TequilaBay
Registered User
- May 30, 2019
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Since the Steam Deck was announced, many gamers are jumping on the bandwagon of calling this new portable PC the "Switch Killer". Many other gamers disagree with this notion, some of them out of an emotional stake and wanting to defend Nintendo, others without an emotional stake with a more rational explanation.
Common arguments against the notion of the Steam Deck being the "Switch Killer" include that the Switch's audience is mostly casual, that the Steam Deck can only appeal to PC gamers, that the Steam Deck can only appeal to hardcore gamers, amongst others. These are all valid points in their own rights, but there's one certain argument against the notion of the Steam Deck being a "Switch Killer" which I subscribe to that I feel people aren't looking into, and I think I might as well be the one to address it;
Primary reason the Steam Deck isn't the "Switch Killer" - It came out too late to compete with the Switch long term.
If the Steam Deck had released in 2017 or 2018 with the same technical specs, then arguments for the Steam Deck being a "Switch Killer" would certainly be far more valid as it would be competing against the Switch long term.
But a December 2021 release is only going to make competition against the Switch a short term goal.
The Switch is already nearing the final few chapters of its life cycle as it is, regardless of what the Steam Deck does. By the time the Steam Deck releases, the Switch will be almost 5 years old. The SNES was 5 years old when the N64 succeeded it, the N64 was 5 years old when the Gamecube succeeded it, and the Gamecube was 5 years old when the Wii succeeded it, a 5 year lifespan was an unwritten rule for Nintendo for three generational leaps, and a case could be made that the Wii to the Wii U would've also followed this trend if it weren't for the Recession, given how lackluster 2011 was for Wii releases. Now, the Switch will most definitely not follow that pattern, as we shouldn't get a successor to the Switch by March of 2022, but it's still worth pointing out as it indicates the Switch is nearing the end of its lifecycle, and I would expect a Switch successor to be announced by E3 2022, or E3 2023 at the VERY latest, with a presumed release date for this new console to be around the 2023 Holiday Season.
The Steam Deck, as impressive as it is, will not be able to explode in the gaming market immediately. It will take until 2023 at the earliest before the Steam Deck will truly start reaching out of the compounds of the PC and hardcore gaming markets. That would be the earliest they could drop the price of the console and be able to truly market the thing to more casual and mid-level gamers outside of the bubble already enthused about it. The gamers outside of Valve's already established bubble are not going to splurge $400 for a console with a gaming interface they're not familiar with, a further price drop will be essential to making the Steam Deck reach out to other pockets of the gaming industry, and I couldn't see that happening until 2023 at the earliest. Once again, by 2023, the successor to the Switch should be at least announced, if not released, the Switch will already be last generation hardware by then.
Now, can the Steam Deck compete against the Switch's successor, or blow it out of the water? Absolutely, if Nintendo doesn't play their cards right with it. Nintendo does have an advantage with the casual market right now, but they can certainly lose if they don't market its successor correctly. The Switch was successful, but so was the Wii, but the Wii U was not, and there's a chance the Switch's successor may not be as well. It depends on what the console is.
If they copy Steam and try to make another portable gaming PC, with backwards compatibility with Switch carts as a bonus and maybe carts for its own games as well, that could easily backfire against them as they'd have to entice a crowd that doesn't care about graphics or performance that still feels the Switch is all they need.
Their best chance of action could be to make their own smartphone or tablet with Switch backwards compatibility and continue avoiding competition with the likes of Sony, Microsoft, and Valve, but how that would all work out, I wouldn't have a clue.
But either way, there it is.
The Steam Deck is not the "Switch Killer", because it can only compete with the Switch short term, the same way the Sega Genesis competed against the NES, before two years later when the SNES came out.
The Switch is an 8th Gen console in its twilight years, while the Steam Deck is a 9th Gen console that's not even out yet.
Common arguments against the notion of the Steam Deck being the "Switch Killer" include that the Switch's audience is mostly casual, that the Steam Deck can only appeal to PC gamers, that the Steam Deck can only appeal to hardcore gamers, amongst others. These are all valid points in their own rights, but there's one certain argument against the notion of the Steam Deck being a "Switch Killer" which I subscribe to that I feel people aren't looking into, and I think I might as well be the one to address it;
Primary reason the Steam Deck isn't the "Switch Killer" - It came out too late to compete with the Switch long term.
If the Steam Deck had released in 2017 or 2018 with the same technical specs, then arguments for the Steam Deck being a "Switch Killer" would certainly be far more valid as it would be competing against the Switch long term.
But a December 2021 release is only going to make competition against the Switch a short term goal.
The Switch is already nearing the final few chapters of its life cycle as it is, regardless of what the Steam Deck does. By the time the Steam Deck releases, the Switch will be almost 5 years old. The SNES was 5 years old when the N64 succeeded it, the N64 was 5 years old when the Gamecube succeeded it, and the Gamecube was 5 years old when the Wii succeeded it, a 5 year lifespan was an unwritten rule for Nintendo for three generational leaps, and a case could be made that the Wii to the Wii U would've also followed this trend if it weren't for the Recession, given how lackluster 2011 was for Wii releases. Now, the Switch will most definitely not follow that pattern, as we shouldn't get a successor to the Switch by March of 2022, but it's still worth pointing out as it indicates the Switch is nearing the end of its lifecycle, and I would expect a Switch successor to be announced by E3 2022, or E3 2023 at the VERY latest, with a presumed release date for this new console to be around the 2023 Holiday Season.
The Steam Deck, as impressive as it is, will not be able to explode in the gaming market immediately. It will take until 2023 at the earliest before the Steam Deck will truly start reaching out of the compounds of the PC and hardcore gaming markets. That would be the earliest they could drop the price of the console and be able to truly market the thing to more casual and mid-level gamers outside of the bubble already enthused about it. The gamers outside of Valve's already established bubble are not going to splurge $400 for a console with a gaming interface they're not familiar with, a further price drop will be essential to making the Steam Deck reach out to other pockets of the gaming industry, and I couldn't see that happening until 2023 at the earliest. Once again, by 2023, the successor to the Switch should be at least announced, if not released, the Switch will already be last generation hardware by then.
Now, can the Steam Deck compete against the Switch's successor, or blow it out of the water? Absolutely, if Nintendo doesn't play their cards right with it. Nintendo does have an advantage with the casual market right now, but they can certainly lose if they don't market its successor correctly. The Switch was successful, but so was the Wii, but the Wii U was not, and there's a chance the Switch's successor may not be as well. It depends on what the console is.
If they copy Steam and try to make another portable gaming PC, with backwards compatibility with Switch carts as a bonus and maybe carts for its own games as well, that could easily backfire against them as they'd have to entice a crowd that doesn't care about graphics or performance that still feels the Switch is all they need.
Their best chance of action could be to make their own smartphone or tablet with Switch backwards compatibility and continue avoiding competition with the likes of Sony, Microsoft, and Valve, but how that would all work out, I wouldn't have a clue.
But either way, there it is.
The Steam Deck is not the "Switch Killer", because it can only compete with the Switch short term, the same way the Sega Genesis competed against the NES, before two years later when the SNES came out.
The Switch is an 8th Gen console in its twilight years, while the Steam Deck is a 9th Gen console that's not even out yet.
