Series Discussion: (M1) Washington Capitals vs (WC1) Columbus Blue Jackets

[StrikingDistance]

I'm not his agent. Keep throwing him under the bus all you want but don't be surprised if someone calls out your bull****.

Regular season doesn't really matter when the Playoffs starts, you of all people as a Caps fan should know that. Holtby has 4 career Playoffs games where his SV % is below 85. In 59 games. Grubauer's two Playoff starts are .857 and .852. But hey, Holtby is the reason they have never made it past the 2nd round and Grubauer has been fine and the team around him just sucks, right?

I never said Holtby is the savior. I just said that Grubauer isn't that either.

Not my BS. You're the pro-Holt3 guy on here. I really don't care. I'm pro-'ride the hot goalie'. Holt3 was not it. If you want to hold Grubi 100% accountable on the 4 goals from G1, then fine. Reality is, we can pick apart each goal and allocate accountability to at least 2 to 4 people on each. However, if we can only get 5 shots on net in the 3rd in G1 in the playoffs, then you're focussing on the wrong problem.

ps I would say Holt3's playoff performance last year was a big reason we didn't get past the Pens (besides Kuzy going ice cold).

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

With Gruby in net, we have no chance in this series, he reminds me of Neuvirth. They OT goal was horrible.

Off the crossbar and in is horrible?

Horrible was the D play by Orlov on that goal.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I'm not his agent. Keep throwing him under the bus all you want but don't be surprised if someone calls out your bull****.

Regular season doesn't really matter when the Playoffs starts, you of all people as a Caps fan should know that. Holtby has 4 career Playoffs games where his SV % is below 85. In 59 games. Grubauer's two Playoff starts are .857 and .852. But hey, Holtby is the reason they have never made it past the 2nd round and Grubauer has been fine and the team around him just sucks, right?

I never said Holtby is the savior. I just said that Grubauer isn't that either.

Now that we’ve established neither goalie is “the savior”, maybe we can move on?

 

[trick9]

Not my BS. You're the pro-Holt3 guy on here. I really don't care. I'm pro-'ride the hot goalie'. Holt3 was not it. If you want to hold Grubi 100% accountable on the 4 goals from G1, then fine. Reality is, we can pick apart each goal and allocate accountability to at least 2 to 4 people on each. However, if we can only get 5 shots on net in the 3rd in G1 in the playoffs, then you're focussing on the wrong problem.

ps I would say Holt3's playoff performance last year was a big reason we didn't get past the Pens (besides Kuzy going ice cold).

Yes because people are using the craziest arguments to throw him under the bus. Arguments like Holtby is the reason why Grubauer didn't get wins early on this season. That's just ridiculous.

I didn't disagree that Holtby was terrible against the Penguins. Just saying that if people want to trade a player after a bad playoff series then there won't be anyone left to play.

The standards for them are pretty different, and that propably tells you what people expect of them. Grubauer plays like that and the comments are ''he was fine'', ''he was solid'', ''grade B''. If Holtby has performance like that it's ''playoff choker'', ''trade him'' and ''Hol4by''.

 

[trick9]

Now that we’ve established neither goalie is “the savior”, maybe we can move on?

Sure.

 

[ujju2]

There’s a reason why casinos make money off this mindset. I would avoid them if I were you.

It's not blind belief. I'm basing this on history. The best example I can give you right now is Fleury. Good goalies don't stay bad for very long, let alone great ones like Holtby. I think he's given this team enough to deserve a start here. If Trotz truly thinks he has two good goalies, then he should be putting the other one in after a loss with 4GA. I'm not putting that on Gruby, but I think Holtby has stolen multiple playoff games and can do it again.

 

[ujju2]

Not my BS. You're the pro-Holt3 guy on here. I really don't care. I'm pro-'ride the hot goalie'. Holt3 was not it. If you want to hold Grubi 100% accountable on the 4 goals from G1, then fine. Reality is, we can pick apart each goal and allocate accountability to at least 2 to 4 people on each. However, if we can only get 5 shots on net in the 3rd in G1 in the playoffs, then you're focussing on the wrong problem.

ps I would say Holt3's playoff performance last year was a big reason we didn't get past the Pens (besides Kuzy going ice cold).

Must have missed the three postseasons prior...

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Must have missed the three postseasons prior...

I thought he had mediocre games 3, 4, and 7 in 2016 against the Pens as well as last year. Who cares though...water under the bridge at this point.

If they don't win tonight, I think you have to start Holtby on the road and roll the dice.

 

[ujju2]

I just think Holtby is more likely to steal a game than Gruby is. Maybe Gruby is the safe choice, idk. But Holtby, when on his game, is matched by very few goalies in the league.

