Lundqvist, Miller, Toivonen, Niitymaki

[The Sanchise]

And BTW, the correct winning %'s are:

Lundquist: 73.7%
Miller: 71.4%
Toivonen: 64.3%
Nittymaki: 58.6%

I took the number of points won, divided by the points available in the games where the goalie got the decision. It's not correct to count the games that Weekes got shelled against Lundquist as he's played in 10 games where he didn't get the decision.

Other goalies winning %:

Weekes: 52.4%
Biron: 72.0%
Thomas/Raycroft: 40.9%
Esche: 66.7%

Hold on, I'm personally done with this debate though it was very fun. I wouldn't mind a few of you to come down to Niagara Falls, Ontario and be on my public access show about sports when i start it up.

Anyways are you sure that is how you do winning percentage because I did it by dividing the number of wins by the number of games played???

You can't do it by points is what i thought because this is a winning perrcentage and you factor in ot losses when you do points.

 

[Buffalo87]

Funny how biaised this thread is, I think I never had so much fun matching the comments with the locations/teams.

Haha, yes this is getting ridiculous, extremely biased. By the way, I love your avatar.

 

[Kodiak]

As I'm pretty sure you'll say Lundqvist will be the best... Funny how biaised this thread is, I think I never had so much fun matching the comments with the locations/teams.

Did I say who I thought the best of the group was? No. I was attacking his reasoning because it was nothing more than Niittymaki will be better because he plays for the Flyers. Some posters actually come up with reasoned analyses and arguments and I don't have any issue with them, regardless of the final result. So don't put words in my mouth.

 

[BringBackHakstol]

call me crazy but out of the 5+ (i realize this isnt a huge sample size) games ive seen lehtonen play, he was close to awful. Might be luck of the draw on the games ive seen, but he seems vastly overrated

id say it goes like this
1) lundqvist
2) niitymaki / miller
4) toivonen

i left out the other guys as the thread asked.

 

[Puck Dogg]

After seeing more games from Lundqvist, Niittymaki and Miller I must admit that Lundqvist is the best of these guys clearly. He is going to be a good starter for Rangers in following years. He will set a record for a most wins for rookie goalie in Ranger shirt and that is something you cannot underestimate. I would rather have Miller than Niittymaki at this moment, but they are close. Currently there is a space between these three and Toivonen.

Out of the list I must admit that Lehtonen is not living up his promise. He was injured for a long period, so he is not showing his full potential.

 

[KreiMeARiver*]

Worst. List. Ever.

I'm a Flyers fan, but Niittymaki over Lehtonen? No chance in hell.

As for the four that the original poster was talking about, Lundqvist is clearly first for now and I have no reason to think he wouldn't be first in the future as well. As for Miller/Toivonen/Niittymaki, I basically think its a crapshoot and they could very likely end up in any order. Out of those three, I would take Niittymaki though, as he has had a history of coming up big in big games. As a Flyers fan, I'm used to the opposite, so its difficult for me to take another goaltender of comparable skill over a goaltender who's been nothing but clutch in his career thus far.

Ranking these four, plus Lehtonen and Fleury:

1. Lehtonen
2. Lundqvist
3. Fleury
4a. Niittymaki
4b. Miller
4c. Toivonen

The top three are clearly heads and shoulders above the others, while Lehtonen has the potential to be heads and shoulders above everybody.

yeah, sure he does...

"head and shoulders" lol riiiiigggggghhhttt

 

[KH1]

Color me a homer but I'm surprised that hardly anybody is bringing Rick DiPietro into this discussion. Since the Olympic break he has been playing as well or better than any of the 4 goalies listed here and despite having more experience he is actually younger than Miller or Niitymaki. Just food for thought

From the list you gave I would rank them

Lundqvist (Although I am an Isles fan I have no problem saying that Henrik is an amazing young talent)
Toivonen
Miller
Niitymaki

 

[Piggish]

Toivonen versus Miller, a statistical comparison

As per NHL.com:

