Louis Magnus Division Semi Finals - Portland Rosebuds (2) vs Chicago Shamrocks (3)

[ImporterExporter]

Portland Rosebuds (1)

Coaches: Lester & Frank Patrick

Nels Stewart --- Hooley Smith --- Blake Wheeler
Tommy Smith --- Mickey MacKay --- Todd Bertuzzi
Leon Drasaitl --- Bill Thoms --- Joe Pavelski
Don Lever --- Mel Bridgeman --- Pat Flatley

Paul Coffey --- Fern Flaman
Gary Bergman --- Art Duncan
Clem Loughlin --- Brent Seabrook

Terry Sawchuk
John Bouse Hutton

PP1: Coffey - Duncan - T.Smith - Stewart - MacKay
PP2: Loughlin - Pavelski - Bertuzzi - Drasaitl - Wheeler
PK1: Bergman - Flaman - H.Smith - Thoms
PK2: Loughlin - Seabrook - MacKay - Bridgeman



VS



Chicago Shamrocks (3)

Coach: Glen Sather

Bobby Hull - Phil Goyette - Boris Mikhailov (A)
Paul Thompson - Milan Novy - Mark Recchi
Murray Murdoch - Jordan Staal - Jerry Toppazzini
Vsevolod Bobrov - John Tavares* - Jimmy Peters

Babe Siebert (A) - Eddie Gerard (C)
Pat Stapleton - Jiri Bubla
Dan Hamhuis - Ron Stackhouse

John Vanbiesbrouck
Pekka Rinne

Spares: Mike Fisher (C), Jay Pandolfo (LW), Marty McSorley (D/RW)


PP1
Recchi - Novy - Mikhailov
Stapleton - Hull

PP2
Thompson - Tavares - Bobrov
Stackhouse - Hull/Siebert

PK1
Staal - Toppazzini
Hamhuis - Gerard

PK2
Murdoch - Goyette
Siebert - Bubla

Extra PK F: Recchi, Hull
Extra PK D: Stapleton

-Most of the time Hull and Mikhailov will play with Phil Goyette as their center who can handle the defensive responsibilities of the line yet still has enough offensive skill to get the puck to Hull/Mikhailov so they can do their thing.

-*Occasionally on offensive zone starts Tavares will replace Goyette (or Novy if Tavares just came off).

-*Novy will be the primary center of the 2nd line, but Tavares will take some of his shifts.

-Jordan Staal will play on a shutdown line with Murdoch and Toppazzini with Peters taking some of Toppazzini's shifts.

- Murdoch may take an occasional shift for Thompson

- Mike Fisher will play a decent number of games in the regular season to keep Jordan Staal fresh/healthy.

Estimated Ice Time

Forwards
Player	ES	PP	PK	Total
Bo. Hull	16	5		21
P. Goyette	12		3	15
B. Mikhailov	15	4		19
P. Thompson	14	3		17
M. Novy	12	4		16
M. Recchi	15	3		18
M. Murdoch	11		3	14
J. Staal	10		4	14
J. Toppazzini	8		4	12
V. Bobrov	5	3		8
J. Tavares	12	4		16
J. Peters	8			8
TOTAL	138	27	14	179

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Defense
Player	ES	PP	PK	Total
B. Siebert	18	2	3	23
E. Gerard	19		4	23
P. Stapleton	16	4		20
J. Bubla	16		3	19
D. Hamhuis	12		4	16
R. Stackhouse	11	3		14
TOTAL	92	8	14	114

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

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[ResilientBeast]

Looking towards a good series @Hawkey Town 18

 

[ResilientBeast]

Getting it out of the way I think the biggest mismatch in this series will be Sawchuk vs Vanbiesbrouck without a doubt. Taking a goalie later often gives you value at other positions so we'll break it down further.

1st Lines

Stewart - Smith - Wheeler = 90.3 + 78.0 + 71.6 = 239.9

Hull - Goyette - Mikhalov = 108.3 + 75.2 + ??.? = 183.5 + ??.?

Mikhalov definitly makes up the difference in 7 Year VsX, so at a birds eye view I would say your top line is superior.

2nd Lines

Smith - MacKay - Bertuzzi = ??.? + ??.? + 68.5

Thompson - Novy - Recchi = 82.6 + ??.? + 88.4

Without concrete agreed upon VsX like tools I will omit any estimates for Smith and Mackay. Probably offensive advantage Chicago.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Getting it out of the way I think the biggest mismatch in this series will be Sawchuk vs Vanbiesbrouck without a doubt. Taking a goalie later often gives you value at other positions so we'll break it down further.

1st Lines

Stewart - Smith - Wheeler = 90.3 + 78.0 + 71.6 = 239.9

Hull - Goyette - Mikhalov = 108.3 + 75.2 + ??.? = 183.5 + ??.?

Mikhalov definitly makes up the difference in 7 Year VsX, so at a birds eye view I would say your top line is superior.

