Confirmed with Link: Lindholm + Hanifin to CAL for Hamilton, Fox and Ferland

[GIN ANTONIC]

I don't know that you can look at it that way in terms of trying to place exact value on players at the time of the traded. Canes wanted to make some changes and didn't think Hanifin and Lindholm were worth the money that they'd need to spend on them. IMO, they were right on Hanifin, but wrong on Lindholm. My view was that the Canes brass probably thought the players were of similar value (contracts aside) at the time of the trade, but wanted Fox included because Lindholm and Hanifin were younger and under team control longer.

Anyhow, I see the trade now as:

CGY > Lindholm + Hanifin
CAR > Hamilton, 1 year of Ferland, Jamieson Rees*, Antonni Honka*, and a 2020 NYR 2nd round pick*.

I still think the value favors Calgary, mainly because of Lindholm and the fact that he's younger and under contract longer than Dougie, but also because the * assets above are still unknown. I think the Canes brass are still very happy with this deal though given how Dougie has performed and how the team has performed. They would have been ecstatic with it had they been able to sign Fox though.

* Fox became NYR 2019 2nd round pick (37th OA) and the NYR 2020 2nd round pick (TBD). Canes traded the 37OA in 2019 for the #44 (Rees) and #83 (Honka) in that draft.

I agree in that I think Calgary got great value out of the trade in that they were able to get more team controlled years in Lindholm and Hanifin.

It was a case of both a case of both teams having players of value but not wanting to commit long term to them for the money that they were going to cost.

Carolina took 2 young x 5OA picks who weren't quite developing they way they wanted to and didn't see them fitting in with the team going forward and turned it into a ton of future ammunition and present value in Hamilton (3 years) and Ferland (1 year).

Like you said how these picks end up or what the borg does with them will be the deciding factor on Carolina's side but you can't argue with the results the team has gotten so far.

 

[Fig]

I think that trade was a perfect example of a trade that was great for both teams. The only situation that was slightly mismanaged was Ferland, but only slightly (Remember, we made the ECF in part because we own-rentaled him), and in the end they chose Dzingel over him in UFA. Getting Fox was good, as well, because even though he wanted to play for the Rangers, the Canes acted quickly and got two high 2nds for him. Dougie is Dougie and Lindholm is Lindholm; to me, that's a wash. Both uber-talented and both will be fixtures for their teams for a long time. I'm still high on Hanifin, as well, and think he'll bloom some more in Calgary than people expect as guys like Giordano hang it up.

If I may pry, would you say that overall you felt it was fair at the time of the trade and the value has been fair since then?

I've also been wondering if the issue is perception rather than pure value. As in, I wonder if the issue is that the value isn't bad, but the Canes keep kicking the can down the road whereas perhaps after 2 seasons, they want more players who are closer to joining the roster sooner (0-2 seasons from today) rather than later (3-5 seasons from now including waiting for drafting).

At the time of the trade, I recall one of the greatest positives at the time of the trade for Carolina was that the trade immediately strengthened the Canes' roster in a way that was expected to exceed that of the Flames roster. Canes got to enjoy the superior talent on the roster immediately and also had an excellent scratch card in Fox for the future. The Flames (prior to any games played) sat in a situation where many felt the value was fair, but the Flames had taken on way more risk than Carolina did as the talent infusion wasn't expected to be as good as Carolina and no futures to manage risk in case Lindholm and Hanifin didn't click. Since the trade, Carolina has lost the roster talent advantage and has converted their soonish future to much further futures. If the Canes had received a young recent first rounder with potential (ie: Kinda like where TT was at prior to acquisition and flourishing in Carolina) for Fox rather than the two seconds, would the perception be improved for the Canes overall for this trade tree?


EDIT: Oh, in general, I wasn't implying that Carolina lost the trade. I agree with you guys that I think that Calgary/Carolina both won the trades and that circumstance wise, both sides were dealing with things that aren't as clear cut as much other typical trades.

