Player Discussion: Luke Witkowski

[DFC]

Carle is too good to be a #7, put him next to Nesterov so Nesterov can pinch up more and keep Witko as the #7.

Probably not a good idea to have Nesterov playing his off-side in any sort of long-term scenario. If Nesterov overtakes Carle, Carle becomes addition by way of subtraction in terms of contract.

I think Nesterov might be too good to keep in the AHL next year (not sure his waiver status), but he's also too young to keep on board as an extra D. In an ideal situation, I don't think he and Carle can be on the same roster next year. It would be a lot easier to give Nesterov the job and then go out and find a $1.5m steady vet who can be the extra LHD.

We sort of need a cheap Eric Brewer.

 

[Volodya Krutov]

I believe 3 dmen have such an unique skillset they're a lock for next year & probably more.
Hedman
Stralman
Coburn


Now how I see the line-up in 2 separate group:
Group Lefties (2 way)
Garrison
Carle
Nesterov
Barbs
Jason & Nikita particularly (will) have a similar role on the team, offensive minded middle pairing dmen with consistent PP time.

Group righties (stay at home)
Sustr
Witkowski


The fact that Cooper pays so much attention to handedness, Sustr will never have to compete for a spot with a young lefty, unless the lefty becomes so good, like elite potential, Cooper has no choice but to play him somewhere.


That being said, there's an overload of "talent" on the left side and a slight lack of depth on the right one.

 

[Werewolf]

I believe 3 dmen have such an unique skillset they're a lock for next year & probably more.
Hedman
Stralman
Coburn


Now how I see the line-up in 2 separate group:
Group Lefties (2 way)
Garrison
Carle
Nesterov
Barbs
Jason & Nikita particularly (will) have a similar role on the team, offensive minded middle pairing dmen with consistent PP time.

Group righties (stay at home)
Sustr
Witkowski


The fact that Cooper pays so much attention to handedness, Sustr will never have to compete for a spot with a young lefty, unless the lefty becomes so good, like elite potential, Cooper has no choice but to play him somewhere.


That being said, there's an overload of "talent" on the left side and a slight lack of depth on the right one.

How do you figure an overload of "talent" on left side:

Hedman - Stralman
Garrison - Coburn
Carle - Sustr
Barbs - Witkowski

Nesterov - DeAngelo
Koekkoek - Blujus
(Cote/Mormina) - Dotchin

Masin - Macloud
None - Ben Thomas

If anything is slightly tilted towards the RH side since Cote (Mormina) don't figure to come up again to the TBL.

To @DFC: We still have options with Nesterov and I think the organization thinks of him as depth not core - so probably play time at the NHL level is not going to be a concern. We can absolutely keep Carle in the same spot all of next year and bring Nesterov up on injury call-up. After this year, we still have 3 years of both Garrison and Carle. We have 4 years of Stralman. And one more year of Coburn. We trade Carle this off-season...and we lose out on Coburn who we traded a 1st to get. Our defense then becomes extremely young. Its a risk.

Nesterov will have to prove to be better than Carle for us to move Carle. And I don't think that has happened yet nor will it happen next year. Koekkoek will have to prove he is better than Garrison to get his shot in the top 4...but Koekkoek is/will be core so we do have to move someone for him once he is ready.

The value of Carle isn't there with regards to CAP management. But Koekkoek is two years behind Nesterov and Masin is two years behind Koekkoek. If we wait two years of Carle - then we trade Carle with one year left at the TD. In comes Nesterov for two years on the third pair. Then Garrison is gone the year after...and Koekkoek gets in there at age 23/24 in top 4. And two years after that Masin replaces Nesterov on the third pairing at age 24 again. That is good asset management...just 'cause we want to play with the new toys doesn't mean its the best thing to do. We gonna overcook some players but won't matter much 'cause we can recycle the depth players pretty well if we keep patient and only move players to provide play time for "CORE" not "DEPTH".

 

[Volodya Krutov]

How do you figure an overload of "talent" on left side:

Hedman - Stralman
Garrison - Coburn
Carle - Sustr
Barbs - Witkowski

Nesterov - DeAngelo
Koekkoek - Blujus
(Cote/Mormina) - Dotchin

Masin - Macloud
None - Ben Thomas

If anything is slightly tilted towards the RH side since Cote (Mormina) don't figure to come up again to the TBL.

We have 6 nhl ready LD for 3 spots if we count in Koekoek for next year.

I didn't mention the prospects.

 

[HoseEmDown]

How do you figure an overload of "talent" on left side:

Hedman - Stralman
Garrison - Coburn
Carle - Sustr
Barbs - Witkowski

Nesterov - DeAngelo
Koekkoek - Blujus
(Cote/Mormina) - Dotchin

Masin - Macloud
None - Ben Thomas

If anything is slightly tilted towards the RH side since Cote (Mormina) don't figure to come up again to the TBL.

