Blue Jays Discussion: Alright, we have a manager now. So it's back to patiently waiting for Vlad Jr.

[The Nemesis]

So one of the Jays candidates was hired right out from under them. And all the while Shapiro is sitting there, twiddling his thumbs going:

 

[Discoverer]

One thing that I could never wrap my head around, in regards to the Spanish speaking manager, and I hate to bring everything back around to hockey, but why is that never a consideration in the NHL. I guess the one position that there is the want for another language is the Canadiens Head Coach, but never for player purposes. Every player either learns English or is already speaking it when they get to the NHL, i.e. Dahlin (before), Yakupov (playing in the OHL), and Tarasenko (during). Why is there hesitation when it comes to Spanish speaking or Latin American baseball players? Vlad was born here, grew up a little here, and has been in the Jays system (English speaking leagues) for 3 full seasons.

It's not a requirement of a manager, it's just a preference. Being able to better communicate with your players is always a positive.

 

[dredeye]

One thing that I could never wrap my head around, in regards to the Spanish speaking manager, and I hate to bring everything back around to hockey, but why is that never a consideration in the NHL. I guess the one position that there is the want for another language is the Canadiens Head Coach, but never for player purposes. Every player either learns English or is already speaking it when they get to the NHL, i.e. Dahlin (before), Yakupov (playing in the OHL), and Tarasenko (during). Why is there hesitation when it comes to Spanish speaking or Latin American baseball players? Vlad was born here, grew up a little here, and has been in the Jays system (English speaking leagues) for 3 full seasons.

The difference is that in hockey those players are always surrounded with more people that speak their language than don’t. In baseball there are more than enough people that speak Spanish that players can pretty easily get by without learning English. Seems crazy to me that they wouldn’t learn it but it is what it is

 

[dredeye]

David Bell to the Reds.
Brad Ausmus to the Angels.

Leaving the Jays, Rangers, Twins, and O’s with vacancies. O’s don’t have a GM so I doubt they will be hiring a manager anytime soon.

Everyone except the O’s have interviewed Hyde, Baldelli and Espada. Espada withdrew from the Twins job so if Espada wants to be a MLB manager next season it will be the Rangers or Jays.

I think Espada is the Jays #1 target. With Baldelli and Hyde good consolation prizes.

Could be wrong but I think we are getting a clearer picture of who the manager might be and should be soon.

I have a feeling Espada is going to end up with the Rangers. Texas seems like a spot he’s likely already very comfortable in. It will be real hard to win that battle I think.

 

[heatersthebest]

It's not a requirement of a manager, it's just a preference. Being able to better communicate with your players is always a positive.

Definitely not saying it was a requirement and I understand that preference from an organizational viewpoint, I was more thinking about the players themselves. Media is English, announcements/game in English, English countries, just seems like you might want to learn the language as a player to better communicate. And by no means am I suggesting that the players should/need to, just curious.

 

[phillipmike]

I have a feeling Espada is going to end up with the Rangers. Texas seems like a spot he’s likely already very comfortable in. It will be real hard to win that battle I think.

Common sense tells me that the Rangers are more alluring to him. 4 hours from where he lives, closer to Puerto Rico and better to be in a division where the Red Sox and Yankees aren’t.

Hyde and Baldelli wouldn’t be bad choices either.

 

[phillipmike]

Keith Law at it again;

I caught three games from Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is so clearly the best player here -- one of the best in the history of the Arizona Fall League -- that he seems to be on cruise control. He's so far ahead of the pitchers he's facing that he seems like he's bored and isn't showing his normal, disciplined approach at the plate, instead swinging earlier in the count and often swinging for the fences to try to create some highlight moments for the crowds (who cheer every time he's up, regardless of the ballpark).

Of course, the story the Toronto Blue Jays front office is peddling is that he's here to work on his defense at third base and that that's why they didn't call him up in September or sooner, even though his bat has been ready since May or so. They're technically correct -- his defense at third is poor, and given his sheer size, it's more likely to get worse than better -- but a few weeks in the AFL isn't going to make any difference, and there's no sign right now that he's any better at third than he was in the spring. He has a plus arm, and his hands are fine, but moving that sheer bulk quickly enough for third is difficult, and he's going to end up somewhere else -- maybe right field, most likely first base or DH. The physical comparables for him are relatively few, and the only one who stayed at third, Miguel Cabrera, wasn't this big at 19 and was a well below-average defender at third base once he did get huge.

Fellow Blue Jays prospect Nate Pearson, who missed almost the entire 2018 season after he took a comebacker to his elbow in his first outing, threw well in his first appearance in Arizona, but his second was a disaster. Even in warm-ups, he clearly didn't have his release point, sending his second pitch to the backstop, and it was no better in the game: He recorded only three outs, pitching into the second inning, walking four and giving up eight runs.

