Management V

[PecaFan]

Yes, I expect the measures to be proven to be relevant and have correlation before being used to draw conclusions.

It wouldn't be a problem if it were just observational. But instead, people use them in their arguments - "X is having a great year, look at his Corsi, and he has a great PFI! (PecaFanIndex TM)".

 

[F A N]

Look what Bobrovsky, Varlamov, and Lehner just signed for. Varlamov is a good comparison here as at 31 he signed a 5 year $25M deal. $5 million is the starting rate for a quality starter, and I could be wrong but I feel like there's going to be more of a market this summer for goalies. Not just teams that have an open slot but there are others like Buffalo or Carolina with a mediocre B rate $3M(+/-) guy who will have 1 year left that they could move on from. You also have to think Markstrom and his agent are certainly going to try for a big contract, as he didn't become the #1 starter till quite late in his career this will likely be the first and last chance Markstrom has to cash in on some big NHL $$$. The next 3 years could see him earn more than his entire career so far.

Bobrovsky is a 2 time Vezina winner and Tallon went crazy for him so clearly he doesn't belong in the same discussion.

Varlamov signed for 4 years not 5. Lehner signed for 1 year. Both signed for $5M AAV. So if these guys are the comparables, how likely is Markstrom getting a 5 year deal at $6M+ AAV?

There's also the possibility that Holtby and Lehner hits the market alongside Markstrom. Markstrom is good. I do think ~$5M AAV is the price for Markstrom. But I don't think he's getting both term an $6M+ AAV in his next contract without him stealing playoff series.

 

[absolute garbage]

^ It's difficult to predict goalies. I think most would say it made no sense that Varlamov got a 20M contract last summer and Lehner only 5M considering their recent performances. What Markstrom could get is a mystery to everyone. There are bunch of teams who could really use a goalie like Markstrom, but are teams like Detroit and Ottawa going to make that signing next summer or are they thinking they will suck one more year and then get a goalie. Don't know. They might also draft that brilliant Russian kid with their first pick so there's that.

It's an awkward situation for Jimbo because of the expansion draft and the whole possibly not having a first round pick in 2021 thing.

I've been wondering about Tanev too though. What kind of contract is he after? If I'm Tanev I'm probably looking at Stralman last summer. 33 years old, some durability issues but has been a very good defensive player, and signed a 3 year deal at 5.5M. Since Tanev is 3 years younger, I'm guessing he'd be looking at something like 4-6 years around 5-6M. Not sure the Canucks can afford to let him go. They don't have anything like that coming up.

 

[I am toxic]

^ It's difficult to predict goalies. I think most would say it made no sense that Varlamov got a 20M contract last summer and Lehner only 5M considering their recent performances. What Markstrom could get is a mystery to everyone. There are bunch of teams who could really use a goalie like Markstrom, but are teams like Detroit and Ottawa going to make that signing next summer or are they thinking they will suck one more year and then get a goalie. Don't know. They might also draft that brilliant Russian kid with their first pick so there's that.

It's an awkward situation for Jimbo because of the expansion draft and the whole possibly not having a first round pick in 2021 thing.

I've been wondering about Tanev too though. What kind of contract is he after? If I'm Tanev I'm probably looking at Stralman last summer. 33 years old, some durability issues but has been a very good defensive player, and signed a 3 year deal at 5.5M. Since Tanev is 3 years younger, I'm guessing he'd be looking at something like 4-6 years around 5-6M. Not sure the Canucks can afford to let him go. They don't have anything like that coming up.

Just came here to say how much I like your username.

 

[F A N]

^ It's difficult to predict goalies. I think most would say it made no sense that Varlamov got a 20M contract last summer and Lehner only 5M considering their recent performances. What Markstrom could get is a mystery to everyone. There are bunch of teams who could really use a goalie like Markstrom, but are teams like Detroit and Ottawa going to make that signing next summer or are they thinking they will suck one more year and then get a goalie. Don't know. They might also draft that brilliant Russian kid with their first pick so there's that.

But if you're predicting that teams would continue to sign UFA goalies to deals that make no sense what do you think the odds are that Markstrom would get a 5 year deal at $6M+ AAV? It's not "free agent frenzy" applies to goalies the past few years. The Panthers basically targeted Bobrovsky. The Islanders were willing to pay $5M AAV for an established #1 goalie but they weren't willing to commit long term to Lehner who was/is objectively better than Varlamov. The fact that nobody jumped at the opportunity to offer Lehner a long term deal at over $5M AAV should tell you something.