I was also curious to the perception of the trade and values placed on some of the pieces. Since the beginning I feel like it was well known that the trade would swing back and forth in making Calgary/Carolina look good. But I'm also wondering if the current pendulum swing doesn't seem as far for Carolina right now if you guys had more NHL roster talent or blue chips/A prospects waiting to make the jump vs the picks/prospects currently in hand.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

If I may pry, would you say that overall you felt it was fair at the time of the trade and the value has been fair since then?

I've also been wondering if the issue is perception rather than pure value. As in, I wonder if the issue is that the value isn't bad, but the Canes keep kicking the can down the road whereas perhaps after 2 seasons, they want more players who are closer to joining the roster sooner (0-2 seasons from today) rather than later (3-5 seasons from now including waiting for drafting).

At the time of the trade, I recall one of the greatest positives at the time of the trade for Carolina was that the trade immediately strengthened the Canes' roster in a way that was expected to exceed that of the Flames roster. Canes got to enjoy the superior talent on the roster immediately and also had an excellent scratch card in Fox for the future. The Flames (prior to any games played) sat in a situation where many felt the value was fair, but the Flames had taken on way more risk than Carolina did as the talent infusion wasn't expected to be as good as Carolina and no futures to manage risk in case Lindholm and Hanifin didn't click. Since the trade, Carolina has lost the roster talent advantage and has converted their soonish future to much further futures. If the Canes had received a young recent first rounder with potential (ie: Kinda like where TT was at prior to acquisition and flourishing in Carolina) for Fox rather than the two seconds, would the perception be improved for the Canes overall for this trade tree?

Sure, but that requires finding the right fit. Getting Fox to sign would have been the best case scenario. Converting him into a top tier forward prospect would have been great too, but he basically made it known that he was going to play for NYR and NYR had no reason to give up a good young player. So Canes had to go get the best offer they could. We were all surprised to get 2 high 2nds for him seeing as our hands were more or less tied.

I was happy with the trade at the time and happier with it now. I like the mix of having the high end impact of Hamilton and a butt ton of high end futures to work with going forward. I would have preferred to get something for an expiring Ferland but a much needed long playoff run in exchange is just fine with me.

The difference of where Carolina as a franchise was 2 years ago vs today is remarkable. Went from one of the most depressing and dismal outlooks to one of the youngest and most promising in the league. With the way Dundon and the org are handling things there's no reason to think it won't only build on that.

 

[MinJaBen]

At the time I thought Calgary came out slightly better than the Canes on value. Now, I still think that, though the results of the draft picks is still to be determined and could end up flipping that around. However, while overall value is important to consider, I am extremely happy with what we got out of the trade and I think Calgary should be as well, so I think overall I'd say the trade was a win-win as both teams got what they wanted.

 

[Fig]

Sure, but that requires finding the right fit. Getting Fox to sign would have been the best case scenario. Converting him into a top tier forward prospect would have been great too, but he basically made it known that he was going to play for NYR and NYR had no reason to give up a good young player. So Canes had to go get the best offer they could. We were all surprised to get 2 high 2nds for him seeing as our hands were more or less tied.

I was happy with the trade at the time and happier with it now. I like the mix of having the high end impact of Hamilton and a butt ton of high end futures to work with going forward. I would have preferred to get something for an expiring Ferland but a much needed long playoff run in exchange is just fine with me.

The difference of where Carolina as a franchise was 2 years ago vs today is remarkable. Went from one of the most depressing and dismal outlooks to one of the youngest and most promising in the league. With the way Dundon and the org are handling things there's no reason to think it won't only build on that.

