Likelihood Sens sign both Duchene and Stone

Will the Sens be able to retain Stone and Duchene?


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Acidrain66

Registered User
Jun 13, 2018
445
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I know you want to hang 100% of everything that's wrong with the current state of the Franchise, on the Owner.

That's your opinion and there's no room for anything else, you've solved the mystery as to why Ottawa can't compete with the upper echelon of teams in the NHL ....... its the owner, period.

However you, yourself, pointed out that "since inception" the message from all previous and the current owner is the same

"Small market,money in for money out ,we can only hire coaches that don't have the walk on water ability"

And you rightly point out that the Senators, have "never been over the 75 million dollar threshold in terms of dollars actually spent" but you never make the connection between the market place, and the team's internal budget, that the owner has stated, on numerous times, that it's tied to the revenues received.

I don't know how many times, other posters have correctly pointed out that Ottawa has the lowest corporate base of all Canadian Franchise from which to draw on, so sell corporate suites to ........ and over the last decade we've seen the removal of unsold suites, and the addition of the Club Bell section of the Arena, in an attempt to generate more revenues, from a market, that can (this season) could only generate about 4000 STHs.







I'm not giving the current and previous owners a free pass here, and believe there are ways they could have , and can generate more revenues from this marketplace ..... If you can't put aside your blinding blame everything on the current owner, just for a while, to even contemplate that there are other issues that are impacting on the lower than league average revenues this franchise has, then perhaps you'll be part of the reason(s) the future viability of this franchise could be in jeopardy.

Your solution, seems to be, have a new owner buy the team, and things will change in this market place, instantly.

So companies with corporate headquarters in Toronto and Montreal, are going to shutdown and move their headquarters to Ottawa, and buy corporate suites?

The Leafs are going to allow regional games into their market and TV viewership in going to quadruple and therefore so will the next regional TV rights contract?

The Federal government is going to rewrite the regulations that will allow Federal departments to buy suites and seasons tickets and write them off for business purposes?

Please tell us just how a new owner is going to changes things, without any of the above happening.
Look at Buffalo and Tampa
 

BondraTime

Registered User
Nov 20, 2005
28,598
23,269
East Coast
Via Sens minister of propaganda.....

When the Senators signed Stone to a one-year contract extension to avoid arbitration in August, the two sides weren’t that far apart on a deal. It’s believed the framework of a long-term extension was close, but one of the big issues they had to overcome was structure.
I just can't believe that.

No team, none, would let their superstar sign a deal DIRECTLY to UFA, because of the structure of the contract. If they were close, they make it work. When they do something as stupid as this, they have a Parise situation on their hands.

What benefit do they gain from pushing the signing. Let's go pro and con, and please anyone who can add anything to either column please do.

Pro
- Signed for the 2018-19 season
- Gives more time to hammer a contract out
- Avoids arbitration process

Con
- 1 year deal
- Signed directly to ufa
- Increase his stock to both the Sens and the league, making his cost more
- Pushes the problem a few months down the road
- More time to see how bad this team is, in a year they clearly aren't even attempting to be competitive. What did they expect to happen to show Stone they weren't a Mickey Mouse organization.
- Incident after incident
- A management group with a suspect, at best, track record with signings in charge. They couldn't make it work all summer, what's going to change?
- More time to weigh his options and come to terms with his UFA status, the longer he has this ability to weigh them the worse position for the Sens.
- Time to see what they intend to do with their other UFA's, doesn't seem promising.

I don't see any logic, whatsoever to pushing the signing. None.
 
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topshelf15

Registered User
May 5, 2009
27,993
6,005
Look at Buffalo and Tampa
Nope ,they are spending above what their team,s make.....We have a better TV deal a very large arena that the fans have filled for the most part ,and a brand new multimillion plan for a brand new one ...But we cant compete with them will be his answer
 

Sens of Anarchy

Registered User
Jul 9, 2013
65,237
49,841
If the Sens miraculously sign Stone to a 10 million AAV contract avoiding big signing bonus protection ; say he gets 4M in the 2 work stoppage window years ..
Will there be anything left in Melnyk's purse to sign Duchene? I would guess not . But there is no way Dorion could have known both these guys would need to be signed when he moved out Turris, 1st (see top 5 2019 list) , Bowers, 3rd, Hammond (who we could have used) .. for him
Of course there was always Erik Karlsson.. one of the top players in the league and certainly the best player on the team that could be moved out to get at least some of those futures back even though not of the same quality as we gave up.