 

[MS]

^ It's difficult to predict goalies. I think most would say it made no sense that Varlamov got a 20M contract last summer and Lehner only 5M considering their recent performances. What Markstrom could get is a mystery to everyone. There are bunch of teams who could really use a goalie like Markstrom, but are teams like Detroit and Ottawa going to make that signing next summer or are they thinking they will suck one more year and then get a goalie. Don't know. They might also draft that brilliant Russian kid with their first pick so there's that.

It's an awkward situation for Jimbo because of the expansion draft and the whole possibly not having a first round pick in 2021 thing.

I've been wondering about Tanev too though. What kind of contract is he after? If I'm Tanev I'm probably looking at Stralman last summer. 33 years old, some durability issues but has been a very good defensive player, and signed a 3 year deal at 5.5M. Since Tanev is 3 years younger, I'm guessing he'd be looking at something like 4-6 years around 5-6M. Not sure the Canucks can afford to let him go. They don't have anything like that coming up.

Lehner only got $5 million because - despite all the Let's Talk! stuff - there is still a massive stigma around mental illness in the NHL. He's kind of a special case in terms of his value and why it was so low.

 

[RandV]

Bobrovsky is a 2 time Vezina winner and Tallon went crazy for him so clearly he doesn't belong in the same discussion.

Varlamov signed for 4 years not 5. Lehner signed for 1 year. Both signed for $5M AAV. So if these guys are the comparables, how likely is Markstrom getting a 5 year deal at $6M+ AAV?

There's also the possibility that Holtby and Lehner hits the market alongside Markstrom. Markstrom is good. I do think ~$5M AAV is the price for Markstrom. But I don't think he's getting both term an $6M+ AAV in his next contract without him stealing playoff series.

I mean I did list age when I compared the two, so kind of the point of 4 years vs 5 is that would take both goalies to age 35/36 on their final year. But otherwise I was just saying the type of contract I was anticipating, not making a hard prediction. Taking a hard stance and arguing about $5M vs $6M on a upcoming UFA at the start of December is kind of pointless.

Personally though when looking at and anticipating UFA contracts I like to put myself in the players shoes, as while it may not be the be the most appealing view as your teams fan the players/agents win more often than not, this last off season being the first exception for as long as I can remember. And from that perspective if I was Markstrom's agent I think the most relevant comparison contract concerning Benning and the Canucks would be Ryan Miller.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

Prust,Beagle,Schaller and Sutter were never going to move the needle for the Canucks ( 3 of them are 4th liners)..Panarin most definitely moves the needle for the NYR..Thats a high end 'win now' signing..He (and Trouba) moves them out of 'rebuild mode' (high draft picks) into almost bubble team contention...You cannot be 'contending and rebuilding' simultaneously....we've seen how 'serving two masters' works..been there..done that.

Replying this here as its more appropriate.
If Panarin/Trouba are considered only as "win now" moves, than what are Prust/Beagle/Schaller/Sutter/Eriksson/etc? They aren't helping the team win now, and won't be here when the team is competitive. They are essentially "win never" moves, justified by their ability to "rub shoulder" with the kids. I rather spend assets on Panarin that helps us "win now" and also "win later", then have the "win never" moves Benning constantly and continually makes.
Also, I keep reading how tanking doesn't work anymore with the lottery, and you need veterans lest you end up like the Oilers. I'm really not seeing why people aren't "all in" with the Rangers' rebuild. Isn't that the "right way"?

 

[F A N]

I mean I did list age when I compared the two, so kind of the point of 4 years vs 5 is that would take both goalies to age 35/36 on their final year. But otherwise I was just saying the type of contract I was anticipating, not making a hard prediction. Taking a hard stance and arguing about $5M vs $6M on a upcoming UFA at the start of December is kind of pointless.

Who's taking a hard stance? You? Me? Both? Regardless, I don't see how it's pointless to discuss as we're talking about how existing players can or cannot fit under the cap

There is a huge difference in saying that Markstrom would can get at least a team to offer him a 5 year contract for $6M+ AAV vs a 3-4 year deal at ~$5M AAV. I think most of us are worried about term in any Markstrom deal and view -$5M AAV as fair for Markstrom if he's a top 10-15 goaltender. I think most of us here would say "see ya" without much hesitation if what it took to get Markstrom re-signed was a 5 year deal at $6M AAV.