How much of your fanbase's perception on the trades is based on the ability to be patient? As you mentioned, the Canes outlook for mediocrity was essentially a foregone conclusion a few seasons back. No major expectation during the season for the roster, nor for the talent coming down the pipeline (frustration free anyways). Major props to you guys for sticking at it as fans btw. VS now, you guys are suddenly are watching the development of the most talented roster you've seen in a long time and there's still more coming down the pipeline (albeit a bit further along). Would it be fair to summarize that prior to these trades, it was a meh roster and a meh talent pipeline? Now the roster is much improved and the currency required to continue building this roster to the point of contending for the cup is major improved?

Because from Calgary's side, I think I get it. In 2015, everything was blah. Roster was garbage that was projected to compete for the Connor McDavid sweepstakes and there was serious problems with our talent pipeline in ensuring the roster didn't bottom out. Rather than scorch earth rebuild and aim for CMD or Eichel, ownership mandate was compete for playoffs. After the 2015 playoffs, Treliving has continued to do an amazing job (IMO, some Flames fans don't like him) in upgrading the roster yearly and ensuring we have talent in the pipeline to look forward to. I mean, there are times perhaps where we wondered what life would have been like if we had drafted in 2015 (Flames were rumored to be interested in Chabot prior to trading the pick for Dougie and plenty of fans look at Barzal and wonder what life would be like in that alternate reality) so I am wondering if you guys are kinda in the same stage of fandom revitalization as perhaps we Flames fans were in 2015-2017 where overall, there's no care about the alternatives to the trade because you are super happy with the track your team is on?

 

[Unsustainable]

I always thought it came down to Ferland in the trade, Hamilton is what you hope Noah was going to develop to.

Right now though, Hamilton > Lindholm + Noah

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Right now though, Hamilton > Lindholm + Noah

I'm sure Calgary doesn't see it that way though.

Given age and contracts, as I said earlier, I still think valuewise, the trade favors Calgary. Of course, we don't know what our "unknowns" will turn into, nor do we know if the team will re-sign Dougie, which is why I think that.

Still think the Canes are happy with the deal though, regardless of that.

 

[Unsustainable]

I'm sure Calgary doesn't see it that way though.

Given age and contracts, as I said earlier, I still think valuewise, the trade favors Calgary. Of course, we don't know what our "unknowns" will turn into, nor do we know if the team will re-sign Dougie, which is why I think that.

Still think the Canes are happy with the deal though, regardless of that.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

How much of your fanbase's perception on the trades is based on the ability to be patient? As you mentioned, the Canes outlook for mediocrity was essentially a foregone conclusion a few seasons back. No major expectation during the season for the roster, nor for the talent coming down the pipeline (frustration free anyways). Major props to you guys for sticking at it as fans btw. VS now, you guys are suddenly are watching the development of the most talented roster you've seen in a long time and there's still more coming down the pipeline (albeit a bit further along). Would it be fair to summarize that prior to these trades, it was a meh roster and a meh talent pipeline? Now the roster is much improved and the currency required to continue building this roster to the point of contending for the cup is major improved?

Because from Calgary's side, I think I get it. In 2015, everything was blah. Roster was garbage that was projected to compete for the Connor McDavid sweepstakes and there was serious problems with our talent pipeline in ensuring the roster didn't bottom out. Rather than scorch earth rebuild and aim for CMD or Eichel, ownership mandate was compete for playoffs. After the 2015 playoffs, Treliving has continued to do an amazing job (IMO, some Flames fans don't like him) in upgrading the roster yearly and ensuring we have talent in the pipeline to look forward to. I mean, there are times perhaps where we wondered what life would have been like if we had drafted in 2015 (Flames were rumored to be interested in Chabot prior to trading the pick for Dougie and plenty of fans look at Barzal and wonder what life would be like in that alternate reality) so I am wondering if you guys are kinda in the same stage of fandom revitalization as perhaps we Flames fans were in 2015-2017 where overall, there's no care about the alternatives to the trade because you are super happy with the track your team is on?