This team is being run by someone that looks at things in a very shortsighted window (maybe 20 seconds) , and it is currently in for a long term rebuild , if the franchise lasts long enough to see it through.
 
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topshelf15

Registered User
May 5, 2009
27,993
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If the Sens miraculously sign Stone to a 10 million AAV contract avoiding big signing bonus protection ; say he gets 4M in the 2 work stoppage window years ..
Will there be anything left in Melnyk's purse to sign Duchene? I would guess not . But there is no way Dorion could have known both these guys would need to be signed when he moved out Turris, 1st (see top 5 2019 list) , Bowers, 3rd, Hammond (who we could have used) .. for him
Of course there was always Erik Karlsson.. one of the top players in the league and certainly the best player on the team that could be moved out to get at least some of those futures back even though not of the same quality as we gave up.

This team is being run by someone that looks at things in a very shortsighted window (maybe 20 seconds) , and it is currently in for a long term rebuild , if the franchise lasts long enough to see it through.
Good post,this team loves to paint itself in difficult corners ...
 

Tuna99

Registered User
Sep 26, 2009
14,882
6,937
If they didn't have the money to sign These guys in the summer, they don't have it now.

If Stone and Duch didn't want to sign long term in the summer, nothing has happened to change their Mind.
 

topshelf15

Registered User
May 5, 2009
27,993
6,005
If they didn't have the money to sign These guys in the summer, they don't have it now.

If Stone and Duch didn't want to sign long term in the summer, nothing has happened to change their Mind.
About where it is unfortunately ,the hopes of new ownership coming in before we lose them has dwindled as has my hope of salvaging something from this self created mess
 

AchtzehnBaby

Global Matador
Mar 28, 2013
15,163
9,010
Hazeldean Road
Your solution, seems to be, have a new owner buy the team, and things will change in this market place, instantly.

So companies with corporate headquarters in Toronto and Montreal, are going to shutdown and move their headquarters to Ottawa, and buy corporate suites?

The Leafs are going to allow regional games into their market and TV viewership in going to quadruple and therefore so will the next regional TV rights contract?

The Federal government is going to rewrite the regulations that will allow Federal departments to buy suites and seasons tickets and write them off for business purposes?

Please tell us just how a new owner is going to changes things, without any of the above happening.

A new owner might help out a little on the attendance side. But not corporate sales. This issue is huge and needs a boost.

I wonder if we had a bigger and better marketing team it would help this issue.

elephant-in-the-room.jpg
 
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Spartachat

Registered User
Aug 2, 2016
2,154
2,136
Ottawa
If they didn't have the money to sign These guys in the summer, they don't have it now.

If Stone and Duch didn't want to sign long term in the summer, nothing has happened to change their Mind.

If anything, a lot has happened to make them want to sign less.
 
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topshelf15

Registered User
May 5, 2009
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If anything, a lot has happened to make them want to sign less.
Yep take 2 mil above market ,and suffer for your entire career while we find ways to afford to put a team around you....Or sign with a team that is actually trying to win
 

Acidrain66

Registered User
Jun 13, 2018
445
181
Nope ,they are spending above what their team,s make.....We have a better TV deal a very large arena that the fans have filled for the most part ,and a brand new multimillion plan for a brand new one ...But we cant compete with them will be his answer
I'm referring with new owners who are willing to spend...
 
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Do Make Say Think

& Yet & Yet
Jun 26, 2007
51,166
9,908
I just can't believe that.

No team, none, would let their superstar sign a deal DIRECTLY to UFA, because of the structure of the contract. If they were close, they make it work. When they do something as stupid as this, they have a Parise situation on their hands.

What benefit do they gain from pushing the signing. Let's go pro and con, and please anyone who can add anything to either column please do.

Pro
- Signed for the 2018-19 season
- Gives more time to hammer a contract out
- Avoids arbitration process

Con
- 1 year deal
- Signed directly to ufa
- Increase his stock to both the Sens and the league, making his cost more
- Pushes the problem a few months down the road
- More time to see how bad this team is, in a year they clearly aren't even attempting to be competitive. What did they expect to happen to show Stone they weren't a Mickey Mouse organization.
- Incident after incident
- A management group with a suspect, at best, track record with signings in charge. They couldn't make it work all summer, what's going to change?
- More time to weigh his options and come to terms with his UFA status, the longer he has this ability to weigh them the worse position for the Sens.
- Time to see what they intend to do with their other UFA's, doesn't seem promising.

