jaster
Might be back on probation.
- Jun 8, 2007
- 13,235
- 8,429
There simply isn't one at this time. I've seen fretting about it in nearly every thread. Hand-wringing over the possibility of Tatar being waived or traded. Anger over Cleary possibly coming back, to join Bert and Sammy as "the old useless fart trifecta." Frustration over a perceived plethora of 4th-liners taking spots away from prospects. I understand people have their favorites and their loathed scapegoats, or hate veterans and love prospects, but let's add some perspective in terms of the "logjam at forward" idea.....
First of all, it's the middle of June. We are not on the verge of training camp. There's two and a half months to sort things out. That alone precludes a logjam. There may be a lot of logs floating down a narrowing river, but they aren't jammed yet, and there's time to clear away a few that are closer to the riverbank. And there are some close to the riverbank.
There are 17 forwards in play, and the Wings will almost certainly carry 14, so at least 3 need to go. By my count, there are only 11 forwards who are sure bets to be on the roster:
Sure Bets
Zetterberg
Datsyuk
Franzen
Cleary
Tootoo
Abdelkader
Miller
Eaves
Andersson
Nyquist
Tatar
Yes, I have Cleary as a sure bet. He wants to come back, the Wings want him back.... there is literally no obstacle in front of Cleary being re-signed, imo.
I also think Eaves and Tootoo are also perfectly safe. The Wings value both players, and both are under contract. Neither are going anywhere, assuming they stay healthy.
That leaves 6 guys for 3 spots; 3 forwards will have to be traded, waived, bought out, placed on LTIR, or allowed to leave via free agency. Looking at each category....
Free Agency
Filppula - It would appear that he is as good as gone. I don't believe the Wings aren't trying to re-sign him, but how half-hearted is the attempt? He's reportedly asking for much more than the Wings are willing to pay, his level of play has drastically dropped off, and we have at least one kid who is ready to step into the top-6. He's a perfect candidate to open a spot for a younger player. I think he's almost certainly gone.
Brunner - Like Cleary, the Wings want him and he wants the Wings. But unlike Cleary, his exact value is not clear, and he's young enough to try to get a bigger contract elsewhere. I believe he and the Wings will come to an agreement, but I don't think it's a certainty. It's possible we lose him.
LTIR
Helm - This back thing really sucks. Much more for him than his fans, I'm sure. Will he be healthy at the start of next season? I have no freakin' clue, and I don't believe anyone else who posts here has a clue either, regardless of optimism or defeatist attitudes. He could be perfectly healthy and ready to go, or be put right back on the IR, neither would surprise me. He's a complete wildcard.
Bertuzzi - His back is in pretty bad shape as well. And he's old. Will he heal enough? Again, it's a question mark. If he's not ready to go, but thinks he will be at some point, he's an LTIR candidate.
Samuelsson - Bad shoulder. May have surgery. If he hasn't been bought out, he's another LTIR candidate.
Buy Out
Samuelsson - He appears to be the most likely forward to be bought out, given his combination of cap hit, health, and performance. More likely than not, I think the Wings will not buy him out, but I won't be surprised if they do.
Bertuzzi - Similar to Samuelsson, his effectiveness is questionable and he also has health problems. But he's cheaper and I get the impression the Wings think more of him than they do Sammy. Bert is probably the second most likely forward to be bought out. If he's not ready to go health-wise, and doesn't think he ever will be, he's a clear buy out candidate.
Waived
Emmerton - The guy who probably has to wait and see what happens to everyone else. But namely Helm. I think if Helm isn't ready, they hang on to Emmerton to be the 4th-line forward. And if Helm is ready, and there's still a roster crunch, Emmerton is prime waiver material.
Traded
None - I don't think it's necessary, given the other options here, but it's certainly a possibility.
