Marc Bergevin: Offseason Summertime Love Edition

[Milhouse40]

Cap issues are real, if Duchene gets 10 mill per year from the habs. Throwing out strawman arguments like "going bankrupt" has nothing to do with cap management as any team on the brink of bankruptcy will have internal budgets anyways. Habs have 10.7 mill in free space for next season before signing Duchene. He doesnt put them over the hump without addressing the LHD situation or the back up goaltending. The next season (2020-21) the habs have 15-18 mill in space if they sign Duchene and will have to re-sign Domi, depth players and depth Dmen. Still not addressing the LHD situation and looking at what players are getting paid this year, Domi will get a substantial raise. Then the year after that (2021-22) you need to either re-sign or replace Tatar, Gallagher, Danault, Petry.

Alzner isnt going anywhere for 3 more years, shedding players for salary is an option but doesnt make you a better team and kind of defeats the purpose of trying to contend. Bolstering a contender sure load up and shed, a team that has missed the play offs 3 out of the past 4 years, makes no sense. Then you have the risk that Duchene comes in and only puts up 50-60 points.

The 10.7M is calculating players that won't be there in the end.
If Bergevin buyout Alzner, and wants to add 1 player in the UFA
He's having more like 15.6M to complete his team this summer.
If he don't buyout Alzner it's more like 13.2m

 

[Perrah]

Those are just excuses.

Your mistake is that you think their situation is static. Caps need to be managed at least if a team wishes to be competitive.

Alzner can be bought out, older players traded or not signed when replaced by younger players, not to mention the cap continually rises.

So you are forced to replace top 6 and top 4 dmen with young guys and you think that is a move to be a better team?

I factored a cap rise estimate to the 2020-21 season cap availability. Cap only going up 4 mill this year, they have 23 million available for 2020-21. Take 10 off of that for the theoretical Duchene deal how much does that leave you with? I said the players are becoming fed up with escrow which is a result of them using an escalator clause in the CBA vs using the actual revenue to determine the cap. That was in a separate post though.

Buying Alzner out results in only 400K in savings 2020-21 if he is bought out this year. You save more money sending him down and then he only has a year left. Problem is you have to be cap compliant at the start of the season so neither option really helps until the season starts.

But sure, I never thought about those things one bit. Just static thoughts.

 

[Perrah]

The 10.7M is calculating players that won't be there in the end.
If Bergevin buyout Alzner, and wants to add 1 player in the UFA
He's having more like 15.6M to complete his team this summer.
If he don't buyout Alzner it's more like 13.2m

They havent re-signed Lehkonen or Armia. They have 1 extra forward on the roster which for this take we will say is a million dollars. Buying alzner out saves you money this year and costs you money the next, compared to if he is just jetted off to the AHL.

 

[Milhouse40]

They havent re-signed Lehkonen or Armia. They have 1 extra forward on the roster which for this take we will say is a million dollars. Buying alzner out saves you money this year and costs you money the next, compared to if he is just jetted off to the AHL.

They have 23 contract, the maximum, so everytime you add one, you have to put one in minor.
So Armia/Lehkonen/1 UFA will give pretty much around 3 millions.

Buying out Alzner gives 2,5M of more cap space this year and will cost 500K more next year.

 

[Kriss E]

I agree. Alzner takes away any flexibility to address both needs realistically until he is gone. Especially since the cap is lower than expected this year and the players are hating the escrow system.

I dont think Alzner takes away flexibility, there is always a way to make room.
You can sell your dead wood to cap flooring teams with an incentive, usually in the form of a pick/prospect. Not ideal but still doable.
We are a cap ceiling team with a rich owner..we should be way more aggressive when chasing stars nickel and diming Radu/Markov because we are scarred they might be signed 1-2 years too long or 1M over their worth...its completely ridiculous.
Instead we try to be conservative and take chances on the Alzner or Semin or Kassian or Sekac or Flash...etc..
We should be one of the most aggressive and active teams on open market, not be worrying about overpaying a couple millions.
We are rich, we can take the gamble. If it doesnt work, then we have explorable avenues to rectify the situation. But then, that would mean having a creative GM who likes actually working.
We have a moron who honestly seems to enjoy the prestige but not the actual job.

