Speculation: Let's Talk Contracts - RFA Qualifying Offers Due June 25th, 2019

[Sabreality]

"Larsson elects not to, however. He has until July 15 to sign his qualifying offer or not."

why did my stomach drop for a sec reading this, could he be interested in walking? want to negotiate a longer deal (please)?

 

[WeDislikeEich]

Somebody would actually have to go through arbitration for the Sabres to get the second buyout window and it can only be used on a player with over a 3.4M salary. I don't think they have anybody worth buying out versus just waiving the dead weight with one year left (meaning Sobotka, Hunwick & maybe Scandella basically). I also would be surprised if anybody actually gets to arbitration.

DotComm can correct any misreading of the CapFriendly breakdown I perused.

I didn’t know that, thanks.

 

[Baccus]

"Larsson elects not to, however. He has until July 15 to sign his qualifying offer or not."

why did my stomach drop for a sec reading this, could he be interested in walking? want to negotiate a longer deal (please)?

Working on a deal and feels it's close so no arb (not sure why he still wouldn't file).

May actually sign QO (seems questionable).

May actually sign overseas.

???

 

[Chainshot]

Working on a deal and feels it's close so no arb (not sure why he still wouldn't file).

May actually sign QO (seems questionable).

May actually sign overseas.

???

Yes.

 

[Chainshot]

Who was the last Sabre to go to arbitration? Tim Kennedy? We know how that turned out for him.

Seriously, though I hope they get ERod and McCabe done before their dates, and probably Ullmark too. Can't see Elie's going well for him either way, but I really couldn't care unless it's crazy and for some reason the Sabres accept it.

I do know that Quinn never forgave Briere for going and winning. It was part of why they didn't negotiate in good faith... and lead us down this merry path.

 

[dotcommunism]

Somebody would actually have to go through arbitration for the Sabres to get the second buyout window and it can only be used on a player with over a 3.4M salary. I don't think they have anybody worth buying out versus just waiving the dead weight with one year left (meaning Sobotka, Hunwick & maybe Scandella basically). I also would be surprised if anybody actually gets to arbitration.

DotComm can correct any misreading of the CapFriendly breakdown I perused.

They do not need to have a player actually go to arbitration to open the second buy-out window. That said, I don't see them buying anyone out.

 

[dotcommunism]

Who was the last Sabre to go to arbitration? Tim Kennedy? We know how that turned out for him.

Seriously, though I hope they get ERod and McCabe done before their dates, and probably Ullmark too. Can't see Elie's going well for him either way, but I really couldn't care unless it's crazy and for some reason the Sabres accept it.

Teams can only walk away from arbitration awards over $3.5M. Even a ridiculous award for Elie would not approach that number

 

[Baccus]

They do not need to have a player actually go to arbitration to open the second buy-out window. That said, I don't see them buying anyone out.

Interesting.

"Buyouts Outside of the Regular Period
Clubs whom have 1 or more arbitration filings may be permitted to perform a buyout outside of the regular window. This gives teams another opportunity to become cap compliant following an arbitration case.
Clubs are permitted to perform a buyout outside the regular period during the 48 hour period beginning on the third day after the final of [CBA 13(c)ii]:
Settlement of the Club's final arbitration case, or
Receipt of the Club's last arbitration award
Requirements:
A buyout can only be performed on a player who was on the clubs reserve list at 3:00pm on the most recent trade deadline
The player must have a cap hit of at least $3,455,438 for the 2019 offseason"

Am I misreading the "after the final of" part because I've had several Gin & Tonics or is there a catch I'm missing? (Both things are extremely likely on my part)

 

[Dingo44]

Teams can only walk away from arbitration awards over $3.5M. Even a ridiculous award for Elie would not approach that number

Well, then, Remi isn't going anywhere.

I'm interested in what all the awards would be, though I'd rather they all sign before it gets that far.

 

[old kummelweck]

What's up with Elie anyway? He should be very happy to get his raise and one-way contract. The guy can't crack the Sabres lineup, does he really think he's going to get a favorable arbitration award or has any leverage of negotiation?

 

[WeDislikeEich]

Interesting.

"Buyouts Outside of the Regular Period
Clubs whom have 1 or more arbitration filings may be permitted to perform a buyout outside of the regular window. This gives teams another opportunity to become cap compliant following an arbitration case.
Clubs are permitted to perform a buyout outside the regular period during the 48 hour period beginning on the third day after the final of [CBA 13(c)ii]:
Settlement of the Club's final arbitration case, or
Receipt of the Club's last arbitration award
Requirements:
A buyout can only be performed on a player who was on the clubs reserve list at 3:00pm on the most recent trade deadline
The player must have a cap hit of at least $3,455,438 for the 2019 offseason"

Am I misreading the "after the final of" part because I've had several Gin & Tonics or is there a catch I'm missing? (Both things are extremely likely on my part)

Here’s what I found looking at the CBA (page 345) -
http://www.nhl.com/nhl/en/v3/ext/CBA2012/NHL_NHLPA_2013_CBA.pdf

It shows different offseason deadlines and this is what it says for the 2nd buyout window -

“Deadline for such Club's Second Buy-Out Period [Only for Clubs with Salary Arbitration Cases]

- “48 hours beginning on the third day after Club's last salary arbitration award or settlement”

So it sounds like you get a 2nd buyout window either way.

I’m sure dotcommunism will be able to better answer though. I am always blown away by his knowledge of the cap/CBA, etc.

 

[dotcommunism]

Interesting.