[FONT=Courier New]Hannu Toivonen (born May 18, 1984):
Season          Team    GP	MIN	W	L	T	GA	SA	SO	GA Avg	SV %
2005-2006       Bruins  20	1,162	9	5	0	51	590	1	2.63	.914
NHL Totals:             20	1,162	9	5	0	51	590	1	2.63	.914

Ryan Miller (born Jul 17, 1980):
Season		Team	GP	MIN	W	L	T	GA	SA	SO	GA Avg	SV %
2005-2006	Sabres 	41	2,457	25	12	0	107	1,224	0	2.61	.913
2003-2004	Sabres 	3	177	0	3	0	15	73	0	5.06	.795
2002-2003	Sabres 	15	912	6	8	1	40	410	1	2.63	.902
NHL Totals:		59	3,547	31	23	1	162	1,707	1	2.74	.905[/FONT]

The sample size for Toivonen's statistics is, alas, still small although he has played more games than Miller had at the same age. This introduces a rather sizeable degree of doubt to any comparison. However, Toivonen's season (and career) save percentage is better than Miller's season and career save percentages. Playing behind a worse defense than Miller - does anyone disagree? - Toivonen has roughly matched Miller's season GAA. If Miller is clearly better than Toivonen as some have asserted, what accounts for these numbers?

 

[Buffalo87]

As per NHL.com:

[FONT=Courier New]Hannu Toivonen (born May 18, 1984):
Season          Team    GP	MIN	W	L	T	GA	SA	SO	GA Avg	SV %
2005-2006       Bruins  20	1,162	9	5	0	51	590	1	2.63	.914
NHL Totals:             20	1,162	9	5	0	51	590	1	2.63	.914

Ryan Miller (born Jul 17, 1980):
Season		Team	GP	MIN	W	L	T	GA	SA	SO	GA Avg	SV %
2005-2006	Sabres 	41	2,457	25	12	0	107	1,224	0	2.61	.913
2003-2004	Sabres 	3	177	0	3	0	15	73	0	5.06	.795
2002-2003	Sabres 	15	912	6	8	1	40	410	1	2.63	.902
NHL Totals:		59	3,547	31	23	1	162	1,707	1	2.74	.905[/FONT]

The sample size for Toivonen's statistics is, alas, still small although he has played more games than Miller had at the same age. This introduces a rather sizeable degree of doubt to any comparison. However, Toivonen's season (and career) save percentage is better than Miller's season and career save percentages. Playing behind a worse defense than Miller - does anyone disagree? - Toivonen has roughly matched Miller's season GAA. If Miller is clearly better than Toivonen as some have asserted, what accounts for these numbers?

Sure, it's easy to say this after Miller has a rough stretch of 2 or 3 weeks. Right after the all-star break when Miller had a sv% of .924 and gaa of 2.40, we wouldn't even be having this conversation. What accounts for these numbers is simply the fact that Toivonen has only played 20 games and you did this comparison when Miller is in the middle of the worst slump of his career.

 

[Joe MacMillan]

Sure, it's easy to say this after Miller has a rough stretch of 2 or 3 weeks. Right after the all-star break when Miller had a sv% of .924 and gaa of 2.40, we wouldn't even be having this conversation. What accounts for these numbers is simply the fact that Toivonen has only played 20 games and you did this comparison when Miller is in the middle of the worst slump of his career.

Yeah, but some people are saying Toivonen doesn't have any potential to be an elite goaltender. He's the youngest goalie of the four and has posted very good numbers considering the defence he's playing behind, all I can say he has the potential to be a very good goalie.

And people are calling him overrated.

 

[Buffalo87]

Yeah, but some people are saying Toivonen doesn't have any potential to be an elite goaltender. He's the youngest goalie of the four and has posted very good numbers considering the defence he's playing behind, all I can say he has the potential to be a very good goalie.

Absolutely, no doubt about it. I think he'll be a great goalie, I just don't think he'll ever be as good as Lundqvist (neither will Miller or Niittymaki)
.

