Confirmed with Link: Lindsay Hofford Leaves Leafs | Hired as AGM & Dir. Of Scouting By ARI

[stickty111]

Good. Hofford wasnt all that great anyway. Dubas didnt promote so he wasnt really valued. Plus if a team like Arizona takes you, then it isnt a great sign.
Our scouting with Hunter wasnt impressive. People need to realize Hunter isnt the golden draft expert, and if you say something negative about him, you dont have to start criticizing Dubas. Our scouting looks better. There isnt a lot of evidence to say that it hasn't.

 

[DarkKnight]

Good. Hofford wasnt all that great anyway. Dubas didnt promote so he wasnt really valued. Plus if a team like Arizona takes you, then it isnt a great sign.
Our scouting with Hunter wasnt impressive. People need to realize Hunter isnt the golden draft expert, and if you say something negative about him, you dont have to start criticizing Dubas. Our scouting looks better. There isnt a lot of evidence to say that it hasn't.

I have no idea how anyone can say our "scouting looks better"? We promoted two guys with sketchy track records, we are weaker overseas right now, no question, and we've lost good people. I mean you can like the adds I suppose, but to say "better" just reeks of predetermined bias. Anyways, this stuff goes nowhere, cheers.

 

[Apotheosis]

I'd take Marner over all those defenders back then, and would still today, with only Provorov being that debatable right now. Marner would also put up 80 points if he got 3 minutes and 45 seconds a game on the powerplay. I definitely wouldn't have traded Marner for Hanifin or for Dougie Hamilton. Marner if he reaches his potential as a Kane or Giroux like offensive force, is not worse than a Noah Hanifin who hits his potential.

Again, if you get a franchise winger at 4, and hit on one of 2 second round picks you did well drafting from that region, regardless if the other players took turn into nothing. Seriously, one out of 5 2nd rounders actually become something of value. In the 4th or later, it is very rare to get a valued NHLer who isn't replaceable by waivers.

I don't get why this is so hard for people to understand. I can't believe it's over 4 years later and people still are on the "we should have drafted Hanifin" stage. Guys. He was sheltered in Carolina and still outperformed by essentially all of his peers. Marner has a superior ceiling in his position and is already producing and showing much more than him.

 

[Growler]

He'll most likely let his buddy Clark run the region, which he was going to do anyway. Lilley is our new director of Amateur Scouting, and he is primarily based in the North East. The official pecking order is.

Director of Player Personnel (Morrison) - Assistant Director of Player Personnel (Wes Clark) - Director of Scouting (Lilley) - Regional Directors (currently just Speltz and Vuori) - Local Scouts

Now, who knows if they actually officially replace Lilley and Hofford's title. As pointed out previously, who runs a teams draft board is generally unclear by titles. Sometimes, its an AGM like Trevor Timmins and previously Mark Hunter here, other times its a Director of Player Personnel (originally Hunters title, and Gordie Clark of the Rangers title) and in some cases such as Calgary its the Director of Am-Scouting like Tod Button.

What's your take on drafting the past 3 years and its direction going forward?

 

[thewave]

Fantastic place to goKart all year round. Drinks are also substantially cheaper $/L and I am sure he will get a bit of a pay raise as well.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I'd take Marner over all those defenders back then, and would still today, with only Provorov being that debatable right now. Marner would also put up 80 points if he got 3 minutes and 45 seconds a game on the powerplay. I definitely wouldn't have traded Marner for Hanifin or for Dougie Hamilton. Marner if he reaches his potential as a Kane or Giroux like offensive force, is not worse than a Noah Hanifin who hits his potential.

Again, if you get a franchise winger at 4, and hit on one of 2 second round picks you did well drafting from that region, regardless if the other players took turn into nothing. Seriously, one out of 5 2nd rounders actually become something of value. In the 4th or later, it is very rare to get a valued NHLer who isn't replaceable by waivers.

How many of those 2nd rounders make it to the AHL? I'm not talking about making it to the NHL. That is just down to a numbers game and how well you can develop them. If they consitently develop at a reasonable clip and still can not make it, I do not even count that as a loss. For example, if Timashov ends up not making it, I would not call him a bad pick or even blame the development team.