I really don't know. We had some young relatively unproven talent in Slavin, Pesce, Aho, TT and then some good veterans like Faulk and Staal but nothing high end that you could build a franchise around. It was all mainly complimentary pieces. Maybe it's because none of those young guys were highly touted 1st round picks and sort of came out of nowhere. Lindholm and Hanifin WERE the two blue-chipper 5OA guys who were supposed to be difference makers but they just weren't trending that way.

I mean, Lindholm was fine and was a pretty good player but it looked like he kind of hit a ceiling and wasn't going to be more than a 2nd/3rd line guy who could play a good all around game and get 50 points. Like those players are good and every team wants them but not at 5th overall.

Hanifin showed glimpses of great play but he was just so raw because he'd never really been coached before. He always was just the best player on his team and had these natural tools and abilities so he could do whatever he wanted. In the NHL that wasn't the case and his ability to read plays, be in position, etc was severely lacking.

The trade hasn't worked out the way we all had envisioned it ( I don't mean that in a bad way), but the Canes were able to parlay them into pieces that have made sense and improved the team. Dougie has just been a beast and is probably the best defesneman the Hurricanes franchise has ever had. Slavin is obviously great as well but plays a different game. I think it comes down to the fact that the Canes fans trust the GM borg to make the right moves so the fact that they have all these young talented prospects and abundance of picks just gives them the ammunition to go out and keep improving the team. We haven't had that faith basically ever before. It feels nice.

 

[DaveG]

So I said at the time of the trade it all comes down to what happens with Fox, and I still stand by that, though now that's moved to what all happens with the picks we got for Fox.

The trade is so far great from Calgary's end, they got the high end forward they needed to play a top line role and he's exceeded all expectations so far. Hanifin is still a work in progress but may still work out.

Canes got Dougie which speaks to how well it's working on the Canes end. Ferland walked after having a huge start to last year. Fox was also going to walk but they played the situation perfectly to get ANY return, much less the one they did.

Rees is looking like a stud so far
Honka isn't putting up a ton of points this year but is still productive, and given that he has significantly worked on his D I get the sense GMBC is more than happy with that.
This years 2nd looks like another top 40 pick as well... until we go all New England Patriots again and turn pick 40 (as of now) in to pick 50 and an early 3rd, which we then turn in to a late 3rd, and a 4th, and still end up with 3 of the guys that were in the conversation for the 2nd again like last time.

Part of me sadistically hopes this turns in to another epicly large trade tree that still has moving pieces 30 years later like the Lindros deal did.

 

[bleedgreen]

Lindholm is one of their top forwards and Hanifin has taken a legit step forward for them. Dougie equaling both of them isn’t even close.

And I’m saying that with the full knowledge that Dougie may be one of the best offensive defenseman the organization has ever had.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

So I said at the time of the trade it all comes down to what happens with Fox, and I still stand by that, though now that's moved to what all happens with the picks we got for Fox.

The trade is so far great from Calgary's end, they got the high end forward they needed to play a top line role and he's exceeded all expectations so far. Hanifin is still a work in progress but may still work out.

Canes got Dougie which speaks to how well it's working on the Canes end. Ferland walked after having a huge start to last year. Fox was also going to walk but they played the situation perfectly to get ANY return, much less the one they did.

Rees is looking like a stud so far
Honka isn't putting up a ton of points this year but is still productive, and given that he has significantly worked on his D I get the sense GMBC is more than happy with that.
This years 2nd looks like another top 40 pick as well... until we go all New England Patriots again and turn pick 40 (as of now) in to pick 50 and an early 3rd, which we then turn in to a late 3rd, and a 4th, and still end up with 3 of the guys that were in the conversation for the 2nd again like last time.

Part of me sadistically hopes this turns in to another epicly large trade tree that still has moving pieces 30 years later like the Lindros deal did.

There are enough pieces already in play that it might. It’d take all three major NHLers (Hamilton, Lindholm, Hanifin) walking via free agency to break the chain. From there it’s still plenty of picks and prospects (Rees, Honka, and next year’s guy).

