Confirmed with Link: Lukas Radil signs 1-year extension

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Internazionale

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Apr 24, 2007
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This guy deserves more than a 1 year deal. He is a solid player and gets better every game. Very impressed with Radil and so happy he is sticking with the big boys.
 

Barrie22

Shark fan in hiding
Aug 11, 2009
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This guy deserves more than a 1 year deal. He is a solid player and gets better every game. Very impressed with Radil and so happy he is sticking with the big boys.

People here said the same about nieto, about melker, and countless other replaceable level players.

Its 18 games.
 

OrrNumber4

Registered User
Jul 25, 2002
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Radil is significantly larger than either player and his NHL-adjusted scoring rate was far higher than Karlsson’s or Nieto’s were before they joined the Sharks.

The problem with projected scoring is you are typically comparing 18-22-year-olds KHL productions to their eventual NHL productions. The comparison is favorable to the KHL since you are comparing a project to a more finished product. When you apply those numbers to someone like Radil, who isn't going to develop very much if at all, it is going to skew positively for him.
 

Juxtaposer

Outro: Divina Comedia
Dec 21, 2009
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Radil is significantly larger than either player and his NHL-adjusted scoring rate was far higher than Karlsson’s or Nieto’s were before they joined the Sharks.

Nieto has a half a season stretch playing with Marleau and Couture where it genuinely looked like he was going to end up a 70 point Havlat type.
 

TomasHertlsRooster

Don’t say eye test when you mean points
May 14, 2012
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The problem with projected scoring is you are typically comparing 18-22-year-olds KHL productions to their eventual NHL productions. The comparison is favorable to the KHL since you are comparing a project to a more finished product. When you apply those numbers to someone like Radil, who isn't going to develop very much if at all, it is going to skew positively for him.

Well, not exactly.

If you’re comparing the scoring rates of a 26 year old in his KHL season to a 27 year old in his NHL season, you’re comparing two finished products.

If you’re comparing the scoring rate of a 20 year old in his OHL season to a 21 year old in his NHL season, you’re looking at a much more developed product in the NHL season. And so, the model will assume some player development when estimating that player’s NHL scoring rate.

Nieto has a half a season stretch playing with Marleau and Couture where it genuinely looked like he was going to end up a 70 point Havlat type.

And Radil has a quarter season stretch with Melker Karlsson and company where he looks like he is going to end up a 40 point Hertl type. The difference is that Radil has a history of producing pretty well in other leagues - Nieto and Melker Karlsson never did. That’s why I’m pretty optimistic that he’ll sustain this.
 
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NiWa

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Nov 27, 2003
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The problem with projected scoring is you are typically comparing 18-22-year-olds KHL productions to their eventual NHL productions. The comparison is favorable to the KHL since you are comparing a project to a more finished product. When you apply those numbers to someone like Radil, who isn't going to develop very much if at all, it is going to skew positively for him.
The conversion number posted in the tweet are indeed based on season numbers from players at all ages. However, you can modify the sheet to exclude those seasons where players are much younger or older.
For the KHL, if we just use players from age 26-30, the sample size is small (just 58 records), but it gives us a skew factor of .68, opposed to 0.74 when looking at all ages. So yes, it is different, but not crazily.

Using @JoeThorntonsRooster posts line from the summer and adjusting that to only look at mature players in that age range, we get the following:
  • Lukas Radil scored 38 points in 51 games in the KHL. That’s a .745 PPG, which translates to a 0.55 0.51 points per game rate in the NHL, or 45 42 points per 82 games (when using KHL_PPG* KHL_NHL_skew_factor .68 and applying it to a full season).

Alternatively, we could have taken Radil's three seasons in the KHL (age 25-27), look at his PPG there and then compare them to seasons from the KHL at the same age (we get a .64 here, albeit from an even smaller sample size, 47 records). This would change the equation to the following:
  • Lukas Radil scored 103 points in 164 games in the KHL. That’s a .63 PPG, which translates to a 0.40 points per game rate in the NHL, or 33 points per 82 games (when using KHL_PPG* KHL_NHL_skew_factor .64 and applying it to a full season).

Of course, it doesn't factor in line mates, time on the ice, quality of shifts etc. As it's based on real players who did make the jump from KHL to NHL its seems like its a useful indicator available.


