Long Term Draft Cycles

[Stephen]

All of the talk about the weak 2011 draft class has me wondering how the next few drafts will shake out. It seems like the draft usually runs in cycles, with successive strong drafts followed by weaker ones and then back again. The drafts in 1979 and the early 80s stocked the league with a generation of stars, the 1985 and 1986 drafts were a bit worse, the 1987-1993 drafts were quite strong, producing the next generation of stars, followed up with a pretty lukewarm string of drafts from 1994-1999, with maybe 97 and 98 being exceptions. During the late 90s, kids had a hard time breaking in and making an instant impact, and then after 2000, things started to change with the Heatley and Gaboriks and Kovalchuks of the world coming into the league.

Then the post lockout draft classes consisting of players drafted between 2003-2008 have looked very strong, leading their teams to championships, and achieving a lot of individual success early in their careers. The 2009 and 2010 classes look good but it's still very early to make a definitive judgement. That said, are we due for another downturn with some generally weak drafts on the horizon? Maybe some of you who follow this more extensively can make a guess..

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[boredmale]

The drafts in 1979

1979 was the first year* the NHL allowed 18 and 19 year olds to be drafted, so it was basically like 3 drafts in 1

*I believe there was one draft like in 74 that allowed players under 20 to be drafted as well but that was a one time thing(it also made for a bad couple drafts in 75 and 76)

 

[Stephen]

1979 was the first year* the NHL allowed 18 and 19 year olds to be drafted, so it was basically like 3 drafts in 1

*I believe there was one draft like in 74 that allowed players under 20 to be drafted as well but that was a one time thing(it also made for a bad couple drafts in 75 and 76)

Yep, it was basically the 1959, 1960 and 1961 birth years all rolled up in one.

 

[Barbadian91]

I dont know. I think this draft is decent, obviously not the best in recent memory but not terrible. Also, looking ahead to the 2012 draft it looks as if it could be the best draft since 2003. IMO I dont think that there really is that much of a pattern in terms of draft strength.

 

[Nalens Oga]

I don't believe in this cycle thing unless someone wants to point out a reason for it, I think it's just an unrelated anomaly.

It might depend more on NHL team development. Maybe the talent was just as good in what turned out to be a poor draft BUT the players were never developed because there were less NHL job openings in the season right after that, maybe they were filled up by a lot of players from preceding drafts making those drafts seem stronger.

Also, you're gonna have a weak draft once in a while but it doesn't mean that there's a pattern or cycle.

 

[cheerupmurray]

I still think it's a bit wierd that it can differ so much between two draft years, the 2007 draft for example looks much weaker than 2006 and 2008. Theres Patrick Kane and some more guys but it can not compare to the surrounding drafts.

Next year doesn't look so very strong from a swedish perspective. Theres some top-players like Collberg and Filip Forsberg but on a whole it's not nearly as strong as 2009 or 2011 that shaping up to be a pretty good draft for sweden.

So if 2012 is going to be a new 2003, Sweden probably wont play a big part in that. 2013 however looks much better for Sweden.

 

[leoleo3535]

I don't see how this draft is weak at all.

My opinion ... and I will only deal with the WHL, AJHL, BCHL as those are the only players I have seen alot of live-

This is a very deep draft.
You have the name guys at 1-3 etc...beyond that even just using WHL players teams picking anywhere from 5-90 are going to walk away with a very good player.

I sit with NHL scouts at games 15-20 times per month and I honestly don't remember a single one complaining about the talent pool in this draft.
Many others also feel this draft has tons of talent beyond the top 3 or 4 players-

"This year's Draft has a lot of quality players beyond pick No. 15 and some say well into the third round," David Gregory , NHL Central Scouting

"The good news about this is that any team selecting in the top of the Draft, even as far down as No. 10 or 11, could end up with the best player available in 2011," Central Scouting's David Gregory

Hakan Andersson (Det) and Al Murray (TB) "the 2011 Entry Draft in St. Paul, Minn., could be one of the deepest pools in recent memory."

"If you talk to most people, they'll probably tell you three players have established themselves as the frontrunners for the top picks. After that, there's probably a group of 20-30 players who can all shuffle around in any order, moving higher or lower in the draft. I think we're looking at 2-3 rounds deep of really strong players before we finally reach a cutoff."
-- Al Murray (TB)

"It looks pretty good; an above-average draft,whether it's going to be one of the deepest or a little over average, it's too early, but there are a good number of interesting players." Hakan Andersson (Det)

While there may not be a marquee prospect for teams to target, McGuire believes it could end up being a better draft overall. (Sportsnet)

"If you have Sidney Crosby and a (lesser) group below him, some make the mistake of saying it's a good draft," said McGuire. "But it's only a good draft for the one team of 30 that drafts first. ...

"I'd argue that this is a deeper and better draft because the No. 6 picking team doesn't have to scramble to be one or two. They may get the best player in the draft at six."

 

[Gobo]

It's not a bad draft. Good depth, alright high-end talent.

Next year should be the year of the defenseman + Yakupov.

 

[R S]

I don't see how this draft is weak at all.

My opinion ... and I will only deal with the WHL, AJHL, BCHL as those are the only players I have seen alot of live-

This is a very deep draft.
You have the name guys at 1-3 etc...beyond that even just using WHL players teams picking anywhere from 5-90 are going to walk away with a very good player.

I sit with NHL scouts at games 15-20 times per month and I honestly don't remember a single one complaining about the talent pool in this draft.
Many others also feel this draft has tons of talent beyond the top 3 or 4 players-

"This year's Draft has a lot of quality players beyond pick No. 15 and some say well into the third round," David Gregory , NHL Central Scouting

"The good news about this is that any team selecting in the top of the Draft, even as far down as No. 10 or 11, could end up with the best player available in 2011," Central Scouting's David Gregory

Hakan Andersson (Det) and Al Murray (TB) "the 2011 Entry Draft in St. Paul, Minn., could be one of the deepest pools in recent memory."

"If you talk to most people, they'll probably tell you three players have established themselves as the frontrunners for the top picks. After that, there's probably a group of 20-30 players who can all shuffle around in any order, moving higher or lower in the draft. I think we're looking at 2-3 rounds deep of really strong players before we finally reach a cutoff."
-- Al Murray (TB)

"It looks pretty good; an above-average draft,whether it's going to be one of the deepest or a little over average, it's too early, but there are a good number of interesting players." Hakan Andersson (Det)

While there may not be a marquee prospect for teams to target, McGuire believes it could end up being a better draft overall. (Sportsnet)

"If you have Sidney Crosby and a (lesser) group below him, some make the mistake of saying it's a good draft," said McGuire. "But it's only a good draft for the one team of 30 that drafts first. ...

"I'd argue that this is a deeper and better draft because the No. 6 picking team doesn't have to scramble to be one or two. They may get the best player in the draft at six."

More people need to read and search out info like this. It drives me nuts when people continue to complain about the depth of 2011.

 

[calcal798]

More people need to read and search out info like this. It drives me nuts when people continue to complain about the depth of 2011.

I was one of those people. But i've started to see that from pick 15-40 the players are very interchangeable and will be drafted on what the team is looking for. I'm excited to see what happens during it as well.