I don't see any logic, whatsoever to pushing the signing. None.

I think the only way this makes sense, from the team's perspective, is if even Dorion was under the belief that a new owner was incoming and that it would be wise to allow the new owners to decide on the superstar contract.

It's flimsy, but what involving the Senators isn't these days?!
 

pzeeman

Registered User
May 15, 2013
1,227
669
Aylmer
I don't see any logic, whatsoever to pushing the signing. None.

How about increased income certainty?

In August, Melnyk - and by extension Dorion - knew that Lebreton and it's associated revenues were at risk, and didn't want to commit to Mark Stone until they knew they could pay for him. Or the other way - if they had to pay to build a new arena, they couldn't pay Stone upfront and didn't want to squeeze themselves until they knew what was happening.

RendezvousLebreton will likely be officially killed in a couple of weeks. Melnyk's pending expenses and income will be more clear by then.

I had hopes that the announcement would come at noon yesterday. I do agree, though, that the longer this goes on, the less likely it gets.
 

Spartachat

Registered User
Aug 2, 2016
2,154
2,136
Ottawa
Trade deadline is on Feb 25th. PD better get moving! Apart from the 8th year, the players have all the leverage now.
 

BondraTime

Registered User
Nov 20, 2005
28,598
23,269
East Coast
How about increased income certainty?

In August, Melnyk - and by extension Dorion - knew that Lebreton and it's associated revenues were at risk, and didn't want to commit to Mark Stone until they knew they could pay for him. Or the other way - if they had to pay to build a new arena, they couldn't pay Stone upfront and didn't want to squeeze themselves until they knew what was happening.

RendezvousLebreton will likely be officially killed in a couple of weeks. Melnyk's pending expenses and income will be more clear by then.

I had hopes that the announcement would come at noon yesterday. I do agree, though, that the longer this goes on, the less likely it gets.
Sure, that's logical in the sense of not signing him, but not logical in actually looking to get him signed. That's the exact opposite...It shows they can't sign him, as the income situation has only become worse since August, and Stone's price has certainly gone up.
 

danielpalfredsson

youtube dot com /watch?v=CdqMZ_s7Y6k
Aug 14, 2013
16,575
9,269
I just can't believe that.

No team, none, would let their superstar sign a deal DIRECTLY to UFA, because of the structure of the contract. If they were close, they make it work. When they do something as stupid as this, they have a Parise situation on their hands.

What benefit do they gain from pushing the signing. Let's go pro and con, and please anyone who can add anything to either column please do.

Pro
- Signed for the 2018-19 season
- Gives more time to hammer a contract out
- Avoids arbitration process

Con
- 1 year deal
- Signed directly to ufa
- Increase his stock to both the Sens and the league, making his cost more
- Pushes the problem a few months down the road
- More time to see how bad this team is, in a year they clearly aren't even attempting to be competitive. What did they expect to happen to show Stone they weren't a Mickey Mouse organization.
- Incident after incident
- A management group with a suspect, at best, track record with signings in charge. They couldn't make it work all summer, what's going to change?
- More time to weigh his options and come to terms with his UFA status, the longer he has this ability to weigh them the worse position for the Sens.
- Time to see what they intend to do with their other UFA's, doesn't seem promising.

I don't see any logic, whatsoever to pushing the signing. None.

To me, it seems like there were issues with signing bonuses and that Dorion was buying time with the 1 year deal. There had to be some sort of factor that would lead to a potential change, whether he was hoping for some sort of financing that wasn't available in the summer, a change of heart from Melnyk, a change in ownership. I have no idea. That's really the only thing that makes sense if there's any truth to both sides wanting to get something done, and both sides being close.

Because if both sides were supposedly so close, why couldn't they bridge the gap in the summer like every single other team manages to do when they are close with players? That's why I think it had to be signing bonuses.

People forget, but this entire long term extension has dragged out since the summer of 2017. Realistically, Stone should have been signed long term at that point since he had emerged as our best forward and was eligible for a long term extension. Even if Stone wanted to play out the year in an attempt to raise his value, there was probably a number that would have made him reconsider, and I'd imagine it was less than the 8-10 million AAV he's now going to get from somebody.

The lack of extension in 2017 will end up costly the Sens big time. Stone was bargaining from a position of being (on average) a 65 point player under a 75 million dollar salary cap to be (on average) an 88 point player under an 83 million dollar salary cap. Not to mention he's next in line to be the captain of this team, and the team is in a position of weakness having already traded their most popular player in Erik Karlsson. While Stone wanting to play out the season in 2017 mean he probably doesn't sign a 6M-6.5M type contract which would have been his market value at the time, maybe we could have gotten him for 7M. Now according to Garrioch, we're looking at something near 9 million. I would guess probably with greater signing bonuses and up front money than we would have paid in 2017.

