Friedman: Lucic on the move?

[Habs Halifax]

Maybe. My main problem is I don’t know if Patches just had a bad year or is sliding.

Pacioretty likely commands - based on what he’s done in the past - a 7 million dollar AAV on his new deal. We’re treating Lucic like negative value, which may or may not be the case depending on which version of Jekyll and Hyde Lucic you get. We’re also paying a premium asset, two in the original one you proposed. Pacioretty and Lucic are the same age.

So, my problem is we 1) give up huge pieces of the future for 2) a guy who may or may not be in decline 3) add salary rather than shedding it and 4) may not be better off short term and are definitely worse long term.

Is Pacioretty signed at, say, 7x7 really that much of a better contract than Lucic on the books for 6x5?

I'm not trying to force Patch on the Oilers but there is an die hard Oilers fan at my office that likes Patch a lot. We just had that conversation actually. Patch is drowning in Montreal and I will tell you why. This is a very accurate report of Patch

- He value is a #3 or #4 forward, not as a #1 forward and captain
- He is a bit soft for a big player. This is the major weakness. It's not cause he is weak, it's cause he is a goal scoring forward that like to go to open space.
- He needs a workhorse line-mate. Radulov for example. I actually think Drai would be a good fit for Patch, not McDavid.
- His NHL shot and quick release is elite level. He will score goals
- He is elite level as a two way forward who plays well at both ends of the ice.
- He is excellent on the PK.

This is the true value for Patch. The softness is offset by his defensive awareness, his quick release, and his speed. He is a perfect forward to slot in behind McDavid, Drai, and RNH IMO. His speed would be an asset.

 

[Aceboogie]

Habs already have Patch in play and many think he is worth the 10th alone. So we have no base for a deal if you are not willing to add on top of Lucic and the 10th. How about future picks?

Thats crazy, a pending UFA coming off a 17 goal season. I like Patches but if a GM thinks hes worth a 10th overall pick, I dont think hell be moved

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Getting rid of Lucic and adding Patch would be a massive upgrade for the Oilers... even if they had to unload the 10th pick and Yamamoto while getting grade B prospects like Ikonen or Bitten in return. And no idea if you are interested in Lindgren.

What are the Oilers intentions? To build a winner now or later? This matters in trade discussions

I honestly don’t see it that way. 10th and Yamamoto for Lindgren and afterthought prospects is an incredibly bitter pill to swallow and I’m hoenstly not sure how much better off we are with Pacioretty making 7x7 - likely what he’d command as a free agent - than Lucic making 6 but only for 5 years.

Totally depends on which version of each player shows up. Oiler fans will have nightmares of a lazy disinterested former superstar that they paid a mint to both acquire and keep coasting around and getting 16 goals a year.

Habs fans will be terrified that Yamamoto/10th bust and Lucic is coasting around like a drunken Donkey Kong in a go-kart trying toedrags at the defensive blue line and getting pushed over by 5’8 170 pound wingers for five seasons.

 

[TFHockey]

Habs already have Patch in play and many think he is worth the 10th alone. So we have no base for a deal if you are not willing to add on top of Lucic and the 10th. How about future picks?

For a pending UFA.. I don't see it from Edmonton's perspective. I think the Habs can get value for Patches elsewhere. Maybe at the trade deadline?

Edmonton cannot afford to sign Pacioretty to a 7 million dollar a year deal.

 

[belair]

I posted this in another thread but it is very relevant here.

From David Staples, Edmonton Journal

"If Lucic is moved after July 1, the Oilers will have paid his $3.5 million bonus. The team that gets him will have to take his full $6 million cap hit for five more years, but won’t have to pay him $30 million over that time. Instead, they’ll owe just $22.5 million over the five years, $4.5 million a year. It’s also possible Lucic and his new team will agree to drop his No Movement Clause, which will protect that team if they don’t want to protect Lucic in an expansion draft. For a team on a budget, for a team where capping out isn’t an issue because they don’t intend to ever spend that much, Lucic projects as a decent winger earning $4.5 million per year. He doesn’t have to play on the top line to be OK value for that kind of pay."

Edmonton Oilers "confident" they can move Milan Lucic, but where might he end up?

The overall gist is that Lucic won't cost as much in actual dollars as everyone on here believes he will. Lucic at $4.5 Million is much more palatable than Lucic at $6 Million.

Yep. And for that team, in the instance Lucic clicks within that organization and returns to the 20-30-50 player he was a great ago, he becomes a valuable trade asset as his term becomes shorter. Teams also have the ability to retain salary to turn him into a positive trade asset.