 

[Perrah]

They have 23 contract, the maximum, so everytime you add one, you have to put one in minor.
So Armia/Lehkonen/1 UFA will give pretty much around 3 millions.

Buying out Alzner gives 2,5M of more cap space this year and will cost 500K more next year.

Yes I know this, which is why signing a guy who might only put up 60 points to a long term deal at 9-10 million, neglecting the LHD makes 0 sense to do at this time.

Armia and Lehkonen will make more than the contract that gets sent to the AHL which only gives you less to work with cap wise and only furthers my point on cap problems for a team that wouldnt be a contender.

 

[Perrah]

I dont think Alzner takes away flexibility, there is always a way to make room.
You can sell your dead wood to cap flooring teams with an incentive, usually in the form of a pick/prospect. Not ideal but still doable.
We are a cap ceiling team with a rich owner..we should be way more aggressive when chasing stars nickel and diming Radu/Markov because we are scarred they might be signed 1-2 years too long or 1M over their worth...its completely ridiculous.
Instead we try to be conservative and take chances on the Alzner or Semin or Kassian or Sekac or Flash...etc..
We should be one of the most aggressive and active teams on open market, not be worrying about overpaying a couple millions.
We are rich, we can take the gamble. If it doesnt work, then we have explorable avenues to rectify the situation. But then, that would mean having a creative GM who likes actually working.
We have a moron who honestly seems to enjoy the prestige but not the actual job.

Timing is everything for me. Alzner wasnt even taking a chance, he was their target that is the worst of it. The prospect pool is finally shaping up and having to take from it to get rid of deadwood when you arent a contender is just crazy to me. I am not saying dont sign players, I am saying dont sign Duchene for 9-10 mill.

Edit: This is why I hate the position the Habs are in. They arent good enough to go for it, not bad enough to stock up and sell. By the time the young guys are coming in you have to start thinking about how to replace Weber and Petry. It is just a shit situation all around IMO in regards to becoming a contender. Could be some surprises to come but I dont like to count on that.

 

[Sterling Archer]

So you are forced to replace top 6 and top 4 dmen with young guys and you think that is a move to be a better team?

I factored a cap rise estimate to the 2020-21 season cap availability. Cap only going up 4 mill this year, they have 23 million available for 2020-21. Take 10 off of that for the theoretical Duchene deal how much does that leave you with? I said the players are becoming fed up with escrow which is a result of them using an escalator clause in the CBA vs using the actual revenue to determine the cap. That was in a separate post though.

Buying Alzner out results in only 400K in savings 2020-21 if he is bought out this year. You save more money sending him down and then he only has a year left. Problem is you have to be cap compliant at the start of the season so neither option really helps until the season starts.

But sure, I never thought about those things one bit. Just static thoughts.

Just to be sure. Are you arguing the Montreal Canadiens should not be a cap team?

 

[waffledave]

Timing is everything for me. Alzner wasnt even taking a chance, he was their target that is the worst of it. The prospect pool is finally shaping up and having to take from it to get rid of deadwood when you arent a contender is just crazy to me. I am not saying dont sign players, I am saying dont sign Duchene for 9-10 mill.

Edit: This is why I hate the position the Habs are in. They arent good enough to go for it, not bad enough to stock up and sell. By the time the young guys are coming in you have to start thinking about how to replace Weber and Petry. It is just a **** situation all around IMO in regards to becoming a contender. Could be some surprises to come but I dont like to count on that.

That's why this retool/reset is so stupid. It's not a plan and it makes no sense. You have 3 separate cores on this team, none of which is good enough to build the team around.

Price-Weber-Petry have maybe 2-3 GOOD years left before they start to nosedive.
Gallagher-Domi-Tatar will need new contracts soon, and they are just entering their prime years now.
KK-Suzuki-Poehling are still 3-5 years away from being main pieces (perhaps less for KK).

