Likelihood Sens sign both Duchene and Stone

[stempniaksen]

I know the consensus is that Colorado made out like bandits in the Duchene trade while Ottawa got taken to the cleaners in the Karlsson trade...but looking at things as they currently stand, I'm not sure that's the case.

Right now:

Girard > DeMelo (though DeMelo is outscoring Girard this year)
Tierney > Kamenev
Norris > Bowers (debatable)
Balcers > Hammond
San Jose's 2019 1st round pick > Ottawa's 2019 1st round pick
San Jose's 2019 2nd round pick = Nashville's 2018 2nd round pick (too early to tell)

Colorado also received Ottawa's 3rd round pick in 2019
Ottawa could receive up to 2 additional first round picks

Well this is certainly looking at both deals through rose coloured glasses...

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I was wondering if he should be expecting an email from Melnyk any time soon.

 

[Silencio]

I was wondering if he should be expecting an email from Melnyk any time soon.

If they've started talking about an extension we at least know Duchene wants to be in Ottawa, or he would have cut off all talks entirely.

 

[SensFactor]

If they've started talking about an extension we at least know Duchene wants to be in Ottawa, or he would have cut off all talks entirely.

It's a good sign but still premature. Duchene and his agent probably just assessing what Sens are offering. If any low-balling is happening talks will cut off quickly.

 

[coladin]

It just feels hard to imagine us being able to offer the two largest contracts in Senators history simultaneously after we just made slashing payroll a priority for the last 6 months and we have low attendance from fan revolt.

It's not impossible, but the skepticism is warranted and nobody is going to give the organization the benefit of the doubt. I will believe it when the contracts are signed and thats it.

yup

 

[swiftwin]

It just feels hard to imagine us being able to offer the two largest contracts in Senators history simultaneously after we just made slashing payroll a priority for the last 6 months and we have low attendance from fan revolt.

It's not impossible, but the skepticism is warranted and nobody is going to give the organization the benefit of the doubt. I will believe it when the contracts are signed and thats it.

Maybe we slashed Karlsson's salary in order to be able to sign Duchene and Stone?

Also, neither Duchene or Stone are up for huge salary increaces. Stone won't be getting more than a $1.5M increase, Duchene won't be getting more than a $3M increase. That's only slightly more than Zack Smith's salary for both Duchene and Stone.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Maybe we slashed Karlsson's salary in order to be able to sign Duchene and Stone?

Also, neither Duchene or Stone are up for huge salary increaces. Stone won't be getting more than a $1.5M increase, Duchene won't be getting more than a $3M increase. That's only slightly more than Zack Smith's salary for both Duchene and Stone.

Yes, we very well may have slashed Karlsson's salary for this purpose, same with Brassard, Phaneuf, Hoffman, Burrows buyout, etc. As we saw with Karlsson though, it may not be as simple as just the AAV. Are we going to offer NMC's and bonus money here?

If we need to shed more money, it's not likely to come from an untradeable asset like Smith. I'm thinking something useful like Pageau or to a lesser extent Ceci.

If they are attempting to negotiate, then I'm sure that means they're prepared to at least offer something they feel is competitive, but we will have to see where it goes and if Melnyk is expecting them to take discounts or if he's prepared to offer market value.

They haven't earned the benefit of the doubt with fans and media, at least when it comes to money and large financial commitments, so most will remain skeptical until the contracts are signed. I know I will, mainly for the following reasons.

-These are going to be the two largest contracts in Senators history coming down simultaneously with significant bonus money and NMC's likely required.
-Attendance is down because of fan revolt.
-We haven't signed a long term contract of this nature since Bobby Ryan.
-They have to want to stay.
-One staying may depend on the other.
-UFA temptation. They would both be the next best players to hit UFA behind Tavares in many years, it could get out of hand.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Melnyk's comments in the interview with Boro should have erased pretty much all hope of keeping Duchene and Stone. Pretty clear that there is a plan in place that doesn't involve the team keeping them.

Dude flat out said that the team isn't 1, 2 or 3 guys (guess which 3 he was referring to), and went on to say that we will have 15 or 16 rookies or young players next season, along with a ton of picks (from trading those 3 players). Not to mention that he said we're going into a rebuild.

Dorion chatting with Duchene's agent is just covering his ass and that of his boss. Same as when they offered EK a token contract so they could say they gave re-signing him their best shot.

This seems spot on, but we'll have to wait and see. Karl wasn't the only player they did this with. They seemed to have a mostly dog and pony negotiation with Turris where they never intended to negotiate in good faith and were only stalling to use him in the Duchene deal. (Sticking at 5 years).

It doesn't make any sense to finger trading Karl as the most effective way to kick off a rebuild but not do the same for Stone and Duchene.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Yes, we very well may have slashed Karlsson's salary for this purpose, same with Brassard, Phaneuf, Hoffman, Burrows buyout, etc. As we saw with Karlsson though, it may not be as simple as just the AAV. Are we going to offer NMC's and bonus money here?