My point is that I don't think teams would be lining up to sign Markstrom for 5 years at over $6M AAV as you and one other has predicted. If you are correct then I don't see the Canucks re-signing Markstrom. But if teams aren't offering Markstrom the type of term and money you're suggesting, then I can see the possibility of Markstrom re-signing here.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

Replying this here as its more appropriate.
If Panarin/Trouba are considered only as "win now" moves, than what are Prust/Beagle/Schaller/Sutter/Eriksson/etc? They aren't helping the team win now, and won't be here when the team is competitive. They are essentially "win never" moves, justified by their ability to "rub shoulder" with the kids. I rather spend assets on Panarin that helps us "win now" and also "win later", then have the "win never" moves Benning constantly and continually makes.
Also, I keep reading how tanking doesn't work anymore with the lottery, and you need veterans lest you end up like the Oilers. I'm really not seeing why people aren't "all in" with the Rangers' rebuild. Isn't that the "right way"?

Eriksson (and Sutter) was considered a 'win now' player that would make us competitive while rebuilding..We all saw how terribly that worked out....Although,I do think that Sutter is an effective player when healthy.

Comparing Prust,Beagle ,Schaller signings to the $9M Panarin is ludicrous...Again, 4th liners and placeholders are not going to move the needle....I would have liked to have Panarin on the Canucks as well, but in FA,a player gets to pick his destination...Its not an even playing field to obtain these players.

NYR obviously are not tanking, and these 'win now' signings confirm that..So are they already rebuilt,?.... or they are 'rebuilding on the fly'..which is it.?.(again I'm voicing the concerns of some Ranger fans).

My opinion is they would have been better off to' bottom out' longer...They already let the fans know, and I think that they would have been more receptive to that..Other than Kakko,I'm currently not seeing any of their high picks as game changers..To be a legit SC contender in the future, they need more top of the draft elite talent.

 

[F A N]

Just came here to say how much I like your username.

Is there a poster by the name of absolute toxic garbage?

 

[Javaman]

Is there a poster by the name of absolute toxic garbage?

There should be.

dibs

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

 

[Peen]

If Benning can dump Sutter/Beagle, Eriksson, Baertschi, and Ferland - I can get excited about the future of this team.

Those guys inhibit any short-term Stanley Cup potential. That's 18 million of deadweight. I like Pearson and Roussell in the middle six more than Ferland. Baertschi is done. Eriksson is shit. Gaudette is better than both Sutter and Beagle and the team sucks with both of them playing.

It's an impossible task lol

 

[vanuck]

If Benning can dump Sutter/Beagle, Eriksson, Baertschi, and Ferland - I can get excited about the future of this team.

Those guys inhibit any short-term Stanley Cup potential. That's 18 million of deadweight. I like Pearson and Roussell in the middle six more than Ferland. Baertschi is done. Eriksson is ****. Gaudette is better than both Sutter and Beagle and the team sucks with both of them playing.

It's an impossible task lol

Yeah we'd basically have to throw in picks on top just to get rid of them. I don't even want to think about what we'd have to add to make Eriksson disappear...

 

[Canucks1096]

If Benning can dump Sutter/Beagle, Eriksson, Baertschi, and Ferland - I can get excited about the future of this team.

Those guys inhibit any short-term Stanley Cup potential. That's 18 million of deadweight. I like Pearson and Roussell in the middle six more than Ferland. Baertschi is done. Eriksson is ****. Gaudette is better than both Sutter and Beagle and the team sucks with both of them playing.

It's an impossible task lol

Canucks were 9 6 3 when they had a healthy Sutter and Beagle. Since both of them went down in the Nash game. Canucks are 4 and 6 and given up 36 GA. Main reason for that is PK has decline, and nobody on the roster was able to replace those two.

So Sutter Beagle vs Gaudette and ahl center. Winner Sutter Bealge.

Gaudette Sutter vs Beagle ahl center
Winner Sutter Gaudette

Btw did you see the Pits game. Third period Gaudette lost two faceoffs cleanly and that resulted in two of the Pits goals in the third period.

Evidences shows that Canucks are a better team with Sutter and Beagle.