 

[The Sanchise]

As per NHL.com:

[FONT=Courier New]Hannu Toivonen (born May 18, 1984):
Season          Team    GP	MIN	W	L	T	GA	SA	SO	GA Avg	SV %
2005-2006       Bruins  20	1,162	9	5	0	51	590	1	2.63	.914
NHL Totals:             20	1,162	9	5	0	51	590	1	2.63	.914

Ryan Miller (born Jul 17, 1980):
Season		Team	GP	MIN	W	L	T	GA	SA	SO	GA Avg	SV %
2005-2006	Sabres 	41	2,457	25	12	0	107	1,224	0	2.61	.913
2003-2004	Sabres 	3	177	0	3	0	15	73	0	5.06	.795
2002-2003	Sabres 	15	912	6	8	1	40	410	1	2.63	.902
NHL Totals:		59	3,547	31	23	1	162	1,707	1	2.74	.905[/FONT]

The sample size for Toivonen's statistics is, alas, still small although he has played more games than Miller had at the same age. This introduces a rather sizeable degree of doubt to any comparison. However, Toivonen's season (and career) save percentage is better than Miller's season and career save percentages. Playing behind a worse defense than Miller - does anyone disagree? - Toivonen has roughly matched Miller's season GAA. If Miller is clearly better than Toivonen as some have asserted, what accounts for these numbers?

What accounts for this is in Millers two years where he played 15 games and 3 games he played behind a ;lousy team with one of the leagues worst defenses than this year his stats werwe outstanding until this litle stretch

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

Sure, it's easy to say this after Miller has a rough stretch of 2 or 3 weeks. Right after the all-star break when Miller had a sv% of .924 and gaa of 2.40, we wouldn't even be having this conversation. What accounts for these numbers is simply the fact that Toivonen has only played 20 games and you did this comparison when Miller is in the middle of the worst slump of his career.

Don't all goalies have bad stretches? Do you get to exclude the last 6 games when Miller has gotten torched because he was "playing bad"? Are you going to exclude Millers 6 best games because he was "playing good"? Somehow I doubt it.

I will be the first to agree that Toivonen hasn't played in enough games to say that he's as good or better than Miller. I would say though that HT's stat's (on a much worse defensive team) at least raise the POSSIBILITY that he will be as good or better than Miller, an idea that seemed enrage certain BUFF posters.

 

[Buffalo87]

Don't all goalies have bad stretches? Do you get to exclude the last 6 games when Miller has gotten torched because he was "playing bad"? Are you going to exclude Millers 6 best games because he was "playing good"? Somehow I doubt it.

I will be the first to agree that Toivonen hasn't played in enough games to say that he's as good or better than Miller. I would say though that HT's stat's (on a much worse defensive team) at least raise the POSSIBILITY that he will be as good or better than Miller, an idea that seemed enrage certain BUFF posters.

That does not enrage me at all, Toivonen could become a great goalie. I'm just saying it came at a convenient time to make these comparison's.

 

[Fenton]

Toivonen is extremely calm and cool, he has the ability to steal games, like ****ing rob them from your house and laugh in your face. Nittymaki doesn't seem like a huge upgrade over Esche, but at the same time he was able to carry Finland to the gold medal game. Maybe lack of interest in the NHL game, or he plays better infront of a defensive system. Lundqvist is outright solid, he is a really good goalie. He can steal games too, he is calm and cool aswell, I just don't see him as getting as many shutouts Toivonen could. Miller I haven't seen enough of him to say anything, all I know is Miller beer sucks, so he is probably a beer league goalie. HAR HAR HAR.



Lundqvist is currently the best, I think Toivonen will be the best of the 4.

