Marchand/Bergeron/Pastrnak vs Seguin/Benn/Radulov

[wintersej]

Point: 54.66 xGF, +3.85 rel, 1.952 xGA/60, 20 percentile higher qoc than qot
Bergeron: 51.84 xGF%, -1.08 rel, 2.247 xGA/60, 4 percentile higher qoc than qot

@PatriceBergeronFan @BigBadBruins7708 @wintersej

Bergeron had a down year defensively imo but he’s still elite defensively, hopefully he bounces back results-wise next year.

You just used "expected goals" to infer he didn't have great real world results last year. That is not how reality works .

I hope you understand the difference between xGF using aggregate averages of (sketchy) shot data to come up with averages vs real world results.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

You just used "expected goals" to infer he didn't have great real world results last year. That is not how reality works .

I hope you understand the difference between xGF using aggregate averages of (sketchy) shot data to come up with averages vs real world results.

Xgf is based on shots that actually happen and has an actual large sample size to work off of. By your logic here the best metric of two way play is plus-minus.

 

[PB37]

Point: 54.66 xGF, +3.85 rel, 1.952 xGA/60, 20 percentile higher qoc than qot
Bergeron: 51.84 xGF%, -1.08 rel, 2.247 xGA/60, 4 percentile higher qoc than qot

@PatriceBergeronFan @BigBadBruins7708 @wintersej

Bergeron had a down year defensively imo but he’s still elite defensively, hopefully he bounces back results-wise next year.

LMAO, no. Just stop already

 

[VoluntaryDom]

LMAO, no. Just stop already

He is still an elite defensive center but had a down season. Hopefully he can go back to being the best defensive C, as he’s been pushed out of the top 5 Cs by the emergence of Matthews and MacKinnon but can push himself right back there. As for Point, hopefully he can continue to develop into a top flight center at both ends of the ice. I’m sure you remember how good he was against your Bruins.

 

[PB37]

He is still an elite defensive center but had a down season. Hopefully he can go back to being the best defensive C, as he’s been pushed out of the top 5 Cs by the emergence of Matthews and MacKinnon but can push himself right back there. As for Point, hopefully he can continue to develop into a top flight center at both ends of the ice. I’m sure you remember how good he was against your Bruins.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

For clarification I meant the top 5 cs overall, not just defensively. Defensively he’s still easily a top 5 c and arguably the best.

 

[wintersej]

Xgf is based on shots that actually happen and has an actual large sample size to work off of. By your logic here the best metric of two way play is plus-minus.

I'm excited for you to take some stats classes in college .

The inputs are not great. Shot type (by eye test) from shot location (by eye test) is both only mildly accurate and does not take into account whether the shot was clean or challenged or from a screen or whom it was by or anything.

xGF is often hugely off for a whole TEAM over a whole season. Or multiple seasons in aggregate. It's a better predictor of future results than raw +/- sure. But to think there is enough sample size for it all to even out is the same logic that had the stats community arguing for years that shot quality or QoC didn't matter.

There is smart and real math around it all. But the inputs are imperfect.

edit: besides, expected stats are all great, but they don't give out the Cup for expected wins do they?

 

[VoluntaryDom]

I'm excited for you to take some stats classes in college .

The inputs are not great. Shot type (by eye test) from shot location (by eye test) is both only mildly accurate and does not take into account whether the shot was clean or challenged or from a screen or whom it was by or anything.

xGF is often hugely off for a whole TEAM over a whole season. Or multiple seasons in aggregate. It's a better predictor of future results than raw +/- sure. But to think there is enough sample size for it all to even out is the same logic that had the stats community arguing for years that shot quality or QoC didn't matter.

There is smart and real math around it all. But the inputs are imperfect.

edit: besides, expected stats are all great, but they don't give out the Cup for expected wins do they?

Using shot location and type has been shown to be more predictive than Corsi and pretty much every other possession stat (look up Corsica’s write up about xG).

As for your last point, that’s why whoever wins the cup always repeats, and every player who scores a certain amount one year always repeats it, right?

 

[VoluntaryDom]

xG combines the best aspects of chance metrics and total shot attempt metrics by counting all unblocked shots but giving shots from the net and the slot more value.

 

[Kcb12345]

Why is Point being brought up in this thread lol

 

[wintersej]

Using shot location and type has been shown to be more predictive than Corsi and pretty much every other possession stat (look up Corsica’s write up about xG).

As for your last point, that’s why whoever wins the cup always repeats, and every player who scores a certain amount one year always repeats it, right?

Yes, trying to account for shot quality is better than raw Corsi.

No, they don't do a GOOD job of it yet.

It's not their fault, its the NHL not having proper tracking in jerseys and the puck. Heck you probably really want it in the sticks themselves, too. Honestly, once they do, its a field that seems really ripe for AI analysis. What Manny and those other guys are good is AWESOME. But, garbage in... garbage out.

 

[Espresso Martini]

He is still an elite defensive center but had a down season. Hopefully he can go back to being the best defensive C, as he’s been pushed out of the top 5 Cs by the emergence of Matthews and MacKinnon but can push himself right back there. As for Point, hopefully he can continue to develop into a top flight center at both ends of the ice. I’m sure you remember how good he was against your Bruins.

I have to say, I normally enjoy reading your posts but if we are now using one playoff series to judge, just curious how did Point do against Washington? The narrative that Bergeron was completely shut down during the Tampa series really needs to stop, 5 goals 3 assists. Tampa was the better team and clearly showed that but come on ....

 

[VoluntaryDom]

I have to say, I normally enjoy reading your posts but if we are now using one playoff series to judge, just curious how did Point do against Washington? The narrative that Bergeron was completely shut down during the Tampa series really needs to stop, 5 goals 3 assists. Tampa was the better team and clearly showed that but come on ....

Bergeron didn’t do much at 5v5, in fact iirc their forwards didn’t score a 5v5 goal after game 1 or something like that. Point was Tampa’s best forward against the Caps as well.

 

[Trap Jesus]

Why is Point being brought up in this thread lol

Brayden Point is the best line in hockey

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Brayden Point is the best line in hockey

Yep