Prospect Info: Logan Stanley - Part III

[Channelcat]

I'd say he is about where you expect a player like him to be in the AHL. Not standing out in any good or bad way. Just plotting along. It could be much better but it could be much much worse as well.

Yes, for a gangly 20 year old D he is doing fine and continues to improve. Unless he regresses I'm not worried at all. He is definately a project. He'll never put up points in the NHL, but if he can be a good 6 or 7 shutdown D...no worries.

 

[Jets4Life]

It’s the same stat that says Chiarot is better than Byfuglien, Trouba, or Morrissey than they are over Morrow or Myers.

Yes, we are aware you hate Stanley.

He has already exceeded some forum members expectations, if he is one of the top Moose D-men.

 

[Daximus]

Yes, we are aware you hate Stanley.

He has already exceeded some forum members expectations, if he is one of the top Moose D-men.

I'd put him at #4 or 5 on the Moose. Though haven't seen much of Green so hard to compare them at this stage. Nogier is also more polished defensively but worse offensively.

 

[garret9]

Yes, we are aware you hate Stanley.

He has already exceeded some forum members expectations, if he is one of the top Moose D-men.

I don't hate Stanley. I do hate poor use of stats, or use of poor stats. People were citing a stat as evidence, and I was pointing out what that same stat also suggested.

He hasn't exceeded my expectations, but been right on them. From the day before the draft I said this:

This is nothing against Stanley, despite what some of this article may make it look like. The truth is that Stanley is still a legitimate NHL prospect that would be a welcomed addition to the Jets’ prospect cupboard. The issue is the opportunity cost in there likely still being better options available at pick number 22 and Stanley’s numbers need to be considered when taking player’s ceiling, floor, and likelihood of making the NHL as a regular contributor.
I get why there is the appeal. Stanley’s size balances out Jets’ top left-hand prospect Josh Morrissey. Even without knowing anything else, the thought of a 6’7 left hand defender playing in a top-four that includes Morrissey and Jacob Trouba is quite alluring. If Morrissey, Trouba, and Stanley all hit their potential ceilings, the Jets would be a hard team to play against for years.
The biggest issue with all this is that there is the need for a conditional qualifier with “if” which means there is a chance that it could not come to pass. Now, there is always chance with any prospect that they could become great or totally bust, but the chance is not equal in each case.
…and there are many signs that Stanley won’t be the best chance available.

and

“So Stanley is terrible and should not be drafted?”
No. That’s not true.
As I noted before, Stanley is still a player I would welcome into the Jets’ organization. After all the flaws I have pointed out, there are still aspects to his game that makes him better than other players who will be drafted, even to the Jets. There is also the chance that Stanley could be the exception and I understand there are things some professional scouts may have seen that I have not.
However, my issue is that Stanley is not a player that I would want my team to select at 22nd overall, as there are going to be players who have garnered results that indicate higher ceilings and lower floors. Even at the Jets 36th overall pick, I’d still be skeptical.
Where would I draft Stanley? I would use a third round pick on him, but he won’t be around then and the Jets’ do not have a third anyways. If the Jets do draft Stanley at 22nd or 36th overall, I hope they make up for it by garnering plus value later in the draft. Otherwise, the Jets could end up with another Lucas Sutter on their hands.
While there are differences that separate the Sutter pick and what would happen if the Jets took Stanley, there are comparisons as well. Sutter at the time was still a legitimate NHL prospect, had a projectable frame, scored but not well, had limited upside, and was taken earlier than he should have been.
Play the odds and remember that scoring matters.

I think that's both fair and accurate.

 

[ffh]

It’s the same stat that says Chiarot is better than Byfuglien, Trouba, or Morrissey than they are over Morrow or Myers.

Is it the same stat that says petan is better tanev and lowry.

 

[lomiller1]

I think that's both fair and accurate.

Yeah the issue was never "Stanley is bad" but rather that there were much better D prospects available at that spot. I can't see him catching up to Cholowski who was available and slotted to go around then on most lists. There were other good D prospects to take there as well, but IIRC most would have been available a bit later, trading down may have been an option.

 

[Jimby]

Last night I was half watching the Oilers / Yotes and saw Jakob Chychrun, chosen two spots before Stanley, make an epic turnover gaff which may not be unccommon in the AH but is not one I have seen Stanley make. He is in his third year playing in the NHL though. Sometimes a draft pick playing in the NHL and not in the AHL is not an indication of vastly superior talent.

 

[Gil Fisher]

Yeah the issue was never "Stanley is bad" but rather that there were much better D prospects available at that spot. I can't see him catching up to Cholowski who was available and slotted to go around then on most lists. There were other good D prospects to take there as well, but IIRC most would have been available a bit later, trading down may have been an option.

Didn't Cholowski go right before us? I recall a run on D. I think the next best was Clague who was rated high 2nd rounder. I think the move there was to take a forward or trade back in the draft.

 

[Royale With Cheese]

Last night I was half watching the Oilers / Yotes and saw Jakob Chychrun, chosen two spots before Stanley, make an epic turnover gaff which may not be unccommon in the AH but is not one I have seen Stanley make. He is in his third year playing in the NHL though. Sometimes a draft pick playing in the NHL and not in the AHL is not an indication of vastly superior talent.