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Lindholm is one of their top forwards and Hanifin has taken a legit step forward for them. Dougie equaling both of them isn’t even close.

Hamilton: 30 points

Lindholm+Hanifin: 31 points

“Isn’t even close” seems like hyperbole, it’s only a one point difference!

EDIT: but what you’re not considering - Dougie’s doing it at a fraction of the cost!

 

[bleedgreen]

Hamilton: 30 points

Lindholm+Hanifin: 31 points

“Isn’t even close” seems like hyperbole, it’s only a one point difference!

EDIT: but what you’re not considering - Dougie’s doing it at a fraction of the cost!

Cmon. Look at his production last year and you know theyre having a rough year so far. That’s a convenient sample size to use for this argument. He’s a complimentary player with guys who aren’t playing well.

Dougie is also unlikely to be such a high scoring guy consistently as well. Maybe goals, but pts overall is a crapshoot playing with us.

 

[garnetpalmetto]

So I said at the time of the trade it all comes down to what happens with Fox, and I still stand by that, though now that's moved to what all happens with the picks we got for Fox.

The trade is so far great from Calgary's end, they got the high end forward they needed to play a top line role and he's exceeded all expectations so far. Hanifin is still a work in progress but may still work out.

Canes got Dougie which speaks to how well it's working on the Canes end. Ferland walked after having a huge start to last year. Fox was also going to walk but they played the situation perfectly to get ANY return, much less the one they did.

Rees is looking like a stud so far
Honka isn't putting up a ton of points this year but is still productive, and given that he has significantly worked on his D I get the sense GMBC is more than happy with that.
This years 2nd looks like another top 40 pick as well... until we go all New England Patriots again and turn pick 40 (as of now) in to pick 50 and an early 3rd, which we then turn in to a late 3rd, and a 4th, and still end up with 3 of the guys that were in the conversation for the 2nd again like last time.

Part of me sadistically hopes this turns in to another epicly large trade tree that still has moving pieces 30 years later like the Lindros deal did.

You just want to give @tarheelhockey something to do when the three of us hit the retirement home.

 

[My Special Purpose]

Couple of problems here, IMO.

One is the thinking that there has to be a winner and a loser in every trade. The other is, how are we judging winning and losing?

First of all, there is literally no way to ever know if Lindholm would have "blossomed" if he stayed in Carolina. Never will be, either. Hell, there's no way to know if *anything* would have worked out the same way for either team if the trade was never made. I prefer to look at all transactions as part of the "team building" process. In that sense, both Carolina and Calgary got quantifiably better as a result of the trade. In that sense, I'd consider it even.

If you're asking me if I'd do it again, even knowing everything I know, I would. And the reason is Noah Hanifin. IMO, he'll never be anything more than a third-pairing d-man and he'll never QB a No. 1 power-play unit, so he's massively overpaid at $5 million. If you factor in that he's basically a replacement-level player (we lose nothing playing Haydn Fleury in his spot), I think Carolina got the best of the deal.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Lindholm is one of their top forwards and Hanifin has taken a legit step forward for them. Dougie equaling both of them isn’t even close.

And I’m saying that with the full knowledge that Dougie may be one of the best offensive defenseman the organization has ever had.

Lindholm has been and continues to be fantastic for Calgary. I've only watched Hanifin a few times this year, but in those times, I haven't seen the "legit step forward". He looks the same to me and a quick look at metrics and advance stats seem to mesh well with my eye test (limited that it is).

What are you seeing in him that suggests a legit step forward?

 

[bleedgreen]

I’d take Hanifin over Faulk so I don’t know about massively overpaid. He’s fast as hell, young with a ton of experience for his age. I’ve never liked him defensively but he’s playing second pair for them and despite his stats looks a hell of a lot better than he did last year or with us. I think he’s exactly where he should be paid.

