Player Discussion Marcus Foligno

[Bazeek]

His points per game, even strength primary points per 60 and all situations primary points per 60 all put him well outside the top 270 forwards.

He's been relatively healthy, and half his points are secondary assists (closer to 1/3rd is normal).

He's a 4th liner.

So he's leeching secondary assists off linemates? Fair enough.

 

[Wabit]

His points per game, even strength primary points per 60 and all situations primary points per 60 all put him well outside the top 270 forwards.

He's been relatively healthy, and half his points are secondary assists (closer to 1/3rd is normal).

He's a 4th liner.

Actually it is is an even split (6 each) for his A1 and A2. Almost the entire Wild FWD group (Staal and Zucker are the outliers) are within 2 assists between their A1 and A2. Foligno has 6 of his 16p as A2's (.375), so pretty close to the 1/3 mark.

Rankings for FWDs (NHL.com stats), filter of 1 game played.
- 1.80 p/60: 218th (tied)
- 16p: 230th (tied)
-14 even strength points: 214th (tied)
- 533 mins ToI: 289th
- 512 mins ToI (even strength): 242nd

Last year the FWD cutoff numbers (respectively) were 20g. 29a, 50p (90); 14g, 18a, 32p (180); 8g, 11a, 19p (270); 4g, 5a, 9p (360). I don't agree that total points should be the definitive of what line player someone is (Pommer was a 2nd liner by these standards last year), but they are a decent reference point.

Foligno is a bottom-6 guy, in play style and in points. His ceiling is a solid 3rd liner and floor a quality 4th line grinder. He's just being paid for his ceiling, not his floor. I wanted him for around Nino's old $2.33m/yr, not ~$500k more; but I don't hate his contract.

 

[57special]

Well said, Wabit. I think Foligno is a mediocre thrid liner, but maybe i have too high of an expectation there. last year we had Poms, Hanzal, and Haula on the third....forgotten who else...mebbe Stewart?

 

[Wabit]

Well said, Wabit. I think Foligno is a mediocre thrid liner, but maybe i have too high of an expectation there. last year we had Poms, Hanzal, and Haula on the third....forgotten who else...mebbe Stewart?

The 3rd line last year was Pommer/Haula (Hanzal) and mostly Parise or Nino. After Yeo got fired the Nino/Haula/Pommer line carried the team for the rest of the season. Those 3rd lines were more of a 2/B line than the standard NHL 3rd line. I think people forget that Haula only had 26p (15g, 11a) last season; Hanzal came in and put up 13p in 20 games. The 8 FWDs ahead of Haula on the team all had at least 40p.

I've really liked the Foligno/Cullen/Winnik 4th line, it's really lower tier 3rd line. It's just too bad that the Coyle line is also a lower tier 3rd line so far this year.

 

[Wabit]

I was poking around hockeyviz and these graphics surprised me.

Cullen and Foligno have ~200 mins together and ~300 mins apart. They are each other's most common linemate on ice.

 

[hirawl]

All I can say is Foligno is a much better player and much more important to this team than a lot of people seem to understand. It's like play without the puck is not part of hockey anymore.

 

[ThatGuy22]

All I can say is Foligno is a much better player and much more important to this team than a lot of people seem to understand. It's like play without the puck is not part of hockey anymore.

Play without the puck is important. You'd be hard pressed to convince me Foligino's play without the puck is so amazing that it makes up for his severe shortcomings when the puck is in his general vicinity, especially for a player getting 3 million for 4 years.

 

[Wabit]

Play without the puck is important. You'd be hard pressed to convince me Foligino's play without the puck is so amazing that it makes up for his severe shortcomings when the puck is in his general vicinity, especially for a player getting 3 million for 4 years.

What are his sever shortcomings? Other than being in a trade that involved Scandella/Pommer.

His s% is low this year 7.5%, but he has a career 11.7% (over the span of almost 400 games). He doesn't have Zucker speed, but he's not Koivu slow either. I don't know if there is an actual stat for this, but he wins about half his puck battles (imo).

He's not an offensive black hole, is about even +/-, doesn't wilt from contact, has a positive CF% rel/FF% rel, isn't riding an insane PDO, plays decent defense. He's 7th in FWD points, 5th in FWD assists on the team (tied with Zucker and ahead of Koivu in even strength assists).

With/without map shows he doesn't drag his teammates down.

Compare that to Colye's map:

 

[Saga of the Elk]

Going to give Coyle a little leeway because he's been playing on a broken bone. But to me, the problem with Foligno isn't his defending, he's an honest player. It's that he does nothing with the puck. He has one more shot on goal than Brodin. He has one more shot attempt than Stewart. That means to me that he is an offensive suck. I realize it's not part of his game to control the puck but his salary suggests some familiarity with it.

If in the playoffs his bull-in-a-china-shop style wins games, I'll eat my words. But if this team doesn't make the playoffs, part of the reason will be giving too much money and term to guys who have very little positive impact on games.