To @DFC: We still have options with Nesterov and I think the organization thinks of him as depth not core - so probably play time at the NHL level is not going to be a concern. We can absolutely keep Carle in the same spot all of next year and bring Nesterov up on injury call-up. After this year, we still have 3 years of both Garrison and Carle. We have 4 years of Stralman. And one more year of Coburn. We trade Carle this off-season...and we lose out on Coburn who we traded a 1st to get. Our defense then becomes extremely young. Its a risk.

Nesterov will have to prove to be better than Carle for us to move Carle. And I don't think that has happened yet nor will it happen next year. Koekkoek will have to prove he is better than Garrison to get his shot in the top 4...but Koekkoek is/will be core so we do have to move someone for him once he is ready.

The value of Carle isn't there with regards to CAP management. But Koekkoek is two years behind Nesterov and Masin is two years behind Koekkoek. If we wait two years of Carle - then we trade Carle with one year left at the TD. In comes Nesterov for two years on the third pair. Then Garrison is gone the year after...and Koekkoek gets in there at age 23/24 in top 4. And two years after that Masin replaces Nesterov on the third pairing at age 24 again. That is good asset management...just 'cause we want to play with the new toys doesn't mean its the best thing to do. We gonna overcook some players but won't matter much 'cause we can recycle the depth players pretty well if we keep patient and only move players to provide play time for "CORE" not "DEPTH".

Left hand vs right hand
Hedman >>> Stralman
Coburn >> DeAngelo
Garrison >> Sustr
Carle >> Witkowski
Nesterov >> Blujus
Koekkoek >> Dotchin
Masin = Macleod
Barberio = Thomas

The left side is stacked especially at the NHL level. Hedman is only 24 and should be a #1 for many more years so the left will always be ahead. Your theory on revolving defenseman every two years seems nice but is very unlikely. Koekkoek will be pushing for a top 4 spot in less then 3 years. Masin is a nice prospect but Nesterov isn't much older and is playing well, why can't he remain a 3rd pair guy for many years? We need another top 4 RHD after DeAngelo, Blujus/Dotchin/Macloed/Thomas are a reach to be considered top 4 locks, bottom pair at best. We need another stud on the right side.

 

[Volodya Krutov]

To @DFC: We still have options with Nesterov and I think the organization thinks of him as depth not core - so probably play time at the NHL level is not going to be a concern. We can absolutely keep Carle in the same spot all of next year and bring Nesterov up on injury call-up. After this year, we still have 3 years of both Garrison and Carle. We have 4 years of Stralman. And one more year of Coburn. We trade Carle this off-season...and we lose out on Coburn who we traded a 1st to get. Our defense then becomes extremely young. Its a risk.

Nesterov will have to prove to be better than Carle for us to move Carle. And I don't think that has happened yet nor will it happen next year. Koekkoek will have to prove he is better than Garrison to get his shot in the top 4...but Koekkoek is/will be core so we do have to move someone for him once he is ready.

The value of Carle isn't there with regards to CAP management. But Koekkoek is two years behind Nesterov and Masin is two years behind Koekkoek. If we wait two years of Carle - then we trade Carle with one year left at the TD. In comes Nesterov for two years on the third pair. Then Garrison is gone the year after...and Koekkoek gets in there at age 23/24 in top 4. And two years after that Masin replaces Nesterov on the third pairing at age 24 again. That is good asset management...just 'cause we want to play with the new toys doesn't mean its the best thing to do. We gonna overcook some players but won't matter much 'cause we can recycle the depth players pretty well if we keep patient and only move players to provide play time for "CORE" not "DEPTH".

Nesterov being a depth guy while Koekkoek is already a core player is purely based on expectation of draft position. It doesn't work that way though, they all start equal once called up and judged on their current play.

 

[Werewolf]

Left hand vs right hand
Hedman >>> Stralman
Coburn >> DeAngelo
Garrison >> Sustr
Carle >> Witkowski
Nesterov >> Blujus
Koekkoek >> Dotchin
Masin = Macleod
Barberio = Thomas

The left side is stacked especially at the NHL level. Hedman is only 24 and should be a #1 for many more years so the left will always be ahead. Your theory on revolving defenseman every two years seems nice but is very unlikely. Koekkoek will be pushing for a top 4 spot in less then 3 years. Masin is a nice prospect but Nesterov isn't much older and is playing well, why can't he remain a 3rd pair guy for many years? We need another top 4 RHD after DeAngelo, Blujus/Dotchin/Macloed/Thomas are a reach to be considered top 4 locks, bottom pair at best. We need another stud on the right side.

