Internazionale
Registered User
This guy deserves more than a 1 year deal. He is a solid player and gets better every game. Very impressed with Radil and so happy he is sticking with the big boys.
Agreed.
$2M is really cheap for a stud like Melker Karlsson. I don’t know if I’d call him a bottom-6 winger, though.
This guy deserves more than a 1 year deal. He is a solid player and gets better every game. Very impressed with Radil and so happy he is sticking with the big boys.
People here said the same about nieto, about melker, and countless other replaceable level players.
Its 18 games.
Radil is significantly larger than either player and his NHL-adjusted scoring rate was far higher than Karlsson’s or Nieto’s were before they joined the Sharks.
Radil is significantly larger than either player and his NHL-adjusted scoring rate was far higher than Karlsson’s or Nieto’s were before they joined the Sharks.
shouldn't have focused his time on making C- hiphop tunesNieto has a half a season stretch playing with Marleau and Couture where it genuinely looked like he was going to end up a 70 point Havlat type.
The problem with projected scoring is you are typically comparing 18-22-year-olds KHL productions to their eventual NHL productions. The comparison is favorable to the KHL since you are comparing a project to a more finished product. When you apply those numbers to someone like Radil, who isn't going to develop very much if at all, it is going to skew positively for him.
Nieto has a half a season stretch playing with Marleau and Couture where it genuinely looked like he was going to end up a 70 point Havlat type.
The conversion number posted in the tweet are indeed based on season numbers from players at all ages. However, you can modify the sheet to exclude those seasons where players are much younger or older.The problem with projected scoring is you are typically comparing 18-22-year-olds KHL productions to their eventual NHL productions. The comparison is favorable to the KHL since you are comparing a project to a more finished product. When you apply those numbers to someone like Radil, who isn't going to develop very much if at all, it is going to skew positively for him.
The conversion number posted in the tweet are indeed based on season numbers from players at all ages. However, you can modify the sheet to exclude those seasons where players are much younger or older.
For the KHL, if we just use players from age 26-30, the sample size is small (just 58 records), but it gives us a skew factor of .68, opposed to 0.74 when looking at all ages. So yes, it is different, but not crazily.
Using @JoeThorntonsRooster posts line from the summer and adjusting that to only look at mature players in that age range, we get the following:
- Lukas Radil scored 38 points in 51 games in the KHL. That’s a .745 PPG, which translates to a
0.550.51 points per game rate in the NHL, or4542 points per 82 games (when using KHL_PPG* KHL_NHL_skew_factor .68 and applying it to a full season).
Alternatively, we could have taken Radil's three seasons in the KHL (age 25-27), look at his PPG there and then compare them to seasons from the KHL at the same age (we get a .64 here, albeit from an even smaller sample size, 47 records). This would change the equation to the following:
- Lukas Radil scored 103 points in 164 games in the KHL. That’s a .63 PPG, which translates to a 0.40 points per game rate in the NHL, or 33 points per 82 games (when using KHL_PPG* KHL_NHL_skew_factor .64 and applying it to a full season).
Of course, it doesn't factor in line mates, time on the ice, quality of shifts etc. As it's based on real players who did make the jump from KHL to NHL its seems like its a useful indicator available.
Probably the wrong thread for this, but three KHL player's that might be interesting for next year's free agency, purely based on looking at age, size, rights available, KHL scoring:
The latter two were just mentioned for having a great week in the KHL:
- Ilya Mikheyev at eliteprospects.com
- Darren Dietz at eliteprospects.com (Short stint with MTL already)
- Jiri Sekac at eliteprospects.com (Already did play for four NHL teams though.)
I think the first two would have a shot, if they sign a two way contract and commit to proving themselves with the Cuda first. Room with the Cuda is tight though, especially at forward.
- HockeyBuzz.com - Aivis Kalnins - Best of week 17th in KHL - Swede, Canadian and a Czech.
- French article on Dietz from November (via Google Translate)
Dietz could probably earn top money as star defender in the KHL, doubtful that he'd go for a two-way contract again.