In 2015, 9 out of 15 players (excluding Korostelev and Desrocher) drafted out of the CHL after Desrocher at least made it to the AHL with the team that drafted them (i.e. their rights did not expire). 7 out of 14 after Mattinen in the 2016 draft. 54% between those drafts is not an amazing number, and obviously most (if not all) of them will probably not even make it to the NHL or even become great AHL players, but at least they made it there. Leafs went 0/3 with one having an asterisk due to injury (Korostelev).

In my books, if you are drafted out of the CHL and do not at least make it to the AHL, it was a bad pick unless there is a really unfortunate circumstance like an injury that totally killed them. Of course, as you get to earlier rounds, those expectations get higher.

Hitting on a top 5 pick and also doing well on Dermott in the 2015 draft is nice work, but it is pretty average considering the amount of praise Hunter/Hofford received for being some elite scout and the number of picks he totally whiffed on as well. I would expect most scouts who can not do something similar to that end up fired eventually. Dubas should and can do better than at least Hofford in that region if we are going based on his Leafs track record to date.

 

[FlareKnight]

Well, adios to him. Best of luck out there.

Doesn't really matter. Fully expect "Hunter's guys" to leave as time goes on. Just creates room to hire new people. There's plenty of scouts out there.

 

[Smif]

All I know is I really disliked our 2016 & 2017 drafts and loved our 2015 & 2018 drafts. Obviously, not including our 1st Rd picks...

 

[thewave]

All I know is I really disliked our 2016 & 2017 drafts and loved our 2015 & 2018 drafts. Obviously, not including our 1st Rd picks...

Agreed. The Lou drafts sucked imho.

 

[Stephen]

Aside from the slam dunk first rounders and Travis Dermott, none of our drafts from 2015-2018 have yielded anything yet.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Losing people to higher positions is the mark of a good organization that can develop talent. Good for him. I hope is continues to be successful!

 

[Stephen]

Losing people to higher positions is the mark of a good organization that can develop talent. Good for him. I hope is continues to be successful!

I think this is true of long successful organizations, but you can't operate with a constant brain drain and zero continuity.

 

[Growler]

My definition of an excellent scouting staff is as follows:
1. Never blows a top 10 pick
2. First round picks always make enough NHL games to qualify for a pension
3. 50%+ of second round picks make the NHL for 100 GP
4. Picks in rounds 3 to 6 always at least are good enough to warrant an AHL deal, especially with the Leafs who offer more AHL contracts than anyone else - even if they play more ECHL than AHL. SHL and KHL contracts also qualify.
5. 1 pick from every 3 drafts from the 6th or 7th rounds qualifies for an ELC.

 

[AppsSyl]

How many of those 2nd rounders make it to the AHL? I'm not talking about making it to the NHL. That is just down to a numbers game and how well you can develop them. If they consitently develop at a reasonable clip and still can not make it, I do not even count that as a loss. For example, if Timashov ends up not making it, I would not call him a bad pick or even blame the development team.

In 2015, 9 out of 15 players (excluding Korostelev and Desrocher) drafted out of the CHL after Desrocher at least made it to the AHL with the team that drafted them (i.e. their rights did not expire). 7 out of 14 after Mattinen in the 2016 draft. 54% between those drafts is not an amazing number, and obviously most (if not all) of them will probably not even make it to the NHL or even become great AHL players, but at least they made it there. Leafs went 0/3 with one having an asterisk due to injury (Korostelev).

In my books, if you are drafted out of the CHL and do not at least make it to the AHL, it was a bad pick unless there is a really unfortunate circumstance like an injury that totally killed them. Of course, as you get to earlier rounds, those expectations get higher.

Hitting on a top 5 pick and also doing well on Dermott in the 2015 draft is nice work, but it is pretty average considering the amount of praise Hunter/Hofford received for being some elite scout and the number of picks he totally whiffed on as well. I would expect most scouts who can not do something similar to that end up fired eventually. Dubas should and can do better than at least Hofford in that region if we are going based on his Leafs track record to date.

