Managed Expectations: #246 Improve Our Goaltending

[Unholy goalie]

With our team knocking on the basement door, there are a lot of people talking about what needs to improve. If there's one thing we could all agree on, is that the answer to our problems involves improvement in multiple areas. There's no silver bullet here. As a result, many threads devolve into a mix bag of opinions so I thought it might be productive to unpack the Jets' tailspin topic by topic. If we take the following for granted:

We need to improve our goaltending.​

How does this realistically happen (both short term and long term)?

Pavelec is not owning up to his contract, and his performance is a detriment to the team overall. I'd love to see Pavelec moved out, but with a GAA and SV% that is 29th and 30th respectively there aren't likely to be any teams who see Pavelec as a worthwhile project (let alone upgrade). There aren't really any other goalies in our system who can challenge for the #1, though giving more starts to Montoya might slow the bleeding temporarily. We're in a bit of a tough position, but this needs to improve.

Thoughts?

Click to read more...

 

[Jet]

I'm not going to go into any depth here because I feel like pretty much everything has been said about this.

I think goaltending is the single biggest problem on this team. Even bigger than coaching. The weak goals, bad positioning and awful puck handling lead to probably one bad goal a game. We do not have the firepower to overcome that. Not to mention what it does to the team's confidence.

Noel has at least shown he can get the team on track. We played very well for the most part in the past 6 games and one period last night. The players busted their ass yet we ended up with far fewer points than we should have had because we don't get that critical save.

Of course, you can blame coaching for this as well because our HC seems to think our goaltending is superb.

 

[Gotaf7]

IMO I also think the goaltending is the biggest issue at this point, Pavs is not cutting it with the players we have we need average to above average goaltending, presently we have worst in the league goaltending.

Second biggest issue is our defensive system play, the friggin 5 man box is killing us I think we need way more checking pressure in our own end. Granted lots of the shots are coming from the outside using this system, but with worst in the league goaltending pucks are going to find the back of net.

 

[DominikPavelec]

Montoya is doing well. I don't see why we don't give him more starts and light and fire under Pavs. Something has gotta give here.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Montoya 3GP 1W 1L .944 SV% 1.57 GAA 1SO

Has not been given a chance.

 

[wpgsilver]

Goaltending is our biggest issue, but I think its exacerbated by coaching decisions that further degrade our ability to keep the puck out of the net.
I don't think Pavs would be a great goalie with any coach, but what a good coach can do is put him a situation to succeed. Obviously back-backs have been discussed to death, but certainly Pavs should never play those.
I think that when a team (like us) has a 2A and 2B goaltending tandem competition is essential, and we have none of that.
Pavs is treated as though his job is secure regardless of how he, or Monty plays. I initially wanted Pavs to play around 65 games, at this point I'd rather see him play 50-55.

I do think goaltending is our greatest issue, but I think better coaching could hide that weakness more effectively.

 

[garret9]

It's a comedy of error, from proper rest and game usage to contracts to goaltender coaching...

The fix isn't easy, obviously. We can't just magic wand it... but it IS possible to try.

There are no quick fixes, no easy mid-season options, and there probably won't (but could be) any at trade deadline that are good value.

The best model would simply follow these steps:

1) play Monty more... even if Montoya doesn't do better than Pavelec, you still create competition, push Pavelec, and when talking to FA goalies they aren't afraid you are going to give them 5/82 starts

2) pick up a 1B this summer... they are available more often and cheaper than people think (khudobin one example last summer)

3) give the 1B starts... for **** sakes don't ride one goalie unless you have someone consistently in top 5 sv% year in year out... and even then no back-to-backs.

4) keep looking for guys with potential... goalies development is so unpredictable... look at guys leaving college (Olkinuora) and Europe (Raanta) for improving depth with upside


Jets already do number 4, problem is they suck at 1-3...

 

[Unholy goalie]

I'm not going to go into any depth here because I feel like pretty much everything has been said about this.

I think goaltending is the single biggest problem on this team. Even bigger than coaching. The weak goals, bad positioning and awful puck handling lead to probably one bad goal a game. We do not have the firepower to overcome that. Not to mention what it does to the team's confidence.

Noel has at least shown he can get the team on track. We played very well for the most part in the past 6 games and one period last night. The players busted their ass yet we ended up with far fewer points than we should have had because we don't get that critical save.

Of course, you can blame coaching for this as well because our HC seems to think our goaltending is superb.

I couldn't agree more. I guess what I'm wondering is that, if we take it for granted that this needs to change, what are our options realistically. What could we do?

Montoya 3GP 1W 1L .944 SV% 1.57 GAA 1SO

Has not been given a chance.

This is one of the most common responses that gets thrown around here. Clearly the easiest thing short term is to give Montoya more starts. Is this the only short term solution?

 

[garret9]

PS

Jets missed 2011-12 playoffs by 8 points, avg diff between Pavelec and lg avg sv% was 6 points

Jets missed 2012-13 playoffs by 4 points, avg diff between Pavelec and lg avg sv% was 4 points


This is looking at avg reduction of GA, not by looking at each game (which I have done before on here)

 

[Unholy goalie]

It's a comedy of error, from proper rest and game usage to contracts to goaltender coaching...