Pearson was throwing his fastball at 92-98 mph, sitting at 95-96 and dialing down to try to throw strikes (it didn't work), complemented by three below-average secondary pitches, the best of which was a power slider at 85-89 mph that at least flashed some average at the top end of the range. He's a big kid at 6-foot-6 and 245 pounds, with good extension in his delivery, albeit with a slight cutoff in his landing, but in this outing, he couldn't consistently repeat his arm action, and his release point was all over the place, which resulted in that extreme wildness that cost him. He's healthy, so here's hoping the lack of control was just a function of rust.

Cavan Biggio is also here, but he has looked even worse than he did in the second half of 2018, to the point that he appears to barely be a major league prospect. He has no position at all. He misplayed a routine grounder at first that cost Pearson at least one out and probably two runs and had an awful read on a line drive to him in right field in a different game. He doesn't have the speed or athleticism to obviously profile anywhere. He drew a slew of walks this season, but it's because he's passive, not because he's disciplined; I saw him strike out looking four times this week, always on pitches that were clearly strikes, at least two of them fastballs from right-handers that he should have seen better than he did. I know his superficial line this year has some fans thinking he's a future regular, but I see an up-and-down guy.

 

[The Nemesis]

His Guerrero scouting report isn't wrong, albeit with the obviously unnecessary shot at the front office because of course there is.

The other stuff just comes off like him doubling down on his decision that the Jays system sucks. The deck is stacked against most prospects anyways, so might as well say they're gonna bust since he'll likely be right more often than not just on account of the nature of player development.

 

[TF97]

One player that I would target this offseason is Chase Anderson. He had a down year after his 2017 breakout and is on a cheap team-friendly contract. Milwaukee left him off their playoff roster and might be interested in dealing him in order to further address their rotation or other areas with needs.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Keith Law at it again;

Meh. This is him just taking an opportunity to take a shot. The timing of the article is fairly transparent, writing and releasing it after his blow up start rather than after his first start (Nate Pearson Shows Off Nasty Arsenal In First Arizona Fall League Start (video)).

The bias is pretty hilarious.
BBA also talks about Nate Pearson in their latest podcast (
@ 6:10-9:00) Pro Podcast: Vlad Jr, Forrest Whitley And Other Arizona Fall League Notes

According to Josh Norris:
- Really good (Not quite Forrest Whitley level)
- Touched 100 mph five times in AFL so far
- Curve, Slider, Changeup require more finesse, but all have the potential to be 6/6 with more refinement
- Must control the body more, must improve fastball command
- Missed the year, but is the #2 pitcher prospect in the AFL
- Floor: Dellin Betances, Ceiling: "something special"

For the rest, crapping on the ~#11 prospect in an org to make yourself feel better seems foolish.

 

[phillipmike]

Looking For A Match In A Justin Smoak Trade

 

[Amadeus]

I think it will be Espada. Being bilingual will give him a little edge.

 

[phillipmike]

I think it will be Espada. Being bilingual will give him a little edge.

Joe Espada in Toronto to interview for Blue Jays' managerial positon - Sportsnet.ca

Got to believe he is the #1 target.

Baldelli has to be #2.

 

[Woodman19]

I do like the idea of a 37 year old manager.

 

[BlueForever75]

I like the idea of any age manager as long as we get one that will play some exciting style baseball. More steals, more sacrifices, more bunts, more hit and runs, etc....

Blue Jays baseball was very boring the past 2 seasons once our big boppers became big poopers.

 

[Eyedea]

I like the idea of any age manager as long as we get one that will play some exciting style baseball. More steals, more sacrifices, more bunts, more hit and runs, etc....

Blue Jays baseball was very boring the past 2 seasons once our big boppers became big poopers.

All I’m reading is more outs, more outs, more outs, more hit and get outs.

 

[Cor]

Seems like if things go well with Espada today he'll be the guy.

Astros GM had very good things to say about him.

 

[phillipmike]

Baldelli in Minnesota for a 2nd interview.

Espada hasnt met with Rangers face to face yet.

Got to like the Jays chances of landing Espada if the Twins are zeroing in on Baldelli and Espada is in Toronto.

 

[Discoverer]

More steals

No manager can make a team fast, and any manager who tries to get a slow team to try stealing more probably shouldn't be a manager.

more sacrifices

But not on purpose.

more bunts

But only for hits.

more hit and runs, etc....

Everyone loves a good, old fashioned hit and run until it turns into a double play via strike out or line drive.

 

[Discoverer]

Meh. This is him just taking an opportunity to take a shot. The timing of the article is fairly transparent, writing and releasing it after his blow up start rather than after his first start (Nate Pearson Shows Off Nasty Arsenal In First Arizona Fall League Start (video)).