Probably the wrong thread for this, but three KHL player's that might be interesting for next year's free agency, purely based on looking at age, size, rights available, KHL scoring:
The latter two were just mentioned for having a great week in the KHL:
I think the first two would have a shot, if they sign a two way contract and commit to proving themselves with the Cuda first. Room with the Cuda is tight though, especially at forward.
Dietz could probably earn top money as star defender in the KHL, doubtful that he'd go for a two-way contract again.
Sekac I don't really see us going for him given his age and history in four organizations already, but he is Czech....
 
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Hinterland

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The conversion number posted in the tweet are indeed based on season numbers from players at all ages. However, you can modify the sheet to exclude those seasons where players are much younger or older.
For the KHL, if we just use players from age 26-30, the sample size is small (just 58 records), but it gives us a skew factor of .68, opposed to 0.74 when looking at all ages. So yes, it is different, but not crazily.

Using @JoeThorntonsRooster posts line from the summer and adjusting that to only look at mature players in that age range, we get the following:
  • Lukas Radil scored 38 points in 51 games in the KHL. That’s a .745 PPG, which translates to a 0.55 0.51 points per game rate in the NHL, or 45 42 points per 82 games (when using KHL_PPG* KHL_NHL_skew_factor .68 and applying it to a full season).

Alternatively, we could have taken Radil's three seasons in the KHL (age 25-27), look at his PPG there and then compare them to seasons from the KHL at the same age (we get a .64 here, albeit from an even smaller sample size, 47 records). This would change the equation to the following:
  • Lukas Radil scored 103 points in 164 games in the KHL. That’s a .63 PPG, which translates to a 0.40 points per game rate in the NHL, or 33 points per 82 games (when using KHL_PPG* KHL_NHL_skew_factor .64 and applying it to a full season).

Of course, it doesn't factor in line mates, time on the ice, quality of shifts etc. As it's based on real players who did make the jump from KHL to NHL its seems like its a useful indicator available.


Probably the wrong thread for this, but three KHL player's that might be interesting for next year's free agency, purely based on looking at age, size, rights available, KHL scoring:
The latter two were just mentioned for having a great week in the KHL:
I think the first two would have a shot, if they sign a two way contract and commit to proving themselves with the Cuda first. Room with the Cuda is tight though, especially at forward.
Dietz could probably earn top money as star defender in the KHL, doubtful that he'd go for a two-way contract again.
Sekac I don't really see us going for him given his age and history in four organizations already, but he is Czech....

Those kind of tools are almost 100% useless...especially for the KHL. At least on their own. You have to watch games and know about the players and teams to get a better idea but even then you're still taking a punt in most cases.

The KHL is pretty big and therefore not very deep. In other European leagues the wealth is much more evenly spread. If you're playing for the right team you can easily score lots of points despite being a trash player. On the other side there are bad clubs for which even the most gifted players couldn't score much.
A good example is UCKA...they have almost zero competition inside their division and it's been like that for years. You all know how terrible Grigorenko and Vey are...no NHL team would want them...yet still they're scoring seemingly at will.

Then you also never know how much those Eastern Europeans really care about the NHL or whether they're just looking to earn a big contract. Often times they're not prepared to put the work in, to sit or play in the minors. I don't blame them...the Swiss aren't much better. But it's a concern for NHL clubs...if things don't go as expected, they're gone before GM's can count to three. A different guy could have left already if treated like Radil.

Then there's also the language. People from other European countries do but Russians still don't necessarily learn English which can lead to misconceptions not just in terms of hockey. Russians at times also struggle with living in NA.

Finally the smaller Ice is something some Europeans never figure out. Typically players with bigger frames have a certain advantage but it's not always the case as it's also down to hockey sense.

Good for you that it worked in that particular case but it was pure luck. The three players you listed clearly aren't good enough to play in the NHL.
 

TomasHertlsRooster

Don’t say eye test when you mean points
May 14, 2012
33,360
25,417
Fremont, CA
The conversion number posted in the tweet are indeed based on season numbers from players at all ages. However, you can modify the sheet to exclude those seasons where players are much younger or older.
For the KHL, if we just use players from age 26-30, the sample size is small (just 58 records), but it gives us a skew factor of .68, opposed to 0.74 when looking at all ages. So yes, it is different, but not crazily.