If we need to shed more money, it's not likely to come from an untradeable asset like Smith. I'm thinking something useful like Pageau or to a lesser extent Ceci.

If they are attempting to negotiate, then I'm sure that means they're prepared to at least offer something they feel is competitive, but we will have to see where it goes and if Melnyk is expecting them to take discounts or if he's prepared to offer market value.

They haven't earned the benefit of the doubt with fans and media, at least when it comes to money and large financial commitments, so most will remain skeptical until the contracts are signed. I know I will, mainly for the following reasons.

-These are going to be the two largest contracts in Senators history coming down simultaneously with significant bonus money and NMC's likely required.
-Attendance is down because of fan revolt.
-We haven't signed a long term contract of this nature since Bobby Ryan.
-They have to want to stay.
-One staying may depend on the other.
-UFA temptation. They would both be the next best players to hit UFA behind Tavares in many years, it could get out of hand.

If they aren't negotiating in good faith, they'll offer something like 8M x 5 or 6 years with little to no bonuses, and without a full NTC. Basically set themselves up to have their cake and eat it too. Little risk on Ottawa's end because Duchene's value as a trade chip for the rebuild goes up tremensously after being locked in on that kind of deal, and we can keep him for another year to avoid handing COL a high pick. Either he signs a bad contract or we can say we offered him 8M and he rejected it as justification for trading him. Similar to how people patch on to the 11M AAV Karl offer even know it was apparently missing bonuses and a full NTC

Honestly, I think a NTC is going to be a huge sticking point. I can't see why Duchene signs without one, and if we are negotiating with the strategic intention of flipping Duchene later on (not saying next year, but eventually), we can't give him a full NTC. If you are a star signing through a rebuild, you need to get assurance that you won't be flipped via a full NTC.

The market for Duchene is pretty clearly set at 8*8.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

If they aren't negotiating in good faith, they'll offer something like 8M x 5 or 6 years with little to no bonuses, and without a full NTC. Basically set themselves up to have their cake and eat it too. Little risk on Ottawa's end because Duchene's value as a trade chip for the rebuild goes up tremensously after being locked in on that kind of deal, and we can keep him for another year to avoid handing COL a high pick. Either he signs a bad contract or we can say we offered him 8M and he rejected it as justification for trading him. Similar to how people patch on to the 11M AAV Karl offer even know it was apparently missing bonuses and a full NTC

Honestly, I think a NTC is going to be a huge sticking point. I can't see why Duchene signs without one, and if we are negotiating with the strategic intention of flipping Duchene later on (not saying next year, but eventually), we can't give him a full NTC. If you are a star signing through a rebuild, you need to get assurance that you won't be flipped via a full NTC.

The market for Duchene is pretty clearly set at 8*8.

Agreed. I'm really interested to see how all this shakes out. Is this more veiled attempts at pretending to try to sign players, or is it a genuine market value offer.

Personally, i just don't see it getting done, and that if they were really serious about it, more traction would have been made by now.

 

[swiftwin]

I had forgotten about that stupid interview with Melnyk.

It's no certainty though. Dorion is still the GM. We know there's obviously friction and a back and forth between Dorion and Melnyk. Dorion sometimes wins (re: not including Ryan in the Karlsson deal). So maybe Dorion can find a way to convince Melnyk to commit to Duchene and/or Stone. Melnyk is obviously not involved in the nitty gritty if he truly believed we had 10 rookies on the team this year, so something like including a NMC is on Dorion's plate. Dorion could very well be the one who refused to give Karlsson the NMC, if he knew Melnyk was forcing the trade to happen. Duchene/Stone might not be the same case.

 

[swiftwin]

Also, I can't see Duchene signing before Stone. I think Stone is a higher priority for the team. They're obviously grooming him to be the captain, putting Tkachuk under his wing, etc. So I don't expect anything on this front until January.

 

[SensFactor]

I'm telling you if we keep winning like this we have a chance to sign both

 

[Sentron5000]

Surprisingly, I think the money will be there to sign here. Trading Ceci would easily cover their raises. With so many young forwards, I would think that Dzingel will be flipped. No one other than Ryan is signed for more than 3 years. That's another 20 million for the goalies, MacArthur, Gaborik, Smith, Boro, Phaneuf, Burrows. That's a lot of money coming off the books.

 

[DylanSensFan]

It's a good sign but still premature. Duchene and his agent probably just assessing what Sens are offering. If any low-balling is happening talks will cut off quickly.

Stone may be Duchene's new Karlsson. Those boys have CHEM-IS-TRY!

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Also, I can't see Duchene signing before Stone. I think Stone is a higher priority for the team. They're obviously grooming him to be the captain, putting Tkachuk under his wing, etc. So I don't expect anything on this front until January.

Did the team put Tkachuk under Stones wing, or did Stone take that step himself?

I don't have any news article in front of me at the moment, but I seem to remember Stone's girlfriend was the one with the idea to have Brady live with them, iirc?