The 'certainty' people speak with over the decline of production from players like him need to be taken with a grain of salt.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

I'm not trying to force Patch on the Oilers but there is an die hard Oilers fan at my office that likes Patch a lot. We just had that conversation actually. Patch is drowning in Montreal and I will tell you why. This is a very accurate report of Patch

- He value is a #3 or #4 forward, not as a #1 forward and captain
- He is a bit soft for a big player. This is the major weakness. It's not cause he is weak, it's cause he is a goal scoring forward that like to go to open space.
- He needs a workhorse line-mate. Radulov for example. I actually think Drai would be a good fit for Patch, not McDavid.
- His NHL shot and quick release is elite level. He will score goals
- He is elite level as a two way forward who plays well at both ends of the ice.
- He is excellent on the PK.

This is the true value for Patch. The softness is offset by his defensive awareness, his quick release, and his speed. He is a perfect forward to slot in behind McDavid, Drai, and RNH IMO. His speed would be an asset.

But again this scouting report is based on Good Pacioretty, the motivated 30 goal guy, not whatever showed up last season. Last season’s guy I wouldn’t give up either 10 or Yamamoto for, never mind both, Lucic or no Lucic.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Thats crazy, a pending UFA coming off a 17 goal season. I like Patches but if a GM thinks hes worth a 10th overall pick, I dont think hell be moved

Well the asking price at the deadline was steep and it should be. It's likely a bit less now but not much less. Lucic got the 13th pick, Jones (who was flipped for another 1st) and B prospect. Patch is definitely worth the 10th pick in most peoples eyes.

To rid yourself of Lucic and gain Patch (pre negotiated hand shake extension), while giving up the 10th would be a bitter pill to swallow but you get a very good goal scoring forward with speed.

RNH / McDavid / Rattie
Patch / Drai / Puljujarvi

This would be a very good top 6. Work on completing your D and you are contenders quickly. I would be cheering for Patch to score 40+ with the Oilers! No Joke

 

[Dan Kelly]

Habs already have Patch in play and many think he is worth the 10th alone. So we have no base for a deal if you are not willing to add on top of Lucic and the 10th. How about future picks?

I'm sure the Oilers are more than willing to negotiate but I'm trying to give you a sense of what is going on out here and I have heard literally nothing at all about Yam or Jesse being traded other than the media and fan proposals. A couple of players you mentioned like Lindgren and Ikonen are likely not the players the Oilers are looking for, especially Lindgren after the Oilers signed Koskinen. It'll be Talbot and either Koskinen or Montoya, with the loser going to the AHL. And Ikonen's numbers are hardly awe inspiring so the Oilers can do better.

 

[Habs Halifax]

For a pending UFA.. I don't see it from Edmonton's perspective. I think the Habs can get value for Patches elsewhere. Maybe at the trade deadline?

Edmonton cannot afford to sign Pacioretty to a 7 million dollar a year deal.

Yes they can... the Oilers would be replacing Lucic for 5 years at $6M. I actually think Patch might sign for $6.5M ish cause he is getting a fresh start and he fits well with the Oilers. It's a major upgrade and what? $1M more a year. Come on man

 

[Habs Halifax]

I'm sure the Oilers are more than willing to negotiate but I'm trying to give you a sense of what is going on out here and I have heard literally nothing at all about Yam or Jesse being traded other than the media and fan proposals. A couple of players you mentioned like Lindgren and Ikonen are likely not the players the Oilers are looking for, especially Lindgren after the Oilers signed Koskinen. It'll be Talbot and either Koskinen or Montoya, with the loser going to the AHL. And Ikonen's numbers are hardly awe inspiring so the Oilers can do better.

I bet you this same discussion is happening behind the scenes. Not all trade discussions between GM's are out there to the public.

 

[TFHockey]

Yes they can... the Oilers would be replacing Lucic for 5 years at $6M. I actually think Patch might sign for $6.5M ish cause he is getting a fresh start and he fits well with the Oilers. It's a major upgrade and what? $1M more a year. Come on man

We're kinda tight against the cap, some wiggle room, but not a ton. I think Edmonton looks to spend $$$ on the backend and get value contracts on the wing. Could be wrong.

 

[Hostile Offer]

But again this scouting report is based on Good Pacioretty, the motivated 30 goal guy, not whatever showed up last season. Last season’s guy I wouldn’t give up either 10 or Yamamoto for, never mind both, Lucic or no Lucic.

That is exactly what was wrong with him last season. He seemed to lack motivation, rather than be physically on a decline. It was obvious he didn't like to be in Montreal last year, whatever that reason may be. I think a lot of it is that there's too much pressure for him to be the Habs' captain, he always came out looking very frustrated in front of media. The guy needs a new home but even last year when we only saw a shadow of the Patches we know, he showed glimpses of his old self every now and then, especially around new year.