2nd Lines

Smith - MacKay - Bertuzzi = ??.? + ??.? + 68.5

Thompson - Novy - Recchi = 82.6 + ??.? + 88.4

Without concrete agreed upon VsX like tools I will omit any estimates for Smith and Mackay. Probably offensive advantage Chicago.

Thanks for posting these numbers. Taking a little closer look...

1st Lines
Without the unknown score of Mikhailov, Chicago's 1st line is only 56.4 behind Portland. To put this in perspective, HO's 7yr vs.X chart stops at 65.3 (Wilf Paiement). It is difficult to estimate Mikhailov's score, but let's look at the scores of some other wingers...

Iginla: 86.7
Blake: 86.3
Moore: 85.4
Joliat: 82.6
Hossa: 82.4
LeClair: 81.7
Fleury: 82.0
Heatley: 81.0

I think it is fair to say Mikhailov's offense is surely in the 80's (and likely closer to the mid 80's). This shows how large the offensive advantage is for Chicago.


2nd Lines
The centers Novy and MacKay both don't have vs.X scores, it seems clear to me that Novy is the superior offensive player here and MacKay the superior defensive player.

Tommy Smith is basically an all-offense player. I think it would be overly generous to give him a vs.X score equivalent to Mark Recchi whose score is about the same as Peter Stastny and Brett Hull. But even if we did that, there is still a very large difference between Thompson and Bertuzzi. Because of MacKay, Portland's line is better defensively, but it's not a huge gap as MacKay isn't really getting help from his wingers in that dept. Thompson followed by Recchi are probably the next 2 best defensive players on either line. The offensive gap is larger than the defensive gap, giving Chicago the better line.

 

[ResilientBeast]

Thought I would've hard more time to comment but I will just lay out of the case for Portland this afternoon/evening.

 

[ResilientBeast]

Thanks for posting these numbers. Taking a little closer look...

1st Lines
Without the unknown score of Mikhailov, Chicago's 1st line is only 56.4 behind Portland. To put this in perspective, HO's 7yr vs.X chart stops at 65.3 (Wilf Paiement). It is difficult to estimate Mikhailov's score, but let's look at the scores of some other wingers...

Iginla: 86.7
Blake: 86.3
Moore: 85.4
Joliat: 82.6
Hossa: 82.4
LeClair: 81.7
Fleury: 82.0
Heatley: 81.0

I think it is fair to say Mikhailov's offense is surely in the 80's (and likely closer to the mid 80's). This shows how large the offensive advantage is for Chicago.


2nd Lines
The centers Novy and MacKay both don't have vs.X scores, it seems clear to me that Novy is the superior offensive player here and MacKay the superior defensive player.

Tommy Smith is basically an all-offense player. I think it would be overly generous to give him a vs.X score equivalent to Mark Recchi whose score is about the same as Peter Stastny and Brett Hull. But even if we did that, there is still a very large difference between Thompson and Bertuzzi. Because of MacKay, Portland's line is better defensively, but it's not a huge gap as MacKay isn't really getting help from his wingers in that dept. Thompson followed by Recchi are probably the next 2 best defensive players on either line. The offensive gap is larger than the defensive gap, giving Chicago the better line.

Portland's offence up front is lacking, but is heavily supplimented by the play of Duncan and Coffey specifically.

The style the Rosebuds intend to play with is using Coffey and Duncan as the puck carriers for the offence to drive the play, relying on Hooley and MacKay to cover for them defensively and generate turnovers in the neutral zone. So while I started with a direct comparison with VsX it doesn't account for the third best offensive player in this series Paul Coffey.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Sorry I didn't have more time for this. Here's why I think Chicago will win the series...

- Portland does not have a strong shutdown pair or defensive RWer to help with Bobby Hull, who is the most dangerous offensive player in the series. Further, Hull is one of the best players to counter an offense relying on the defensemen to lead the rush. Hull's speed, which is among the best in the draft, will be a problem for Portland.

- Chicago's offense is built around it's wingers while Portland's best defensive forwards are at center, with a set of winger who are overall fairly weak defensively.

- Sawchuk is a strong goaltender and a large advantage over Vanbiesbrouck in the series, but Chicago has the offense to get to him, particularly the combination of Hull's shot with Mikhailov in front at both ES and especially on the PP.

 

[ResilientBeast]

If you haven't voted already why Portland should win

- Hull will be going against Flaman and Wentworth on the RH side for the majority of the game with Mackay and Hooley covering for Coffey and Duncan regularly. So sure Hull can counter attack after a Coffey rush but either of my centers will be back to support my RH D.

- Again my teams defensive strategy relies upon my centers backchecking to cover for offensive defensemen, the centers will cover who they need to in transition to prevent high quality scoring chances. This will mitigate the adventurous nature of my D to some extent and allow them to maximize their offensive potential.

- Vanbiesbrouck will need to outduel Sawchuk. I'm sure a Sather led team will be prone to giving up some high quality scoring chances as well.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Congrats RB and good luck going forward!