The fix isn't easy, obviously. We can't just magic wand it... but it IS possible to try.

There are no quick fixes, no easy mid-season options, and there probably won't (but could be) any at trade deadline that are good value.

The best model would simply follow these steps:

1) play Monty more... even if Montoya doesn't do better than Pavelec, you still create competition, push Pavelec, and when talking to FA goalies they aren't afraid you are going to give them 5/82 starts

2) pick up a 1B this summer... they are available more often and cheaper than people think (khudobin one example last summer)

3) give the 1B starts... for **** sakes don't ride one goalie unless you have someone consistently in top 5 sv% year in year out... and even then no back-to-backs.

4) keep looking for guys with potential... goalies development is so unpredictable... look at guys leaving college (Olkinuora) and Europe (Raanta) for improving depth with upside


Jets already do number 4

The bolded for me is one of the most important things. At the team level, if Noel is going to hold players "accountable", then the same needs to apply to Pavelec. On an organisational scale, this kind of message will definitely help in attracting future talent (which we need).

 

[allan5oh]

The team plays so much better in front of Montoya. I noticed it the first year in front of Mason as well.

 

[garret9]

The team plays so much better in front of Montoya. I noticed it the first year in front of Mason as well.

I haven't looked at Montoya but with Mason I noticed Noel divvied up starts by quality of the other team...

Team didn't just play better with Mason cos they liked him more or thought he was better, but because Mason tended to play against weak teams.

 

[wpgsilver]

When I'm watching the game live I have more confidence with Monty in net.
He's a more positionally sound goalie, which gives off a much better appearance. He squares to shooters better and controls rebounds more effectively.
He won't make some of the spectacular saves Pavs will, but he also won't put himself in positions to have to make those saves.

Not saying Montoya is a god, but positionally I think he's far better.

I haven't looked at Montoya but with Mason I noticed Noel divvied up starts by quality of the other team...

Team didn't just play better with Mason cos they liked him more or thought he was better, but because Mason tended to play against weak teams.

This is exactly right. I've heard many people say how Mason was better than Pavs yada yada yada.
Mason played Carolina nearly every time we played them, and this was when Carolina wasn't very good. Not so much here, but when I talk to people about the Jets a lot of people seem to think Mason was so much better than Pavs. I didn't see that.

 

[Unholy goalie]

When I'm watching the game live I have more confidence with Monty in net.
He's a more positionally sound goalie, which gives off a much better appearance. He squares to shooters better and controls rebounds more effectively.
He won't make some of the spectacular saves Pavs will, but he also won't put himself in positions to have to make those saves.

Not saying Montoya is a god, but positionally I think he's far better.

And I'd rather Monty's better positional play over Pavelec's better athleticism. I'd also add that Montoya has better rebound control.

 

[PegCityPuck]

With our team knocking on the basement door, there are a lot of people talking about what needs to improve. If there's one thing we could all agree on, is that the answer to our problems involves improvement in multiple areas. There's no silver bullet here. As a result, many threads devolve into a mix bag of opinions so I thought it might be productive to unpack the Jets' tailspin topic by topic. If we take the following for granted:

We need to improve our goaltending.​

How does this realistically happen (both short term and long term)?

Pavelec is not owning up to his contract, and his performance is a detriment to the team overall. I'd love to see Pavelec moved out, but with a GAA and SV% that is 29th and 30th respectively there aren't likely to be any teams who see Pavelec as a worthwhile project (let alone upgrade). There aren't really any other goalies in our system who can challenge for the #1, though giving more starts to Montoya might slow the bleeding temporarily. We're in a bit of a tough position, but this needs to improve.

Thoughts?

Way to much emphasis is being put on Pavelic as the problem. Everyone is over reacting. Pavelic is far from our biggest problem right now. We need more from him but we need a lot more from everybody. It seems to be the in thing to do right now...blame the goalie. I suppose it is the easiest thing to do.

We have been playing well with nothing to show for it. A bunch of tight games where 1 tough bounce; rolling puck or failed defensive zone pickup or giveaway was the difference. There are few glaring problems but goaltending has not been one of them.

Pavelic has been frustrated. It is a team sport and his frustration shows up on his face sometimes. He needs to get over it and focus more on his job and less on what everyone else is doing.

Obviously if we could pickup a goalie who could come to Winnipeg and improve on what Pavelic has done I would be all for it!

 

[Unholy goalie]

Way to much emphasis is being put on Pavelic as the problem. Everyone is over reacting. Pavelic is far from our biggest problem right now. We need more from him but we need a lot more from everybody. It seems to be the in thing to do right now...blame the goalie. I suppose it is the easiest thing to do.

We have been playing well with nothing to show for it. A bunch of tight games where 1 tough bounce; rolling puck or failed defensive zone pickup or giveaway was the difference. There are few glaring problems but goaltending has not been one of them.

Pavelic has been frustrated. It is a team sport and his frustration shows up on his face sometimes. He needs to get over it and focus more on his job and less on what everyone else is doing.

Obviously if we could pickup a goalie who could come to Winnipeg and improve on what Pavelic has done I would be all for it!

