Managed Expectations: #246 Improve Our Goaltending

[wpgsilver]

I don't really understand that goalie coach stat that was thrown out there. Seems like that would be pretty hard to quantify. If you have a technically sound goalie switching coaching likely wouldn't have much of an effect, I get that. But if a goalie has a glaring deficiency and a coach could help him fix that I would imagine it would make a difference.

Rebound control can certainly be improved through better fundamentals, its not as though you're either born with it or not.

If a different voice could help Pavs learn to be better at that skill I think it would go a long way.

http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2013...nders-statistical-team-effects-ondrej-pavelec

"The best defensive-minded coaches improved their goaltenders by 0.004 and 0.006 save percentage and even that seems to be predominately due to "luck" (ie: variance) than anything else."

EDIT: There is the disconnect.

I'm not talking about systems. I'm talking about a goalie coach focusing on fundamental skills.

 

[garret9]

Unfortunately, goalie coaches, historically have very little impact on Goalies. Something like .04% +/-. I'm not sure how many fewer goals that would translate into for Pavelec over a season. Maybe it would help a little?

goalie coaches =/= team systems but ok

That stat is for head coach/system change and changing teams...
It's to measure how much a team can potentially affect goalie save percentage.

Goalie coaching would probably be best looked at a players development curve, although that would be really muddied by multiple variables.

I'd say though that the last 4 years Pavelec's development has been very stagnant... so I think while Flaherty may or may not be the problem, he has not been the solution.

 

[wpgsilver]

That stat is for head coach/system change and changing teams...
It's to measure how much a team can potentially affect goalie save percentage.

Goalie coaching would probably be best looked at a players development curve, although that would be really muddied by multiple variables.

I'd say though that the last 4 years Pavelec's development has been very stagnant... so I think while Flaherty may or may not be the problem, he has not been the solution.

The bolded is what I was getting at, well put.

I don't know that changing goalie coaches would fix the problem, but I don't think the problem would get worse.

 

[Sixty Minute Man]

Yeah, okay. We're on the same page now.

Maybe that's the path the team needs to take. ie. replace Flaherty to hopefully improve goaltending, replace Pearn and Vincent to help improve special teams. If that isn't working, then you replace Noel. If that doesn't work then you try a new goaltender, etc.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Mike Smith and Sean Burke are one example. But Smith also changed teams.

 

[garret9]

Mike Smith and Sean Burke are one example. But Smith also changed teams.

Want to look into Tippett's and Hitchcock's history overall with goalies instead of just using few examples that stand out?



(pro tip: I've already looked and it's already been linked in this thread)

 

[Aavco Cup]

Want to look into Tippett's and Hitchcock's history overall with goalies instead of just using few examples that stand out?



(pro tip: I've already looked and it's already been linked in this thread)

I would be more interested in Sean Burke's history. I never mentioned Tippett.

 

[garret9]

I would be more interested in Sean Burke's history. I never mentioned Tippett.

Maybe I misunderstood... I thought we were talking about goalies who sometimes seem to do better under one team than another.

 

[Mathmew Purrrr Oh]

Maybe I misunderstood... I thought we were talking about goalies who sometimes seem to do better under one team than another.

I'm not even sure if the effects of a goaltender coach could confidently or accurately be reflected in statistics

Numbers I would look to all have serious issues, the biggest of which is obviously sample size

signed,
Perplexed in Winnipeg

 

[BigZ65]

And I'd rather Monty's better positional play over Pavelec's better athleticism. I'd also add that Montoya has better rebound control.

Athleticism is overrated when you turn into a statue the second you lose sight of the puck and forget to use your glove.

 

[BigZ65]

That stat is for head coach/system change and changing teams...
It's to measure how much a team can potentially affect goalie save percentage.

Goalie coaching would probably be best looked at a players development curve, although that would be really muddied by multiple variables.

I'd say though that the last 4 years Pavelec's development has been very stagnant... so I think while Flaherty may or may not be the problem, he has not been the solution.

Maybe Pavelec is a mediocre NHL goalie.

 

[garret9]

Maybe Pavelec is a mediocre NHL goalie.

I think he is... but you'd hope some progression which hasn't really been shown.

 

[citizenmundane]

When I look at Pavelec, I see a lot of similarity to the Buff situation. The guy has talent, shows streaks of potential greatness but really hasn't lived up to what he could/should be. He needs to realize that if he doesn't shape up he won't be a starter in the NHL.

I lay much of this on Chevy and the coaches, it's their job to help him get better and to let him know that if he doesn't do the things to make himself better (listen to coaches, stop drinking, eat better, workout more) he will not be the clear cut #1. There's been way too much coddling of Pavs and his fragile ego for my liking.

 

[PegCityPuck]

I am far from a Pav lover but to say he is our #1 problem is oversimplifying things. If his numbers were worse I would be more concerned about him specifically.

I would be focusing my efforts elsewhere right now but I wouldn't be ignoring Pavelic either.

Pav's numbers are a symptom not the cause.

By all means, trade him; bench him; publicly flog him; write articles about him pleading for more; but don't close your eyes to the rest of the team because you have a hard on for the goalie. Blaming the goalie is probably one of the easier things to do.

I am curious who you guys would play on Wednesday against the Hawks...