 

[Ajax1995]

Off the crossbar and in is horrible?

Horrible was the D play by Orlov on that goal.

That is pretty much the way I saw it also.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I just think Holtby is more likely to steal a game than Gruby is. Maybe Gruby is the safe choice, idk. But Holtby, when on his game, is matched by very few goalies in the league.

Totally agree...it's just been hard to find his game that reaches that level.

 

[Ajax1995]

Holtby has 4 career Playoffs games where his SV % is below 85. In 59 games. Grubauer's two Playoff starts are .857 and .852.

So if I am understanding this correctly Grubauer has zero playoff games where his Save % is below 85.

Why did you pick 85 as the threshold for Holtby’s I guess poor games statistically if Grubauer has never had a game that fell into that category, regardless of how close? Does Holtby have a bunch of games that fell between 85 and 86 or something? If so your argument is very disingenuous and you know it and if it isn’t why didn’t you just pick 86 as your line in the sand?

 

[trick9]

So if I am understanding this correctly Grubauer has zero playoff games where his Save % is below 85.

Why did you pick 85 as the threshold for Holtby’s I guess poor games statistically if Grubauer has never had a game that fell into that category, regardless of how close? Does Holtby have a bunch of games that fell between 85 and 86 or something? If so your argument is very disingenuous and you know it and if it isn’t why didn’t you just pick 86 as your line in the sand?

I was lazy, nothing more about it really. HR carries a ''really bad start'' -stat for goalies and that's starts with below 85 SV%.

I didn't look at it game-by-game basis. You can take a look if Holtby has many games between 85-86 in his Playoff career but i highly doubt. Infact i don't think he has many below 90% starts in his Playoff career. Most of those are against Penguins.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I'd say sub-.900 is a fair mark to look at.

 

[RandyHolt]

Chiasson has become a fixture in our lineup. I thought he did ok last game but its just another cog in a Barry type team.

I am thinking a defensive struggle / under game tonight. Coin flip. A small part of me would love to see us lose and Barry build a speed lineup for game 3 that explodes and wins the series for us. Just don't wait until elimination games to try the obvious.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I was lazy, nothing more about it really. HR carries a ''really bad start'' -stat for goalies and that's starts with below 85 SV%.

I didn't look at it game-by-game basis. You can take a look if Holtby has many games between 85-86 in his Playoff career but i highly doubt. Infact i don't think he has many below 90% starts in his Playoff career. Most of those are against Penguins.

Braden Holtby Career Playoffs Game Log | Hockey-Reference.com

Holtby has 15 sub-.900 games in the playoffs and 59 total games. He also has 2 sub-.800 games among the 15.

Of the sub-.900, only 5 of those are against the Pens, 3 last year, 2 the year before.

2 - Boston
5 - Rangers
1 - Islanders
5 - Pens
2 - Leafs

Holtby is producing a sub-.900 game ~25% of his career starts in the postseason.

Is that good?

I honestly don't know, but he's shit the bed against arguably their two biggest rivals the most (Rags and Pens). If you look at just the last two years, he's delivered 7 sub-.900 games in 25 games, or ~28% of the time.

 

[maacoshark]

Sorry. The reason they’re in the POs is because of individual offensive talent. Holt3 was below average all year. Grubi has losses early on in the season because he relieved Holt3’s stinker games.

There’s a myriad of reasons the Caps lost G1, but it wasn’t because of Grubi.

When Grubauer replaced Holtby in those stinkers, Grubauer wasn't credited for the loss. Holtby got those losses. The only way Grubauer could get a loss was if the Caps tied the game or took the lead after Grubauer came in and then lost the lead again. That didn't happen in any if the games.
If anything Grubauer coming in relief in a game that was already out of hand probably helped inflate his numbers. When a team has a big lead like they they generally get their foot off the gas. Grubauer didn't get challenged much in those games.

 

[Lindemann]

Save % is a misleading stat. Holtby would stop 28/30 against the pens but at least one of them would be so anti-clutch/soft/in big moments and we could never recover

That’s the biggest problem with Holtby to me

 

[maacoshark]

Braden Holtby Career Playoffs Game Log | Hockey-Reference.com

Holtby has 15 sub-.900 games in the playoffs and 59 total games. He also has 2 sub-.800 games among the 15.

Of the sub-.900, only 5 of those are against the Pens, 3 last year, 2 the year before.

2 - Boston
5 - Rangers
1 - Islanders
5 - Pens
2 - Leafs

Holtby is producing a sub-.900 game ~25% of his career starts in the postseason.

Is that good?

I honestly don't know, but he's **** the bed against arguably their two biggest rivals the most (Rags and Pens).