The entire thing has been an epic failure that has exposed our organization for either being poorly run, or badly owned. We were either too incompetent to recognize how important Stone was in 2017, and then too incompetent to get a deal done before the 2018 arbitration - or our ownership handcuffed us to a point that a deal was impossible at either one of those times. It might be a combination of both.

I'd like someone show me a more botched contractual situation with a star player. We're acting like people who get payday loans. Everything is about kicking the can down the road and dealing with the big money later on, even if it will cost us significantly more in the mid term. It's either that, or our management completely failed to recognize that Stone's production in 2017 put him in a position to be underpaid based on what he was capable of.

Sure, it's possible Stone was asking for 8x8 or 9x8 in 2017, but it's not probable. Looking at contracts signed in that period, it would be realistic to expect us to be able to have gotten Stone for 7M or less. Huberdeau signed for 5.9, Marchand 6.1. Lucic, Ladd, and Okposo all also signed for 6 or under. While all those players aren't perfect on ice comparable players, they were all producing in a similar range and all but Huberdeau (who had 2 RFA years) were UFA contracts. (Signings - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps) Looking at that, I assume we could have gotten Stone for 6-8 years, at much less than the 8-9 million with huge signing bonuses that it will now cost the team.
 

Tnuoc Alucard

🇨🇦🔑🧲✈️🎲🥅🎱🍟🥨🌗
Sep 23, 2015
8,052
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Simple question,why does EM hold on to the team if he is losing the millions he has claimed??


Well I suspect that he's still turning a profit on operating the CTC, and also really likes being an NHL owner, and the franchises' revenues still are enough to cover the operational costs to run the team, according to the latest Forbes number.

Ottawa Senators on the Forbes The Business of Hockey List


Oh, and the value of the franchise is still increasing
 

Spartachat

Registered User
Aug 2, 2016
2,154
2,136
Ottawa

Tnuoc Alucard

🇨🇦🔑🧲✈️🎲🥅🎱🍟🥨🌗
Sep 23, 2015
8,052
1,914
Look at Buffalo and Tampa

Buffalo's market size is pretty close to Ottawas', but all their revenues are in US dollars, so that's a huge advantage over Ottawa. Plus I suspect their corporate base is much larger than Ottawa's.

Tampa, also have revenues in US dollars, plus their market size is more than double that of Ottawa's.

Both teams are also playing in Arenas located much more closer to the center of their market than Ottawas'.


This is a listing, by rank, of the population of the Metropolitan Areas of all the cities that have teams in the National Hockey League. All populations are 2009 estimates.

1 New York City 19,069,796
2 Los Angeles 12,874,797
3 Chicago 9,580,567
4 Dallas 6,447,615
5 Philadelphia 5,968,252
6 Toronto 5,623,450
7 Miami 5,547,051
8 Washington 5,476,241
9 Boston 4,588,680
10 Detroit 4,403,437
11 Phoenix 4.364,094
12 San Jose 4,317,853
13 Montreal 3.814,738
14 Minnesota 3,269,814
15 St. Louis 2,828,990
16 Tampa 2,747,272
17 Denver 2,552,195
18 Pittsburgh 2,354,957
19 Vancouver 2,328,007
20 Las Vegas (2010) 1,951,269
21 Columbus 1,773,120
22 Raleigh 1,742,816
23 Nashville 1,582,764
24 Calgary 1,230,200
25 Ottawa 1,220,700
26 Edmonton 1,155,400
27 Buffalo 1,124,309
28 Winnipeg 663,617
 

Icelevel

During these difficult times...
Sep 9, 2009
24,787
4,993
Good post,this team loves to paint itself in difficult corners ...
That is true. And then they use the difficult situation (they put themselves in) as an excuse for crap returns on quality players.

But...reminder - stone is signing.
 

The Lewler

GOAT BUDGET AINEC
Jul 2, 2013
4,675
2,815
Eastern Ontario Badlands
This really is an odd one, because I think even Melnyk knows he needs to sign one of them long term.

I can't bet against them moving both of them.

I can't bet against both of them saying nuts to this and hitting UFA.

I also can't bet against the Sens swallowing pain and signing one. But I can't see how they keep both.
 
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