No offence, but how many years do they say you need to properly judge a draft?
If you are not sure, the answer is 5 years.
It has been...
3 years since 2015
2 years since 2016
1 year since 2017
How can you say with certainty we haven't hit on this or hit on that when we are only 3 years out from the first draft Hunter ran?

 

[93LEAFS]

How many of those 2nd rounders make it to the AHL? I'm not talking about making it to the NHL. That is just down to a numbers game and how well you can develop them. If they consitently develop at a reasonable clip and still can not make it, I do not even count that as a loss. For example, if Timashov ends up not making it, I would not call him a bad pick or even blame the development team.

In 2015, 9 out of 15 players (excluding Korostelev and Desrocher) drafted out of the CHL after Desrocher at least made it to the AHL with the team that drafted them (i.e. their rights did not expire). 7 out of 14 after Mattinen in the 2016 draft. 54% between those drafts is not an amazing number, and obviously most (if not all) of them will probably not even make it to the NHL or even become great AHL players, but at least they made it there. Leafs went 0/3 with one having an asterisk due to injury (Korostelev).

In my books, if you are drafted out of the CHL and do not at least make it to the AHL, it was a bad pick unless there is a really unfortunate circumstance like an injury that totally killed them. Of course, as you get to earlier rounds, those expectations get higher.

Hitting on a top 5 pick and also doing well on Dermott in the 2015 draft is nice work, but it is pretty average considering the amount of praise Hunter/Hofford received for being some elite scout and the number of picks he totally whiffed on as well. I would expect most scouts who can not do something similar to that end up fired eventually. Dubas should and can do better than at least Hofford in that region if we are going based on his Leafs track record to date.

It doesn't matter where a player flames out unless you capitalized on the value through trade. I care about what it provides in regards to a return rate to the NHL. I guess you care more about that return rate. In my eyes, all that matters is being successful providing talent to the NHL level. Getting a top 4 defender at 33 is a very good pick. Getting a franchise winger at 4 is also great work.

What I care about is the finished product being good, which is providing NHLers who are above replacement level at a solid rate. Where the players flame out doesn't really matter to me. I don't see the significant value difference in a Timashov flaming out in the AHL while holding a 50 man contract spot, rather than someone we didn't sign from or 90 man reserve list at the same age.

I'd also add, every player we've picked in the 2nd round could probably play in the AHL. I mean, Korshkov is in the KHL, and Rasanen is playing there next year. Only 2 of the 6 OHLers drafted after Matinen were signed to ELC's. I'll go through the one's on Middleton later, but a bunch of people picked in the 4th or later aren't signed.

 

[BM14]

Replace Cecil with Lindsay.

 

[Leaf Fans]

I think this is true of long successful organizations, but you can't operate with a constant brain drain and zero continuity.

I am not sure I understand? How does losing Hofford affect the consistent existence or operation of the Leafs. He was under contract, the Leafs would have known/granted permission to him to leave and went to one of Dubas' name in his book. As Hofford is known as an old school scout I think Arizona is thinking Hofford + Chayka = Dubas.

 

[93LEAFS]

What's your take on drafting the past 3 years and its direction going forward?

I thought the drafting was fine, not worthy of the extreme praise people give it, or the bashing it gets now that Mark has left the organization. I expect a quality drafting team to beat the average return in their pick ranges. I don't expect constant home-runs or even hits past the 3rd round. If in 3 years, we pulled 2 legitimate NHLers which is a reasonable expectation given how players are progressing in the 31-60 range, given that we had 4 picks, I think that is solid drafting. Dermott looks like a top 4 defender (although we need to see him vs that type of usage) and I feel Grundstrom is on track to be a solid top 9 foward that can be the grinding and a goal scoring component. Rasanen and Korshkov are significantly longer shots, but I also wouldn't completely write them off. I liked the Joseph Woll pick, and hope he can take a sizable step forward.