 

[bleedgreen]

Lindholm has been and continues to be fantastic for Calgary. I've only watched Hanifin a few times this year, but in those times, I haven't seen the "legit step forward". He looks the same to me and a quick look at metrics and advance stats seem to mesh well with my eye test (limited that it is).

What are you seeing in him that suggests a legit step forward?

He looks a lot more confident carrying the puck and joining the play, he’s put on muscle and is much stronger all around.

He started learning how to play defense his first year with us so I’ve always doubted he’ll be a cerebral defender but he can hustle his way in and out of situations. I myself have been judging him as an 18-21 year old. He’s going to be 25 with 7 years of experience at some point. Skating and size like that will always have a job.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

He looks a lot more confident carrying the puck and joining the play, he’s put on muscle and is much stronger all around.

He started learning how to play defense his first year with us so I’ve always doubted he’ll be a cerebral defender but he can hustle his way in and out of situations. I myself have been judging him as an 18-21 year old. He’s going to be 25 with 7 years of experience at some point. Skating and size like that will always have a job.

Yah, I get that part and agree. Just the times I've seen him, he seems to be making the same sort of mistakes and plays I saw with Carolina. He's facing a bit tougher competition now as a 2nd pairing guy, but I didn't see a legit step forward. As you said though, he is still young for an NHL defenseman.

 

[bleedgreen]

Yah, I get that part and agree. Just the times I've seen him, he seems to be making the same sort of mistakes and plays I saw with Carolina. He's facing a bit tougher competition now as a 2nd pairing guy, but I didn't see a legit step forward. As you said though, he is still young for an NHL defenseman.

He’s perpetually on the wrong side of his guy. That’s all relative though. TT is often the same thing and we think he’s a Selke candidate. Obviously Hanifin is a dman and held to a different standard. I’ve watched parts of many games and have seen him lead the puck out of his zone or follow the play and frankly been impressed. He’s flying and has much more purpose to what he’s doing vs flying by the seat of his pants. That part of the game is much more refined. Maybe it hasn’t produced the points but they have struggled as a team.

 

[Incubajerks]

Who is the game breaking player between them? I'll pick that one and I know who he is.

 

[bleedgreen]

Who is the game breaking player between them? I'll pick that one and I know who he is.

Fox?

I kid. I kid.

Two years from now though it wouldn’t surprise me. He’s already throwing passes as well as Dougie does on the pp (maybe better which is saying something) and overall is more mobile. Small sample of a rookie year but Fox right now has the tools to be talked about as the best player in the deal moving forward. He definitely has the game breaker thing going on too.

 

[Incubajerks]

Fox?

I kid. I kid.

Two years from now though it wouldn’t surprise me. He’s already throwing passes as well as Dougie does on the pp (maybe better which is saying something) and overall is more mobile. Small sample of a rookie year but Fox right now has the tools to be talked about as the best player in the deal moving forward. He definitely had the game breaker thing going on too.

This could very well be true.

 

[vorbis]

re: Hanifin's salary

I've watched a few Calgary games this year and last, and I have to say I'm on the side of those who don't really see a fundamentally different player from his time with Carolina. which would make him still pretty much a young ball of fairly capable hockey play-doh that you hope will eventually be molded into an impact contributor. one of these days, anyway.

and yeah, I think in today's NHL he's probably worth his contract, given his age and the "capabilities" he possesses (avoiding the word 'skill' here by choice). but just because he might be worth his $4.95M AAV, doesn't mean he's the best allocation of said $4.95M AAV. especially for Carolina. and making those sorts of decisions, about how best to allocate cap space, is probably the #1 impetus behind the Canes pursuing this deal in the first place.

until I learn otherwise, I think moving on from Hanifin for a better defenseman fit was the primary goal of the trade, and Lindholm was the price of doing business and getting back Hamilton, a roster player with a ready-made role in Ferland, and a hotshot prospect in Fox.