Confirmed with Link: Maple Leafs re-sign Nikita Zaitsev for 7 years, $4.5M per

[Zybalto]

I disagree. Even the advanced stats point to a style change where possession was a secondary consideration
CF% dropped considerably
His blocked shot went up considerably per game
Shots attempted went way down per game
Defensive zone starts went from 52.3 to 61.9.

Either his injury was limiting his mobility in the 60 games he played or Babcock is trying to change the nature of his game to be more defensive, of which he is failing. This could be a short term development move to more quickly adapt him to smaller ice after a lifetime on the big ice...I don't know.
We will see next year. What is clear is that he has to be a top 4 D to justify his salary on this team.

The problem as I keep seeing it is that everyone keeps clumping his whole season together and then ignoring his playoffs and WHC.

First 45 games of the season, he was all the bad many are saying he was. His last 15, he had turned most of his poor underlying stats around and was earning his money and in the playoffs, he had borderline elite analytics. He then continued to tear it up at the Worlds.

I think theres an argument to be made that he should be deployed in a more offensive role but I'm fine with his current place in the system as long a he continues his strong play from the end of the season.

 

[I Believe]

He's had more good games then bad.

He comes into the season healthy and I think he'll rebound.

 

[1specter]

Obviously it depends on someone's personality, but if he's a worrier (like me) the first year of having a child can be pretty nerve-wracking as well. I know I worried a ton for both my daughter and my wife; I still do, but especially that first year. We also don't know the personal side of these players lives. Maybe his child was sick alot, maybe his wife had post-partum, etc. Hockey players are still human and still feel stresses at home.

Im not penciling him into the top pair or anything, but I definitely think he has a good chance to improve this upcoming season with both his health being better and child being a year older.

Zaitsev definitely has some psychological issues. I've read some of his interviews and he seems to overanalyze / be very, very hard on himself, and he's a super serious guy. I think seeing a sports psychologist would benefit him a lot to be honest.

He's also got great natural abilities, he's a great skater and has a nice shot, and can pass the puck well when he chooses to. Problem is, he seems to be afraid to play that way and defers back to safe plays like dumping off the glass and out or passing it off to his partner, which is often Gardiner as Gardiner is more of the puck carrier / passer on the pairing.

 

[1specter]

The problem as I keep seeing it is that everyone keeps clumping his whole season together and then ignoring his playoffs and WHC.

First 45 games of the season, he was all the bad many are saying he was. His last 15, he had turned most of his poor underlying stats around and was earning his money and in the playoffs, he had borderline elite analytics. He then continued to tear it up at the Worlds.

I think theres an argument to be made that he should be deployed in a more offensive role but I'm fine with his current place in the system as long a he continues his strong play from the end of the season.

He was actually pretty good in the first 10 games or so of the season, he was carrying the puck a lot more and making some nice rushes and passes. Then Babcock changed the way the Leafs played and that impacted him negatively as well as he reverted back to a 'safe' style of play.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I think it is pretty clear that Zaistev is being asked to play a role he isn't comfortable with.

He is not a defensive stay at home defender and he is being asked to play as one.

If Z played with Hainsey I would wager we would see him play a very different style of game.

I also think Zaitsev may be the Leafs 'toughest' defenseman so I wouldn't want to make the Leafs even softer by dealing him. The battles against Ovie in the playoffs and during the regular season show how strong Z is.

 

[Zybalto]

He was actually pretty good in the first 10 games or so of the season, he was carrying the puck a lot more and making some nice rushes and passes. Then Babcock changed the way the Leafs played and that impacted him negatively as well as he reverted back to a 'safe' style of play.

His possession numbers wernt great even early on but you are right in that he was creating a ton of good chances and had decent SCF% numbers. There was a bit of pond hockey going on the first month though and Zaitsev's worst stretch from early November to when he finally got over his injury in mid Feb. were brutal. It was a combination of bad possession and bad scoring chance differential that went along with a high PDO to mask his issues. Actually probably only a 30 game stretch of awful play but I hope hes over it and we can land another RHD to solidify the core this year.

 

[Sypher04]

I disagree. Even the advanced stats point to a style change where possession was a secondary consideration
CF% dropped considerably
His blocked shot went up considerably per game
Shots attempted went way down per game
Defensive zone starts went from 52.3 to 61.9.

Either his injury was limiting his mobility in the 60 games he played or Babcock is trying to change the nature of his game to be more defensive, of which he is failing. This could be a short term development move to more quickly adapt him to smaller ice after a lifetime on the big ice...I don't know.
We will see next year. What is clear is that he has to be a top 4 D to justify his salary on this team.

I've noted this as well. I hadn't looked up numbers, but it was plainly obvious watching that Babcock changed his usage quite a bit and as I have said previously I believe he is being miscast. He needs to be allowed to play more to his strengths which are offensive. I've been a proponent of the idea of seeing what he could do as the puck carrier of his pairing, but the problem right now is that we don't have the right LD to do that as Rielly, Gardiner and Dermott all are puck carriers themselves.

 

[IBeL34f]

I've noted this as well. I hadn't looked up numbers, but it was plainly obvious watching that Babcock changed his usage quite a bit and as I have said previously I believe he is being miscast. He needs to be allowed to play more to his strengths which are offensive. I've been a proponent of the idea of seeing what he could do as the puck carrier of his pairing, but the problem right now is that we don't have the right LD to do that as Rielly, Gardiner and Dermott all are puck carriers themselves.