Using @JoeThorntonsRooster posts line from the summer and adjusting that to only look at mature players in that age range, we get the following:
  • Lukas Radil scored 38 points in 51 games in the KHL. That’s a .745 PPG, which translates to a 0.55 0.51 points per game rate in the NHL, or 45 42 points per 82 games (when using KHL_PPG* KHL_NHL_skew_factor .68 and applying it to a full season).

Alternatively, we could have taken Radil's three seasons in the KHL (age 25-27), look at his PPG there and then compare them to seasons from the KHL at the same age (we get a .64 here, albeit from an even smaller sample size, 47 records). This would change the equation to the following:
  • Lukas Radil scored 103 points in 164 games in the KHL. That’s a .63 PPG, which translates to a 0.40 points per game rate in the NHL, or 33 points per 82 games (when using KHL_PPG* KHL_NHL_skew_factor .64 and applying it to a full season).

Of course, it doesn't factor in line mates, time on the ice, quality of shifts etc. As it's based on real players who did make the jump from KHL to NHL its seems like its a useful indicator available.


Probably the wrong thread for this, but three KHL player's that might be interesting for next year's free agency, purely based on looking at age, size, rights available, KHL scoring:
The latter two were just mentioned for having a great week in the KHL:
I think the first two would have a shot, if they sign a two way contract and commit to proving themselves with the Cuda first. Room with the Cuda is tight though, especially at forward.
Dietz could probably earn top money as star defender in the KHL, doubtful that he'd go for a two-way contract again.
Sekac I don't really see us going for him given his age and history in four organizations already, but he is Czech....

Nice research. Hopefully Radil proves us right.

Darren Dietz is an enticing player, but I don’t think we have room on the right side for him.
 

NiWa

Registered User
Nov 27, 2003
387
459
Ireland
Those kind of tools are almost 100% useless...especially for the KHL. At least on their own. You have to watch games and know about the players and teams to get a better idea but even then you're still taking a punt in most cases.
<snip>
I wouldn't call it almost useless, it's actually a great indicator of what we as fans can expect in ideal situations.
For a NHL organization you are right of course, if anything this should tell you where you'll be watching tape / sending your scouts.

You are right with the other stuff of course, I am from Germany myself so I have solid understanding of those leagues.

Nice research. Hopefully Radil proves us right.

Darren Dietz is an enticing player, but I don’t think we have room on the right side for him.
Fingers crossed!
He could be Heed², but you are right, let's rather re-sign EK65! :)
 

NiWa

Registered User
Nov 27, 2003
387
459
Ireland
[...]
Probably the wrong thread for this, but three KHL player's that might be interesting for next year's free agency, purely based on looking at age, size, rights available, KHL scoring:
[...]
I think the first two would have a shot, if they sign a two way contract and commit to proving themselves with the Cuda first. Room with the Cuda is tight though, especially at forward.
Dietz could probably earn top money as star defender in the KHL, doubtful that he'd go for a two-way contract again.
Sekac I don't really see us going for him given his age and history in four organizations already, but he is Czech....

Ilya Mikheyev got signed by the Leafs in May: Maple Leafs Sign Ilya Mikheyev to Entry Level Contract
Other two still in KHL as of now.
 

Doctor Soraluce

Registered User
Sep 28, 2017
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Good thing he’s only signed for 1 year at league minimum :dunno:
He played down the lineup quite a bit. I think after seeing what the NHL actually is like he hopefully comes back with a little more muscle and more confidence. He's already very naturally good at hanging onto the puck so I think we could see legit improvement to be a solid 3rd or at least 4th liner next season. Maybe get some time on a higher line on occasion when he's feeling confident.
 
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boylerroom

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Jan 2, 2012
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The Nemesis

Semper Tyrannus
Apr 11, 2005
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I feel like people aren't necessarily going to notice that this was a super necro bump of a thread from January and think that the Radil contract is new. Given that the bumping post was just a comment about a tangential discussion of other outside-the-NHL players and what happened to them since the initial post, I think it's safe to lock this thread up. Any remaining discussion can end up in the roster talk thread or somewhere else appropriate.
 
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