I think most folks would put Chychrun far, far, far above Stanley in any comparison to be honest.

 

[ffh]

Didn't Cholowski go right before us? I recall a run on D. I think the next best was Clague who was rated high 2nd rounder. I think the move there was to take a forward or trade back in the draft.

going off memory the jets thought Detroit was taking Stanley so we moved up ahead of them and took him. Detroit then took cholowski.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

My thoughts on Stanley this year is he is working on his game. Needs to add some more offense but offense is hard to come by on that Moose team this year. He has gone from being sheltered early to playing top pair minutes lately which leads me to think he is on an upwards trajectory. I think he projects to play 2nd fiddle to a better offensive D man and I think he plays in the top 4 kind of like a Brenden Dillion or Brayden Mcnabb or yes Ben Chairot. Play 17 to 20 minutes with a riverboat gambler as your D partner and probably get hated for it by the fan base

 

[Jimby]

Sure. Because he is playing in the NHL. What other metric are they using to evaluate him? His first year in the league he was the Yotes 6th best D (5 on 5 adjusted corsi) and now in his 3rd year he is still their 6th best. Is that progression? "Far, far, far above" seems a stretch. If Winnipeg had drafted him he would still be on the Moose.

I think most folks would put Chychrun far, far, far above Stanley in any comparison to be honest.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The fact that Stanley is managing reasonably well as a 20-year old rookie D in the AHL is actually quite encouraging. I thought he might struggle substantially with the increased speed at the AHL level. This season has been a positive marker on his overall development trajectory, I think.

Agree. I thought this would be a tough season for him. He is doing better than I expected. He is still a long term project but he is progressing well.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'd put him at #4 or 5 on the Moose. Though haven't seen much of Green so hard to compare them at this stage. Nogier is also more polished defensively but worse offensively.

Hey! Nogier's been coming on offensively lately. He's up to 7 pts in 50 games. Thought he had finally scored a goal the other day. They must have taken it away from him. Should have known he couldn't have scored.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Last night I was half watching the Oilers / Yotes and saw Jakob Chychrun, chosen two spots before Stanley, make an epic turnover gaff which may not be unccommon in the AH but is not one I have seen Stanley make. He is in his third year playing in the NHL though. Sometimes a draft pick playing in the NHL and not in the AHL is not an indication of vastly superior talent.

We judge players based on one play now?

Chychrun's progress has been limited by injuries but he is scoring at a higher rate in the NHL than Logan is in the AHL.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Didn't Cholowski go right before us? I recall a run on D. I think the next best was Clague who was rated high 2nd rounder. I think the move there was to take a forward or trade back in the draft.

Cholowski went 2 spots after Stanley. 5 spots after Stanley was Henrik Borgstrom. Another 5 was Lucas Johansson.

 

[Gil Fisher]

Cholowski went 2 spots after Stanley. 5 spots after Stanley was Henrik Borgstrom. Another 5 was Lucas Johansson.

Hindsight is 20/20, but my main point is it was early to take any of the defensemen at 18 once Chychrun and Fabbro were gone. Seemed like a bit of a panic move at the time.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Hindsight is 20/20, but my main point is it was early to take any of the defensemen at 18 once Chychrun and Fabbro were gone. Seemed like a bit of a panic move at the time.

That is one of several points that apply. Another is that Stanley was neither the BDA, nor the BPA at 22, much less at 18. If Detroit wanted him, so what?

All water under the bridge now. Stanley is ours now and he is still a prospect making his way toward the NHL. It does demonstrate that Chevy and the Jets scouting staff are not infallible though.

 

[Channelcat]

Game about to start on TSN

 

[ffh]

That is one of several points that apply. Another is that Stanley was neither the BDA, nor the BPA at 22, much less at 18. If Detroit wanted him, so what?

All water under the bridge now. Stanley is ours now and he is still a prospect making his way toward the NHL. It does demonstrate that Chevy and the Jets scouting staff are not infallible though.

exactly how does it demonstrate that they are infallible. other then besides you don't like the pick. which isnt a valid reason. because a player starting his career earlier than a player picked before him is meaningless.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

exactly how does it demonstrate that they are infallible. other then besides you don't like the pick. which isnt a valid reason. because a player starting his career earlier than a player picked before him is meaningless.

It demonstrates that they are not infallible in that they did not do the best that could have been done with those picks.

If you believe Stanley was the BPA at that point, well you are entitled to that opinion. Not much else to say.

 

[ffh]

It demonstrates that they are not infallible in that they did not do the best that could have been done with those picks.

If you believe Stanley was the BPA at that point, well you are entitled to that opinion. Not much else to say.

players don't stop developing at 18. what do you know that they don't.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

players don't stop developing at 18. what do you know that they don't.

Stanley is not 18 now. In hindsight, was he the BPA at 18?

 

[ffh]

Stanley is not 18 now. In hindsight, was he the BPA at 18?

you draft by projecting out. was scheifele the 7th best prospect in 2011. I will let you know in 10 years if Stanley was the best available.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

you draft by projecting out. was scheifele the 7th best prospect in 2011. I will let you know in 10 years if Stanley was the best available.

OK. See you in 10 years.