You might believe in generalizations but I believe in evidences.

 

[y2kcanucks]

If Benning can dump Sutter/Beagle, Eriksson, Baertschi, and Ferland - I can get excited about the future of this team.

Those guys inhibit any short-term Stanley Cup potential. That's 18 million of deadweight. I like Pearson and Roussell in the middle six more than Ferland. Baertschi is done. Eriksson is ****. Gaudette is better than both Sutter and Beagle and the team sucks with both of them playing.

It's an impossible task lol

Add Myers to the list too. He’s awful.

 

[valkynax]

Add Myers to the list too. He’s awful.

Which of these should be the number 1 priority?

I vote Eriksson.

 

[tantalum]

Which of these should be the number 1 priority?

I vote Eriksson.

1a, 1b, 1c, 1d.....But Eriksson is probably the one-iest.

 

[vancityluongo]

If Benning can dump Sutter/Beagle, Eriksson, Baertschi, and Ferland - I can get excited about the future of this team.

Those guys inhibit any short-term Stanley Cup potential. That's 18 million of deadweight. I like Pearson and Roussell in the middle six more than Ferland. Baertschi is done. Eriksson is ****. Gaudette is better than both Sutter and Beagle and the team sucks with both of them playing.

It's an impossible task lol

Yup.

Miller - Pettersson - Boeser
xxx - Horvat - xxx
Leivo - Gaudette - Pearson
Roussel - xxx - Virtanen

Hughes - xxx
xxx - Tanev
Edler - Stecher

Markstrom/Demko
xxx

That's a pretty decent core. If we only had those players signed, it wouldn't be too hard to elevate this team into contending status. 2 top-6 wingers and 2 top-4 defensemen are not exactly easy to find, but there would be like 40M in cap space, so it wouldn't be too bad. Add a cheap 4th line center, a serviceable backup goalie capable of 30 starts if needed (Anders Nilsson) and things are looking really good. Essentially where a team like Colorado sat last offseason.

 

[xtra]

Yup.

Miller - Pettersson - Boeser
xxx - Horvat - xxx
Leivo - Gaudette - Pearson
Roussel - xxx - Virtanen

Hughes - xxx
xxx - Tanev
Edler - Stecher

Markstrom/Demko
xxx

That's a pretty decent core. If we only had those players signed, it wouldn't be too hard to elevate this team into contending status. 2 top-6 wingers and 2 top-4 defensemen are not exactly easy to find, but there would be like 40M in cap space, so it wouldn't be too bad. Add a cheap 4th line center, a serviceable backup goalie capable of 30 starts if needed (Anders Nilsson) and things are looking really good. Essentially where a team like Colorado sat last offseason.

Man I wish people had the foresight to point out the stupid long term deals signed would hurt us. Guess no one could have seen that coming

 

[Seattle Totems]

How often do UFA signings work out compared to RFA signings? It seems that a high percentage of UFA's become a CBA liability in short order. It would be interesting to see an analysis.

 

[Bojack Horvatman]

How often do UFA signings work out compared to RFA signings? It seems that a high percentage of UFA's become a CBA liability in short order. It would be interesting to see an analysis.

The only RFA contract that off the top of my head remember being bought out is Hodgson. The only bad, long-term RFA contract I can think of is Matheson. Usually only star players get signed long-term as an RFA, so there aren't too many albatross contracts.

 

[RandV]

Yup.

Miller - Pettersson - Boeser
xxx - Horvat - xxx
Leivo - Gaudette - Pearson
Roussel - xxx - Virtanen

Hughes - xxx
xxx - Tanev
Edler - Stecher

Markstrom/Demko
xxx

That's a pretty decent core. If we only had those players signed, it wouldn't be too hard to elevate this team into contending status. 2 top-6 wingers and 2 top-4 defensemen are not exactly easy to find, but there would be like 40M in cap space, so it wouldn't be too bad. Add a cheap 4th line center, a serviceable backup goalie capable of 30 starts if needed (Anders Nilsson) and things are looking really good. Essentially where a team like Colorado sat last offseason.

Not to mention the extra trade assets we could have had to help fill those roles if we focused on selling for futures while we were in the basement for so long like literally every other team in the basement does.

 

[Motte and Bailey]

The Canucks have been making record profits almost every year that Benning has been GM.

from a business POV why would he ever get fired? He wouldn’t.