 

[ThatGuy22]

What are his sever shortcomings? Other than being in a trade that involved Scandella/Pommer.

His s% is low this year 7.5%, but he has a career 11.7% (over the span of almost 400 games). He doesn't have Zucker speed, but he's not Koivu slow either. I don't know if there is an actual stat for this, but he wins about half his puck battles (imo).

He's not an offensive black hole, is about even +/-, doesn't wilt from contact, has a positive CF% rel/FF% rel, isn't riding an insane PDO, plays decent defense. He's 7th in FWD points, 5th in FWD assists on the team (tied with Zucker and ahead of Koivu in even strength assists).

With/without map shows he doesn't drag his teammates down.


Compare that to Colye's map:

Again, I'm just saying Foligino is a 4th liner. Foligino is an offensive black hole. He is where Offense goes to die.

He is legitimately good at suppressing shots from the forward position, but he's terrible in the offensive zone.

I would heavily dispute he wins 50/50 of his board battles, and he wrecks basically any cycle attempt our team has going by losing the battle or flat out misplaying the puck and giving it away. Given at minimum two of our top 3 lines work like 75% off the cycle (staal/Coyle and JEE line), he's use less on those lines and completely dries up any offense.

His xGF/60 is 2nd lowest on the team, he's 9th on the team in primary points per 60. Which is in the neighborhood of Koivu, JEE and Ennis, but like you said, His PDO is normal, those three(especially JEE and Koivu) are getting PDO'd to death on the offensive side of the puck.

So again, he's a fine 4th liner and way overpaid. Doesn't belong anywhere near the top 9 where we want players who generate offense.

EDIT: Looks like Peter sees basically the same thing.

 

[Wabit]

Again, I'm just saying Foligino is a 4th liner. Foligino is an offensive black hole. He is where Offense goes to die.

He is legitimately good at suppressing shots from the forward position, but he's terrible in the offensive zone.

I would heavily dispute he wins 50/50 of his board battles, and he wrecks basically any cycle attempt our team has going by losing the battle or flat out misplaying the puck and giving it away. Given at minimum two of our top 3 lines work like 75% off the cycle (staal/Coyle and JEE line), he's use less on those lines and completely dries up any offense.

His xGF/60 is 2nd lowest on the team, he's 9th on the team in primary points per 60. Which is in the neighborhood of Koivu, JEE and Ennis, but like you said, His PDO is normal, those three(especially JEE and Koivu) are getting PDO'd to death on the offensive side of the puck.

So again, he's a fine 4th liner and way overpaid. Doesn't belong anywhere near the top 9 where we want players who generate offense.

EDIT: Looks like Peter sees basically the same thing.

PDO (on ice, even strength):
Koivu: GF: 30, GA: 27, sh%: 8.1, sv%: 91.8, PDO: 99.8
Foligno: GF: 22, GA:22, sh%: 8.5, sv% 91.0. PDO: 99.5
JEE: GF: 14, GA: 13, sh%: 4.9, sv%: 94.9, PDO: 99.8 (that is an elite sv%, Bergeron is only .3 better this year, 92.0 is his career average)
Ennis: GF: 16. GA: 23, sh% 6.3, sv% 92.4, PDO: 98.7 (I think everyone will agree Ennis is the worst defender of the bunch)
Cullen: GF: 16, GA: 23, sh% 8.5. sv% 92.0, PDO: 100.5
Coyle: GF: 24, GA, 20, sh% 8.8%, sv% 92.4, PDO 101.2 (similar 5v5 ToI to Foligno)

Foligno must be the luckiest guy on the team for line changes that boost his GF and sh%.

I don't think Folingo's cycle game is why the 4th line dries up. Cullen not being near the slot (cheating towards the d-zone), and Stewie being dazed and confused play a bigger role. The only reliable outlet is sending the puck back to the point.

 

[ThatGuy22]

PDO (on ice, even strength):
Koivu: GF: 30, GA: 27, sh%: 8.1, sv%: 91.8, PDO: 99.8
Foligno: GF: 22, GA:22, sh%: 8.5, sv% 91.0. PDO: 99.5
JEE: GF: 14, GA: 13, sh%: 4.9, sv%: 94.9, PDO: 99.8 (that is an elite sv%, Bergeron is only .3 better this year, 92.0 is his career average)
Ennis: GF: 16. GA: 23, sh% 6.3, sv% 92.4, PDO: 98.7 (I think everyone will agree Ennis is the worst defender of the bunch)
Cullen: GF: 16, GA: 23, sh% 8.5. sv% 92.0, PDO: 100.5
Coyle: GF: 24, GA, 20, sh% 8.8%, sv% 92.4, PDO 101.2 (similar 5v5 ToI to Foligno)

Foligno must be the luckiest guy on the team for line changes that boost his GF and sh%.

I don't think Folingo's cycle game is why the 4th line dries up. Cullen not being near the slot (cheating towards the d-zone), and Stewie being dazed and confused play a bigger role. The only reliable outlet is sending the puck back to the point.