Sekac I don't really see us going for him given his age and history in four organizations already, but he is Czech....
The conversion number posted in the tweet are indeed based on season numbers from players at all ages. However, you can modify the sheet to exclude those seasons where players are much younger or older.
For the KHL, if we just use players from age 26-30, the sample size is small (just 58 records), but it gives us a skew factor of .68, opposed to 0.74 when looking at all ages. So yes, it is different, but not crazily.
Using @JoeThorntonsRooster posts line from the summer and adjusting that to only look at mature players in that age range, we get the following:
- Lukas Radil scored 38 points in 51 games in the KHL. That’s a .745 PPG, which translates to a
0.550.51 points per game rate in the NHL, or4542 points per 82 games (when using KHL_PPG* KHL_NHL_skew_factor .68 and applying it to a full season).
Alternatively, we could have taken Radil's three seasons in the KHL (age 25-27), look at his PPG there and then compare them to seasons from the KHL at the same age (we get a .64 here, albeit from an even smaller sample size, 47 records). This would change the equation to the following:
- Lukas Radil scored 103 points in 164 games in the KHL. That’s a .63 PPG, which translates to a 0.40 points per game rate in the NHL, or 33 points per 82 games (when using KHL_PPG* KHL_NHL_skew_factor .64 and applying it to a full season).
Of course, it doesn't factor in line mates, time on the ice, quality of shifts etc. As it's based on real players who did make the jump from KHL to NHL its seems like its a useful indicator available.
Probably the wrong thread for this, but three KHL player's that might be interesting for next year's free agency, purely based on looking at age, size, rights available, KHL scoring:
The latter two were just mentioned for having a great week in the KHL:
- Ilya Mikheyev at eliteprospects.com
- Darren Dietz at eliteprospects.com (Short stint with MTL already)
- Jiri Sekac at eliteprospects.com (Already did play for four NHL teams though.)
I think the first two would have a shot, if they sign a two way contract and commit to proving themselves with the Cuda first. Room with the Cuda is tight though, especially at forward.
- HockeyBuzz.com - Aivis Kalnins - Best of week 17th in KHL - Swede, Canadian and a Czech.
- French article on Dietz from November (via Google Translate)
Dietz could probably earn top money as star defender in the KHL, doubtful that he'd go for a two-way contract again.
Sekac I don't really see us going for him given his age and history in four organizations already, but he is Czech....
I wouldn't call it almost useless, it's actually a great indicator of what we as fans can expect in ideal situations.Those kind of tools are almost 100% useless...especially for the KHL. At least on their own. You have to watch games and know about the players and teams to get a better idea but even then you're still taking a punt in most cases.
<snip>
Fingers crossed!Nice research. Hopefully Radil proves us right.
Darren Dietz is an enticing player, but I don’t think we have room on the right side for him.
[...]
Probably the wrong thread for this, but three KHL player's that might be interesting for next year's free agency, purely based on looking at age, size, rights available, KHL scoring:
[...]
- Ilya Mikheyev at eliteprospects.com
- Darren Dietz at eliteprospects.com (Short stint with MTL already)
- Jiri Sekac at eliteprospects.com (Already did play for four NHL teams though.)
I think the first two would have a shot, if they sign a two way contract and commit to proving themselves with the Cuda first. Room with the Cuda is tight though, especially at forward.
Dietz could probably earn top money as star defender in the KHL, doubtful that he'd go for a two-way contract again.
Sekac I don't really see us going for him given his age and history in four organizations already, but he is Czech....
He played down the lineup quite a bit. I think after seeing what the NHL actually is like he hopefully comes back with a little more muscle and more confidence. He's already very naturally good at hanging onto the puck so I think we could see legit improvement to be a solid 3rd or at least 4th liner next season. Maybe get some time on a higher line on occasion when he's feeling confident.Good thing he’s only signed for 1 year at league minimum
shouldn't have focused his time on making C- hiphop tunes