Sorry for the bump, but I wanted to ask Canes fans something about this trade and I felt it was kinda off topic in the Adam Fox trade thread as my question pushes all the way back to when Calgary/Carolina first pulled this trade off. Hopefully this bump is OK. If not, sorry.
Quote from Adam Fox trade to NYR thread in trade forums:
Confirmed Trade: - [NYR/CAR] Adam Fox for 2019 2nd round pick and 2020 conditional 3rd
Sorry for wall of text:
I mean at face value, it doesn't look great now, but don't forget that part of the value Calgary got afterwards was the fact Treliving acquired RFA with no contracts. He put in effort and worked out really good deals for Lindholm and Hanifin which boosted the value in a way Carolina wouldn't be able to achieve. Their values aren't as good for Calgary/in general if those contracts were higher by about 1-1.5 mil AAV (which apparently were their asks from Carolina when negotiating?). At the time of the trade, I seem to recall most posters thinking it was overall relatively fair in value at the time, slight edge to Carolina. There was also a huge difference in risk. Carolina got the best piece at the time of the trade (Hamilton) and also the best future that could increase in value (Fox). Calgary downgraded by doing a quality for quantity move, and there was risk that Lindholm and Hanifin wouldn't be fits for Calgary. Lots of fans CGY/CAR/Other also felt that depending on fit and projected development, the value would pendulum every other season or so Calgary vs Carolina. I also seem to recall that Ferland burst onto the scene soon after that trade which gave Carolina a big value lead for the trade for a month or so. Dougie took some time to really warm up but wasn't out of place, but within a few months we took the lead when Lindholm took off which we haven't relinquished since then. Hanifin has been pure bonus for us. Not amazing, but steady, which is good enough.
So keeping this in mind, for Carolina fans, if you're willing to entertain my wall of text, I have a few initial questions:
- Was the value CGY > CAR; CGY < CAR or CGY = CAR the moment the trade was made? (Personally, I thought Carolina)
- After the trade, ignoring Calgary, how well did Carolina management do in boosting, maintaining and maximizing value? (I felt like it was decent, but maybe Ferland should have been flipped as a rental vs allowed to walk as UFA)
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Some reasoning: IMO in order of the quality of the pieces since trade:
Lindholm > Hamilton > Hanifin >> Ferland = 2nd = 2nd
Carolina's cost for all the pieces was:
5OA + 5OA
Calgary's cost was:
(2015 15th OA + 2nd + 2nd + RFA negotiation of a long term deal) = Dougie Hamilton
(5th rounder + time) = Micheal Ferland
(3rd rounder + time/realizing quickly that he wasn't going to sign) = Adam Fox
Absolutely, I think Calgary sold high on two pieces and bought low on two pieces. I think your team is doing a little better if you'd flipped Ferland for a late 1st or early 2nd as a rental prior to him walking as UFA, but overall it's not abysmal for how the whole Hanifin/Lindholm thing transpired and negotiations stale mated. Other than the contracts Treliving negotiated with Hanifin/Lindholm increasing their value, I feel like Ferland and Fox's values increased more than the base values of Lindholm and Hanifin; Fox Carolina correctly capitalized on, but Ferland it seems like he flubbed that one slightly. Is that correct? Conservatively assuming Ferland was worth a high 2nd as a rental, if Canes finished the whole tree with the following, do you guys still feel good about the trade?
- Dougie Hamilton + 3x 2nd rounders
I get it if many of us cannot agree. The whole value aspect was confusing as hell because other than perhaps Hamilton (stayed consistent, didn't drop, good fit) and maybe Hanifin (Sans contract adding value, as advertised warts and all, stable enough value didn't drop), everyone else's value kept increasing immediately after the trade (especially Fox which skyrocketed) which was also the part of the confusing debate on how to value the players in the first place. I'm also not taking the subsequent draft effects after this trade, but if you guys think it's worth considering, that's fair too. Overall though, Calgary added to the trade by negotiating two RFA contracts and Carolina added to the trade by negotiating a trade for Fox to NYR.
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I am curious about something though. What did Canes fans think was the ball park value of all the players at the time of the trade? Specifically I was wondering what Fox and Ferland were perhaps worth in the trade. Some of our fanbase felt Fox was worth around a late to mid 1st at the time of the trade which I thought was ridiculous and bonkers. I am thinking he was worth around a condition 2nd (maybe a conditional 1st for an idiot GM) but later 2nd or 3rd at the time of the trade due to the NCAA UFA situation. No matter how I try and slice the trade, the values don't make sense. Calgary sold high on Ferland and Fox, but the values don't make sense.
In the order of value at the time was it:
Hamilton > Lindholm (RFA) > Hanifin(RFA) > Ferland >= Fox?
Assuming:
Hamilton's rights = 1st + 2x 2nd = value of his rights; At time of trade with contract was worth two mid 1sts?
Lindholm (RFA) = Mid 1st + 2nd (No contract)
Hanifin (RFA) = Mid 1st + 3rd (No contract)
Means:
Ferland = 2nd (Worth a 1st at his peak)
Fox = 3rd (Worth a late 1st at his peak, but flight risk?)
Does that seem to make sense value wise or am I way off?
Sorry again for the wall of text.