 

[garret9]

Combining 2011-12 and 2012-13 seasons, Jets placement of 30 teams for 5v5 situations:

Goals
GF/60 11
GA/60 25
GF% 21

Shots
SF/60 12
SA/60 15
SF% 14

Non-Blocked Shot Attemps
FF/60 9
FA/60 21
FF% 12

Shot Attempts
CF/60 9
CA/60 21
CF% 13

Percentages
Sh% 17
Sv% 24

 

[Beavski24]

If you want to win you have to play Pavs, he is our number one goalie. Starting Monty is just going to result in losses I hate to enlighten people but Montoya is terrible and Mason was terrible. Thier goals against for a team like ours that arnt offence studs... why would you risk losing a game playing a tender like that. Pavs at least gives us a fighting chance to win the game if the team improves scores more goals and tightens up and works hard we will win games

 

[garret9]

If you want to win you have to play Pavs, he is our number one goalie. Starting Monty is just going to result in losses I hate to enlighten people but Montoya is terrible and Mason was terrible. Thier goals against for a team like ours that arnt offence studs... why would you risk losing a game playing a tender like that. Pavs at least gives us a fighting chance to win the game if the team improves scores more goals and tightens up and works hard we will win games

You so sure?


Career:

Montoya SV% 0.907
Pavelec SV% 0.906



Only looking at 5v5 for moments when game is within 2 points:
Montoya 0.9208
Pavelec 0.9199


Bet there isn't much of a change between these two no matter what some here seem to think.

 

[meedle]

Short term we need:
1. new coach (plays better defensive system)
2. new goalie coach
3. another quality goalie (1B)

We are stuck with Pavs for 3 years, no one is going to want him with that contract. TNSE is not going to buy him out. At worst fighting for a starter job for 2 years and sitting on the bench as a backup for the 3rd year. Really need to find a stop gap between now and about another 5 years.

Long term it looks decent but you don't know how prospects will pan out. Hellebuyck, Comrie and Kasdorf will probably need 3-6 years to hit the Jets. I really would hate for them to push those guys until they are ready.

 

[Beavski24]

You so sure?


Career:

Montoya SV% 0.907
Pavelec SV% 0.906



Only looking at 5v5 for moments when game is within 2 points:
Montoya 0.9208
Pavelec 0.9199


Bet there isn't much of a change between these two no matter what some here seem to think.

I would go with NHL exp, and career wins Montoya hasnt played really seince the islanders. Stronger play from Pavs will = games won and in my honest opinon if Buff starts to produce some goals hes got like what 50 shots on goal 0 goals and we start hitting the net we are bound to pot some goals

 

[garret9]

I would go with NHL exp, and career wins Montoya hasnt played really seince the islanders. Stronger play from Pavs will = games won and in my honest opinon if Buff starts to produce some goals hes got like what 50 shots on goal 0 goals and we start hitting the net we are bound to pot some goals

Teams win by out chancing and sv% (and luck)...

Pavelec controls only one variable in the wins and that's the save percentage.

Montoya controls only one variable in the wins and that's the save percentage.

The two of them can't control the rest of the team.


Is Byfuglien's shots not scoring at his normal percentage because he not trying enough or has he spontaneously become a wet noodle shooter or just dumb luck?


EDIT:
If you want to go into it, all goalie stats that are not sv% are really just sv% with team stats added into it.

Wins are a combination of out-chancing (~50%), variance/luck (~30%), then the remainder is save percentage and sliver of shot quality talent.

GAAs are a combination of save percentage and shots against per game. GAA = (1-sv%) * SA/GP.

Goalies in both wins and GAA only control one variable in these stats, and ironically it's save percentage in every one.

 

[viper0220]

What do you guys think of Jacob Markstrom from Florida.

 

[peg]

Teams win by out chancing and sv% (and luck)...

Pavelec controls only one variable in the wins and that's the save percentage.

Montoya controls only one variable in the wins and that's the save percentage.

The two of them can't control the rest of the team.


Is Byfuglien's shots not scoring at his normal percentage because he not trying enough or has he spontaneously become a wet noodle shooter or just dumb luck?


EDIT:
If you want to go into it, all goalie stats that are not sv% are really just sv% with team stats added into it.

Wins are a combination of out-chancing (~50%), variance/luck (~30%), then the remainder is save percentage and sliver of shot quality talent.

GAAs are a combination of save percentage and shots against per game. GAA = (1-sv%) * SA/GP.

Goalies in both wins and GAA only control one variable in these stats, and ironically it's save percentage in every one.

Goalies also control rebounds and handle the puck, both impacting number of shots and wins. Save percentage is not the only variable.

 

[garret9]

Goalies also control rebounds and handle the puck, both impacting number of shots and wins. Save percentage is not the only variable.

It is true there is value there and it's even measured, but the grand scheme of things it's quite tiny. I was over simplifying.

The goals versus threshold of the greatest puck handlers though is on average of 1-3 goals a season.

Giving away a rebound sucks more if it goes in the net than if it doesn't.

Getting the play out of the d-zone less quickly sucks more if it goes in the net than it doesn't.

 

[Unholy goalie]

You so sure?


Career:

Montoya SV% 0.907
Pavelec SV% 0.906



Only looking at 5v5 for moments when game is within 2 points:
Montoya 0.9208
Pavelec 0.9199


Bet there isn't much of a change between these two no matter what some here seem to think.

That said, maybe there's another way around this. With Montoya's contract situation, he becomes a much better bargaining chip at the trade table. Maybe we could trade up to a "1B" (but hopefully down the road "1A") by packaging Montoya with a draft pick. Get someone who can challenge/overtake Pavelec for the #1 spot throughout the season, then a buyout at the end of the season is a no-brainer.

 

[White Out 403*]

Watching the Flames beat Chicago with a great goaltending performance from their goaltender is really frustrating. The TSN 1290 idiots must be baffled.