Confirmed with Link: Maple Leafs re-sign Nikita Zaitsev for 7 years, $4.5M per

[rent free]

Zaitsev Yr 1: -22
Zaitsev Yr 2: +8

in which year did he play better?

He wasn't even that good in year 1

 

[luvdahattymatty]

I leave it up to you young people to figure it all out. You are all far brighter than me who failed grade 10 math. All i was pointing out was Rielly has played on many different teams from junior through pro and it is same old story every year consistently. Again we can all argue about why his +/- is at the bottom or very near it for every single team in every single year he has played. That is a very telling stat when it is consistent year over year. Again it points out a bigger picture flaw. It is not about his junior team or his Marlie team or any of his Leaf teams. It is just a fact. I have my own thoughts. You have yours. But to outright dismiss it because you deem it a bad stat it kinda weird when it has been used in pro hockey from at least the 40s . If it was just for last year or maybe his first year junior and every other year it was at team norm then i would dismiss too. Anyhoo off to drive to Pennsylvania to watch our Marlies play. See ya in a few days.

 

[Nithoniniel]

But to outright dismiss it because you deem it a bad stat

Just to clarify, I don't dismiss what you said. Rielly is not very good defensively. His outright defensive numbers are not very good no matter what metric you use, even with context in mind. Rielly has been good because he can help us drive more offense than the opposition when he's on the ice.

My issue was with +/- as a stat.

Anyhoo off to drive to Pennsylvania to watch our Marlies play. See ya in a few days.

Have fun!

 

[Trapper]

Yeah, but there's a difference there. Possession is a very distinct stat. It measures shot attempts at even strength only. Save percentage is a very distinct stat. It measure the percentage of shots that a goaltender saves only. They have a specific thing they measure, which frees them up to be used just as the quote from you below.

Plus/Minus is more like a WAR-stat. I think a key here is this quote from you:

This is how you want stats to be. Let's go back to save percentage. If you judge a goaltender, you start with save percentage. That's one piece. Now you have that basis and nothing else. It's clear what you have and what you don't. Then you look at effects on that from quality of shots. You go on to look at how many good starts the goaltender offer. You might even want to look at something like the timeliness, though I wouldn't myself.

But let's say you want to do that with a player. You start with Plus/Minus. But you can't add what they do on the PP, because +/- already has taken part of that into account. You can't add PK measurements, because +/- has already stolen a part of that. You can't adjust it for QoC or zone starts, because that would impact parts of the number that these factors doesn't touch. Same with linemates. I don't even know how you'd smoothly adjust for all the empty net goals.

You touch on something perfectly, and that is that stats need to have a clear purpose so they can fit very well to "bang one piece in". But you underestimate how unclear that purpose is when it comes to +/-.

Basically, you bash in a piece that says "This ONE number is a measurement of how this players team has done at even strength with him on the ice, plus how many times his team screwed up on the PP with him on the ice, as well as how many times someone stole the puck and went the other way while shorthanded, but also including all the times that he was on the ice as the team desperately tried to equalize but ended up conceiving an empty netter instead. All of it together."

That's a quite big and deformed piece to fit in.

Well now you've given me new things to think about.
I certainly wouldn't use it to say player A is > player B.
I'm still not going to dismiss it entirely. Even if it's just a warning sign of greater, more in-depth things to investigate.
What a day, first I find out the world isn't flat and now this.

 

[egd27]

He is an NHL quality D man, he just didn't earn a 7 year deal. That should be reserved for upper tier guys, which thus far he has not proven he is.

Good thing they didn't keep the GM that signed that contract another year as you have been advocating in another thread.

 

[Advanced stats]

If I'm ever wrong about anything hockey related, I'll be happy to admit it. If for no other reason than to change things up a little.

Do you still think Morgan Rielly is a 3/4 defenseman?

 

[Advanced stats]

So he can't handle high quality of completion? He can't be a number 1 then.

Brent burns, John Carlson, Erik Karlsson, Kris Letang, Shea Weber, Duncan Keith, and many more are all minus players(most worst than Rielly) .....their clearly not number 1 defensemen?


What a ridiculous comment that Morgan Rielly can't handle the competition.

