Speculation: Making cap for next year

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Sure, name them.

Let's also put a timeframe of 4 years on it since the cap/salaries have dramatically increased.

Don’t tell me what to do, I’m just trying to help. Cap
Increasing is accounted for though in %. Players have made a percentage of each other since the cap was introduced so we’re still in even territory.

What players match Marners production criteria?

 

[BM14]

Don’t tell me what to do, I’m just trying to help.

What players match Marners production criteria?

You ask for validation for your proposed criteria, then get defensive. Yikes.

You intimated that you have comparables in mind. Put your cards on the table.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

You ask for validation for your proposed criteria, then get defensive. Yikes.

You intimated that you have comparables in mind. Put your cards on the table.

You told me to “Name them”. I never intimated I have then in mind, I’m just establishing criteria and I might later today if I find time. However you’re quite sure about your claim so surely you have some in mind?

 

[MagicalRazor]

Ron Hansey + Jake Gardiner = 7M of cap space Seattle willl pay their 500M which will raise the cap additional 3-4 M

So thats 10 M in cap space we good

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

You ask for validation for your proposed criteria, then get defensive. Yikes.

You intimated that you have comparables in mind. Put your cards on the table.

Quickest guess that comes to mind is Patrick Kane, whose PPG number after his ELC was lower than what Marner has been doing last 70 games or so. He signed at 11% of the cap which is substantially higher than our lower bound here. That would put Marner perhaps around $9m on a $85m cap. So $8m+ seems like a reasonable ballpark based on that comparable. Also worth noting that it was a 5yr contract. I haven’t dug into the details but it’s possibly it ONLY bought RFA years, leaving Kane an UFA after.

Have you found any other comparables yet?

 

[Puckstuff]

How you gonna start a thread like this and not show your work? With cap friendly it should be pretty easy to do...

OP is lazy. But most importantly so inaccurate.

 

[Advanced stats]

How'd we magically get Miller? 1st off and Kapenen will get more then 2.5. It wont work

It says in the post man..

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

You ask for validation for your proposed criteria, then get defensive. Yikes.

You intimated that you have comparables in mind. Put your cards on the table.

Just looked up Jeff Skinner as a second quick comparison of a high profile young-ish winger that would have been signed in the cap era. He was signed in 2012 @ 9.54% of the cap. That would put him at $8.1m if he signed that contract today, and his production is quite a bit less than Marner. I'd say Marner is a comparable one would use to say "He would obviously get more than that".

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

You ask for validation for your proposed criteria, then get defensive. Yikes.

You intimated that you have comparables in mind. Put your cards on the table.

Taylor Hall came to mind just after my previous post. He signed in 2013 for 10% cap hit, that would put him at $8.5m AAV and Marner's numbers leading up to the end of this season could be a bit better.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

You ask for validation for your proposed criteria, then get defensive. Yikes.

You intimated that you have comparables in mind. Put your cards on the table.

Mark Stone, after a 3yr contract where he put up PPG only in his final year, commanded a 9.25% cap hit, 1yr contract that buys a single RFA year (I think that must have been an arbitration case, yes?). That brings him just a smidge under $8m. Marner is putting up over PPG in our case and is just coming off his ELC. His arbitration-eligible RFA years must be worth more than $8m by that comparable, no? Even more if we want to buy UFA years.

I think I've seen enough now, convinced Marner will get over $8m, and if we get him at $8m long term that's a f***ing steal IMO. Would be interesting which ones you had in mind when you said Marner wouldn't crack $8m, though.

 

[Jack Bauer]

Ron Hansey + Jake Gardiner = 7M of cap space Seattle willl pay their 500M which will raise the cap additional 3-4 M

So thats 10 M in cap space we good

It doesn't work that way.

That $500 isn't HRR. It's a direct payment to current ownership. It's Seattle revenue that will increase the cap, but with that means you're giving up 1/32nd of all current revenue from things like TV deals to them as well.

The cap went up $2 mil with Vegas entering the league and $4.5 mil for year 2.

 

[Jack Bauer]

So I did the math awhile back.

Matthew's 12
Marner 8 to 9
Nylander 7 (cap saved 6.68)

Even at an 85mill cap we would be over by 6 or 7mill. That's with no Jake, no Kapenen and so on.