The bias is pretty hilarious.
BBA also talks about Nate Pearson in their latest podcast (
@ 6:10-9:00) Pro Podcast: Vlad Jr, Forrest Whitley And Other Arizona Fall League Notes

According to Josh Norris:
- Really good (Not quite Forrest Whitley level)
- Touched 100 mph five times in AFL so far
- Curve, Slider, Changeup require more finesse, but all have the potential to be 6/6 with more refinement
- Must control the body more, must improve fastball command
- Missed the year, but is the #2 pitcher prospect in the AFL
- Floor: Dellin Betances, Ceiling: "something special"

For the rest, crapping on the ~#11 prospect in an org to make yourself feel better seems foolish.

Yep.

I like how he turns Vlad completely and utterly destroying opposing pitchers into a negative against the Jays (he's "bored" and just toying with inferior pitching rather than developing), as if they're hampering his development by holding him down there longer. (Hint: they're not.)

 

[The Nemesis]

I like the idea of any age manager as long as we get one that will play some exciting style baseball. More steals, more sacrifices, more bunts, more hit and runs, etc....

Blue Jays baseball was very boring the past 2 seasons once our big boppers became big poopers.

The team's job is to win, not be exciting. Though in the end winning is exciting.

Steals aren't likely unless the team changes its makeup. Like Discoverer said, you can't force a team not built to steal to steal. And trying to force steals into the gameplan when its not suitable only creates more outs.

I defy anyone to tell me that sacrifices are exciting. And unless you need to play for just the 1 run and the sacrifice will get it for you, you shouldn't be initiating sacrifice plays on purpose.

Bunts.... nooooooo. Bunting is, quite honestly, mostly stupid. If trading outs for a single run is often a poor return, then trading outs for 90 feet of runner advancement and no runs is even stupider.

I'm not going to post all the run expectancy math again, but I did look it up on Baseball Prospectus in composing this post and the basic facts still hold true: Teams that trade an out for 90 feet, no matter the bases traveled, # of non-scoring baserunners, or # of outs at the time of the bunt end up scoring fewer runs in the inning than they would have from the prior runners/outs deployment had they not made the sacrifice. If you're bunting with 1 out already, you just about slash your expected runs in half just for sacrificing into out #2.

Hit and run plays are dangerous and generally ill-suited for many of the same reasons as bunts and sacrifices, except that now you're actually making things worse if it doesn't work because the most likely failure outcome is at least removing a baserunner, then the strikeout/thrown-out double play. By run expectancy as with bunting, the only way you come out ahead is with an unmitigated success. Any amount of failure in execution is likely to make you worse off, unless something unexpected happens and the defence boots it and your runner gets from 1st to 3rd while the batter is put out at 1st. Also for what it's worth, this isn't even a totally analytical bias against the play. Earl Weaver was known to greatly detest the hit and run because he felt it wasn't successful often enough to warrant its usage.

It's easy to say the Jays sucked when their hitters stopped hitting for power, but of course they did. That's the truth with all teams out there. League-wide batting averages and OBP have been generally trending downward for about the last 25 years. The Jays have been hampered generally by poorer-than-average team batting results, but they're a symptom of the new normal (and in part of the continued deployment of some awful, awful hitters at the bottom of the lineup, not necessarily poor strategy. Russ Martin, Ryan Goins, Darwin Barney, Yangervis Solarte, the shambling zombie remains of Jose Bautista, Ezequiel Carrera. These are guys whose play over the last 3-4 seasons have made Kevin Pillar's underwhelming offensive production look positively sterling by comparison. And yet they've gotten 300-500+ PAs in multiple years in spite of epicly sucking)

Small ball looks exciting because it has lots of moving pieces. But that excitement tends to mask the fact that at best it rarely significantly aids in success and at worst it often hinders it. There's a time and a place for all of those plays, it's just not most of the time and only in very few places.

 

[Pyrophorus]

Stubby Clapp was interviewed today

That's more like it.

 

[phillipmike]

Stubby Clapp was interviewed today

That's more like it.

Report: Blue Jays interviewed Canadian Stubby Clapp for manager job - Sportsnet.ca

Sounds like they interviewed him but not necessarily today. Just that they interviewed him in general.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Report: Blue Jays interviewed Canadian Stubby Clapp for manager job - Sportsnet.ca

Sounds like they interviewed him but not necessarily today. Just that they interviewed him in general.

Would be a good bench coach.

 

[metafour]

Stubby Clapp was interviewed today

That's more like it.

Elliot's report says that he was "interviewed", it says nothing about the interview being today, or it being an in person interview. They have "interviewed" a lot of candidates. Espada/Baldelli appear to be the top two candidates, with Baldelli supposedly close to getting the Minny job.