 

[Habs Halifax]

But again this scouting report is based on Good Pacioretty, the motivated 30 goal guy, not whatever showed up last season. Last season’s guy I wouldn’t give up either 10 or Yamamoto for, never mind both, Lucic or no Lucic.

You missed the point. Patch is like Kessel. He can't be a #1 forward on any team or he drowns. Patch needs a workhorse to be able to score his 30-40 goals. So does Ovi with the Caps in some degree. Imagine Ovi with the Habs last year. He drowns to cause we have no center depth and way too many soft forwards.

If you don't value Patch for who he really is and what he has done. Then forget about it. I want nothing to do with cherry picking one injured season where our complete team was a disaster. We will keep Patch if you are trying to get him for 17 goal value

 

[Habs Halifax]

We're kinda tight against the cap, some wiggle room, but not a ton. I think Edmonton looks to spend $$$ on the backend and get value contracts on the wing. Could be wrong.

So you are looking to unload Lucic and not take salary back? Trying to understand what you would like other teams to try to address.

 

[Dan Kelly]

I bet you this same discussion is happening behind the scenes. Not all trade discussions between GM's are out there to the public.

Oh for sure and i only quoted what I have heard and not heard. There is very definitely a deal that can be worked out between the two teams and if giving up the #10 pick at the draft in a deal for Max in perhaps a sign and trade, then so be it ! And if Klefbom or Puljujarvi or Yamamoto go the other way in addition to the pick for a package of picks and prospects , then so be it. I have no problems at all with the Habs getting 2 top 10 picks as long as what we get back actually HELPS the Oilers win!

 

[DownGoesMcDavid]

How does Chiarelli still have a job ??? Lucic contract can single handedly prevent Mcdavid from winning a cup in Edmonton.

What a disaster

 

[ChaoticOrange]

You missed the point. Patch is like Kessel. He can't be a #1 forward on any team or he drowns. Patch needs a workhorse to be able to score his 30-40 goals. So does Ovi with the Caps in some degree. Imagine Ovi with the Habs last year. He drowns to cause we have no center depth and way too many soft forwards.

If you don't value Patch for who he really is and what he has done. Then forget about it. I want nothing to do with cherry picking one injured season where our complete team was a disaster. We will keep Patch if you are trying to get him for 17 goal value

That again doesn’t jive. Pacioretty was the #1 guy in Montreal for years and years, and produced with 2nd tier centres like Plekanec and Desharnais, which is part of the reason I’m inclined to believe this is a regression, not a bad year. Montreal’s centres have always been poor and he’s managed just fine . In Kessel’s worst years he was still a hell of a player.

I think that’s the main issue. You’re trying to sell a 35 goal scorer, leader, and captain whereas we’re worried we’re buying a 17 goal scorer with motivation problems. I’m
not sure there’s a way to bridge that gap.

Mathias Brunet if La Presse proposed something like:

Lucic at full hit + 10th to Montreal

For

2nd+3rd+Prospect (unnamed)

It’s been roundly and rightly bashed into the dirt by the likes of local writers Staples and McCurdy, but...

All things considered I honestly would be more tempted by that offer than your original that had us losing both 10 and JP/Yams. At least this way we get full cap relief and aren’t riverboat gambling on Patches, and you could still deal him at the deadline for a 1st ++.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Oh for sure and i only quoted what I have heard and not heard. There is very definitely a deal that can be worked out between the two teams and if giving up the #10 pick at the draft in a deal for Max in perhaps a sign and trade, then so be it ! And if Klefbom or Puljujarvi or Yamamoto go the other way in addition to the pick for a package of picks and prospects , then so be it. I have no problems at all with the Habs getting 2 top 10 picks as long as what we get back actually HELPS the Oilers win!

I realize the Oilers want to improve their team without subtracting from their core. I get that. But unloading Lucic is a bit of a problem cause he lacks foot speed and he controls where he can be traded to while taking up a very large chunk of cap space. Adding the 10th pick and possibly other pieces does hurt but getting Patch in return from age 30-35 or 36 ish would be the upgrade that the Oilers need up front.

Lets say the deal goes down... Patch+ for Lucic and the 10th pick+. The + being prospects or futures on both sides.

2019/2019: 16 players signed with $16.6M in cap space ($80M cap). Patch-Lucic+$5M cap increase. That gives the Oilers room to make other moves even if Nurse needs a new contract. I'm pretty sure you can lock him up for a Slavin type deal ($5.3 AAV ish). So that's 17 players signed with just over $11M to work with.

2019/2020: 9 players signed with $34.8M in cap space ($3M in inflation factored in). Subtract the new contract for Patch ($7M max) and you have 10 players signed with $27.8M. Who needs contracts? Puljujarvi, Ratti, Talbot. I would expect bridge deals for both Ratti and Puljujarvi and not sure what Talbot would get. I would expect that after signing these 3, you have 13 players signed with around $17M (+/-) in cap space. Not a terrible situation and remember, Lucic is replaced with Patch.