OK sine like your stats so much. Why don't you do the same research for Grubauer? He has played in 3 career playoff games, 2 as a starter but he has never had a sv% over .900 in a playoff game.
Looking at Holtbys playoff numbers they are actually pretty good. He has given up 5 goals once and 4 goals 9 times. 49 times in 59 starts he has given up 3 or less. 4 of those were shutouts. His career GAA is 2.00 and sv% .932 and this is including his mediocre performance last season. For guys that like stats, those are very impressive stats.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

OK sine like your stats so much. Why don't you do the same research for Grubauer? He has played in 3 career playoff games, 2 as a starter but he has never had a sv% over .900 in a playoff game.
Looking at Holtbys playoff numbers they are actually pretty good. He has given up 5 goals once and 4 goals 9 times. 49 times in 59 starts he has given up 3 or less. 4 of those were shutouts. His career GAA is 2.00 and sv% .932 and this is including his mediocre performance last season. For guys that like stats, those are very impressive stats.

Go for it...we're talking playoffs, so the game history isn't there for Gruby to fairly compare. My stats were just to shed some light on Trick9's assertions about Holtby's playoff legend. I also believe he's been trending in the wrong direction for a few years.

 

[trick9]

Braden Holtby Career Playoffs Game Log | Hockey-Reference.com

Holtby has 15 sub-.900 games in the playoffs and 59 total games. He also has 2 sub-.800 games among the 15.

Of the sub-.900, only 5 of those are against the Pens, 3 last year, 2 the year before.

2 - Boston
5 - Rangers
1 - Islanders
5 - Pens
2 - Leafs

Holtby is producing a sub-.900 game ~25% of his career starts in the postseason.

Is that good?

I honestly don't know, but he's **** the bed against arguably their two biggest rivals the most (Rags and Pens). If you look at just the last two years, he's delivered 7 sub-.900 games in 25 games, or ~28% of the time.

I would say that's great. Obviously it matters where you have those bad games.

If you go by that sub 90 SV%, Henrik Lundqvist has 39 in his playoff career. In 128 games. Cory Crawford 25 in 87 games. Jonathan Quick 25 in 83 games. Carey Price 24 in 60 games. Tuukka Rask 17 in 55 games. Pekka Rinne 26 in 72 games. Sergei Bobrovsky 12 in 19 games.

Of course he has shit the bed the most against those 2 teams because they are constantly facing them. Either way checking those stats and going by game-on-game basis the Penguins are piercing every elite goalie one by one.

Another thing i noticed that very few goalies have long stretches of 90+ SV% in a row. For most guys it was just few games. The thing i noticed that Jonathan Quick during his insanely good Cup -run in '11-'12 had his first sub 90 game in the finals. It was Game 5 against the Devils and even in that game he had .895 and only allowed 2 goals there. That was his only one during those Playoffs.

 

[maacoshark]

Go for it...we're talking playoffs, so the game history isn't there for Gruby to fairly compare. My stats were just to shed some light on Trick9's assertions about Holtby's playoff legend. I also believe he's been trending in the wrong direction for a few years.

A few years? How do you figure? Holtby has been very good since he has been here. This year has been a but if a struggle for him.
I know stats don't tell you everything but Holtby gas very impressive stats in the regular season and playoffs. His struggles in the post season have been more about the lack of goals his dream has scored than his play. He doesn't get any goal support in the playoffs.

 

[HTFN]

There's no breakout and no real offensive cohesion. Offense reliant on the powerplay and individual efforts. Coach interview in game 1 was almost entirely focused on defense, said "we'll get our chances on offense". What chances?

Holtby, Grubauer, we can bicker about it all day but it probably won't matter. The Capitals are easy to plan against, slow to adapt, and generate practically no offense as it is. Ovechkin is getting focused down and nobody knows how to pick up the slack. Players aren't moving their feet on the boards, and they show time and time again that they don't really know how to anticipate where to be. Even their cycle game is largely reactive.

These aren't new problems, but they're intensely magnified at the moment. A team apparently reliant on great individual efforts is also coaching them out of its players.

 

[RandyHolt]

Perhaps our scorers will to score would deflate after giving up an early soft goal in a critical game. Aaron Asham rings a bell. We don't do well in game 7s period, and certainly not after giving up an early goal.

 

[Brian23]

At the time I'd generally compare Tim Thomas to Holtby, and ole Timmy had 12 games out of 51 where he had sub-.900 in the playoffs. That's 23.5% of games for Thomas and 25.4% of games for Holtby.

And, for the umpteenth time, Holtby hasn't been garbage all year. It started around the new year but to star the season he was carrying the team. Go and look at the GDT's and how much he was bailing the teams collective asses out of the fire.