 

[rent free]

Brent burns, John Carlson, Erik Karlsson, Kris Letang, Shea Weber, Duncan Keith, and many more are all minus players(most worst than Rielly) .....their clearly not number 1 defensemen?


What a ridiculous comment that Morgan Rielly can't handle the competition.

He clearly can't handle top competition if he can't really shutdown the opposition. More than half of the defenders you listed are defensively inept and are sure as hell are better than Reilly.

 

[Advanced stats]

He clearly can't handle top competition if he can't really shutdown the opposition. More than half of the defenders you listed are defensively inept and are sure as hell are better than Reilly.

Definitely not based on +/- which seems to be the premise you werew operating on.

 

[rent free]

Definitely not based on +/- which seems to be the premise you werew operating on.

That's not the premise I was operating on. That stat supports my point though that he isn't a good shutdown dman

 

[Born and Raised]

Something tells me this "record that speaks for itself" doesn't contain his losses. Just like the other blow hard he compared himself to.

HFBoards' own Charlie Zelenoff?

 

[Menzinger]

Good thing they didn't keep the GM that signed that contract another year as you have been advocating in another thread.

Nice point lol

 

[The CyNick]

Good thing they didn't keep the GM that signed that contract another year as you have been advocating in another thread.

I never said Lou was perfect. I just liked having him and Hunter vs having none.

Plus isn't the narrative on the other side that Dubas was in on all decisions? So either he's contributing to success and failure or he's not.

 

[Oiffub]

year 3 will be a good one for him I can feel it in muh bones

 

[Sypher04]

Babcock needs to allow Zaitsev to play to his strengths. Also I think he needs to be paired with someone more two-way than Gardiner to maximize his abilities. It's funny, we're really looking for that defensive balancing with all 3 of our primary guys. Rielly, Gardiner, & Zaitsev are all better when they are allowed to be the one who generates... not as support for their partner. That doesn't mean I think we need defensive defenseman specifically, but we do need people who are at least above average defenders with skating and some degree of puck skills.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Here's hoping he has a comeback year !

 

[rent free]

i think he will rebound back to a decent defender

 

[johnny_rudeboy]

Babcock needs to allow Zaitsev to play to his strengths

Babcock does not really allow anyone to play to their strength. And it was really the same when he coached Team Canada. He is all about the collective and making sure guys play the roles he want them to play so his collective works.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Babcock does not really allow anyone to play to their strength. And it was really the same when he coached Team Canada. He is all about the collective and making sure guys play the roles he want them to play so his collective works.

It was a damn machine of a collective though.

 

[A1LeafNation]

I think he will prove a lot of doubters wrong this year..

 

[Daisy Jane]

It was a damn machine of a collective though.

won gold. not complainin'.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

Babcock needs to allow Zaitsev to play to his strengths. Also I think he needs to be paired with someone more two-way than Gardiner to maximize his abilities. It's funny, we're really looking for that defensive balancing with all 3 of our primary guys. Rielly, Gardiner, & Zaitsev are all better when they are allowed to be the one who generates... not as support for their partner. That doesn't mean I think we need defensive defenseman specifically, but we do need people who are at least above average defenders with skating and some degree of puck skills.

I disagree. I think Zaitsev needs a partner that can do the transitioning for him. Very limited sample size, but he has done a lot worse without Rielly/Gardiner (of course usage comes into picture here).

In my opinion, Dermott-Zaitsev should be the next combo. Gardiner-Rielly* should be the 1st pairing. Hainsey on the bottom-pairing, where he belongs, with either Rosen or Carrick, makes a well-rounded lineup.

Gardiner (#2) - Rielly (#1)*
Dermott (#3) - Zaitsev (#4)
Hainsey (#5) - Carrick (#5) OR Rosen (#5/6) - Hainsey (#5)

 

[Morgs]

I'd love to see us try

Gardiner-Rielly
Dermott-Zaitsev

Too bad Babcock will attach an anchor to Rielly's hip as usual.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Rielly Zaitsev (20 min)
Dermott Hainsey (20 min)
Gardiner Carrick (20 min)
Rosen Holl

 

[Critical13]

Rielly Zaitsev (20 min)
Dermott Hainsey (20 min)
Gardiner Carrick (20 min)
Rosen Holl

I Rielly on the ice a hell of a lot more than Rosen-Carrick.