Making sense of junior hockey stats

Discussion in 'NHL Draft - Prospects' started by stickglovesshirt, Jun 24, 2011.

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  1. stickglovesshirt

    stickglovesshirt Registered User

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    Can some one please shed some more light on how junior hockey numbers translate in ahl/nhl numbers? I know this is a vague and difficult question to ask but from the outside looking in, it seems like there are a lot of goals scored in Canadian Junior hockey. Is it to the point where someone the gaudy numbers are skewed? (my best examples are some examples I think of are Tyler Seigun 2 years ago and Ryan Murphy this year) I understand Seigun because he was the only guy on his team that year. But it appears that Ryan Murphy has scored an awful lot of goals this year.

    Is there any type of analysis someone can provide? Where does this year in junior hockey rank vs others? Are there any other players that Murphy can be compared to? If so, what were the other variables that need to be noted when comparing and contrasting the two players?

    I have read a lot and watched a few videos. But I have not really seen a comprehensive analysis done on him. I know the strengths and I am well aware of the weaknesses (strength, size, character?)

    Thanks!
     
  2. FireBurningBin

    FireBurningBin please

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    CHL stats only seem to transfer to the NHL well if your an elite player

    Most players are still developing, so a players abilities says just as much
     
  3. Kekumba

    Kekumba Registered User

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    Corey Locke - Reg. 66GP 63G 88A 151PTS | Post. 23GP 19G 19A 38PTS

    113th overall, career AHL'er.
     
  4. Talks to Goalposts

    Talks to Goalposts Registered User

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    Search for NHLE and behindthenet.ca. The guy did a fairly good study on it.

    In brief, on average a player that makes the jump from the CHL to NHL will on average retain about 29% of his offensive production at the NHL level. Meanwhile a player going from the AHL to NHL would on average achieve something like 44%.

    This is off course highly variable from player to player. The transition is unique to each player. But if you want to know what happens on average, there you go. Players of course will usually progress until they reach their offensive peak which is typically around age 23-24 but again each player is different.
     
  5. stickglovesshirt

    stickglovesshirt Registered User

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    Thank you very much. The above helps a lot.

    I also pose this to other people...

    Let's compare it to college football. The two are pretty similar.

    Because he is a good example, let's use Ryan Murphy's numbers…. Did he put these up in the SEC (for those that don't know, the South East Conference is year in and year out the top college football conference. It gets the best players, the best coaches, best systems and teams to be on.
     
  6. DoYouBeleaf

    DoYouBeleaf Registered User

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    If you aren't Elite, stats really mean nothing in the CHL. John Mitchell put up decent numbers in the OHL and look how good is he is.
     
  7. Dempsey

    Dempsey Registered User

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    Corey Locke was passed over once in the draft. His true draft season he put up 43 points.
     
  8. Ogopogo*

    Ogopogo* Guest

    There is no correlation between CHL production and NHL production. Some players grow, develop and become the player they need to be at the NHL level and some do not.

    There are lots of 150+ point CHL seasons that translated to a cup of coffee or less in the NHL while others successfully make the jump and put up 100 points at the NHL. It is completely hard to judge, it is on a player to player basis.
     
  9. Kekumba

    Kekumba Registered User

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    Cool, but wasn't really the point. He had two absolutely insane junior seasons and will amount to nothing because of some flaws in his game...was the point.
     
  10. jigsaw99

    jigsaw99 Registered User

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    He's also 5'9 and 175 pounds...
     
  11. Paxon

    Paxon ⚔Z E M G U S⚔

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    Too much has to do with role as well. Every team in the CHL has guys putting up huge numbers because someone has to score points on each team. A scoring star with many deficiencies is going to end up as an AHL scoring star. A guy with a complete game who puts up big numbers may end up a 3rd line two-way player.

    They stats are basically useless unless you're analyzing them in a context of how the player's skills project to the next level.
     
  12. LeftCoast

    LeftCoast Registered User

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    But this is an important distinction. A players stature and physical maturity are really important.

    A player who turns 18 in January and is 6'4" and 220lb, if he has any skill at all, SHOULD dominate in a league with 16 and 17 year olds, many of whom are under 5'9" and barely tip the scales at 160lbs. Players with birthdays in the first 3 months of the year have an advantage when the draft cutoff is September.

    By 20 (or later) years, these factors start to even out. Take Kyle Turris for instance. I still think he is going to be a very good NHLer, but while he had a phenomenal skill set at 18, he is only starting to have the strength necessary to play an 82 game season in the NHL.

    That's why I am extremely skeptical of guys who are drafted high based on their size and physicality, who put up decent numbers in Junior, but have very raw or missing skill sets. I think this is the primary reason for the high washout rate for power forwards. Size and strength is enough to dominate in junior, but you need NHL skill to play in the NHL.

    I'm sure you could statistically control for some of these factors - maybe is you had all players Body Mass Index, height, weight and birthdays, you could produce a regression model that would not be so heavily skewed by early developers and birthdays.
     

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