Not sure where you're looking, but Koivu and JEE's on ice shooting percentage is 6.16 and 4.3 respectively per corsica and NaturalStatTrick, both on the severe low end of things.

I don't care if Foligno can't cycle on the 4th line(beyond the fact that he gets paid more than 4th liners should), I care when he's above the 4th line because he dries up lines that should be scoring.

 

[Wabit]

I mostly use hockeyreference for the basic stats (it's easier for me to read). It uses an even strength filter (which I prefer), not just 5v5. I just tried the even strength filter on NaturalStatTrick and the number line up with what I listed. I'm not trying to fudge/cherry pick things, to make anyone look better or worse. I do apologize for any confusion.

https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/f/foligma01.html

I really like hockeyviz for diagrams. Foligno MIN 1718

 

[ThatGuy22]

I mostly use hockeyreference for the basic stats (it's easier for me to read). It uses an even strength filter (which I prefer), not just 5v5. I just tried the even strength filter on NaturalStatTrick and the number line up with what I listed. I'm not trying to fudge/cherry pick things, to make anyone look better or worse. I do apologize for any confusion.

https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/f/foligma01.html

I really like hockeyviz for diagrams. Foligno MIN 1718

Hockey-Reference and Natural StatTrick must consider empty net and/or 3v3 Even Strength(like NHL.com does). Which is the reason Foligino doesn't have a difference between 5v5 and ES and Koivu has a massive one, Koivu gets played in those situations where lots of scoring happens heavily and Foligno doesn't see the ice.

Corsica has around 6.3% for Koivu on both ES and 5v5.

 

[Wabit]

Hockey-Reference and Natural StatTrick must consider empty net and/or 3v3 Even Strength(like NHL.com does). Which is the reason Foligino doesn't have a difference between 5v5 and ES and Koivu has a massive one, Koivu gets played in those situations where lots of scoring happens heavily and Foligno doesn't see the ice.

Corsica has around 6.3% for Koivu on both ES and 5v5.

I can't stand the corsica site, nothing against it stats, just the website itself. No clue on how any of they rate EN strength, I was wondering that earlier today. I was also wondering how they rate things on a delayed penalty.

Technically a team with 6 skaters is still even strength if the other team has 5 skaters + goalie, both have 6 on the ice.

Totaly off topic, but if a team pulls their goalie in OT and gives up an ENG they forfeit their loser point for the game.

 

[ThatGuy22]

I can't stand the corsica site, nothing against it stats, just the website itself. No clue on how any of they rate EN strength, I was wondering that earlier today. I was also wondering how they rate things on a delayed penalty.

Technically a team with 6 skaters is still even strength if the other team has 5 skaters + goalie, both have 6 on the ice.

Totaly off topic, but if a team pulls their goalie in OT and gives up an ENG they forfeit their loser point for the game.

Ya, Corsica is really buggy. I've thought about reaching out and offering some assistance as a programmer really familiar with the tech he's using. Shouldn't be that many errors/freezing when trying to apply filters.

But on the topic at hand, pulled goalie and 3v3 are both technically ES, but they aren't great representations of 5v5 hockey and are very high event goal event hockey, in limited minutes. Which is why those minutes have such a big impact on Koivu's ES numbers, he's always on the ice there. Foligino probably has like less than 30 seconds in those situations.

 

[Wild11MN]

I personally have liked his game in the playoffs. Anyone agree/disagree with that? The size and physicality certainly matters.

 

[Bazeek]

I personally have liked his game in the playoffs. Anyone agree/disagree with that? The size and physicality certainly matters.

I've liked it. His physicality's been noticeable, and this series is probably just going to get more physical. The 4th line overall has been very good, as well.

 

[SomethingGeneric]

He's been earning his contract recently. Have liked his game since the 4th line was assembled but especially the playoffs.

 

[2Pair]

He's been earning his contract recently. Have liked his game since the 4th line was assembled but especially the playoffs.

He's been very good, but he's never going to earn that contract.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

He's been very good, but he's never going to earn that contract.

What would he have to do?

 

[2Pair]

What would he have to do?

Be good enough to play in the top 9. The best 4th liner in the world isn't worth $3M in a salary cap game.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Be good enough to play in the top 9. The best 4th liner in the world isn't worth $3M in a salary cap game.

Hmm... I’m going to say that ~25 points and a (relatively) clean physical game would get him pretty close.

 

[2Pair]

Hmm... I’m going to say that ~25 points and a (relatively) clean physical game would get him pretty close.

Gonna have to disagree. Winnik is the better player and he's getting league minimum.

 

[57special]

He has upped his game in the playoffs, and is equipped to be one of the few players who can dish it out to the big, bad, Jets. He also has found a spot on this team late in the season on the 4th line. before that I don't think that BB knew where he fit.

He doesn't seem to shrink from hard, physical play, and actually seems to revel in it. Most of our players just seem to endure it.