 

[Matti_A]

Right now:
1.Lundqvist (in a league of his own right now)
2.Lehtonen
3.Toivonen
4.Miller (I gotta admit I haven't seen that much of his play this season)
5.Niittymäki

At their peak:
1.Lundqvist
2.Lehtonen (very very close second)
3.Toivonen (not in the same class as the two above but still huge potential)
4.Miller
5.Niittymäki (the only one I feel doesn't really belong in this group, too inconsistent)

 

[Matti_A]

Toivonen is extremely calm and cool, he has the ability to steal games, like ****ing rob them from your house and laugh in your face. Nittymaki doesn't seem like a huge upgrade over Esche, but at the same time he was able to carry Finland to the gold medal game. Maybe lack of interest in the NHL game, or he plays better infront of a defensive system. Lundqvist is outright solid, he is a really good goalie. He can steal games too, he is calm and cool aswell, I just don't see him as getting as many shutouts Toivonen could. Miller I haven't seen enough of him to say anything, all I know is Miller beer sucks, so he is probably a beer league goalie. HAR HAR HAR.



Lundqvist is currently the best, I think Toivonen will be the best of the 4.

The play of both Niittymäki and Lundqvist at the olympics is overrated. Both teams could have made it to the finals without them and Nabokov was the best goalie imo.

 

[Piggish]

What accounts for this is in Millers two years where he played 15 games and 3 games he played behind a ;lousy team with one of the leagues worst defenses than this year his stats werwe outstanding until this litle stretch

Even if we discount Miller's first two NHL seasons, it leaves this season's numbers. I think it's likely that Miller's current season statistics are a better representation of his normal level of play than his statistics right after the all-star break. Athletes' rate statistics have a tendency to regress to the norm over time.

One interesting comparison is between their AHL careers, as they both spent last season in that league. Here are Toivonen's numbers for the Providence Bruins:

[FONT=Courier New]Regular season:
Year    GP    Min   W   L   T    GA    GAA   Shots    Sv%   ShO   G   A   PiM
03-04   36   2162  15  16   4    83   2.30    1055   .921     2   0   0    12
04-05   54   3017  29  18   3   103   2.05    1507   .932     7   0   0    19

Post-season:
Year    GP    Min   W   L   GA    GAA   Shots    Sv%   ShO   G   A   PiM
04-05   17   1038  10   7   42   2.43     547   .923     0   0   0     2[/FONT]

And here are Miller's for the Rochester Americans:

[FONT=Courier New]Regular season:
Year    GP    Min   W   L   T    GA    GAA   Shots    Sv%   ShO   G   A   PiM
02-03   47   2817  23  18   5   110   2.34    1376   .920     2   0   0     6
03-04   60   3579  27  25   7   132   2.21    1760   .925     5   0   1     2
04-05   63   3740  41  17   4   153   2.45    1967   .922     8   0   0    12

Post-season:
Year    GP    Min   W   L   GA    GAA   Shots    Sv%   ShO   G   A   PiM
02-03    3    190   1   2   13   4.11      90   .856     0   0   0     0
03-04   14    857   7   7   26   1.82     394   .934     2   0   0     0
04-05    9    547   5   4   24   2.63     265   .909     0   0   1     0[/FONT]

How come the younger Toivonen put up a clearly superior save percentage in AHL in 2004-2005 if there's a big gap between him and Miller?

 

[Hunter Gathers]

He sure wasn't on Wednesday. Starting to show a little wear and tear with this long season.

I think he'll fizzle out and be an average NHL goalie for the rest of a relatively short career.

Right now Miller is the best IMO and Niittymaki will have the best NHL career partly because he plays for a team that is consistently good.

Wait a second.

Are you serious with this post or is this just some big, elaborate joke?