Not saying Pavelec is the only problem. But the purpose here is to isolate goaltending as a performance variable and explore some possible options. Let's us get away from the mix bag of "Fire Noel!", "Send Scheifele down!", "Make a big trade!" that muddies up threads and allows us to focus on one thing.

 

[wpgsilver]

And I'd rather Monty's better positional play over Pavelec's better athleticism. I'd also add that Montoya has better rebound control.

I agree.
Ideally Pavs could work on his angles and rebound control though.

Not sure what Wade Flaherty is doing to keep his job, but I haven't seen much improvement in any of the Jets goalies over the years.

 

[Unholy goalie]

I agree.
Ideally Pavs could work on his angles and rebound control though.

Not sure what Wade Flaherty is doing to keep his job, but I haven't seen much improvement in any of the Jets goalies over the years.

That's an interesting option that I haven't heard talked about much. Could a goaltending coach change make a difference? I'm not too familiar with how they impact performance.

 

[ps241]

It's a comedy of error, from proper rest and game usage to contracts to goaltender coaching...

The fix isn't easy, obviously. We can't just magic wand it... but it IS possible to try.

There are no quick fixes, no easy mid-season options, and there probably won't (but could be) any at trade deadline that are good value.

The best model would simply follow these steps:

1) play Monty more... even if Montoya doesn't do better than Pavelec, you still create competition, push Pavelec, and when talking to FA goalies they aren't afraid you are going to give them 5/82 starts

2) pick up a 1B this summer... they are available more often and cheaper than people think (khudobin one example last summer)

3) give the 1B starts... for **** sakes don't ride one goalie unless you have someone consistently in top 5 sv% year in year out... and even then no back-to-backs.

4) keep looking for guys with potential... goalies development is so unpredictable... look at guys leaving college (Olkinuora) and Europe (Raanta) for improving depth with upside


Jets already do number 4, problem is they suck at 1-3...

Yea this is a great post garret!

If I was a betting man I would say we see change from TNSE and we begin to see alignment around this vision or maybe a more drastic approach by next season at the latest.

You know its an issue in the fans eyes when we have 4 threads going on our goaltending right now.

The way I look at it is moving to the west is our biggest problem outside goaltending and that is an uncontrollable variable. I have lost some faith in TNSE for how we have managed our goaltending assets over the past 3 seasons (outside drafting goalies which has been positive). This isn't going away yet we fiddle while Rome burns?

 

[Mathmew Purrrr Oh]

I agree.
Ideally Pavs could work on his angles and rebound control though.

Not sure what Wade Flaherty is doing to keep his job, but I haven't seen much improvement in any of the Jets goalies over the years.

there is no ex-Jet I would want to return more than Essensa

 

[PegCityPuck]

Not saying Pavelec is the only problem. But the purpose here is to isolate goaltending as a performance variable and explore some possible options. Let's us get away from the mix bag of "Fire Noel!", "Send Scheifele down!", "Make a big trade!" that muddies up threads and allows us to focus on one thing.

I am all for playing Monty a bit more. Pavelic looks a little frustrated and run down if you ask me. Maybe we could squeeze a bit more out of him if he got a bit more down time.

 

[garret9]

Way to much emphasis is being put on Pavelic as the problem. Everyone is over reacting. Pavelic is far from our biggest problem right now. We need more from him but we need a lot more from everybody. It seems to be the in thing to do right now...blame the goalie. I suppose it is the easiest thing to do.

We have been playing well with nothing to show for it. A bunch of tight games where 1 tough bounce; rolling puck or failed defensive zone pickup or giveaway was the difference. There are few glaring problems but goaltending has not been one of them.

Pavelic has been frustrated. It is a team sport and his frustration shows up on his face sometimes. He needs to get over it and focus more on his job and less on what everyone else is doing.

Obviously if we could pickup a goalie who could come to Winnipeg and improve on what Pavelic has done I would be all for it!

Historically it has been Jets biggest problem, although oddly I'd say it's not as severe as previous years... Like in 2011-12 Jets were above league average team for all results but sv%... but now people are talking... back then I got in trouble for saying stuff

Which is why I find it very interesting people are starting to notice now.

 

[Sixty Minute Man]

That's an interesting option that I haven't heard talked about much. Could a goaltending coach change make a difference? I'm not too familiar with how they impact performance.

Unfortunately, goalie coaches, historically have very little impact on Goalies. Something like .04% +/-. I'm not sure how many fewer goals that would translate into for Pavelec over a season. Maybe it would help a little?

 

[Mathmew Purrrr Oh]

Unfortunately, goalie coaches, historically have very little impact on Goalies. Something like .04% +/-. I'm not sure how many fewer goals that would translate into for Pavelec over a season. Maybe it would help a little?

goalie coaches =/= team systems but ok

 

[Sixty Minute Man]

goalie coaches =/= team systems but ok

http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2013...nders-statistical-team-effects-ondrej-pavelec

"The best defensive-minded coaches improved their goaltenders by 0.004 and 0.006 save percentage and even that seems to be predominately due to "luck" (ie: variance) than anything else."