Apparently Zaitsev's breakout numbers aren't actually all that strong, so - while he is more offensive-minded than Babcock's usage of him this season would indicate - it might not necessarily be the wisest move to rely on him as a puck carrier. A player like Dermott, who is a poised puck carrier, but who has solid defensive tendencies overall, could be a perfect partner for Zaitsev.

 

[Menzinger]

Lol.
His NTC doesn't kick in until after this season, and even then it is only a 10 team no trade list. People here are acting like it is a full NMC.
He had a lot to deal with last season, and people here have turned on him pretty hard after a good 1st season. I think he is more likely to return to his 2016-17 form than his 2017-18. He also had some of the toughest usage in the league.
He also had no PP time last year and had 2nd PP unit time the year before.
Lets give the guy a chance.

He was bad last season, and overrated in his first (reliant on the pp for most of his points). It’s not like he has this great track record to fall back on.The Leafs don’t NEED him for the PP either, he’s certainly not taking time away from Rielly.

Folks are acting like he’s a near rookie, but he’s 26 and thats the middle of a player’s prime. I just don’t know why there’s so much faith in him rebounding, when I’d say there’s more evidence to the contrary

 

[Morbo]

wouldn't be surprised if Dubas moved him

 

[IBeL34f]

He was bad last season, and overrated in his first (reliant on the pp for most of his points). It’s not like he has this great track record to fall back on.The Leafs don’t NEED him for the PP either, he’s certainly not taking time away from Rielly.

Folks are acting like he’s a near rookie, but he’s 26 and thats the middle of a player’s prime. I just don’t know why there’s so much fair in him rebounding, when I’d say there’s more evidence to the contrary

He's already rebounded. I wish I could find the link right now, but I was reading earlier that basically from March 1st onward, Zaitsev had been playing some of the best hockey of his NHL career, eventually leading into what was (apparently - I must admit, I didn't watch) a very successful World Championship for him.

A concussion, a broken foot, a brutal flu, and a newborn baby, all in less than 1 full year - I'm not really sure how anyone could possibly believe that his play during that stretch was a reflection of his best possible work.

 

[6ix]

He has to prove he’s worth that contract this year or he’s gone in the expansion draft/traded.

 

[Maple Leaf]

should listen to don cherry

 

[IBeL34f]

 

[The_Chosen_One]

Apparently Zaitsev's breakout numbers aren't actually all that strong, so - while he is more offensive-minded than Babcock's usage of him this season would indicate - it might not necessarily be the wisest move to rely on him as a puck carrier. A player like Dermott, who is a poised puck carrier, but who has solid defensive tendencies overall, could be a perfect partner for Zaitsev.

That's how I see it. I don't Zaitsev is a great puck rusher and depends a lot more on his passing. He's the polar opposite of Gardiner ( or even Rielly for that matter) while Dermott is somewhere in the middle.

Babcock's ideal is tighter, possession-oriented team with short, controlled passing. Unless you're Chris Pronger or Brian Rafalksi, long puck moving passing isn't acceptable and that's actually why Zaitsev need a bridge. Utilize that shot and limit passing to critical scoring zones while Dermott is guy on the transition.

 

[LeafShark]

Pair Rielly and Gardiner and give them 23 minutes a night to start the season.

Pair Hainsey and Zaitsev and give them 20 minutes a night to start the season.

Pair Dermott and Carrick and give them 17 minutes a night to start the season.

Make Dlines 2 and 3 compete for ice time directly and observe dline 1 to see if any adjustments are needed. It is a contract year for Gardiner so if he wants top Dman pay, he better be able to play with the best. In a sense, he would be competing directly with Rielly.

Until there is more statistical evidence that Zaitsev does not fill a top 4 role, he has to start there.

It might not technically be the best that could be iced to start the season, but it would be the best way to compare/contrast talents to evaluate the players as the season goes on.

 

[Maple Leaf]

switch dermott and gardiner and throw zaitsev on the island and you got a deal

 

[lovemyleafs]

He's looked really good this pre-season! Hope he keeps it up during the regular season.

 

[Phion Keneuf]

Definitely expecting a bounce back season.

Looking great so far in preseason.

 

[Ratboy]

its almost like, the sophmore slump kind of exists. and injuries screw stuff up too

everyone who wrote him off last year, you were wrong!

 

[Critical13]

its almost like, the sophmore slump kind of exists. and injuries screw stuff up too

everyone who wrote him off last year, you were wrong!

You're right, 2 preseason games against the two worst teams in the NHL definitely show that...

 

[Ratboy]

You're right, 2 preseason games against the two worst teams in the NHL definitely show that...

JUST. WAIT.

 

[mapleleaf979]

Zaitsev imo still looks shaky. Like bottom pairing level dman. Man I hope he can turn it around. Gardiner 4.05 million, Reilly 5 million, Zaitsev 4.5 million. He should be at 2 million. No one would take that contract.

 

[A1LeafNation]

He looks good

 

[Clark4Ever]

Zaitsev imo still looks shaky. Like bottom pairing level dman. Man I hope he can turn it around. Gardiner 4.05 million, Reilly 5 million, Zaitsev 4.5 million. He should be at 2 million. No one would take that contract.

If he continues to improve and get back his pre-injury form, his contract will be just fine.