The problem is that contracts and prime years do not line up for any of these players. Weber and Price are win now kind of guys and they play huge roles on the team, with contracts that will hurt us later on. But they don't have the supporting cast to win now, cause it's going to be a few years before those players are ready to go.

 

[Perrah]

Just to be sure. Are you arguing the Montreal Canadiens should not be a cap team?

No I am saying putting yourself into cap troubles for the upcoming 3-5 years to sign Matt Duchene when you arent a contender isnt a smart thing to do.

 

[SnapVirus]

Last time we signed prime ufas was gionta/cammalleri/gomez. Radulov was nice, but only 3 teamrs were after him. No one wants to play here. If Duchene wants to, we should try.

 

[Kriss E]

Timing is everything for me. Alzner wasnt even taking a chance, he was their target that is the worst of it. The prospect pool is finally shaping up and having to take from it to get rid of deadwood when you arent a contender is just crazy to me. I am not saying dont sign players, I am saying dont sign Duchene for 9-10 mill.

Edit: This is why I hate the position the Habs are in. They arent good enough to go for it, not bad enough to stock up and sell. By the time the young guys are coming in you have to start thinking about how to replace Weber and Petry. It is just a **** situation all around IMO in regards to becoming a contender. Could be some surprises to come but I dont like to count on that.

Well, of course it's crazy to take from the prospect pool if you are thinking guys like Poehling or Brook, but nobody gives up this much to give away dead wood. We are talking low end prospects or mid-low picks. Bare in mind, this is only if it actually comes to that.
I'm not a big fan of Duchene in general, so I have no problem passing on him, but I do want Panarin and I'm all for opening the vault to him.
Back to Duchene though....I don't think it's that bad if we have Duchene at 9M playing like a 7M guy. The problem is more when you pay someone more when he absolutely sucks.

 

[Milhouse40]

That's why this retool/reset is so stupid. It's not a plan and it makes no sense. You have 3 separate cores on this team, none of which is good enough to build the team around.

Price-Weber-Petry have maybe 2-3 GOOD years left before they start to nosedive.
Gallagher-Domi-Tatar will need new contracts soon, and they are just entering their prime years now.
KK-Suzuki-Poehling are still 3-5 years away from being main pieces (perhaps less for KK).

The problem is that contracts and prime years do not line up for any of these players. Weber and Price are win now kind of guys and they play huge roles on the team, with contracts that will hurt us later on. But they don't have the supporting cast to win now, cause it's going to be a few years before those players are ready to go.

As you say, Price - Weber have 2-3 good years.
Gallagher, Danault, Tatar, Petry, Kotkaniemi all need new contract in 2 years

I guess we should focus a lot more on the next 2 years, cause everything is up in the air after that.

 

[Sterling Archer]

No I am saying putting yourself into cap troubles for the upcoming 3-5 years to sign Matt Duchene when you arent a contender isnt a smart thing to do.

Who's arguing that? Where did I say that exactly?

Maybe you should try reading a post for what it is and not what you want it to be. Makes for a more enjoyable experience for everyone...

 

[waffledave]

As you say, Price - Weber have 2-3 good years.
Gallagher, Danault, Tatar, Petry, Kotkaniemi all need new contract in 2 years

I guess we should focus a lot more on the next 2 years, cause everything is up in the air after that.

That's what makes the most sense based on where these guys are at but it doesn't work with a reset/retool and you need to be willing to make some major win-now moves which Bergevin has said he isn't willing to do.

 

[Perrah]

Well, of course it's crazy to take from the prospect pool if you are thinking guys like Poehling or Brook, but nobody gives up this much to give away dead wood. We are talking low end prospects or mid-low picks. Bare in mind, this is only if it actually comes to that.
I'm not a big fan of Duchene in general, so I have no problem passing on him, but I do want Panarin and I'm all for opening the vault to him.
Back to Duchene though....I don't think it's that bad if we have Duchene at 9M playing like a 7M guy. The problem is more when you pay someone more when he absolutely sucks.