 

[Hunter Gathers]

Right now:

Lundqvist
Miller
Lehtonen
Niittymaki
Toivonen

At their peak:

Lehtonen
Toivonen
Lundqvist
Miller
Niittymaki

 

[Hunter Gathers]

Right now:
1.Lundqvist (in a league of his own right now)
2.Lehtonen
3.Toivonen
4.Miller (I gotta admit I haven't seen that much of his play this season)
5.Niittymäki

At their peak:
1.Lundqvist
2.Lehtonen (very very close second)
3.Toivonen (not in the same class as the two above but still huge potential)
4.Miller
5.Niittymäki (the only one I feel doesn't really belong in this group, too inconsistent)

To be honest, I feel that both Lehtonen and Toivonen have the most long term potential of any single drafted goaltenders currently a part of an NHL organization. Rask is a huge drop from them right now, even, as far as I'm concerned. Unless something really bad happens to Lehtonen, I can't see him NOT eclipsing Lundqvist in the future. Toivonen and Lundqvist might eventually even out to be around the same level, but I even feel that Toivonen has more potential in the long term than Hank does.

And I also agree that Niitymaki is the worst of the bunch and the worst by a decent amount.

 

[Matti_A]

To be honest, I feel that both Lehtonen and Toivonen have the most long term potential of any single drafted goaltenders currently a part of an NHL organization. Rask is a huge drop from them right now, even, as far as I'm concerned. Unless something really bad happens to Lehtonen, I can't see him NOT eclipsing Lundqvist in the future. Toivonen and Lundqvist might eventually even out to be around the same level, but I even feel that Toivonen has more potential in the long term than Hank does.

And I also agree that Niitymaki is the worst of the bunch and the worst by a decent amount.

Before the start of the season I felt the same way as you regarding Lehtonen, but, when he went down with a groin injury in the first game of the season and his hip-problems emerged it forced him to alter his style and I believe his potential was somewhat lessened. He is of course the future of Atlanta and I believe he will come very close to Lundqvist but not fully be able to live up to his high expectations.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

Before the start of the season I felt the same way as you regarding Lehtonen, but, when he went down with a groin injury in the first game of the season and his hip-problems emerged it forced him to alter his style and I believe his potential was somewhat lessened. He is of course the future of Atlanta and I believe he will come very close to Lundqvist but not fully be able to live up to his high expectations.

I think next year when he is 100% we will see the true Kari. We are already seeing glimpses of him in his play now and I can only imagine how much better he will be.

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

That does not enrage me at all, Toivonen could become a great goalie. I'm just saying it came at a convenient time to make these comparison's.

I wasn't referring to you in my post. You are very unbiased when discussing their prospects - I was more referring to Paille #11 w/ some of his comments (see post #55).

While I agree that Millers stats have taken a hit here lately which makes the comparison much closer - I think that most goalies have bad stretches and Miller hadn't had his yet. If you look at HT - he got off to a very slow start, and then came on like gangbusters before he hurt his ankle. BTW, I think that Miller is going to be a great goalie - I just have a hard time when some posters are pimping their guy like he's the second coming of Patrick Roy while ripping on a comparable player in a very different situation.

 

[Hudsey]

I'm an Ottawa fan so I have no bias to any of the goalies.
I personally like Lundqvist the most and think he is the most consistant of the goalies. Pretty well lets in 2 goals a gameand you can count on him to do that gam in and game out which is hard to say of any goalies.

I've saw Miller a few times and I think he is the second best right now. He had a bad streak but he can steal games and seems to be consistant.

I didn't ask about Lehtonen but since everybody talks about him so much.
I know there's all kinds of talk about him and I've read the ratings on him, but from the sports highlights everynight he doesn't seem that great yet. From what I've saw I think he is good at shootouts, but is seems that he lets in 4-5 goals all the time. I just looked him up on yahoo and it shows the last 5 games where he let in 18 goals in 4 games, but also got a shutout in 1.

All the goalies numbers are:
Fleury has a 3.34 with a .896sv% 11 wins (if anybody has a handicap here it is Fleury because of his team, but he still only has a 89.6 sv%)
Niitymaki has a 2.96 with a .896sv% 22 wins
Lehtonen has a 2.84 with a .906 sv% 18 wins
Toivonen has a 2.63 with a .914 sv% 9 wins
Miller has a 2.62 with a .912sv% 26 wins
Lundqvist has a 2.15 with a .925sv% 30 wins (in more games so if goalies go through slumps he is doing well)