 

[supsens]

If they aren't negotiating in good faith, they'll offer something like 8M x 5 or 6 years with little to no bonuses, and without a full NTC. Basically set themselves up to have their cake and eat it too. Little risk on Ottawa's end because Duchene's value as a trade chip for the rebuild goes up tremensously after being locked in on that kind of deal, and we can keep him for another year to avoid handing COL a high pick. Either he signs a bad contract or we can say we offered him 8M and he rejected it as justification for trading him. Similar to how people patch on to the 11M AAV Karl offer even know it was apparently missing bonuses and a full NTC

Honestly, I think a NTC is going to be a huge sticking point. I can't see why Duchene signs without one, and if we are negotiating with the strategic intention of flipping Duchene later on (not saying next year, but eventually), we can't give him a full NTC. If you are a star signing through a rebuild, you need to get assurance that you won't be flipped via a full NTC.

The market for Duchene is pretty clearly set at 8*8.

If they dont like how much he wants he is gone. What is all this good faith talk? If he dont like the offer he wont sign. You guys have some weird view that offers are fake? EK refused to negotiate he wanted to leave, they offered him 88 million and he didnt even answer, stop pretending some evil guy didn't offer it right, He chose to leave.

the guy hasnt cracked 60 points since 5 seasons ago. You expect a 29 year old 50+ point plaer to get 8 million for 8 years?
How long untill thats a nightmare? Three, four years tops? Now if they feel the need to handout stupid contracts because of a bad trade we can just call it Bobby Ryan take two.

 

[dumbdick]

I hope they both sign, but if not we take the trade returns and cross our fingers.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

If they dont like how much he wants he is gone. What is all this good faith talk? If he dont like the offer he wont sign. You guys have some weird view that offers are fake? EK refused to negotiate he wanted to leave, they offered him 88 million and he didnt even answer, stop pretending some evil guy didn't offer it right, He chose to leave.

the guy hasnt cracked 60 points since 5 seasons ago. You expect a 29 year old 50+ point plaer to get 8 million for 8 years?
How long untill thats a nightmare? Three, four years tops? Now if they feel the need to handout stupid contracts because of a bad trade we can just call it Bobby Ryan take two.

Not negotiating in good faith is like what many have speculated they did with both Karlsson and Turris. Entering a negotiation with no real intention of coming close to market value in one or both of terms+dollar because they want to move on from the player. There's clear evidence or at least circumstantial reasoning to come to the conclusion that they probably did that with both guys.

 

[Icelevel]

Also, I can't see Duchene signing before Stone. I think Stone is a higher priority for the team. They're obviously grooming him to be the captain, putting Tkachuk under his wing, etc. So I don't expect anything on this front until January.

Yeah I was going to make that point too. About tkachuk living with stone. Makes you think they want stone to stay. Or....they just want tkachuk to learn from the best before he is gone?

 

[The Lewler]

I hope they both sign, but if not we take the trade returns and cross our fingers.

Rinse. Repeat?

It does seem like many in this market have been at least somewhat convinced that it is normal for the team to sign emerging star players to at least reasonably market deals during their RFA period, and then trading them away in their late 20's , and starting anew.

There is no reason to believe that if the same conditions are in place for the next few years, that when Chabot and Tkatchuk hit this point in their careers that the same sort of slow distancing and eventual trading of players due to salary won't happen.

We still don't know the end of the story with Stone and Duchene.

But with Stone in particular, if he leaves, we can start to legitimately have a conversation about who the last Sens developed elite player was that we kept through their prime.

From where I'm sitting, there has been a total of 1 elite level NHL player the Sens have kept through their prime, and it's been Daniel Alfredsson. There is no one else.

Hossa was a elite, and was traded away early. I know that's not evidence of money issue.. you could argue Heatley was the start of the money issues.

Spezza is as close as you can get I think. And why did he want to be traded again?

Karlsson was a draft steal, he gone.

Stone was a draft steal, he could be gone.

For what it's worth, I suspect they will try to get Duchene on a shorter deal (6 years) , because they need to be seen spending money on talent somewhere and #1C's are so hard to find and Brown doesn't look like he's heading that way now.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Even if they both want to stay , .. will the Melnyk offer them both market value contracts?

 

[supsens]

Not negotiating in good faith is like what many have speculated they did with both Karlsson and Turris. Entering a negotiation with no real intention of coming close to market value in one or both of terms+dollar because they want to move on from the player. There's clear evidence or at least circumstantial reasoning to come to the conclusion that they probably did that with both guys.

They traded turris because they wanted to go another direction, there is nothing to speculate there and they offered EK a fair value contract. I don't think there is much evidence out there other then him wanting to leave because he did leave without negotiating.

This team needs to tank and suck for a few years (after this year) if they ever want to get out of bubble team territory

 

[Clayonator]

Give em both 8X8 + full NMC

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

They traded turris because they wanted to go another direction, there is nothing to speculate there and they offered EK a fair value contract. I don't think there is much evidence out there other then him wanting to leave because he did leave without negotiating.

This team needs to tank and suck for a few years (after this year) if they ever want to get out of bubble team territory

Lol

Hook, line and sinker.