With Filppula virtually gone, and either Helm on LTIR or Emmerton waived, there's only one more spot to be cleared. And both Bertuzzi and Samuelsson are strong candidates for buy outs. At this point I would bet that one of them does in fact get bought out (if Bert decides his playing days are over, it will be him; if not, it will be Samuelsson). And now we're down to 14. No worries about Miller blocking Tatar, "the old useless fart trifecta" staying together, or Cleary eating Detroit-area babies. I know this leaves no room for Horton, but he wasn't coming here anyway
First of all, it's the middle of June. We are not on the verge of training camp. There's two and a half months to sort things out. That alone precludes a logjam. There may be a lot of logs floating down a narrowing river, but they aren't jammed yet, and there's time to clear away a few that are closer to the riverbank. And there are some close to the riverbank.
There are 17 forwards in play, and the Wings will almost certainly carry 14, so at least 3 need to go. By my count, there are only 11 forwards who are sure bets to be on the roster:
Sure Bets
Zetterberg
Datsyuk
Franzen
Cleary
Tootoo
Abdelkader
Miller
Eaves
Andersson
Nyquist
Tatar
Yes, I have Cleary as a sure bet. He wants to come back, the Wings want him back.... there is literally no obstacle in front of Cleary being re-signed, imo.
I also think Eaves and Tootoo are also perfectly safe. The Wings value both players, and both are under contract. Neither are going anywhere, assuming they stay healthy.
That leaves 6 guys for 3 spots; 3 forwards will have to be traded, waived, bought out, placed on LTIR, or allowed to leave via free agency. Looking at each category....
Free Agency
Filppula - It would appear that he is as good as gone. I don't believe the Wings aren't trying to re-sign him, but how half-hearted is the attempt? He's reportedly asking for much more than the Wings are willing to pay, his level of play has drastically dropped off, and we have at least one kid who is ready to step into the top-6. He's a perfect candidate to open a spot for a younger player. I think he's almost certainly gone.
Brunner - Like Cleary, the Wings want him and he wants the Wings. But unlike Cleary, his exact value is not clear, and he's young enough to try to get a bigger contract elsewhere. I believe he and the Wings will come to an agreement, but I don't think it's a certainty. It's possible we lose him.
LTIR
Helm - This back thing really sucks. Much more for him than his fans, I'm sure. Will he be healthy at the start of next season? I have no freakin' clue, and I don't believe anyone else who posts here has a clue either, regardless of optimism or defeatist attitudes. He could be perfectly healthy and ready to go, or be put right back on the IR, neither would surprise me. He's a complete wildcard.
Bertuzzi - His back is in pretty bad shape as well. And he's old. Will he heal enough? Again, it's a question mark. If he's not ready to go, but thinks he will be at some point, he's an LTIR candidate.
Samuelsson - Bad shoulder. May have surgery. If he hasn't been bought out, he's another LTIR candidate.
Buy Out
Samuelsson - He appears to be the most likely forward to be bought out, given his combination of cap hit, health, and performance. More likely than not, I think the Wings will not buy him out, but I won't be surprised if they do.
Bertuzzi - Similar to Samuelsson, his effectiveness is questionable and he also has health problems. But he's cheaper and I get the impression the Wings think more of him than they do Sammy. Bert is probably the second most likely forward to be bought out. If he's not ready to go health-wise, and doesn't think he ever will be, he's a clear buy out candidate.
Waived
Emmerton - The guy who probably has to wait and see what happens to everyone else. But namely Helm. I think if Helm isn't ready, they hang on to Emmerton to be the 4th-line forward. And if Helm is ready, and there's still a roster crunch, Emmerton is prime waiver material.
Traded
None - I don't think it's necessary, given the other options here, but it's certainly a possibility.
With Filppula virtually gone, and either Helm on LTIR or Emmerton waived, there's only one more spot to be cleared. And both Bertuzzi and Samuelsson are strong candidates for buy outs. At this point I would bet that one of them does in fact get bought out (if Bert decides his playing days are over, it will be him; if not, it will be Samuelsson). And now we're down to 14. No worries about Miller blocking Tatar, "the old useless fart trifecta" staying together, or Cleary eating Detroit-area babies. I know this leaves no room for Horton, but he wasn't coming here anyway