I didn't like the values on this years draft. I preferred Bokk at 25, but am fine with Sandin at 29. I wasn't a fan of the overage plays in round 2 and 4, and I don't think SDA has a solid chance of being an NHLer. Although, transitional drafts can always be strange, so it wouldn't be fair to heavily judge this class when such dramatic turnover happened about a month before the draft.

 

[arrbez]

Leafs should have fired him after his drunken golf cart hit and run incident.

 

[Kiwi]

All I know is I really disliked our 2016 & 2017 drafts and loved our 2015 & 2018 drafts. Obviously, not including our 1st Rd picks...

I thought 2018 was pretty sketchy, I've got some concerns about Durzi and SDA, Hollowell before the 6th or 7th round is straight up mind bending as well

I don't have a lot of love for any of the last 3 drafts outside of the 1st round

 

[cupcrazyman]

what does Hunter have to do with this? he's been gone for a while now. Anyway, not going to miss someone who's best known for getting a DUI

DUI ? That would be Dale Hunter

 

[Crysis]

I thought 2018 was pretty sketchy, I've got some concerns about Durzi and SDA, Hollowell before the 6th or 7th round is straight up mind bending as well

I don't have a lot of love for any of the last 3 drafts outside of the 1st round

I'm in the same boat although I still have high expectations for Korshkov.

 

[Gary Nylund]

It doesn't matter where a player flames out unless you capitalized on the value through trade. I care about what it provides in regards to a return rate to the NHL. I guess you care more about that return rate. In my eyes, all that matters is being successful providing talent to the NHL level. Getting a top 4 defender at 33 is a very good pick. Getting a franchise winger at 4 is also great work.

What I care about is the finished product being good, which is providing NHLers who are above replacement level at a solid rate. Where the players flame out doesn't really matter to me. I don't see the significant value difference in a Timashov flaming out in the AHL while holding a 50 man contract spot, rather than someone we didn't sign from or 90 man reserve list at the same age.

I'd also add, every player we've picked in the 2nd round could probably play in the AHL. I mean, Korshkov is in the KHL, and Rasanen is playing there next year. Only 2 of the 6 OHLers drafted after Matinen were signed to ELC's. I'll go through the one's on Middleton later, but a bunch of people picked in the 4th or later aren't signed.

Makes sense to me.

 

[MyBudJT]

Should be another 3rd round pick...

 

[hockeynorth]

I thought the drafting was fine, not worthy of the extreme praise people give it, or the bashing it gets now that Mark has left the organization. I expect a quality drafting team to beat the average return in their pick ranges. I don't expect constant home-runs or even hits past the 3rd round. If in 3 years, we pulled 2 legitimate NHLers which is a reasonable expectation given how players are progressing in the 31-60 range, given that we had 4 picks, I think that is solid drafting. Dermott looks like a top 4 defender (although we need to see him vs that type of usage) and I feel Grundstrom is on track to be a solid top 9 foward that can be the grinding and a goal scoring component. Rasanen and Korshkov are significantly longer shots, but I also wouldn't completely write them off. I liked the Joseph Woll pick, and hope he can take a sizable step forward.

I didn't like the values on this years draft. I preferred Bokk at 25, but am fine with Sandin at 29. I wasn't a fan of the overage plays in round 2 and 4, and I don't think SDA has a solid chance of being an NHLer. Although, transitional drafts can always be strange, so it wouldn't be fair to heavily judge this class when such dramatic turnover happened about a month before the draft.

Nice post, I agree about the turnover draft. If this draft gives us 1 good player (top 4 d - top 9F), and a fringe guy, then I'd call it a success just based off prep time and a change in the organization. With SDA, I think he has most of the tools needed (his skating is probably average - which isn't great news for such a small player) to surprise and become a top 9 guy if things work out. I view him the same I viewed Bracco at the time. I think if anything though, the Stotts pick has the best chance of making this draft great, because if we can hit on Sandin, and he makes it in a good capacity then we did good. Overall however, I think we've done good in rounds 1-2, been average in 3, and below in 4-7 (giants skew this heavily).