 

[Habs Halifax]

That again doesn’t jive. Pacioretty was the #1 guy in Montreal for years and years, and produced with 2nd tier centres like Plekanec and Desharnais, which is part of the reason I’m inclined to believe this is a regression, not a bad year. Montreal’s centres have always been poor and he’s managed just fine . In Kessel’s worst years he was still a hell of a player.

I think that’s the main issue. You’re trying to sell a 35 goal scorer, leader, and captain whereas we’re worried we’re buying a 17 goal scorer with motivation problems. I’m
not sure there’s a way to bridge that gap.

Mathias Brunet if La Presse proposed something like:

Lucic at full hit + 10th to Montreal

For

2nd+3rd+Prospect (unnamed)

It’s been roundly and rightly bashed into the dirt by the likes of local writers Staples and McCurdy, but...

All things considered I honestly would be more tempted by that offer than your original that had us losing both 10 and JP/Yams. At least this way we get full cap relief and aren’t riverboat gambling on Patches, and you could still deal him at the deadline for a 1st ++.

Well, name me the centers Patch played with this past year?

And the adds of JP or Yams is just one example. You can also try to negotiate with future picks if you wish.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Well, name me the centers Patch played with this past year?

And the adds of JP or Yams is just one example. You can also try to negotiate with future picks if you wish.

Without looking it up I’m guessing ‘we wouldn’t move him for RNH’ Drouin and ‘he’s just as good as RNH’ Danault. At some point it’s the player’s fault, not his linemates.

I’m honestly not that invested in acquiring Pacioretty - to the point that I really don’t want to sink any other future assets into getting him.

10 + Lucic for Pacioretty (extended) + ?. That would be my base. If that’s not good enough then so be it.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Without looking it up I’m guessing ‘we wouldn’t move him for RNH’ Drouin and ‘he’s just as good as RNH’ Danault. At some point it’s the player’s fault, not his linemates.

I’m honestly not that invested in acquiring Pacioretty - to the point that I really don’t want to sink any other future assets into getting him.

10 + Lucic for Pacioretty (extended) + ?. That would be my base. If that’s not good enough then so be it.

If that is the line in the sand, I don't see it happening. Patch is worth the 10th pick alone to the majority of the Habs fan base. We are not taking on Lucic's contract without additions. You could use future 2nd round picks to even out it too (2019 and 2020). Those picks don't help your current core for what? 5-7 + years?

 

[le_sean]

Don’t want Lucic, even if you give your 10th plus your next two 1sts. He can rot in Edmonton.

 

[WesMcCauley]

I think youd be suprised. Probably 6-7 of the lower revenue teams in the NHL care more about actual $. That is money coming out of the owners pocket. Numerous deals have been made to save actual $ at the expense of cap hit, which they dont really care about much as they are not up against the cap anyway

I know, thats why i said not many teams. These teams also dont wanna take on money they dont have to and would most likely have to send a similar contract back.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

If that is the line in the sand, I don't see it happening. Patch is worth the 10th pick alone to the majority of the Habs fan base. We are not taking on Lucic's contract without additions. You could use future 2nd round picks to even out it too (2019 and 2020). Those picks don't help your current core for what? 5-7 + years?

Pacioretty isn’t worth 10 to Oiler fans, though.

That kind of thinking is what made our prospect pool embarrassing for most of the 00’s and well into the 2010’s. McDavid and Drai making 21 million, plus potentially Pacioretty accounting for another 7 and Nuge at 6, means we need all the darts we can possibly get to find cheap talent.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Pacioretty isn’t worth 10 to Oiler fans, though.

That kind of thinking is what made our prospect pool embarrassing for most of the 00’s and well into the 2010’s. McDavid and Drai making 21 million, plus potentially Pacioretty accounting for another 7 and Nuge at 6, means we need all the darts we can possibly get to find cheap talent.

I totally understand that and that's the war I went through with some other Habs fans. This is why I think a middle ground is Patch+ for Lucic and the 10th pick +. If we can agree on the additions, I think we have a base to a deal.

I am a big fan of Patch. He has scored huge goals for us but we all know the Habs lack of scoring in the playoffs. It has more to do with lack of depth at center than anything. Patch as a #3 or #4 forward is the perfect fit for him. If I'm trading him, I want him to be successful and score 40+ which I think he can with the Oilers. He flies under the radar a bit on your roster and it's a perfect situation.

However, we are not trading Patch as a 40+ goal scorer. We are trading him as a 30 +/- goal scorer. You can bank on 25+ but not on 40+. Adding his speed and NHL shot is an big upgrade.