Hawks had to give Teravainen to be rid of Bickell. I would also spend on Panarin.

 

[Perrah]

Who's arguing that? Where did I say that exactly?

Maybe you should try reading a post for what it is and not what you want it to be. Makes for a more enjoyable experience for everyone...

You said worrying about the cap is idiotic, I did make an assumption on Duchene but lets use that as the example. I still disagree that worrying about the cap is idiotic because it is a smart thing to do especially with young players coming up for raises in the future with a non contending team and holes on the LHD. Those figures I stated didnt include potential ELC bonuses that could be attained.

If they spend money on a good LHD or Panarin I am all for it. LHD market pretty slim now.

 

[Sterling Archer]

You said worrying about the cap is idiotic, I did make an assumption on Duchene but lets use that as the example. I still disagree that worrying about the cap is idiotic because it is a smart thing to do especially with young players coming up for raises in the future with a non contending team and holes on the LHD. Those figures I stated didnt include potential ELC bonuses that could be attained.

If they spend money on a good LHD or Panarin I am all for it. LHD market pretty slim now.

So you took what I said, distorted it to fit your narrative and sent several posts blasting me for now sharing your point of view. Then you say you say despite that fact, you still stand by your point and then go on to contradict it in the very next paragraph.

You do realize how that makes you look, right?

 

[the valiant effort]

It's nice to acquire assets without giving any up, but the time to strike on Duchene was 4 years ago when the Avalanche started to fall apart, and it was still conceivable that Duchene could be a consistent near-ppg threat. Whether the team had the assets to acquire him 4 years ago is another debate, but as a UFA this year Duchene simply doesn't show the consistency game-to-game that you want from the team's highest paid skater.

In this UFA class it's Panarin or bust.

 

[waffledave]

Hawks had to give Teravainen to be rid of Bickell. I would also spend on Panarin.

See these are the kinds of deal MB should have been making when he had no ideas what to do with all that cap space.

I know everyone loves to tout the great Armia and MB's stroke of genius to get him but with a little creativity there are 70+ pt young centers available out there. Instead of 20 pt 3rd liners.

 

[Perrah]

So you took what I said, distorted it to fit your narrative and sent several posts blasting me for now sharing your point of view. Then you say you say despite that fact, you still stand by your point and then go on to contradict it in the very next paragraph.

You do realize how that makes you look, right?

Blasted? Lol, that was hardly blasting IMO. Seems like discussion to me, and the point of the discussion remained the same about cap trouble, and you saying worrying about it was idiotic is it not?

Some players worth the worries, as are filling needs. Doesnt change my view that worrying about the cap isnt idiotic.

 

[Kriss E]

Hawks had to give Teravainen to be rid of Bickell. I would also spend on Panarin.

They didn't have to do that trade though. They had to make room because they stupidly wanted to extend Seabrook to an 8 year deal close to 7M per. That was bad.
I also think they should have done the unpopular move and traded Toews before.

 

[Sterling Archer]

Blasted? Lol, that was hardly blasting IMO. Seems like discussion to me, and the point of the discussion remained the same about cap trouble, and you saying worrying about it was idiotic is it not?

Some players worth the worries, as are filling needs. Doesnt change my view that worrying about the cap isnt idiotic.

You can keep "discussing" it but with yourself.

 

[Sorinth]

And again….same were said exactly one year ago when we were talking about getting O'reilly:
- Just a 55-60 points center
- Won't move the needle
- Not a real first line center
- Good but not elite

Having said that, in the last 4 seasons he average, was on pace to 28 goals per season.
30 goals scorer twice in the last 4 years.

Which is why it all comes down to what are the odds you get the 70 point player or not.

If you believe the odds are good then it makes perfect sense to go after him even if you have to overpay. If the odds aren't good then it would be a big mistake.

 

[Tighthead]

They just said on 690 that Benn is headed to free agency.