It's clear we need to let some guys walk or trade (goat, leivo, johnsson) there will be casualties of having elite players. But whom?

I think outside the obvious, then Kapenen and Dermott. Anyone is fair game

Why isn't our GM making the moves to stay under then?

Even the dumbest GM's will see the obvious ways around our "cap issues" as some of them are built in to the types of contracts we've signed.

Here's an example: This year Marleau (6.25), Kapanen(865K), and Johnsson(787K) take up almost $8 mil in cap space.

Next year using this example: Marleau (1), Kapanen (4), Johnsson (1.5) we could have the same trio and save $1.5 million with the only work needed to get there being flipping Marleau to someone to buy him out so we can re-sign him for less.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

We have to figure it out CAP next couple years until we can get rid of this CAP system and put a better luxury tax soft CAP system in place so teams can still chose to ice quality teams because they have money franchises. And the weaker teams which Bettman has put in place can also ice teams. Seattle big money ownership with help raise the CAP next season and hopefully large enough so we can sign all our key guys. We need to figure things out until the CBA expires.

 

[Holymakinaw]

The big question mark is whether Marleau waves after July 1st and gets traded to a cap floor team since he only needs to be paid like $1 million in real dollars after his bonus kicks in. That would basically solve all our problems.

Why would Marleau waive his NMC to be traded to a crap team? Just to "be a good guy and help the 'ol Leafs"? LOL.

 

[apollo678]

I'd say that we can't really worry about future cap until we establish what we really have on defense.
Can a D core made up of Rielly, Gardiner, Zaitsev and Dermott win a Cup?
If we flame out this year then probably Gardiner is gone (convenient that he is a UFA) and Zaitsev too.

The forward core is so much easier to imagine (Matthews, Nylander, Marner, Tavares, Kadri, Kapanen?, Hyman?)

 

[PuckMagi]

Why would Marleau waive his NMC to be traded to a crap team? Just to "be a good guy and help the 'ol Leafs"? LOL.

I had always assumed this was a handshake deal when we signed him... but I am starting to think that maybe I gave Lou too much credit.

 

[I am Canadian]

Hainsey is done after this yr. Too slow. Kap will get 4 to 4.5. If my numbers are right with cap at 85 we are over but depends what we do with rfa and ufas

Okay then if we don't resign Hainsey we can easily fit Kapanen who I doubt will get that much.

You are nit picking things that are like 1,2, or 3 million in cap spendings.

Show your math, it's obviously not correct if I just posted one that's like 10 million less.

 

[member 147413]

Brown and Zaitsev are going to be moved imo

 

[Fogelhund]

Brown and Zaitsev are going to be moved imo

Zaitsev can't be moved, unless we have adequate replacements, which at the moment, we don't.

 

[mashedpotato]

if the leafs trade Nylander for an RHD, I dont see why we wouldnt trade Zaitsev, someone will take him for picks which we can partially flip for a solid, cheaper top 4D

Any Defenceman the Leafs trade Nylander for , should be valued close to 6-7m. Anything less, and I'd say we got the bad end of that deal.

 

[mashedpotato]

Brown and Zaitsev are going to be moved imo

I don't see Zaitsev being moved unless the Leafs provide incentive to do so. Brown, is extremely serviceable and would be dissapointed to see him traded unless it's for a clear upgrade.

 

[member 147413]

Zaitsev can't be moved, unless we have adequate replacements, which at the moment, we don't.

I believe other moves will be made to acquire adequate replacements.

 

[Fogelhund]

Any Defenceman the Leafs trade Nylander for , should be valued close to 6-7m. Anything less, and I'd say we got the bad end of that deal.

That would be false.

 

[Fogelhund]

I believe other moves will be made to acquire adequate replacements.

I certainly do hope so.

 

[BlueForever75]

I do not get what all the hate is on Zaitsev. I have seen him play solid hockey for the first quarter of the season. The team as a whole has played very good hockey. And I am surprised defensively how the team has played. Shots are down, more blocked shots, and better exits. If Zaitsev continues to play as he is, the contract he signed is a bargain. The only upgrade we should be looking for on D is replacing Hainsey long term. Zaitsev is a perfect 2nd/3rd pairing D man.