks

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A DFD has been on many Leafs fans' wish lists, and we have one in Marincin, the DFD version of Gardiner. Puts up good Corsi rel and GF% rel, and really all that matters is whether you score more than the other team, not whether you look pretty doing it, right?

Marincin-Zaitsev has had very limited minutes as a pair in the past but has shown to be an awesome pair, and I've come around enough to think this would be a beastly bottom pair. Why? Zaitsev was initially an offense focused D when he was brought in showing a higher level of play in his first season than what he's become playing with a more offense focused, more risky D partner in Gardiner that has forced Zaitsev to become something he's not. Zaitsev playing on the bottom pair would be a great spot for him to regain his confidence as an OFD, and would likely start to show signs he can significantly drive play.

So why is Marincin a good fit for Zaitsev's left? Well, that's because one of Zaitsev's worst skills is denying zone entries, when Marincin is elite at it. Just take a look at this article if you disagree: Chad Bradford, Martin Marincin, and the Imperfection of the Human Mind It brings up a good criticism of our judgements that we focus too much on the big mistake and not the many less noticeable good plays, and that defines the criticism of both Gardiner and Marincin.

The only issue I'd see with this pair is Zaitsev wasn't great at getting the puck out of the zone and Marincin hasn't ever had that as his strong point, but Zaitsev never had this extensive a problem with it until this year so I think he can reshape his game to being confident enough in his passing zone exits instead of flipping the puck out, if he gets a chance at easy bottom pair minutes, to be good enough at it to carry Marincin on that issue.

This pair would also set up the rest of the dcore nicely by having our 3rd pair be our 1st PK unit with Marincin being a beastly PKer, and then gives us more minutes of Rielly on PP/ES instead of PK. It also allows the ES pairs to shape up as Rielly-Dermott (who was our 3rd best D and needs a bigger role than bottom pair) and then a proven to work pair of Gardiner-Hainsey.

I can definitely see Dubas forcing Babcock to give Marincin another shot. What would your bottom pair be next season? And if anyone knows where the stats are that show Marincin-Zaitsev worked great as a D-pair it would be great if you linked it in here.


I'll bite & say that I want to agree with you:

LEFT HAND DEFENSE:

Morgan Rielly
Jake Gardiner (hopefully traded)
Calvin DeHaan (hopefully signed)
Ron Hainsey
Travis Dermott
Andreas Borgman
Calle Rosen
Andrew Nielsen
Martin Marincin
Fedor Gordeev
Keatin Middleton
James Greenway

Are you suggesting that Marincin leapfrogs six left d-men to play with Zaitsev?
 

MR4

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Oct 20, 2014
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Can't believe there is talk about Marincin returning . Good for him he played well in the AHL, but it's a different league.
Leafs have enough LHD to who have growth potential without Marincin.
Don't understand the nonsense....that he can play 3rd pairings. Even 3rd pairings play 14 minutes a night and usually at even strength. So even your 3rd pairing will be exposed unless they are NHL good.
Not nonsense when he has a Corsi rel of 2+ and Gf% of 2+, meaning not only are we positive in shot and goal differential when he's on the ice, he's has a positive impact.

Also he's a PK beast, Babcock has said he's probably the best PKer on this team. So work him like a horse for 3 min PK/game, and let him lineup against 3rd/4th lines that he can handle.
Did Marincin even have good advanced stats in his time with the Leafs? I knew that was the case when we acquired him, but I don't know if that continued here.

The guy's problem is that he's a nervous wreck when he plays in the NHL. I don't think there's a stat for that. Maybe he has that confidence now.
He did.. check out the #s above. Even if he's making some big mistakes, like Gardiner you can make a ton of less noticed good plays that outweigh the visible bad play.
Polak does more than you "advanced stats loving, forget what you see on the tv" people know or realize. give it up. Those who more than you like Polak more. Who are you to use Corsi against Babcock or Shanahan or Lou?
Lmao no he doesn't. Polak fan club loves saying he's a net creaser when his shot map when he's on the ice shows we get assaulted with shots close to the net when he's on the ice. Polak's a dud, deal with it.
I'll bite & say that I want to agree with you:

LEFT HAND DEFENSE:

Morgan Rielly
Jake Gardiner (hopefully traded)
Calvin DeHaan (hopefully signed)
Ron Hainsey
Travis Dermott
Andreas Borgman
Calle Rosen
Andrew Nielsen
Martin Marincin
Fedor Gordeev
Keatin Middleton
James Greenway

Are you suggesting that Marincin leapfrogs six left d-men to play with Zaitsev?

.. ignoring this randomly assumed acquisition of De Haan, we're left with Rielly/Gardiner/Dermott/Borgman/Rosen/Nielsen/Hainsey in your eyes being ahead of Marincin. I gotta say, I had a good laugh at Nielsen being mentioned, that's all I'll say on him. I believe 2 of Gardiner/Rielly/Dermott/Hainsey should be put on RD with them all in the top 4, leaving Marincin/Rosen/Borgman as choices for the 3rd pair LD. It's a fact that Marincin had a way better AHL season than Borgman, so although I like Borgman's physicality it should be expected that he's in the AHL next year to learn PK and improve, maybe season after he's here. So that leaves Rosen/Marincin for a 50% chance for Marincin, and Marincin fills more of the weaknesses of the dcore than the offensively minded Rosen, so he should play beside Marincin.

Funny how deductive reasoning can bring you to a logical choice ;)
 

LeafingTheWay

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May 31, 2014
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Not nonsense when he has a Corsi rel of 2+ and Gf% of 2+, meaning not only are we positive in shot and goal differential when he's on the ice, he's has a positive impact.

Also he's a PK beast, Babcock has said he's probably the best PKer on this team. So work him like a horse for 3 min PK/game, and let him lineup against 3rd/4th lines that he can handle.

He did.. check out the #s above. Even if he's making some big mistakes, like Gardiner you can make a ton of less noticed good plays that outweigh the visible bad play.

All that was 2 years ago. He's posted underwhelming adv stats the past 2 years and also looked terrible while at it.

The only reason I want to give him the chance to come back for a spot is because he's been amazing for the Marlies and I think some Leaf fans here don't realize how good.
 

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