My theory is not revolving defensemen every 2 years...although with the current depth and contracts in place the theory does prove itself worthy of consideration. I don't mind keeping Nesterov "for many years" my point is the depth player will have to be better than the other depth player regardless of value until CAP becomes a concern. Although Nesterov offers better "value" than Carle...we have an owner that is willing to spend every year up to the CAP. Until Nesterov is out of options...he'll have to be better than the player he is replacing to keep the system depth. Barberio will get squeezed out between Carle and Nesterov as soon as this off-season. Its logical and probable to think Nesterov becomes squeezed out between Carle and Koekkoek the year after if Nesterov isn't better than Carle by then.

My thought process is slow and steady stream of defesemen until they are better than the player they are replacing...not until they are ready for NHL duty if they still have the option to go back to the AHL.

Oh, and before I forget Coburn exclusively plays the right side...he'll never play the left side and should be considered RHD.

 

[Volodya Krutov]

Regarding the 2 different types of skillset, the competition in the future years will be:
Garrison vs Nesterov
Carle vs Koekkoek

 

[Werewolf]

Nesterov being a depth guy while Koekkoek is already a core player is purely based on expectation of draft position. It doesn't work that way though, they all start equal once called up and judged on their current play.

Not based on draft position...based on Yzerman introducing Vasilevskiy, Koekkkoek, and Drouin at the season ticket holders meeting as the future of the franchise. It is also based on me watching every game Koekkoek and Nesterov have played at the pro level in North America. This is not speculation...most of the posters here watched Koekkoek for the first time for a few games in the past couple of weeks...I've been watching him all year. I'd think to have a better grasp than most on this board as to the type of player he is.

 

[Werewolf]

Regarding the 2 different types of skillset, the competition in the future years will be:
Garrison vs Nesterov
Carle vs Koekkoek

No.

/chars

 

[Cigar City]

Some of the Nesterov homerism in here is strong. Wow. If Nesterov ever comes close to the player Garrison is, I'll be ecstatic.

 

[DFC]

My theory is not revolving defensemen every 2 years...although with the current depth and contracts in place the theory does prove itself worthy of consideration. I don't mind keeping Nesterov "for many years" my point is the depth player will have to be better than the other depth player regardless of value until CAP becomes a concern. Although Nesterov offers better "value" than Carle...we have an owner that is willing to spend every year up to the CAP. Until Nesterov is out of options...he'll have to be better than the player he is replacing to keep the system depth. Barberio will get squeezed out between Carle and Nesterov as soon as this off-season. Its logical and probable to think Nesterov becomes squeezed out between Carle and Koekkoek the year after if Nesterov isn't better than Carle by then.

My thought process is slow and steady stream of defesemen until they are better than the player they are replacing...not until they are ready for NHL duty if they still have the option to go back to the AHL.

Oh, and before I forget Coburn exclusively plays the right side...he'll never play the left side and should be considered RHD.

Value is relative to contract though, to an extent, and I think this is one area where it applies. If we were talking about Nesterov on the second pairing, it would be a different matter.

I think if the team had any intentions of returning Nesterov to the AHL he would have been sent this year. We showed we had no intentions of it at least a couple of times, so I would say his spot on next year's team is pretty secure. And while he hasn't shown that he's more valuable than Carle, he's shown that he's pretty close, which is where I think the dollars come into play.

As for risk for the future... the one risk is Coburn leaving, but I think that's pretty manageable. I don't think it's underestimating Matt Carle's abilities to say, if need be, we can find a suitable replacement in the UFA market, and a much, much cheaper one. It's a little bit absurd that Matt Carle is our highest paid defenseman. We could put those dollars to better use than on our third pairing, where we have suitable, cheaper replacements ready. Even if they're not as good as Carle right now, the experience will help get them closer, and the $5.5m could give us an upgrade elsewhere.

 

[Werewolf]

We need another stud on the right side.

We either need one ready by the time Stralman's contract runs out 4 years from now...or we acquire one like we've done with the acquisitions of Stralman/Garrison/Carle/Coburn....

 

[MattM92]

We either need one ready by the time Stralman's contract runs out 4 years from now...or we acquire one like we've done with the acquisitions of Stralman/Garrison/Carle/Coburn....

DeAngelo will be in the NHL by then.

 

[Volodya Krutov]

Not based on draft position...based on Yzerman introducing Vasilevskiy, Drouin, and Drouin at the season ticket holders meeting as the future of the franchise. It is also based on me watching every game Koekkoek and Nesterov have played at the pro level in North America. This is not speculation...most of the posters here watched Koekkoek for the first time for a few games in the past couple of weeks...I've been watching him all year. I'd think to have a better grasp than most on this board as to the type of player he is.

Watching the ahl is not the voice of divine. I've been there already "scouting" the prospects and it taught me my lesson. The nhl is a different animal and you can't anticipate how these teenagers will mentally and physically respond to the fierce competition and speed of the game, there's no comparable to the nhl, particularly with the dmen. Some do as expected, others can't handle the whole thing and a few thrive under pressure.