"Buyouts Outside of the Regular Period
Clubs whom have 1 or more arbitration filings may be permitted to perform a buyout outside of the regular window. This gives teams another opportunity to become cap compliant following an arbitration case.
Clubs are permitted to perform a buyout outside the regular period during the 48 hour period beginning on the third day after the final of [CBA 13(c)ii]:
Settlement of the Club's final arbitration case, or
Receipt of the Club's last arbitration award
Requirements:
A buyout can only be performed on a player who was on the clubs reserve list at 3:00pm on the most recent trade deadline
The player must have a cap hit of at least $3,455,438 for the 2019 offseason"

Am I misreading the "after the final of" part because I've had several Gin & Tonics or is there a catch I'm missing? (Both things are extremely likely on my part)

Note where it says "Settlement of the Club's final arbitration case"? Settling an arbitration case means to come to an agreement subsequent to receiving a ruling. If a player (or team) files for arbitration, then they agree to terms before the hearing, that is a settled arbitration case.

 

[missingmika]

Teams can only walk away from arbitration awards over $3.5M. Even a ridiculous award for Elie would not approach that number

We did walk out on JP Dumonts arbitration.

HoxkeyBuzz is the only place that has the Dmitri Kristich arbitration decision hosted now that I can find:

HockeyBuzz.com - - About Arbitration, Including Text of a Past Decision (Khristich)

Really good read on what goes into arbitration. Article has a cool story about Tommy Salo and how he was in tears when the Islanders said he was their most out of shape athlete which led to goals in the last couple mins of like 18 games.

 

[Buffaloed]

"Larsson elects not to, however. He has until July 15 to sign his qualifying offer or not."

why did my stomach drop for a sec reading this, could he be interested in walking? want to negotiate a longer deal (please)?

I would guess he doesn't want to be trade deadline fodder so he wants a deal longer than 1 year. Sweden might be his Plan B if the Sabres won't commit beyond a year.

 

[WeDislikeEich]

Sure hope they get Elie done before then. That one’s got me pretty worried...

 

[brian_griffin]

From the tweet above from Lance Lysowski, for those like me who don't see tweets open in the post.

NHLPA announced hearing dates as follows:
ERod 7/23 Tuesday
Elie 8/1 Thursday
Ullmark 8/2 Friday
McCabe 8/4 Sunday (b_g: Sunday????)

 

[joshjull]

From the tweet above from Lance Lysowski, for those like me who don't see tweets open in the post.

NHLPA announced hearing dates as follows:
ERod 7/23 Tuesday
Elie 8/1 Thursday
Ullmark 8/2 Friday
McCabe 8/4 Sunday (b_g: Sunday????)

Those are the correct dates

 

[Chainshot]

Why not put the American in on the Sunday before Bank Holiday. It works.

 

[Husko]

Any guess on which comparable each side would be using for our various RFAs, should they reach an actual hearing? Ullmark to me is the truly most intriguing one, how much should a young (promising?) goalie with one mediocre season get?

 

[Buffaloed]

Interesting article in The Athletic.
If a player makes it to an arbitration hearing, history suggests he’s likely a goner

According to 10 years worth of results provided by the NHLPA, 27 players have gone to an arbitration hearing since 2009. Within three years, 21 of those players were on different teams. And often it doesn’t even take that long — 16 of the 27 were on new teams within two years and 13 of the 27 were on new teams within one year.

"“I think you’re going to hold a grudge because — ‘Don’t waste my time,’” explained one GM. “Reasonable people should just be able to make a deal. We both know the range. Let’s see who flinches first but it shouldn’t take that long.”"

 

[DatGuy]

Rodrigues 2-3 (several 3rd line centers got between 25.-3.5 this off season)
McCabe 2-3 (several 5-6 D got 2-3 mil)
Ullmark 1-2 (zero comparables...Cam talbot??)
Elie 700K-1 (a lot of these guys)

 

[brian_griffin]

If my CBA interpretation is correct as re: future RFA / UFA eligibility, I believe McCabe, Ullmark, & ERod will all be UFA in 2021 offseason.
It would be odd to think a potential new CBA next offseason would delay that UFA status. In my view, since the Sabres need to protect McCable, Ullmark and ERod next year in the expansion draft, one or more of the above players may be incented by BUF to sign for two (or more?) seasons (although I think more than 2 seasons is unlikely).

@DatGuy posted salary range estimates. What do others think BUF will and won't do re: term for any of the above 3 players?

Note: Elie will be UFA in 2022 offseason (not that he matters relative to the others, talent-wise).

 

[Husko]

Interesting article in The Athletic.
If a player makes it to an arbitration hearing, history suggests he’s likely a goner

According to 10 years worth of results provided by the NHLPA, 27 players have gone to an arbitration hearing since 2009. Within three years, 21 of those players were on different teams. And often it doesn’t even take that long — 16 of the 27 were on new teams within two years and 13 of the 27 were on new teams within one year.

"“I think you’re going to hold a grudge because — ‘Don’t waste my time,’” explained one GM. “Reasonable people should just be able to make a deal. We both know the range. Let’s see who flinches first but it shouldn’t take that long.”"

Interesting, but do they have a control variable? How long does your non arbitration RFA last? Half the players being gone in two years doesn't sound all that shocking to me. How many of our arbitration eligible RFAs from 2 years ago are still here?

 

[itwasaforwardpass]

The only one out of those filing for arbitration that would bother me if he wasn't here three years from now is Erod.

 

[Buffaloed]

Interesting, but do they have a control variable? How long does your non arbitration RFA last? Half the players being gone in two years doesn't sound all that shocking to me. How many of our arbitration eligible RFAs from 2 years ago are still here?

There's no control. I think the premise of the article, that arbitration often damages the relationship between a player and the team is true. But the way the data is used is incomplete. Custance agreed there were issues with it in the comments section.