I never implied anything bad about Koekkoek, I also see him as a future stud, rather your persistent desire to see Nesterov sent down, despite his current play, that makes me believe maybe you've watched a bit much of his ahl games and it clouds your judgment.

 

[Werewolf]

Value is relative to contract though, to an extent, and I think this is one area where it applies. If we were talking about Nesterov on the second pairing, it would be a different matter.

I think if the team had any intentions of returning Nesterov to the AHL he would have been sent this year. We showed we had no intentions of it at least a couple of times, so I would say his spot on next year's team is pretty secure. And while he hasn't shown that he's more valuable than Carle, he's shown that his pretty close, which is where I think the dollars come into play.

As for risk for the future... the one risk is Coburn leaving, but I think that's pretty manageable. I don't think it's underestimating Matt Carle's abilities to say, if need be, we can find a suitable replacement in the UFA market, and a much, much cheaper one. It's a little bit absurd that Matt Carle is our highest paid defenseman. We could put those dollars to better use than on our third pairing, where we have suitable, cheaper replacements ready. Even if they're not as good as Carle right now, the experience will help get them closer, and the $5.5m could give us an upgrade elsewhere.

...ummm injuries. You'll watch Nesterov be sent down in a few days when Garrison is ready to come back.

As to Carle...the $5.5 can be used elsewhere if X + Nesterov > Carle + Y Position you want to upgrade. The only place I see an upgrade is on the fourth line. You might make a case for 1st Line LW...to replace Killorn. But Drouin can spot there.

X - New Player
Y - Current Player Being Replaced

 

[Werewolf]

DeAngelo will be in the NHL by then.

He said in addition to DeAngelo and I agreed. Please follow.

 

[Volodya Krutov]

Some of the Nesterov homerism in here is strong. Wow. If Nesterov ever comes close to the player Garrison is, I'll be ecstatic.

Are you talking about me ?

I have no problem with that. I saw him as a future 2nd pairing dman since day 1 and I'll be there to remind you when that time comes.

 

[MattM92]

He said in addition to DeAngelo and I agreed. Please follow.

How many "studs" are expected to be on this team?

 

[Werewolf]

Watching the ahl is not the voice of divine. I've been there already "scouting" the prospects and it taught me my lesson. The nhl is a different animal and you can't anticipate how these teenagers will mentally and physically respond to the fierce competition and speed of the game, there's no comparable to the nhl, particularly with the dmen. Some do as expected, others can't handle the whole thing and a few thrive under pressure.


I never implied anything bad about Koekkoek, I also see him as a future stud, rather your persistent desire to see Nesterov sent down, despite his current play, that makes me believe maybe you've watched a bit much of his ahl games and it clouds your judgment.

Maybe...

But you don't make any sense unless you think Carle will be sitting press box when Garrison comes back. Nesterov will be sent down...no value in keeping him here when Garrison returns. Am I crazy for thinking this...?

 

[Werewolf]

Are you talking about me ?

I have no problem with that. I saw him as a future 2nd pairing dman since day 1 and I'll be there to remind you when that time comes.

Not here in Tampa...Hedman/Koekkoek have that locked down. And Nesterov won't be better than Garrison until after Koekkoek is ready for NHL duty at which point Nesterov won't have a spot on the second pair.

 

[Volodya Krutov]

Maybe...

But you don't make any sense unless you think Carle will be sitting press box when Garrison comes back. Nesterov will be sent down...no value in keeping him here when Garrison returns. Am I crazy for thinking this...?

Ok I think there's a little misunderstanding.
Nesterov's time has come... To either be sent down or sit in the press box.


I never said he would take either Carle's or Jason's spot right off the bat. That wouldn't make any sense I agree with you.
When I said "future years" I wasn't talking about now but within the next 2,3 years.

 

[Werewolf]

How many "studs" are expected to be on this team?

23

/chars.

 

[Volodya Krutov]

Not here in Tampa...Hedman/Koekkoek have that locked down. And Nesterov won't be better than Garrison until after Koekkoek is ready for NHL duty at which point Nesterov won't have a spot on the second pair.

Time will tell.

 

[Werewolf]

Ok I think there's a little misunderstanding.
Nesterov's time has come... To either be sent down or sit in the press box.


I never said he would take either Carle's or Jason's spot right off the bat. That wouldn't make any sense I agree with you.
When I said "future years" I wasn't talking about now but within the next 2,3 years.

We can talk about the next two or three years. Nesterov is RFA in 16-17. He'll be depth next year again...sign a (Connolly/Barberio) 1 yr contract the next and replace Carle on the third pair. Then he won't be brought back 'cause Koekkoek will be ready on the third pair the year after and Nesterov still won't be better than Garrison.